What you state certainly makes sense, but it doesn’t track with UConn’s actual experience. If we just look at the 12 year period (2008-2019) outlined in my OP, for which we have data through recruits senior years at UConn, the averages paint a much different picture for a program that has made the FF every single year, so far.
Over that 12 year period, UConn has signed 31 recruits, for an average of 2.58 recruits per year. Of those 31 recruits, 23 provided meaningful contributions as starters or key reserves, for an average of 1.92 per year.
Just about all of the recruits that did not provide meaningful contributions transferred out, typically by the end of their sophomore year, with a couple exceptions. On the positive side, the roster was supplemented by 2 walk-ons (Polly & Tierney) and 3 inbound transfers (Nat, Z & Touly).
The conclusion is that whatever number of recruits Geno and CD feel is optimum, in practice they are bringing in less than 3 per year and playing slightly less than 2.