UConn vs Illinois (Final Four)

[DRBackup]

2.5 dogs - BB material

Yup. Absolutely insane.

 

[RuffRuff]

Yup. Absolutely insane.

Let's see how that moves. They are like 5-6 points higher in KP, top rated offense. That arena is going to be heavy Illinois, and very heavy B10. I'd have to think it's 85-90%. Indy is practically a home game for Illinois.

 

[BFieldHusky]

I think there will be a lot of Arizona fans too. They haven't made the Final 4 in 25 years.

 

[UCTitleTown]

Sounds like we need to win Saturday and pull for a revenge game against Arizona so the place won't be a Michigan home game.

 

[DRBackup]

I've said this before about UConn titles and O was correct. With that said, it's a big IF as we need to handle business, but either Arizona or Michigan would be at least an 8 pt. favorite against us. They are playing like we did in 2023 and 2024.

Like Hurley said yesterday, we dominated. This is a different team. This team needs to scratch and claw out wins.

They don't "need" to, per se. That's just how it keeps working out. This team's ceiling is the 25-6 run against Michigan State, or the closing 48-28 run against Duke. And even then, not all the shots were dropping. Or the 30 point win over St. Johns.

 

[UCTitleTown]

They don't "need" to, per se. That's just how it keeps working out. This team's ceiling is the 25-6 run against Michigan State, or the closing 48-28 run. And even then, not all the shots were dropping.

I've been praying for a game where all of our shooters are hot in the same game. Hopefully, that comes vs Illinois. The fact that we shot so poorly from three against Duke and still won is crazy. I thought we'd need to shoot well from three to counter Boozer, but Reed basically matched Boozer and negated his impact, allowing Mullins to be the hero.

Not a lot of mention for Solo who didn't have a great game, but like Demary, he made a couple key buckets late including the steal and layup that got the crowd going.

 

[UCTitleTown]

We beat Illinois by 13 at a "neutral" site earlier this season. How are they a 1.5 pt. favorite? I guess the bookmakers expect it to be an Illinois home game.

 

[Marat]

We beat Illinois by 13 at a "neutral" site earlier this season. How are they a 1.5 pt. favorite? I guess the bookmakers expect it to be an Illinois home game.

Probably that home game and some KP #s. But, in that MSG game Reed and Mullins were coming off injury and non factors . Smith played well.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Not worried about the crowd advantage. I feel like we dodged death last night. We have a new lease on life. If our biggest concern in this game is the crowd factor, I'm really not worried.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

Did not mention UConn. Just said how disappointed he was for his guys blah, blah, blah.

The only thing I’ll say in his defense, is UConn had the possession arrow on a held ball, but you gotta take that risk and hold the ball there. As much as people are killing Boozer, this is obviously what Scheyer drew up and it was a horrible coaching decision.

 

[jibsey]

Karaban post game when asked about the big lead on us said that they weren’t playing defense aggressively enough and turned it up second half . To win in the FF they can’t do that again.

 

[Leebo]

We beat Illinois by 13 at a "neutral" site earlier this season. How are they a 1.5 pt. favorite? I guess the bookmakers expect it to be an Illinois home game.

All of the predictive metrics have Illinois above us based on the total performance throughout the year.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I'm going to need some time to digest that last one before I can think about Illinois. But I can tell you that this going to be as close to a literal home game for Illinois as you can get.

Nah, the final four tickets are allocated to the four teams plus all the bigwigs and celebs and such. I doubt there's much advantage at all.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

All of the predictive metrics have Illinois above us based on the total performance throughout the year.

Duke was a heavy favorite too

 

[RuffRuff]

Nah, the final four tickets are allocated to the four teams plus all the bigwigs and celebs and such. I doubt there's much advantage at all.

Were you in Zona with Purdue?

I think what made that win special last night is after the first half and seeing how dominant Boozer looked, it felt like there was zero answers for him. And I mean zero. Anytime they ran anything through him, he'd either get a bucket or find a very open man, as we were triple teaming him at times.

I don't know what happened in the second half, maybe he tired out or the black eye phased him a bit, but they totally moved away from how they looked to find him with intention. Tarris playing out of his mind was also hard to predict. You could expect good, but he was other worldly great.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Were you in Zona with Purdue?

No. But all four teams travel well. Distance isn't really a factor, ability and willingness to pay is a factor. Michigan is close too. As others point out Arizona hasn't been in forever, so they will be all in. Our biggest problem is complacency from fans who had have opportunities recently.

 

[Leebo]

Duke was a heavy favorite too

You think they shouldn't have been?

 

[RuffRuff]

No. But all four teams travel well. Distance isn't really a factor, ability and willingness to pay is a factor. Michigan is close too. As others point out Arizona hasn't been in forever, so they will be all in. Our biggest problem is complacency from fans who had have opportunities recently.

These large alumni sports crazy fan bases have a way of dominating the scene. Detroit was flooded with Michigan State fans and there was a heavy disparity. I'd expect the same for this one.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

You think they shouldn't have been?

My point is predictive metrics are a crapshoot

 

[jibsey]

The home game angle will have zero effect on us. The “experts” have their heads up their ….as usual. Keep picking against us I’m begging, but I think we will get picked by those experts in this game and if it happens not the next.

 

[HuskyHawk]

The home game angle will have zero effect on us. The “experts” have their heads up their ….as usual. Keep picking against us I’m begging, but I think we will get picked by those experts in this game and if it happens not the next.

Agree. The only thing I worry about is shooting in a football stadium can be really difficult. But this will be Alex's, 3rd time doing it and Solo's ,Jalen and Jayden's second time. That could be an advantage.

 

[IndyLives]

I get bored, so I just kept it going for years. Watching Duke take a knife to the heart was priceless. That was the perfect payback for Duke ending Tate George’s tourney run. Now there is balance in the universe.

Tate George can now finally sleep peacefully at night..it's been too long.

 

[cullaville]

We beat Illinois by 13 at a "neutral" site earlier this season. How are they a 1.5 pt. favorite? I guess the bookmakers expect it to be an Illinois home game.

who cares - the only thing that matters is what happens on the court

 

[Waquoit]

Warde Manuel is on a bit of a roll. Two teams in the Final Four, maybe another today. He learned how to win at UConn.

 

[king conn]

Not worried about the crowd advantage. I feel like we dodged death last night. We have a new lease on life. If our biggest concern in this game is the crowd factor, I'm really not worried.

Yes, all it will mean is we will have alot of cheap seats to pick from on Monday night.

 

[Marat]

Agree. The only thing I worry about is shooting in a football stadium can be really difficult. But this will be Alex's, 3rd time doing it and Solo's ,Jalen and Jayden's second time. That could be an advantage.

Maybe this is what the doctor ordered - they have been so off for the most part that the change to this venue will work better. Keeping fingers crossed !

 

[HuskyHawk]

We beat Illinois by 13 at a "neutral" site earlier this season. How are they a 1.5 pt. favorite? I guess the bookmakers expect it to be an Illinois home game.

But what I see is that UConn +2.5 is also a -125 odds bet. Which tells me all the money went on UConn.

 

[Durks07]

How it started:



How it's going:

 

[Gurleyman]

The only thing I’ll say in his defense, is UConn had the possession arrow on a held ball, but you gotta take that risk and hold the ball there. As much as people are killing Boozer, this is obviously what Scheyer drew up and it was a horrible coaching decision.

The thing about killing a few seconds is that you basically ensure that UConn doesn’t get two more possessions. If we fouled Cam Boozer right away (as we probably should have), we’d have had an outside chance even if he made both. We had a timeout - so we could score try to quickly and foul again with 4 or 5 seconds left. Then get the ball a second time, with a timeout in hand for a missed FT. But by Duke moving the ball, we would have fouled little Boozer with about 6 seconds left and it would have basically ended if he made both. And we ended up leaving two guys wide open, so if that hit ahead pass connects, it’s over, and they avoid shooting pressure foul shots.

The big mistake was they had Sarr (a terrible FT shooter) inbound and be the relief pass after the initial trap, while Evans (85 percent) released into the frontcourt and never touched it. Ross tried to foul Sarr but didn’t get there in time. And Sarr avoided the foul and found Cayden alone in the middle of the floor with a zero risk pass (no defender near the passing lane). At that point, it honestly looked like we screwed up clock management by letting too much time melt on offense (17 seconds before Demary was fouled) and defense (4-5 before fouling Cayden).

But we got the deflection and made a 40 footer.

 

[HuskyHawk]

The thing about killing a few seconds is that you basically ensure that UConn doesn’t get two more possessions. If we fouled Cam Boozer right away (as we probably should have), we’d have had an outside chance even if he made both. We had a timeout - so we could score try to quickly and foul again with 4 or 5 seconds left. Then get the ball a second time, with a timeout in hand for a missed FT. But by Duke moving the ball, we would have fouled little Boozer with about 6 seconds left and it would have basically ended if he made both. And we ended up leaving two guys wide open, so if that hit ahead pass connects, it’s over, and they avoid shooting pressure foul shots.

The big mistake was they had Sarr (a terrible FT shooter) inbound and be the relief pass after the initial trap, while Evans (85 percent) released into the frontcourt and never touched it. Ross tried to foul Sarr but didn’t get there in time. And Sarr avoided the foul and found Cayden alone in the middle of the floor with a zero risk pass (no defender near the passing lane). At that point, it honestly looked like we screwed up clock management by letting too much time melt on offense (17 seconds before Demary was fouled) and defense (4-5 before fouling Cayden).

But we got the deflection and made a 40 footer.

Exactly. Hindsight is clouding things. I was pissed that we failed to foul either of the first two guys and Duke was effectively killing the time we'd need to score after the free throws. It was excellent execution by Duke until it wasn't.