I think going 8-3 down the stretch (losing 3/5 of the marquee games) and 1-1 in the AACT (beating SMU in the 4/5 game, losing to Cincy in the semis) would be enough to tread water.
It would take probably a cumulative 11-2 or better to get well into the top 25 and a protected seed (#4/#5).
If we stumble badly with a combined 7-6, we will probably be on the right side of the bubble, but just barely.
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