'UCONN: The One That Got Away'

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Obviously, I think both the Big 10 and the ACC works well/better than the AAC for UCONN in the short term, but that the Big 10 is better in the long run due to the academic lift the Big 10/AAU affiliation would bring. The ACC/AAU scenario is nice but the synergies with the Big 10 and AAU are more significant due to the sheer research scale the Big 10 schools have.

My daughter just finished her D-1 swimming career and between her conference championships at the University of Maryland and the NCAA Championships at the University of Minnesota, I visited both campuses for the first time in the past month. I have been to Rutgers and Penn State recently as well. I am familar with the mid-western Big 1o schools due to visting family out there. There is no doubt in my mind that UCONN is much more aligned to the size and mission of these schools than it is to the ACC's variable size and mission of schools. The ACC's b-ball schools are fearful of UCONN; as is BC for reasons way beyond basketball.

UCONN will not see an ACC invite any time soon - and only in the scenario where an FSU and/or other member departs. UCONN's culture is much more compatible with the northern-dominated Big 10 than it is with the southern/deep south culture.

Herbst has vision and will execute on the vision. It might be 3 years from now, but the Big 10 will be it for UCONN imho.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Obviously, I think both the Big 10 and the ACC works well/better than the AAC for UCONN in the short term, but that the Big 10 is better in the long run due to the academic lift the Big 10/AAU affiliation would bring. The ACC/AAU scenario is nice but the synergies with the Big 10 and AAU are more significant due to the sheer research scale the Big 10 schools have.

My daughter just finished her D-1 swimming career and between her conference championships at the University of Maryland and the NCAA Championships at the University of Minnesota, I visited both campuses for the first time in the past month. I have been to Rutgers and Penn State recently as well. I am familar with the mid-western Big 1o schools due to visting family out there. There is no doubt in my mind that UCONN is much more aligned to the size and mission of these schools than it is to the ACC's variable size and mission of schools. The ACC's b-ball schools are fearful of UCONN; as is BC for reasons way beyond basketball.

UCONN will not see an ACC invite any time soon - and only in the scenario where an FSU and/or other member departs. UCONN's culture is much more compatible with the northern-dominated Big 10 than it is with the southern/deep south culture.

Herbst has vision and will execute on the vision. It might be 3 years from now, but the Big 10 will be it for UCONN imho.

Agreed. I believe B1G is definitely where we need to go. Once we get AAU, we will fit like a glove there. If UVA and UNC are smart, they will join us there and leave the ACC to secondary state schools, private schools, and a commuter college.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

That is a great write-up on the mindset of most UCONN fans. Once ACC invited Louisville commuter college, it cemented itself as a second class conference. Like former president Ohio St Gee said " there is zero chance a school like UL would be invited to the B1G", which pretty much showed the ACC was scared and desperate to keep FSU and Clemson. ACC founding members like UNC and UVA should have held their ground, but they gave in. Louisville will change the ACC forever. It is now just a collection of schools with less and less in common.

B1G is where we belong. We are a flagship state university like many others in the B1G. We are just waiting for the invite.

Although I would prefer the B1G ,(it's been my position from day 1)
I can't really fault the ACC for its choice of Louisville.
Maryland had just left ,a founding ACC member and they were in survival mode.
The addition of Louisville before the Big 12 grabbed them help placate their football powers. They got the Dukes,UNC,and UVA's to hold their noses and accept a perceived inferior academic institution.That moved possibly saved their league. UConn not being AAU ,and too far away for the Big 12 would be available whenever they wanted us. That strategy has worked so far.
They never expected our rapid resurgence in BB.
A successful football season will put pressure on them to act before the B1G puts a crimp in their northern strategy.

 

[CL82]

Agree, but what would you do if Swoffir invited UCONN tomorrow?

Accept and be grateful for it, but I'd still prefer the B1G and I'd still hate the vast majority of ACC schools.

 

[CL82]

These sentiments are the prevailing ones here, but what is perplexing is that the opinion is that the ACC is so awful for taking Louisville (2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Champion and Sugar Bowl Champion) over UConn, and that the Big Ten is wonderful for taking Rutgers (no championships in anything for forever in the past or threatening to win one in forever in the future) over UConn. Both Conferences snubbed UConn if you will, but it's ok to do it for Rutgers, but not Louisville. Neither Rutgers nor Louisville are academic poster children. Perplexing.

I'd like to see UConn in the ACC, and UConn would fit well. There will be another spot at some point in the future. But many here don't want this, so it's a moot point I guess. The worst thing the ACC could do is bring in a whole fan base that doesn't like the ACC to start with.

Can't really equate Rutgers and Louisville academically. RU is a far, far, far better institution.

Stimp, I think you are misreading, perhaps deliberately, what's been said here. The B1G stayed true to its academic identity with the RU pick up. The ACC further abandoned its identity with the Louisville pick up. As to animosity, well the B1G didn't repeatedly raid the Big East, eventually destroying the probably the best basketball conference ever, the ACC did. You guys burned out house down and you wonder why we're not a big fan? Let me be clear, any port will do in a storm, but that doesn't mean we've forgotten what happened.

That aside, the B1G academic vision and strategic positioning is better than the ACC. I'd like our move to be our last and the B1G seems to me to be a more stable home.

 

[CTMike]

A ways back I remember comparing the ACC to a life raft. Man, could we use one right now. I'd be grateful.

The B1G is a luxury yacht filled with food, booze, and s e xually starved, large breasted women.

Both would save your life, but I know which one I'd prefer...

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Let's face it, ACC could have done the right thing and took us instead of UL. By doing so, UL and Cincy would be available to the B12 and they can take both to go to 12. This way, everyone is happy. Instead, ACC did the vindictive thing to screw the B12. As a result, both Cincy and UCONN are left hanging out to dry. There will be more chaos and I hope we find a stable home before then.

 

[Stinger92860]

Let's face it, ACC could have done the right thing and took us instead of UL. By doing so, UL and Cincy would be available to the B12 and they can take both to go to 12. This way, everyone is happy. Instead, ACC did the vindictive thing to screw the B12. As a result, both Cincy and UCONN are left hanging out to dry. There will be more chaos and I hope we find a stable home before then.

This is a good point. While the ACC has made moves to improve their product, each move always included the element of killing the Big East or blocking other conferences from also improving. There has always been a sinister motive to ACC expansion.

 

[NickyNewark]

Gfunk - if you polled the UCONN fanbase, I would wager a confident guess that most would prefer B1G membership. There would be some that would be receptive to playing our traditional basketball rivals again, but I think that after the last snub when they chose to invite Louisville Community College, most UCONN fans gave up on the ACC. Personally, I think UCONN has more in common with the B1G than ACC anyway (strong academic large, flagship public university located in the North). That opinion was only solidified the day that the ACC invited a lousy academic commuter school in a mediocre southern TV market that plays second fiddle within its own state.

You have to think that Delany was looking around the Garden last Sunday and thought that he wanted more B1G basketball in NYC. There's one easy way to do that. I truly believe that football will improve leaps and bounds over the Pasqualoni era (nowhere to go but up, right?) and a B1G invite would send the program's stock through the roof. Just need to get that dang-fangled AAU acceptance, I guess.

F the ACC.

Dooley, I couldn't have said it better myself. I find everyday even at my age hating the ACC more and more....believe me they don't like us either !!! B1G or bust!

 

[NickyNewark]

Ok. I totally understand and agree that the CR that has gone on in the past 20 years or so disrupted the Big East Conference and the ACC is responsible for adding the bulk of the Big East schools that left. I also get the distaste for Gene DeFillippo's comments. I didn't like those either, and they didn't represent the ACC. He had to come back and clarify that. I don't get the BC position still.

I'm used to the diversity of institutions in the ACC. I find that healthy rather than unhealthy. We have football focused schools, basketball focused schools, lacrosse schools, baseball schools, etc. I find that if everyone were the same, it would be boring. What the league has in common are strong athletic departments and new schools with potential to have them. UConn has one. That's why I like UConn. Maryland's has been falling apart. That's why I'm not so unhappy about their departure even given the long history. You would know Rutgers' better than me.

Stimpy you can't be so stupid as to think you understand the NE better than us? The ACC and their questionable moves have soured me and most here. But as long as you've been here you still show an inability to even contribute anything here but anti-RU sentiment?? Whats up with that? I'm sick of it!! Now I even doubt you're sincerity here except as an ACC apologist!! Are you so old that you think you're beyond learning anything here? Or plain arrogant.

 

[NickyNewark]

We would be middle of the pack B1G very quickly and probably were under Edsall's last years. Mich. and OSU would be tough road to hoe, but they are for everyone.

the hottest fire make's the strongest steel.

 

[NickyNewark]

These sentiments are the prevailing ones here, but what is perplexing is that the opinion is that the ACC is so awful for taking Louisville (2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Champion and Sugar Bowl Champion) over UConn, and that the Big Ten is wonderful for taking Rutgers (no championships in anything for forever in the past or threatening to win one in forever in the future) over UConn. Both Conferences snubbed UConn if you will, but it's ok to do it for Rutgers, but not Louisville. Neither Rutgers nor Louisville are academic poster children. Perplexing.

I'd like to see UConn in the ACC, and UConn would fit well. There will be another spot at some point in the future. But many here don't want this, so it's a moot point I guess. The worst thing the ACC could do is bring in a whole fan base that doesn't like the ACC to start with.

Exposed!! For an erudite guy you're pretty stupid.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Dooley, I couldn't have said it better myself. I find everyday even at my age hating the ACC more and more....believe me they don't like us either !!! B1G or bust!

Culturally/stylistically, we fit in better with the mid-west/Big 10 style - more of WYSIWYG, than the ACC's smile to your face/stab you in the back behavior. Slow and steady will win the race so my money is on the Big 10's more thoughtful approach to putting together like institutions (Maryland, RU) that are both large and growing, within large markets, and geographically smart to existing footprint versus the ACC's flash in the pan approach (Syra/Pitt, Louisville). Kind of like the old fashioned Smith Barney approach versus the swindler approach.

 

[SouthronCross]

Stmpy, you are a royal ACC guy and I appreciate that. I don't have anything against UVA since I believe UVA was one of the schools along with UNC, Duke and Wake that wanted the Huskies.

However, comparing B1G taking to ACC taking Louisville is just ridiculous. B1G took RU because they wanted a new market and RU is similar in profile to other B1G schools. RU might suck in everything but they at least fit the profile. UL, on the other hand, has zero in common with ACC schools. They are a horrible academic school in a small market, not on the Atlantic coast, and is the distant second school in a poor state. I understand ACC did it out of fear and desperation. But, realignment is a long term marriage, not picking schools based on what have you done for me lately. Meanwhile, you got a school that fit every single ACC profile and you skipped us and leave us to die in the AAC while commuter schools like UL get a life boat? UL is a pig with a bright lipstick. They fudged their revenue by screwing over city of Louisviile with a shady lease. Did you know YUM center is $800M in debt and the bond that financed it is in junk status?

You can't blame UCONN fans for being bitter. We can't stand the ACC because of its short sightness and acting like the old BE. You guys also gave ND the old BE deal. The worst of it all is you guys let BCU blocked us and let their of an AD bragged about it to the media. Because of these moves, ACC is doomed to fail once sugar daddy ESPiN has no more use for it or when FSU get a better offer elsewhere. The fact that ACC s now made up of bunch of schools with not much in common is not a good thing either. In the ACC, only UVA and UNC are our peers. You can't fault us for wanting to go to a conference with many schools that are similar to us.

If you mean academically, I'd have to add Georgia Tech in there. It is an elite public institution, too.

 

[SouthronCross]

Surely you can see the difference. The B1G adhered to its criteria: AAU, large state flagship, contiguous state. Taking Rutgers is actually positive for us because it makes us contiguous and next in line. It makes the B1G more attractive because a nearby rival is there.

I know its a technicality, but, Nebraska is not AAU, and, the B1G knew it was losing its AAU status before they voted on them. They voted them in, anyway.

And, Nebraska is certainly no academic bellwether of the great plains.

So, the B1G did not 100 percent adhere to their expansion critieria.

The ACC, on the other hand, passed us over 7 times when raiding the Big East, for Miami, Va Tech, BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Notre Dame, then Louisville. They followed no clear strategic plan and abandoned long-standing expansion criteria such as academics, and abandoned Atlantic coast geography to go for Louisville (and Notre Dame, and arguably Pitt). Some ACC schools (BC) expressed outright hostility to us; others (FSU, Clemson) expressed a general antipathy to northerners and basketball schools. Why wouldn't we feel snubbed and disliked?

Everyone here wanted to go to the ACC until a few years ago.

If we joined the ACC, we'd come to like it in time. It has its positives. But it would take some years for the water to pass under the bridge.

Fair enough.

 

[SouthronCross]

Obviously, I think both the Big 10 and the ACC works well/better than the AAC for UCONN in the short term, but that the Big 10 is better in the long run due to the academic lift the Big 10/AAU affiliation would bring. The ACC/AAU scenario is nice but the synergies with the Big 10 and AAU are more significant due to the sheer research scale the Big 10 schools have.

My daughter just finished her D-1 swimming career and between her conference championships at the University of Maryland and the NCAA Championships at the University of Minnesota, I visited both campuses for the first time in the past month. I have been to Rutgers and Penn State recently as well. I am familar with the mid-western Big 1o schools due to visting family out there. There is no doubt in my mind that UCONN is much more aligned to the size and mission of these schools than it is to the ACC's variable size and mission of schools. The ACC's b-ball schools are fearful of UCONN; as is BC for reasons way beyond basketball.

UCONN will not see an ACC invite any time soon - and only in the scenario where an FSU and/or other member departs. UCONN's culture is much more compatible with the northern-dominated Big 10 than it is with the southern/deep south culture.

Herbst has vision and will execute on the vision. It might be 3 years from now, but the Big 10 will be it for UCONN imho.

With all due respect, that is nonsense. If the ACC's original basketball schools were so afraid of UConn, why were they the very ones pushing for you to be invited?

Pitt and 'Cuse might be fearful of you, but, the original ACC basketball schools certainly were not.

 

[SouthronCross]

Agreed. I believe B1G is definitely where we need to go. Once we get AAU, we will fit like a glove there. If UVA and UNC are smart, they will join us there and leave the ACC to secondary state schools, private schools, and a commuter college.

If the ACC were to ever implode, UVA would certainly go to the B1G. The UVA Board of Visitors would never allow their school to be a part of the SEC.

The UNC administration would feel the same way.

However, UNC fans would want the SEC overwhelmingly. They would want annual rivalry games with border states SC, Georgia, and, Tennessee, over OSU, UM, and, MSU. As much as I respect those programs, and, their histories, I have zero desire to venture to Columbus, Ann Arbor, or, East Lansing for games.

We have attendance issues now. If Carolina ever joined the B1G, I believe the fanbase would be in complete revolt, and, you'd REALLY see how empty our venues would be.

 

[upstater]

If the ACC were to ever implode, UVA would certainly go to the B1G. The UVA Board of Visitors would never allow their school to be a part of the SEC.

The UNC administration would feel the same way.

However, UNC fans would want the SEC overwhelmingly. They would want annual rivalry games with border states SC, Georgia, and, Tennessee, over OSU, UM, and, MSU. As much as I respect those programs, and, their histories, I have zero desire to venture to Columbus, Ann Arbor, or, East Lansing for games.

We have attendance issues now. If Carolina ever joined the B1G, I believe the fanbase would be in complete revolt, and, you'd REALLY see how empty our venues would be.

We don't really even need to get into comparisons to address this issue. The attitude toward the ACC is surely the result of BC blackballing UConn, FSU and Clemson aligning against it, Cuse adding its 2 cents that it would like to see UConn die. This should explain everything. It's not a matter of judging UConn worthy or not.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I was going to expand and sugarcoat this, but the Virginia guy is a dense piece of work.

I've known plenty of wahoos over the years and I still have my doubts that stimpy is a real wahoo. At a minimum he is nothing like any hoo that graduated from Thomas Jefferson's grand academic institution at any point prior to 1995.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

With all due respect, that is nonsense. If the ACC's original basketball schools were so afraid of UConn, why were they the very ones pushing for you to be invited?

Pitt and 'Cuse might be fearful of you, but, the original ACC basketball schools certainly were not.

Let me clarify - the smaller/basketball schools (Wake, BC, Miami, Virginia, GaTech, NC State perhaps) for varying reasons along with Pitt and Syracuse and Notre Dame (basketball-only) and who now have voting rights would not vote in UCONN. I agree that the ACC's basketball pillars (Duke and UNC) would not fear UCONN and would back UCONN in their vote but that is probably it (and probably was it last year when they took in Louisville).

 

[pj]

To stimpy, leagues are athletic confederations only. He doesn't mind if the universities have little in common and despise each other, as long as the sports is good. The ACC does have good sports. But for those who want to be in an athletic conference that is a group of friendly allies who like one another and help one another, the B1G is more attractive.

 

[SubbaBub]

It helps to look at this from the opposite direction.

Would PC vote to add UConn to the NBE? No. Why? Because, it's a bigger better program and a threat. Same for WF, GaTech, NC State, Pitt
Would SH vote to add UConn to the NBE? No. Why? Because, it's a bigger draw within it's own market and a threat. Same for BC, Cuse,
That's 6 of 14 ACC schools. ND is a no because ND is arrogant and only want to play certain schools, UConn isn't one of them.

Miami, Clemson, FSU and VT are No's because they think we can't play FB and don't recruit in New England, NY, NJ. That's 11 no votes.

UNC, Duke, UVA, and UL are the only schools that respect UConn without being afraid. The only way the ACC comes calling is out of desperation or $$$.

The BIG looks at it in a completely different fashion. UConn is a potential market, and an investment in future growth that can pay its own way in TV dollars and in range of the conference mean academically. Nothing that needs to be snapped up immediately, but one of several options that may be considered in the future.

 

[btstimpy]

To stimpy, leagues are athletic confederations only. He doesn't mind if the universities have little in common and despise each other, as long as the sports is good. The ACC does have good sports. But for those who want to be in an athletic conference that is a group of friendly allies who like one another and help one another, the B1G is more attractive.

If you honestly believe this about the Big Ten, your awakening will be more rude than Penn State's has been. As for the ACC, there isn't an atmosphere of universities despising one another anyway, but the sports are very good, likely the best nationally.

 

[btstimpy]

It helps to look at this from the opposite direction.

Would PC vote to add UConn to the NBE? No. Why? Because, it's a bigger better program and a threat. Same for WF, GaTech, NC State, Pitt
Would SH vote to add UConn to the NBE? No. Why? Because, it's a bigger draw within it's own market and a threat. Same for BC, Cuse,
That's 6 of 14 ACC schools. ND is a no because ND is arrogant and only want to play certain schools, UConn isn't one of them.

Miami, Clemson, FSU and VT are No's because they think we can't play FB and don't recruit in New England, NY, NJ. That's 11 no votes.

UNC, Duke, UVA, and UL are the only schools that respect UConn without being afraid. The only way the ACC comes calling is out of desperation or $.

The BIG looks at it in a completely different fashion. UConn is a potential market, and an investment in future growth that can pay its own way in TV dollars and in range of the conference mean academically. Nothing that needs to be snapped up immediately, but one of several options that may be considered in the future.

How UConn could be in a position where many of the former conference mates in the Big East won't support continuing a relationship with UConn makes no sense, and I'm not sure that this is actually the case. It may be paranoia. It is the case with Boston College, but there was bad blood generated when BC left the BE. They are the exception. And the AD involved then has now left.

The ACC will add UConn if the $ makes sense. There won't be any desperation. The only desperation that has occurred was the Big Ten's addition of Maryland and Rutgers. The direct quote from Jim Delaney was "We felt threatened." And Maryland's move was desperate because their athletics department was falling apart due to mismanagement, and the Big Ten sold them on a possible lucrative business venture.

 

[SubbaBub]

How UConn could be in a position where many of the former conference mates in the Big East won't support continuing a relationship with UConn makes no sense, and I'm not sure that this is actually the case. It may be paranoia. It is the case with Boston College, but there was bad blood generated when BC left the BE. They are the exception. And the AD involved then has now left.

The ACC will add UConn if the $ makes sense. There won't be any desperation. The only desperation that has occurred was the Big Ten's addition of Maryland and Rutgers. The direct quote from Jim Delaney was "We felt threatened." And Maryland's move was desperate because their athletics department was falling apart due to mismanagement, and the Big Ten sold them on a possible lucrative business venture.

You are obviously not a history major or reader of newspapers. It takes a certain level of arrogance to be posting on a board where the average poster has a stronger grasp of CR and the history of the BE than some college presidents and media types and it is a strange way to spend ones' free time. We welcome outsiders here because we are not so closed minded, but don't be that guy.

 

[specialisthusky]

How UConn could be in a position where many of the former conference mates in the Big East won't support continuing a relationship with UConn makes no sense, and I'm not sure that this is actually the case. It may be paranoia. It is the case with Boston College, but there was bad blood generated when BC left the BE. They are the exception. And the AD involved then has now left.

The ACC will add UConn if the $ makes sense. There won't be any desperation. The only desperation that has occurred was the Big Ten's addition of Maryland and Rutgers. The direct quote from Jim Delaney was "We felt threatened." And Maryland's move was desperate because their athletics department was falling apart due to mismanagement, and the Big Ten sold them on a possible lucrative business venture.

You need to get out more. There is a world outside of the Acc. I appreciate your support for Uconn to the Acc but am absolutely puzzled by you're lack of understanding of the big ten.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

How UConn could be in a position where many of the former conference mates in the Big East won't support continuing a relationship with UConn makes no sense, and I'm not sure that this is actually the case. It may be paranoia. It is the case with Boston College, but there was bad blood generated when BC left the BE. They are the exception. And the AD involved then has now left.

The ACC will add UConn if the $ makes sense. There won't be any desperation. The only desperation that has occurred was the Big Ten's addition of Maryland and Rutgers. The direct quote from Jim Delaney was "We felt threatened." And Maryland's move was desperate because their athletics department was falling apart due to mismanagement, and the Big Ten sold them on a possible lucrative business venture.

I think there would be desperation if/when the ACC loses its lawsuit with MD (whether it is in the courts or via a settlement that is perceived as a MD win), and/or when two or more schools leave for greener outcomes (FSU, Clemson, VA), or if the P5 shows strong signs of becoming the P4. Imo, 75%, 50%, and 33% chance respectively.

 

[upstater]

How UConn could be in a position where many of the former conference mates in the Big East won't support continuing a relationship with UConn makes no sense, and I'm not sure that this is actually the case. It may be paranoia. It is the case with Boston College, but there was bad blood generated when BC left the BE. They are the exception. And the AD involved then has now left.

The ACC will add UConn if the $ makes sense. There won't be any desperation. The only desperation that has occurred was the Big Ten's addition of Maryland and Rutgers. The direct quote from Jim Delaney was "We felt threatened." And Maryland's move was desperate because their athletics department was falling apart due to mismanagement, and the Big Ten sold them on a possible lucrative business venture.

Seriously, how many times must it be explained to you?

With links even.

There are links of Boehim and Gross being against UConn.

We've also repeatedly talked about some of the best players in BC and Syracuse football AND basketball history coming from Connecticut. Heck, BC's best players in the 1980s were all from Conn., Jay Murphy, John Garris, John Bagley, Michael Adams, etc.

 

[btstimpy]

Seriously, how many times must it be explained to you?

With links even.

There are links of Boehim and Gross being against UConn.

We've also repeatedly talked about some of the best players in BC and Syracuse football AND basketball history coming from Connecticut. Heck, BC's best players in the 1980s were all from Conn., Jay Murphy, John Garris, John Bagley, Michael Adams, etc.

That was when BC and Syracuse played in a league that was only visible north of Washington, DC and east of Pittsburgh. The World has changed for both of them, and they both have access to much larger recruiting areas due to where they both are now playing. It's no longer the case that they have to fight with each other and UConn over 20 kids each year in Connecticut. And UConn can still get its share of them being in the AAC anyway. This is short sighted.

For football anyway they both will be required to recruit in the south if they want to win. UConn will too. In basketball, they can recruit nationally. Boston College in basketball, however, seem to want to develop minor league coaches by throwing them up against the hall of fame coaches in the ACC to see what happens. They tried it with an Ivy League Coach, and they are trying it again with a MAC Coach. Nothing against these coaches, but that is trial by fire. Virginia Tech was doing that. Now they've actually hired an experienced coach from a major conference.

 

[btstimpy]

I think there would be desperation if/when the ACC loses its lawsuit with MD (whether it is in the courts or via a settlement that is perceived as a MD win), and/or when two or more schools leave for greener outcomes (FSU, Clemson, VA), or if the P5 shows strong signs of becoming the P4. Imo, 75%, 50%, and 33% chance respectively.

I'd change those odds to 10%, 5%, and 50% respectively. And on the P5 becoming P4, that will only happen if Texas decides to change conferences causing the Big XII to scatter to other conferences.