UConn vs Louisville

[oldude]

If they shoot like they did they will win. They could have shot with their back to the basket at the 3 point line and it would have gone in!

They won't. Shooting is not something that happens in isolation. It's a whole different ball game when you're at home being guarded by a slower bunch of athletes with no pg, vs playing at Gampel against the best defensive team in WBB, with a couple of lock down defenders like Gabby & Kia.

Louisville shot 65% for the game vs ND. They'll be lucky to come within 20 percentage points of that number vs UConn.

 

[Nuyoika]

I know it’s early, but can someone tell why a lot people think UConn is going to lose to Louisville when all we have to do is shut Durr and Hines-Allen down who combined for 67 points. We have players that can stop Durr and Hines-Allen. I predict Durr is going to jack up so many shots (volume shooter) and Hines-Allen will barley touch the ball due to Pheesa and Gabby.

Because every few years or so UConn has a game or two where they don't beat someone by 10+ and then all of a sudden all the crying about how UConn is bad for the game instantly becomes UConn is beatable. It happened after the 2 point win over Florida St. and it happened after the Tulane game last year. Of course they are beatable; that is just basic math and logic... until the season ends and they have proven that they apparently weren't, which has happened only what 6 times ever for UConn (obviously that's a lot-- more than 50% of UConn's championships but in the grand scheme of the work it takes to get to the national championship unbeaten for everyone else its tough). You know how WCBB fans like to work themselves up in a tizzy, especially when it comes to the Huskies.

 

[Carnac]

Idk...Durr currently leads all division 1 players in 3 point percentage, ABOVE Lou and Kia. Maybe we get her to start throwing them up all game? I wouldn't want the nation's leading 3 point FG leader taking any threes!

Both Durr and MHA have an excellent shot, we won't stop them all. And they have other good shooters too.

Point is Louisville is a great shooting team. They had an amazing night against ND. Good for them. It won't happen against UCONN. If it does Geno will quit (I called it first)

Two thoughts in response to your comments. 1. They will not see the same level or intensity of defense from UConn that they saw from ND.

2. Don't assume that either Durr or MHA will have the same shooting touch that they enjoyed that night. A lid just might be on the rim that evening.

3. Gampel Pavilion is a house of horrors for most teams, as it is a very hard place to get a win. No doubt UConn will be intent on protecting their house.

Win or lose, I'll be very interested in reading the comments from our regulars. I think Louisville needs to worry about UConn more than the Huskies need to worry about them. UConn has played more games against top ranked teams than they have. They're battle tested, and came through victorious every time.

 

[Shorty Dee]

That is assuming Louisville brings their A+ game. At our house, super big assumption.

Regardless if Louisville bring their A+ game, UConn need to have their A+ game. They need to hit their layups, and free throws. They also need to run Durr off the 3 point line. Azura do not need to shoot 3's. UConn need to limit their turnovers, and have more assist than 16. I do not care if UConn win by 1 point or 10 points...a win, is a win. They just need to play UConn ball.

 

[Frenchy]

They won't. Shooting is not something that happens in isolation. It's a whole different ball game when you're at home being guarded by a slower bunch of athletes with no pg, vs playing at Gampel against the best defensive team in WBB, with a couple of lock down defenders like Gabby & Kia.

Louisville shot 65% for the game vs ND. They'll be lucky to come within 20 percentage points of that number vs UConn.

I hope you are right, because so far Uconn has kept all teams below 50% except ND back in April 2011 after a streak of 265 games combined with the ongoing streak of 247 games for a record 513 and 1 (513/1)

 

[oldude]

I hope you are right, because so far Uconn has kept all teams below 50% except ND back in April 2011 after a streak of 265 games combined with the ongoing streak of 247 games for a record 513 and 1 (513/1)

Thanks for the stats. At 513/1 I feel pretty good about my odds of being right.

 

[shizam]

If Louisville has a quick point guard that can drive the lane and control the ball/eliminate turnovers they have a chance, however low. Not concerned about their shooting but their game management.

L’ville’s starting point guard, Arica Carter leads ACC with 2.4 assists to turnover ratio. She plays it safe and doesn’t often split the defense and set up bigs. Not a great ball handler just adequate. She’s small and skinny and slow when moving with the ball but not a slow defender and much improved. A larger guard can kill her posting up given the chance.
Dana Evans can drive effortlessly and dish but she has trouble finishing and getting her shot off cleanly. She’s a good on ball defender. Very short and good speed but not electrifying like Dangerfield. Evans is too young to hurt UConn in this game.

 

[cohenzone]

A few thoughts...

L'ville has never been ranked this high. They are a really solid team. It's more than just jacking up shots for Durr - Walz has been steadily improving the quality of players he's recruiting, and the results he's getting. UCONN played ND VERY close ultimately winning by 9. L'ville slaughtered ND. I mean, it was like watching a UCONN vs. any American Conference Team game - a 33 point smackdown.

Having said that, L'ville's 5 previous games were won by a COMBINED total of 36 points. That's an average MOV of just over 7 PPG. And they played Duke, Ga Tech, NC State, Va Tech and Air Force. It's not like L'ville has been blowing everyone out of the water.

I suspect in the ND game, L'ville played better than usual and ND worse than usual. UCONN has been a particularly BAD matchup for L'ville over the years. While our struggles against big, athletic teams was on full display in the Texas game, L'ville relies more on guard play, and a terrific forward in Hines-Allen. They start a 6'3" center (Feuhring) and bring in 6'4" Shook off the bench. Their freshman PG (Evens) is special, but she comes off the bench.

Durr, Hines-Allen, Feuhring, Arica Carter and Jazmine Jones round out the starting 5. I just don't think we are a good matchup for them. Everything they like to do (guard play, fast pace, etc), we do better, and aside from Durr, are more talented in every position. I'm looking forward to this game and don't believe L'ville can stay with us for a full 40 minutes. I really believe this will be at least a 20 point victory, and it could be way worse than that...

Good post. You’ve been taking TonyC lessons.

 

[cbraarj]

Uconn has 19 losses total at Gampel since it opened 28 years ago!

 

[oldude]

Uconn has 19 losses total at Gampel since it opened 28 years ago!

OK, when was there last loss at Gampel?

 

[Geew1992]

OK, when was there last loss at Gampel?

I believe it was vs ND in 2012/2013. Stewie's freshman year.

 

[oldude]

I believe it was vs ND in 2012/2013. Stewie's freshman year.

Correct. Jan 5, 2013 by one point.