It's still so early in the season with huge holes in the resumes of some of the top 10 teams. The rankings are still a combination of voter expectations and early on-the-court results.
SU - At first glance, other than the nice win against UF, it looked like the Orange have fed on guppies. But I was surprised to see that they have an RPI of 3 with an SOS of 14. Yeah, I know those numbers are close to meaningless this early on, but their meaningless # looks better than the meaningless numbers of the other top 10.
Since they were the next to move up the ladder, plus how difficult it is the prepare for the spider armed zone D, they're as good a choice as anyone for the top spot at this point in the season. With their first real test Jan 7th against Marquette, they're likely staying atop the polls for the next few weeks. They could conceivably stay there till mid February with all their tough games at home until 2/13 at UL. I was shocked to see #11-Marquette, 14-Pitt 17-GU and 10-UConn all at home till they finally face a ranked team (UL 2/13) on the road.
UK - For example based on the eye test (well through my eyes) not withstanding their loss at IU, UK looks like the strongest team in the field. Considering how young they are, their upside is huge. Their biggest problem come March is their inexperience and youth. With a bucketful of NBA hopefuls, having multiple players who can easily shoot an L out of a W come 1-and-done tournament time. As for raw talent they are off the charts. Getting back to their resume, they have some impressive Ws (KU and UNC) and it took a buzzer beater 3 at a hostile IU arena (WOW that place was rocking! I wish our crowds were half as good.) to send them home with their first L. If Davis could have stayed out of foul trouble and on the floor, UK would still be undefeated. They don't always play smart, but they hard and have some of the most dominating stretches I've seen this season. If it wasn't UK or a Squid coached team, I might actually like them. Instead I enjoy watching them do some wonderful things on the court and get beat by lessor teams.
OSU - Their #2 ranking seems well deserved since they've beating some tough teams and their only loss was at KU w/out their best player. They don't wow you, but are a solid team that executes at a high level. Similar to us, they struggle with some scoring droughts. They don't seem to be a particularly deep team.
Dook - As much as I hate them, their RPI/SOS are strong 2/5, going 2-1 against ranked teams Mich (no longer ranked), KU and the crushing loss to OSU. Their two wins were on a neutral court in Maui and the ugly loss was at OSU. Dook as some talented players, some unlikable and over-hyped ones that fit K's system, but as much as we don't like them, they've taken care of business thus far. Their resume thus far does put them about where they are.
UNC - Is a tough one to slot. They're holding a high ranking much because of their preseason hype and on-paper talent. They've not looked like the prohibited #1 team, but they have a top 10 win over Wisconsin at home, a 1 point loss to KU, a team that has looked like the best team most of the season, but has that WTF loss to an un-ranked UNLV team that looked poised to break into the top 25 before they took their own WTF loss plus a tough road loss against ranked Wisconsin.
Many of the other top 10 are grossly untested.
UL (SOS 137),
Baylor (SOS 235
),
Xavier (113) &
Missouri (212), though seem to pass the eye test. Since all of them are unblemished and UConn has that one bad loss, granted one that took place without what seems to be a very important player, Boatright, it's not a reach to rank our Huskies behind most of these teams.
UConn (9 RPI / 30 SOS) - UConn's resume so far turned out to be a lot better than we thought. FSU, ranked at the time but now out of the top 25 will hopefully work their way back into it and make that W look a lot better than it does now. We do have that one disappointing loss against UCF, which in the end will probably look like one of the stronger mid-majors. But where our #9 or 10 ranking at this moment seems about right is with the eye test. Similar to UNC, you can tell the team has a lot of talented parts, but they're not all playing well and execution on both ends of the floor have a ways to go. I would not be shocked to see our ranking waffle throughout the season. Like SU, our first road game against a ranked team is not until February (2/1 at GU), but unlike SU that game is our first against a ranked conference opponent. I can see them losing before the GU game and dropping into the teens, but I can also see them slowing rise back up as other teams lose between now and February. The most telling stretch will be the last 10 games of the regular season where they will face 6 ranked teams, 5 of which are in the top 15 and one, GU is just outside that at #17. If they finish that stretch well, they'll likely be somewhere in the top 10. If they limp through that stretch like they did last season, they'll need another magical March to play themselves back into one of the a top 3 regional seeds like they did last season.
All in all, I'm okay with where we are. Until after 2/1, UConn's schedule won't have much bearing as far as substantiating a top 10 ranking. If they win most or all of the game leading up to that game, then they'll be in the top 10, having to prove they belong there over the last 10 games. If they lose a few to a bunch of them, then they'll be exposed, drop and will have to make a strong late statement that they've figured it out, got the pieces to fit and are ready for another improbably NCAA tournament run. Of course how the rest of the field does will have a lot to say about where UConn sits in the polls throughout the season. It's inevitable that some of the current top 10 teams will have their share of losses to lesser ranked teams as well. That's why witnessing a greater body of work helps in sorting this out. It's more than just Ws & Ls but how these teams look during those games.