Uconn stats post - warning geekish!

[UcMiami]

This is edited down from a post I made on the thread about FTs but thought it might be interesting enough to stand on its own.
OK - just checked the media guide - Uconn records for 3pts attempted and made through the 2011-12 season are:
Made: 281 in 2008-9 - percentage shooting the 3 ranked #10 at 37.3% (after adding in this year)
Attempted: 758 in 2011-12 (ranked somewhere below #11 in percentage made.)

And this years numbers blow away the old records:
Made: 325 - shooting percentage ranks #9 at 37.8% an increase of 44 or 15.7%
Attempted: 859 - an increase over the old record of 101 or 13.3%

Considering you get 50% more points for 3 pointers over 2 pointers the team would have had to shoot 57% for 2 pointers to match the points they got from the 3 point shots. They shot 49.6% overall (great) and cutting out the 3 pointers they shot 896 of 1601 from two land for 56.0%. That is basically a statistical dead heat. But being efficient from 3 does spread the floor and help the whole offense so within reason (and 33% is I think reasonable) the mixture of 3 and 2 pointers is good.

Uconn average points by shot type in 2012-13 based on FTs at 76%, 2 pointers at 56%, and 3 pointers at 38%

Shooting foul (2 FTs) = 1.52 pts., 2 pt attempt = 1.12 pts, 3 pt attempt = 1.14 pts. (rounded Uconn numbers for 2012-13)
Bonus non-shooting fouls (1 &1) = 1.34 pts.
Three point shooting fouls = 2.28 pts. *

Just thought these numbers were very interesting - 3 vs 2 pointer numbers are really the same for this team and not that far below getting fouled.
The above does not take into account 'old fashioned' 3 point plays (or 4 point plays), but those are very hard to plan on, and I think would represent a very small percentage of total field goals.

* the reason fouling a three point shooter is such a disaster! And if you consider that three point shooters probably are higher than average free throw shooters this number may be low!

 

[EricLA]

You and Phil need to get a room...!

 

[DavidinNaples]

Great stats, very geekish but we love it cause we're bored out of season..Good job..!!

 

[DaddyChoc]

You and Philster need to get a room...!

in Vegas

 

[Icebear]

You and Philster need to get a room...!

Not a room, a chalkboard.

 

[Suebird10fan]

Different topic than OP ... but appropriate for a geeky crowd.

It occurred to me today that the Huskies will have a very good shot to eclipse their record of average Margin of Victory next year. From what I can tell top two years are 2002 (35.7 if my math is right) and 2010 (34.9). In fact, I believe those are the top two for any team. This year's MoV was 32.7, third best all time for the Huskies. If the froshies had played all year the way they did at the end, they would have likely outpaced the 2002 team. Add in the bump we will (unfortunately) get from playing in a much weaker conference and I think the chances of setting an all-time record are pretty good.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Though Kelly and Brianna improved their 3-point shooting from last year, there is one major underlying factor and her name is KALEENA, the sophomore who Kara Lawson rightly calls the best shooter in the country.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Thinking about the thread last week in which posters were compared to others, I was likened to UcMiami and Phil, two of our resident stat geeks. What does that make me? Ok, I had a 36-year career in economic statistics, so I guess the shoe fits.

 

[UcMiami]

Thinking about the thread last week in which posters were compared to others, I was likened to UcMiami and Phil, two of our resident stat geeks. What does that make me? Ok, I had a 36-year career in economic statistics, so I guess the shoe fits.

Hey - I have to locate this thread - it must have slipped by me. I will proudly be associated with you MilfordHusky.
SuBirdFan - they may eclipse their margin of victory record, but I think that hinges not on the strength of conference, but more on the quality of the bench play and the MOV against the best teams on the schedule. Since 2000 Uconn has only ever played maybe 6-8 competitive games a year and next year will not be any different. So how the team performs when it is up 30 with ten minutes to play is important - can the bench increase the margin, or does the margin shrink to 20 by the final whistle. And does the team lose a few of those competitive games, or squeak out a 5 point win, or do they extend the lead to 10 points. No surprise that the two best MOV numbers come in undefeated years when they had one (or fewer) games decided by less than 10 points.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Hey - I have to locate this thread - it must have slipped by me. I will proudly be associated with you MilfordHusky.
SuBirdFan - they may eclipse their margin of victory record, but I think that hinges not on the strength of conference, but more on the quality of the bench play and the MOV against the best teams on the schedule. Since 2000 Uconn has only ever played maybe 6-8 competitive games a year and next year will not be any different. So how the team performs when it is up 30 with ten minutes to play is important - can the bench increase the margin, or does the margin shrink to 20 by the final whistle. And does the team lose a few of those competitive games, or squeak out a 5 point win, or do they extend the lead to 10 points. No surprise that the two best MOV numbers come in undefeated years when they had one (or fewer) games decided by less than 10 points.

I just bumped it to the top of the board and couldn't resist tweaking Cam in the process.

It's "Posters who look different but sound the same."

 

[UcMiami]

I just bumped it to the top of the board and couldn't resist tweaking Cam in the process.

It's "Posters who look different but sound the same."

Thanks - I just found it and added my two cents - and liked your tweak as well. Definitely the second definition!

 

[DobbsRover2]

Different topic than OP ... but appropriate for a geeky crowd.

It occurred to me today that the Huskies will have a very good shot to eclipse their record of average Margin of Victory next year. From what I can tell top two years are 2002 (35.7 if my math is right) and 2010 (34.9). In fact, I believe those are the top two for any team. This year's MoV was 32.7, third best all time for the Huskies. If the froshies had played all year the way they did at the end, they would have likely outpaced the 2002 team. Add in the bump we will (unfortunately) get from playing in a much weaker conference and I think the chances of setting an all-time record are pretty good.

The SOS vs MoV connection may be a little overrated, but having an undefeated season definitely is a big factor in bumping the margin, though the undefeated 2008-09 team is not rated among the top 6 for the school and the 1-loss 2002-03 team is not in the top 16. In 2002 UConn had an abnormally low SOS ranking of 19 due to a weaker than usual BEast schedule, but in 2010 the Huskies were #2 in SOS behind only OK (and completely thrashing UTenn's hallowed SOS). MoV gets strongly augmented by some 60+ wins against weaker teams, but a lot of blow-out type games lead to a quicker exit of the starters and a smaller than would be expected margin.

I'm thinking that next year's situation might be ideal conditions for a huge MoV with a mix of some tradition-based local huge mismatches, a core of conference mismatches, and about eight tighter mismatches that will require the starters to put in the great majority of the minutes. NCs are okay, but it's big MoVs that stir the geeky juices of statmeisters.

 

[Phil]

We probably should look at median, not mean. That would reduce the impact of the big blowouts.

 

[DavidinNaples]

When I grow up I want to be like UcMiami, Phil and DobbsRover..!! statistic heaven...lol

 

[UcMiami]

I'm thinking that next year's situation might be ideal conditions for a huge MoV with a mix of some tradition-based local huge mismatches, a core of conference mismatches, and about eight tighter mismatches that will require the starters to put in the great majority of the minutes. NCs are okay, but it's big MoVs that stir the geeky juices of statmeisters.

Highlighted section - So true!!!
I think next years bench will be the driver of MOV. There are disadvantages to such a small roster, but one of the advantages is that what bench there is will likely be very strong and not quite as offensively challenged as in previous years. Our lone freshman is known for her scoring and assists prowess. I am not sure about Pope, but I for one expect great things from Kiah, Morgan, and MoJeff/Banks next year (assuming a starting line of Stef, Stewie, KML, Bria, and MoJeff/Banks.)

 

[UcMiami]

We probably should look at median, not mean. That would reduce the impact of the big blowouts.

Ok, OK, a total knock-out scored! Winner and still champion in the BY geekstakes!