UConn women will likely earn the No. 1 ranking in Monday’s Associated Press poll, but are they actually the best team in the country?

[VA Huskie]

If people feel the "field is open", let's qualify that as only 8/9 teams at most can reasonably be expected to win the whole enchilada. Of that 8, I think 3 are shoo-ins for the Final Four-Stanford, SC & UConn.

The other 6 all have shown some inconsistency issues against significantly lesser teams:
NC State had a bad loss against NC. Their other loss against VPI was without Cunnane. They are my 4th Final Four
Texas A&M was getting too much promotion by Carolyn Peck last night. Yes, they have beaten many top 25 teams-all in the 10-25 range and none in the top 9 (KY-#10, AK-#13/#16, MSU-#14, TN-#16, DePaul #19, GA-#22 and Texas #25. They lost to LSU and they haven't played SC. Their most impressive wins are probably over Arkansas 74-73 and 69-67. This team has had too many close games against mediocre teams for me to think they can make a serious run.
Arizona lost to Stanford (no shame) and to Wash St after blowing a big lead. They did crush Oregon last week but to me, they are still too one dimensional with Aari. Cat Reese has stepped up nicely recently but I think UCLA is better talent-wise.
Which brings me to UCLA and as just noted this is a Final Four talented team with a Sweet-16 coach. Close simply cannot manage close games. This team could make a serious run or get beat by a better tactician like Doug Bruno.
Louisville is my 8th possibility, however this team is as reliant on one player as any team-Dana Evans. Their one loss highlights a weak ACC conference and their lack of an inside presence and rebounding makes them susceptible.

Baylor, while looking good against a 35th-40th ranked offensively challenged Texas team last night, simply has inconsistent outside shooting and lacks a true point guard. I'd be impressed if they made the elite 8. I do not think this team can handle good guard play.
The other team I would mention is Maryland-winning the Big10 is nice but again, this team has holes when compared to the elite 8 schools above. Owusa has been very good, I am just not sold on their front court and peripheral supporting players to match up against the others. Plus, Brenda has a way of self imploding when the favorite.

Great analysis. However I don’t think there are any “shoo-ins” for the final four this year. No truly dominant teams.

 

[VA Huskie]

We are the best team right now, hence the number one ranking. Isn't there a tournament to determine the "best" team at the end of the year?

Most years... and hopefully this one!

 

[Cuango]

If people feel the "field is open", let's qualify that as only 8/9 teams at most can reasonably be expected to win the whole enchilada. Of that 8, I think 3 are shoo-ins for the Final Four-Stanford, SC & UConn.

The other 6 all have shown some inconsistency issues against significantly lesser teams:
NC State had a bad loss against NC. Their other loss against VPI was without Cunnane. They are my 4th Final Four
Texas A&M was getting too much promotion by Carolyn Peck last night. Yes, they have beaten many top 25 teams-all in the 10-25 range and none in the top 9 (KY-#10, AK-#13/#16, MSU-#14, TN-#16, DePaul #19, GA-#22 and Texas #25. They lost to LSU and they haven't played SC. Their most impressive wins are probably over Arkansas 74-73 and 69-67. This team has had too many close games against mediocre teams for me to think they can make a serious run.
Arizona lost to Stanford (no shame) and to Wash St after blowing a big lead. They did crush Oregon last week but to me, they are still too one dimensional with Aari. Cat Reese has stepped up nicely recently but I think UCLA is better talent-wise.
Which brings me to UCLA and as just noted this is a Final Four talented team with a Sweet-16 coach. Close simply cannot manage close games. This team could make a serious run or get beat by a better tactician like Doug Bruno.
Louisville is my 8th possibility, however this team is as reliant on one player as any team-Dana Evans. Their one loss highlights a weak ACC conference and their lack of an inside presence and rebounding makes them susceptible.

Baylor, while looking good against a 35th-40th ranked offensively challenged Texas team last night, simply has inconsistent outside shooting and lacks a true point guard. I'd be impressed if they made the elite 8. I do not think this team can handle good guard play.
The other team I would mention is Maryland-winning the Big10 is nice but again, this team has holes when compared to the elite 8 schools above. Owusa has been very good, I am just not sold on their front court and peripheral supporting players to match up against the others. Plus, Brenda has a way of self imploding when the favorite.

I think if you look at the margins of victory, no one is a lock for the final four. Louisville and SC have both had several close calls against teams that are just not very good. Stanford lost to an unranked Colorado team and had single digit margins with Az State, Colorado, and Oregon. Baylor is up and down with several less than impressive wins and we had our hiccup against Ark and could easily have lost the Tenn game. Obviously you have to say UConn, Louisville, Stanford, and SC are the favorites but any of them could very easily lose on a given night. I think this is going to be the most wide open tournament we’ve seen in years.

 

[hussybulldog]

We are the best team right now, hence the number one ranking. Isn't there a tournament to determine the "best" team at the end of the year?

There wasn’t one last year

 

[Majic Hands]

I expressed my thoughts, this way today, to my wife.

Any of the top 10 in the final 4 wouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

Anyone in the 11-20 range on any give day can win the game against anyone in the top 10.

Prop your feet up and enjoy.

My wife and I are going to watch the Seton-Hall & DePaul game tonight.

 

[MSGRET]

I expressed my thoughts, this way today, to my wife.

Any of the top 10 in the final 4 wouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

Anyone in the 11-20 range on any give day can win the game against anyone in the top 10.

Prop your feet up and enjoy.

My wife and I are going to watch the Seton-Hall & DePaul game tonight.

Rooting for DePaul so that it won't hurt UConn when it comes to the NET ratings. With Seton Hall losing to Creighton over the weekend a loss by DePaul would not look good towards both of UConn's wins.

 

[cferraro04]

This year is everybody's guess. With Paige UConn does have more advantage to be #1.

Next year with Azzi in, UConn is clearly the #1.

While I think that Azzi will be a generational talent like Bueckers is. When I look at UConn's chances for being the clear number one team in the country...I see a team that is deep and unparralleled in WCBB. Led by seniors Ododa, Williams and Westbrook UConn will have a abundance of talent and experience. Jrs. Mukarat and Griffin provide additional leadership depth to the rotation.

Then you have all those sophomores making the sophomore leap at the same time...UConn will be off the charts scary good. Paige Bueckers, Aaliyah Edwards, Nika Muhl, Mir McLean and Paith Gabriel will all be contributors to an unprecedented run to the 2022 NCAA tournament.

And, if this isn't enough we have 4 dynamic freshmen coming in (one is already here getting valuable experience).

Starting with #30 Saylor Poffenbarger, a 6'2" guard who is reputed to be able to play multiple positions...namely: shooting guard, small forward and if necessary give minutes at the 4.

Next up is #15 Amari DeBerry a 6'5" forward, Amari is a skilled big who can play back to the basket as well as facing up her opponent. Of course, she will get better as she bulks up and molds her body to a college level forward's body. Bottom line Amari is another 6'5" forward to go with Ododa and Gabriel. She will be able to provide good minutes and give us another skilled big.

Then we have #5 Caroline Ducharme another 6'2" guard whose size will allow her to play multiple positions. Shooting guard, small forward and power forward... She gives us a player who can shoot the basketball from just about anywhere on the floor.

Finally, we will have #1 Azzi Fudd a 5'11" guard who can play both the point and the shooting guard. Azzi is a generational player who is a phenomenal shooter. When she shoots people are surprised when it doesn't go in. It will rain threes next year with Bueckers, Fudd, Ducharme, Poffenbarger, Muhl, Mukarat, Westbrook and Williams all with the ability to make threes. Bueckers is probably going to break the all time assists record dropping dimes to players who will be shooting the lights out.

So, while I agree with the previous poster that Azzi Fudd will mean UConn being number 1...I also think that Azzi will just be one player in a whole cast of players that will help next year's team become a much talked about addition to the legend that is UConn basketball.

 

[bballnut90]

Great analysis. However I don’t think there are any “shoo-ins” for the final four this year. No truly dominant teams.

100%. If any year feels like a crapshoot, it's this one. I recall in 2016 thinking all 4 number 1 seeds were basically Final Four locks since they had a combined 125-1 record excluding head to head games going in the NCAAs. Only Baylor had lost to a non #1 seed, and their regional was essentially at home. And what ended up happening? Only UCONN made the Final Four that year.

This year you have pretty much every top 10 team with a head scratching loss or an unexpected close call to a mediocre team. Combine that with neutral courts all 6 rounds and I expect numerous surprises along the way.

 

[triaddukefan]

I think if you look at the margins of victory, no one is a lock for the final four. Louisville and SC have both had several close calls against teams that are just not very good. Stanford lost to an unranked Colorado team and had single digit margins with Az State, Colorado, and Oregon. Baylor is up and down with several less than impressive wins and we had our hiccup against Ark and could easily have lost the Tenn game. Obviously you have to say UConn, Louisville, Stanford, and SC are the favorites but any of them could very easily lose on a given night. I think this is going to be the most wide open tournament we’ve seen in years.

I see no reason why Louisville would be a favorite to make the Final 4 over NC State.. or even TAMU.

 

[itsasport]

For a team that has been height-challenged for a while. UConn next year could have a rotation of 2, 6'2" guards who can shoot 3s and a front court of 6'3," 6'5," 6'5"

How will that look with arms up or spread on defense?

 

[msf22b]

The totality of the expert's opinions is convincing
Carl A who follows the team, notes that Paige needs help for the team to prevail.
The one thing not completely discussed is: that it is quite likely that Paige will get that help..

-It could come from E; who (seemingly) has been overwhelmed by her physical issues
-It could come from Aaliyah,who is better every game
-It could come from Nika, who has been less effective the last few
-It could come from the Juniors...who certainly have the potential to contribute more fully
-it could come from a return of Anna
-It could come from Aubrey...a few more made outside shots would open possibilities for her....

With so many options for significant improvement, probably more than the other mentioned teams,
UConn has an advantage. It is unlikely that all of them disappoint.

 

[CL82]