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UConn predictions

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B1G 0.00% - We don't have the cable boxes, we don't have the recruiting grounds for football and we don't have the football tradition even if Diaco turns us around. B1G schools already are giving up Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State games because of Rutgers/Maryland - How can they possibly sell UConn and UVA, etc on top of that?

ACC 10% - I still see the B1G or SEC making one more move. Maybe a NC State gets a B1G invite and a spot opens? You would have to assume the first call would be to WVU though. Unless two teams are plucked, it'll be tough for us. Even at that would you be shocked to see WVU and Cincinnati?

Big12 10% - I've said it here before but I still think there's a possibility the Big12 implodes and we join a leftover Big12 plus the best of the AAC.

AAC 80% - unfortunately this is where we stand. As bad as everything is, the scary thing is that the big 12 is always one phone away from adding Cincinnati and ucf for a title game. At that point, Im bit even sure what we'd do. Try to form a scheduling alliance with the best G5 teams and try and save the hoop program? No clue.
 
RegisteredUconn said:
Of all the realistically available universities, UConn has to be at or near the top of the Big Ten's acquisition list.
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We are. Funny how the OP starts talking about the A-10. Can someone please commit him to an asylum as his avatar insinuates??
 
RegisteredUconn said:
Art, me thinks I detect a tad of energy sucking in your post. ;)
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Not energy sucking, just amazed on how many threads can be started discussing the same subject. I think Fishy is really Nelson and starts these threads to increase ad views. :cool:
 
ConnHuskBask said:
B1G 0.00% - We don't have the cable boxes, we don't have the recruiting grounds for football and we don't have the football tradition even if Diaco turns us around. B1G schools already are giving up Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State games because of Rutgers/Maryland - How can they possibly sell UConn and UVA, etc on top of that?
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Simple. We're required for success in the northeast.
 
It's likely that UConn will be in a P5 conference within 5 years. It may take the full 5 years and happen as a byproduct of another school making a move, but it will happen. And when it does, it will be quick and catch some by surprise. The conference that UConn ends up in will be dictated by actions/inactions in response to the catalyst event. All UConn can do is control what it can control, stay engaged, and position itself for success.

Other Influencers:

Lawsuits The selective exclusion of former BCS schools (among others) is complicated and risky. Lawsuits against the NCAA will continue and have the real potential to spread to P5 conferences. It will take a while, but his scenario may help "push" conferences to broaden inclusion, even if modestly, which would open up opportunities for UConn.

Conference Networks This one area where UConn adds value. While Football may not generate the same return, basketball and other sports would deliver great content for an existing or new conference network.
 
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A point was made on the radio this morning that the power conferences are too dissimilar in their make up right now. Round robin scheduling vs. championship game, strength of OOC schedule, etc. The way the championship plays out over the next few years will dictate which conferences make moves and why. Bunch of greedy, self-absorbed buffoons.
 
ConnHuskBask said:
Yet every move to date would show that premise to be false.
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Ha, I say. Ha. Which P5 owns the Northeast now? Not one of them. Which has UConn as member? Not one of them. Therefore not having UConn prevents you from owning the Northeast. QED.
 
CL82 said:
Ha, I say. Ha. Which P5 owns the Northeast now? Not one of them. Which has UConn as member? Not one of them. Therefore not having UConn prevents you from owning the Northeast. QED.
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What does "owning" the northeast even mean? B1G got the rate it wanted in NYC DMA. Period.

The ACC has more than enough teams that draw in the city.

People keep talking up this mythical owning the northeast, but there are no dollars and cents to that claim or if there was money to be made, it would've been done.
 
CL82 said:
Ha, I say. Ha. Which P5 owns the Northeast now? Not one of them. Which has UConn as member? Not one of them. Therefore not having UConn prevents you from owning the Northeast. QED.
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The B1G and the ACC currently share, somewhat, the Northeast. And those two conferences currently happen to be 4/5 on the P5 scale. Coincidence?
 
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ConnHuskBask said:
What does "owning" the northeast even mean? B1G got the rate it wanted in NYC DMA. Period.

The ACC has more than enough teams that draw in the city.

People keep talking up this mythical owning the northeast, but there are no dollars and cents to that claim or if there was money to be made, it would've been done.
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Nobody knows if that is true or not.
 
In five and 10 years I think UConn will end up in the ACC. The only reason is that Herbst will basically offer up UConn in all sports but football, which will be dropped. The ACC will take UConn hoops and Olympics and football will stop being a scholarship sport. Its pretty obvious that is the direction this is headed and basically the last shot on goal Herbst and whomever the AD is to save UConn athletics.

The B1G could also be willing to do this, maybe moreso, as they need the inventory and credibility the UConn hoops provides.
 
WestHartHusk said:
Nobody knows if that is true or not.
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If you think Delany invited the cesspool that is Rutgers athletics without knowing the rate he wanted and could get, then I don't know what to tell you.

The most historic and second most powerful conference ( behind the SEC) decided to invite Rutgers university based on a hope they could get the rate they wanted.

They knew exactly the effect their decisions were going to have.
 
Kevin Caliendo said:
In five and 10 years I think UConn will end up in the ACC. The only reason is that Herbst will basically offer up UConn in all sports but football, which will be dropped. The ACC will take UConn hoops and Olympics and football will stop being a scholarship sport. Its pretty obvious that is the direction this is headed and basically the last shot on goal Herbst and whomever the AD is to save UConn athletics.

The B1G could also be willing to do this, maybe moreso, as they need the inventory and credibility the UConn hoops provides.
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Sheesh call me oblivious but i had no idea that was obvious?

Any scenario that has UConn dropping football is a long long long shot in my opinion.
 
Let's put all of the "quit playing football" nonsense to bed already. Until the day comes that basketball TV contracts can net UCONN over $20M/yr of revenue, that ain't happening. Basketball-only conferences would mean UCONN having to drop most/all sports, not just football, and let Geno and/or Ollie go because the money wouldn't be enough to pay both of their salaries.
 
Dooley said:
Let's put all of the "quit playing football" nonsense to bed already. Until the day comes that basketball TV contracts can net UCONN over $20M/yr of revenue, that ain't happening. Basketball-only conferences would mean UCONN having to drop most/all sports, not just football, and let Geno and/or Ollie go because the money wouldn't be enough to pay both of their salaries.
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So you are saying that if UConn is not prepared to lose millions of dollars per year on football, it won't be able to pay Ollie's or Geno's salary? Is there going to be logic in one of your posts at some point?
 
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nelsonmuntz said:
So you are saying that if UConn is not prepared to lose millions of dollars per year on football, it won't be able to pay Ollie's or Geno's salary? Is there going to be logic in one of your posts at some point?
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Every time you make this argument, you strictly talk about tv revenue. The AD makes money from other sources and to have this discussion without the specific football data it's impossible.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
So you are saying that if UConn is not prepared to lose millions of dollars per year on football, it won't be able to pay Ollie's or Geno's salary? Is there going to be logic in one of your posts at some point?
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Are you a genius by nature or choice? Find me a basketball-only conference that pays more than $5M/yr and we can talk.

Ollie - $3M/yr
Geno - $2+M/yr

That is $5M/yr in expenses just on head coaches salary. Is your plan going to fire assistant coaches, admin staff, team managers, trainers, equipment personnel, travel coordinators, etc? I can't wait to see Ollie having to call every Memphis area Motel 6 because we had to fire everyone else. Not to mention, see ya Hockey East, field hockey, soccer, baseball, track, football, etc!

UCONN needs to find a home that can help fund its expenses. We are able to stay afloat for a while thanks to exit fees. Once those run out, we will need to find a conference that can pay significantly more than $5M/yr if we want to employ coaches like Ollie and Geno. It's either that or we have to stop funding every single other athletic employee other than Ollie and Geno. The only way to pay those guys is to try like hell to get into a P5 conference. Otherwise, let me introduce you to Fred Hill or Jerry Wainright as that is the type of coach we can hire for 500K/yr.
 
UCONN13KC said:
The B1G and the ACC currently share, somewhat, the Northeast. And those two conferences currently happen to be 4/5 on the P5 scale. Coincidence?
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On what scale is the B1G #4 or#5?

They make more money than any other conference, they have some of the most iconic athletic programs in history as members, they have the model conference network that others are trying to emulate and they are viewed as the best academic conference as a whole.

Do I believe that UConn would be a good add to the B1G? Yes, but stop with the drivel that the B1G NEEDS UConn to be successful. We would be the luckiest bastards on the earth at this point if they decided to invite us
 
bobbyinaz said:
On what scale is the B1G #4 or#5?

They make more money than any other conference, they have some of the most iconic athletic programs in history as members, they have the model conference network that others are trying to emulate and they are viewed as the best academic conference as a whole.

Do I believe that UConn would be a good add to the B1G? Yes, but stop with the drivel that the B1G NEEDS UConn to be successful. We would be the luckiest bastards on the earth at this point if they decided to invite us
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sorry for the fuzzy post. I agree the B1G is premiere. I meant that currently, the football quality is 4 or 5. But again, that is arguable and based on what happened with upsets this week, lots of parity in the P5.
 
No idea. I was optimistic after last April we'd find a new home. But our football program is SO SO spectacularly awful right now that I don't even care anymore. They are so awful you could argue we belong in the AAC until we prove we take the sport seriously. There is little evidence UConn takes football as serious as say a women's basketball regular season game.
 
ConnHuskBask said:
What does "owning" the northeast even mean? B1G got the rate it wanted in NYC DMA. Period.

The ACC has more than enough teams that draw in the city.

People keep talking up this mythical owning the northeast, but there are no dollars and cents to that claim or if there was money to be made, it would've been done.
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Obviously it is mythical because none of the P5 have UConn as a member. Now if one of them did, well then let the owning begin.
 
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The one thing we can't predict is if some other unforeseen domino were to fall. Movement in general is good for us (save for Cinci and UCF joining the Big 12)... But as of now, everything seems completely stalled, which is why I can't see any other outcome besides AAC.
 
5 years, AAC
10 years, B1G

Play the long game.
 
If you were making odds, the AAC would have to be the overwhelming favorite on both a five and ten year timeline.

Personally, I don't see where the outside impetus is coming from to trigger more expansion in this television cycle. All of the conferences seem content to stay where they are and none of them, save the Big Ten, can wring another dollar out of their television benefactors. Given the grant of rights locking down every single program that might be paired with us, the Big Ten is not a realistic option.

I think we have to survive the next decade.
 
Serious questions: Does the current AAC TV contract cover the costs of Ollie's and Geno's contracts? or is the athletic department operationally losing money but staying afloat from the payouts from defections? Would the ACC or B1G would be willing to offer UConn hoops/olympics a better deal than it currently gets from the existing AAC television and tier 3 rights contracts?
 
Kevin Caliendo said:
Serious questions: Does the current AAC TV contract cover the costs of Ollie's and Geno's contracts? or is the athletic department operationally losing money but staying afloat from the payouts from defections? Would the ACC or B1G would be willing to offer UConn hoops/olympics a better deal than it currently gets from the existing AAC television and tier 3 rights contracts?
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1. No
2. There is other revenue than TV but they have to be running in the red.
3. Why would the AAC keep UConn's football program if they moved the basketball programs?

The AAC has UConn's tier 3 game rights so there isn't anything to lose there.
 
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