We aren’t dealing with all the grabbing and holding OOC. Thats the difference. I’m fearful Duke may resort to it knowing that the refs will let them. That’s how you beat us. You cheat and get away with it.
I think this angle is a bit overblown. For all the talk about how much they struggled in Big East play, they still went 17-3. In 2024 they were 18-2. They lost twice to St. John's because St. John's is a bad match-up for them - they pressure the ball relentlessly and force them to play a different game than they're used to playing. Having really only one ball-handler you can trust is a bad recipe against that team.
Losses happen in conference play in part because everyone's circling you on the calendar and you're often going on the road. The Creighton loss + other losses that almost happened, were more a function of boredom than anything else. I mean, Creighton has had their number more than any other Big East program and they're perennially one of the most foul-averse teams in the country. Other Big East programs that have given them trouble like Seton Hall and Marquette force a lot of turnovers and have had success for similar reasons as St. John's.
As for Duke, people will point to the free throw discrepancy, but the reality is that they've been the attackers in these games and have earned most of those calls. Duke, by contrast, doesn't foul much and doesn't really get challenged very often in the paint.
The free throws will probably be skewed in Duke's favor again tomorrow - UConn has one of the lowest free throw rates in the country, and Boozer is simply impossible to keep out of the point given how well they space the floor and run their sets.
The good news for UConn is that they've been very good at defending the three (30.6%, good for 27th nationally) and the two (45.7%; 18th nationally). Duke is very similar but slightly worse in both categories.
What gives me hope is that, while St. John's has a similarly effective defense, they play a different style than UConn. They're willing to sacrifice a little bit of two point defense (47.8%; 46th nationally) in order to create more turnovers. But against Duke, they were unable to do either - they forced only 8 turnovers and allowed them to shoot a crazy 59.5% on twos. That, as Pitino put it, was what lost them the game - the inability to stop them.
In other words, they were like a defense in football that made some big plays but gave up a lot of yards. UConn is going to make them earn everything.
If UConn can minimize the free throw disparity, I think they have a decent shot to win this game. But that's easier said than done.
