UConn / Notre Dame Analysis

[doggydaddy]

Overview – Well, here we go again. The first of two regular season meetings with the possibly four (god help us) if they meet in the BE tourney and the NCAA's again. But this year the teams will have a different look. UConn brings back everyone but Hayes and add 3 freshman contributors. Notre Dame loses Peters, Novosel and Mallory and add couple of freshman contributors. One thing stays the same for sure and that is the coaching. Many think that McGraw has the best handle on how to play UConn and Geno is still the best. Both teams will be ready. Here's how I see it.

Players lost – Uconn – Hayes. ND- Peters, Novosel, Mallory
Players added - Uconn – Stewart, Tuck and Jefferson. ND - Loyd, Mabrey, Cable (missed her freshman season)

Match-ups below obviously change during the game. As we know, Doty starts, but Stewart usually gets the minutes. I'm not sure Doty will cover Diggins. It might be Faris or Hartley. But for the sake of this exercise, I will go with these match ups.

PG – Doty 5’10” SR (4.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.5 apg) vs Diggins 5’9” SR (14.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 6.0 apg)

Doty is coming off her best game of the season and according to Geno, the best game of her career. I'm hopeful that this is a sign that Doty will continue to play well. Diggins is playing better as of late after a tough start. She is still a player that can control an entire game and Uconn will have to make her uncomfortable. It will take more than Doty.

AdvantageNotre Dame

SG – Hartley 5’9” JR (9.3 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 3.3 apg) vs Loyd 5’11” FR (12.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.1 apg)

It certainly was a surprise to see Hartley sit after such a great game against Stanford. But as Chris Dailey said, the players have to play a certain way and she wasn't doing that. Maybe it was the long trip. But don't expect a repeat of that against ND. Loyd is a dynamic freshman, but Hartley is a terrific on the ball defender. I doubt Loyd has seen the intense defense that Uconn will bring.

Advantage UConn

SF – Faris 5’11” SR (9.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.9 apg) vs McBride 5’11" JR (15.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.0 apg)
This could be the most fun matchup to watch. McBride is a terrific offensive player but not such a great passer. Faris on the ball defense is fantastic. McBride is strong but Kelly is her match. I keep waiting for Faris to revert to old form on 3 pointers and then she goes 3-3 in her last game. I think the shooting touch is real and that gives her the advantage.

Advantage UConn

PF – M-Lewis SO 6’ (16.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.7 apg) vs Bracker 6’1” JR (7.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.3 apg)

M-Lewis is making her case for 1st team AA. She is now a complete player. If Bracker is on her, it won't be pretty. And M-Lewis won't get tired out covering Bracker. One of the matchups that will kill ND.

Advantage UConn

C – Dolson 6’5” JR (11.9 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 3.3 apg) vs Achonwa 6’3” JR (14.4 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 2.6 apg)
Here are two players that have come into their own. Two if the top post players in the country. Achonwa playing much better than I had thought she would be playing. And Dolson took that next step with her defense of Chiney O. I think that Dolsons size advantage will be the difference.

Advantage UConn

Bench – Uconn - Stewart 6’4" ( 15.2 ppg, 6.7 rpg, .9 apg), Tuck 6’2” (7.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.4 apg), Banks, 5’9” (9.1 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.2 apg), Jefferson 5'7" (3.9 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.8 apg)
vs Wright6’2" (6.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.0 apg), Marbrey 5'11 (4.9 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 2.3 apg), Cable 5'11" (4.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.5 apg)

Total stats off the bench – Uconn – 35.6, 13.5, 6.3. ND – 16.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 4.8 apg

Anytime you have a player like M-Lewis coming off your bench you have an advantage. Now that applied to Stewart. Tuck and Jefferson both looked better the last game. Can it carry over? Marbrey is coming back from an ankle injury and Cable from not playing all last year. No contest here.

Advantage Uconn

Coaching - Geno Auriemma vs Muffet McGraw
Geno is Geno and he has the advantage over everyone. But McGraw is a heck of a coach, and will do a great job in this game in both preparation and in-game adjustments. With so much time between games, Geno will figure out how to disrupt ND's offense.

Advantage UConn (slim margin)

Intangibles – Home court makes a difference. UConn just beating Stanford helps with confidence. ND has recent history on their side.

Advantage UConn

Final analysis – UConn has to value the ball. ND is so dangerous on defense with their steals and that is what jump starts their offense. Both teams are amazing passing teams. They are in the top 3 in assists. Speaking of stats, while they don't tell the entire story, they do give you an indicator of possible future performance. Thanks Meyers.

Scoring
UConn – 86.4 ppg 51.8% FG 40.2% 3pt
Notre Dame – 86.2 ppg 47.1% FG 29.9% 3pt

Defense
UConn – 43.4 ppg 28.5% FG 31% 3pt
Notre Dame – 56.6 ppg 37.6% FG 26.7% 3pt

Rebounding
UConn – 41.1 / Opp 29.8 for a +11.3 ......Offensive rebounds 161 / Opp 134
Notre Dame – 44.3 / Opp 31.2 for a +13.2 ........ Offensive rebounds 212 / Opp 132

Assists/Turnovers
UConn – 21.8 apg / 13.2 tpg … .Opp 23.3 tpg for a +10.1 tpg
Notre Dame – 21.2 apg / 16.1 tpg….Opp 24.3 tpg for a +8.3 tpg

Steals/Blocks
UConn – 12.4 spg / 5.6 bpg
Notre Dame – 13.9 spg / 3.9 bpg

It's interesting to see how close some these stats are. Scoring, Assist, Rebounding. While Uconn's defense looks to be clearly better. And Uconn's shooting is also clearly better. The final stat to put these other statistics in perspective is SOS.

According to Realtime RPI, Uconn 3, ND 26. And we all know that outside the top 20, the competition is weak.

Uconn has several advantages. ND is not a great shooting team and Uconn is a great defensive team. I have the feeling that both Hartley and Stewart will have great games. Uconn also has a size advantage with Dolson, Stewart and Tuck in the paint. Geno will find a way to take advantage of it.

ND HAS to turn Uconn over in order to score against Uconn. The Huskies defense is just too good to run your half court offense against. They also have to stay out of foul trouble, specifically Achonwa and McBride.

This game has the possibility of being a mismatch, but McGraw will squeeze ever last bit of effort from her team and I expect them to play hard to the end keeping it fairly close.


Final prediction – Uconn by 13.

 

[jplotinus]

Thanks. Statistical breakdown looks very different than Stanford, where UCONN was ahead in more matchup analyses vs Stanford than vs ND.

This upcoming game would appear to be a closer and more difficult match. 13 point margin seems about right.

Let's hope Bria brings her A game. Skylar probably needs to be reverted to her early season slump. I also hope UCONN won't give up easy 3pt looks to any ND player at any time in the game.

 

[OneTrickPony]

Nice analysis DD...and it appears that with Stewart as the first sub, the matchups actually get a little more interesting too...I'm waiting to see what Geno does on defense after that substitution...

 

[Replicant]

This game has the possibility of being a mismatch, but McGraw will squeeze ever last bit of effort from her team and I expect them to play hard to the end keeping it fairly close.


Final prediction – Uconn by 13.

Great analysis as always, but I think you cut & pasted this same conservative conclusion from the Stanford analysis.

It's okay...leave the hyperbole to TonyC and me!

 

[msf22b]

ND is not a great shooting team:


Three games over 100 points within the last month doesn't constitute a great shooting team? Perhaps they just get a lot of offensive rebounds. No? They just take a lot of shots?

 

[doggydaddy]

ND is not a great shooting team:


Three games over 100 points within the last month doesn't constitute a great shooting team? Perhaps they just get a lot of offensive rebounds. No? They just take a lot of shots?

There is a difference between scoring and shooting. Look at the 3 point percentages. Only Loyd is a real threat. Of course, they could have a hot game. It happens. But they don't shoot well from the outside.

They do, however, defend steal run and offensive rebound. They do score a lot doing that. Especially against weaker teams.

 

[Billybonggg]

Your usual fine work, Dogg. Defense never turns cold.

 

[Tonyc]

Great job Doggy. The game will be a battle, it always is. The intimadation factor will set in at some point. The full court press Muffit will handle as she has the guards, however in the half court offense is where ND as does everyteam have problems because of UConns height. KML is a machine gun. It will be very tuff to stop her because of all the other scoring options UConn has. The intangibles, are UConns height, and balanced scoring. UConn has way to many scorers. UConn will get a big lead and depending on when Geno lets up on defense will deterimine how much UConn wins by. I see a 20+ pt lead and then we will see what happens.

 

[Ozzie Nelson]

Overview – Well, here we go again. The first of two regular season meetings with the possibly four (god help us) if they meet in the BE tourney and the NCAA's again. But this year the teams will have a different look. UConn brings back everyone but Hayes and add 3 freshman contributors. Notre Dame loses Peters, Novosel and Mallory and add couple of freshman contributors. One thing stays the same for sure and that is the coaching. Many think that McGraw has the best handle on how to play UConn and Geno is still the best. Both teams will be ready. Here's how I see it.

Players lost – Uconn – Hayes. ND- Peters, Novosel, Mallory
Players added - Uconn – Stewart, Tuck and Jefferson. ND - Loyd, Mabrey, Cable (missed her freshman season)

Match-ups below obviously change during the game. As we know, Doty starts, but Stewart usually gets the minutes. I'm not sure Doty will cover Diggins. It might be Faris or Hartley. But for the sake of this exercise, I will go with these match ups.

PG – Doty 5’10” SR (4.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.5 apg) vs Diggins 5’9” SR (14.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 6.0 apg)

Doty is coming off her best game of the season and according to Geno, the best game of her career. I'm hopeful that this is a sign that Doty will continue to play well. Diggins is playing better as of late after a tough start. She is still a player that can control an entire game and Uconn will have to make her uncomfortable. It will take more than Doty.

AdvantageNotre Dame

SG – Hartley 5’9” JR (9.3 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 3.3 apg) vs Loyd 5’11” FR (12.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.1 apg)

It certainly was a surprise to see Hartley sit after such a great game against Stanford. But as Chris Dailey said, the players have to play a certain way and she wasn't doing that. Maybe it was the long trip. But don't expect a repeat of that against ND. Loyd is a dynamic freshman, but Hartley is a terrific on the ball defender. I doubt Loyd has seen the intense defense that Uconn will bring.

Advantage UConn

SF – Faris 5’11” SR (9.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.9 apg) vs McBride 5’11" JR (15.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.0 apg)
This could be the most fun matchup to watch. McBride is a terrific offensive player but not such a great passer. Faris on the ball defense is fantastic. McBride is strong but Kelly is her match. I keep waiting for Faris to revert to old form on 3 pointers and then she goes 3-3 in her last game. I think the shooting touch is real and that gives her the advantage.

Advantage UConn

PF – M-Lewis SO 6’ (16.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.7 apg) vs Bracker 6’1” JR (7.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.3 apg)

M-Lewis is making her case for 1st team AA. She is now a complete player. If Bracker is on her, it won't be pretty. And M-Lewis won't get tired out covering Bracker. One of the matchups that will kill ND.

Advantage UConn

C – Dolson 6’5” JR (11.9 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 3.3 apg) vs Achonwa 6’3” JR (14.4 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 2.6 apg)
Here are two players that have come into their own. Two if the top post players in the country. Achonwa playing much better than I had thought she would be playing. And Dolson took that next step with her defense of Chiney O. I think that Dolsons size advantage will be the difference.

Advantage UConn

Bench – Uconn - Stewart 6’4" ( 15.2 ppg, 6.7 rpg, .9 apg), Tuck 6’2” (7.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.4 apg), Banks, 5’9” (9.1 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.2 apg), Jefferson 5'7" (3.9 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.8 apg)
vs Wright6’2" (6.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.0 apg), Marbrey 5'11 (4.9 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 2.3 apg), Cable 5'11" (4.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.5 apg)

Total stats off the bench – Uconn – 35.6, 13.5, 6.3. ND – 16.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 4.8 apg

Anytime you have a player like M-Lewis coming off your bench you have an advantage. Now that applied to Stewart. Tuck and Jefferson both looked better the last game. Can it carry over? Marbrey is coming back from an ankle injury and Cable from not playing all last year. No contest here.

Advantage Uconn

Coaching - Geno Auriemma vs Muffet McGraw
Geno is Geno and he has the advantage over everyone. But McGraw is a heck of a coach, and will do a great job in this game in both preparation and in-game adjustments. With so much time between games, Geno will figure out how to disrupt ND's offense.

Advantage UConn (slim margin)

Intangibles – Home court makes a difference. UConn just beating Stanford helps with confidence. ND has recent history on their side.

Advantage UConn

Final analysis – UConn has to value the ball. ND is so dangerous on defense with their steals and that is what jump starts their offense. Both teams are amazing passing teams. They are in the top 3 in assists. Speaking of stats, while they don't tell the entire story, they do give you an indicator of possible future performance. Thanks Meyers.

Scoring
UConn – 86.4 ppg 51.8% FG 40.2% 3pt
Notre Dame – 86.2 ppg 47.1% FG 29.9% 3pt

Defense
UConn – 43.4 ppg 28.5% FG 31% 3pt
Notre Dame – 56.6 ppg 37.6% FG 26.7% 3pt

Rebounding
UConn – 41.1 / Opp 29.8 for a +11.3 ......Offensive rebounds 161 / Opp 134
Notre Dame – 44.3 / Opp 31.2 for a +13.2 ........ Offensive rebounds 212 / Opp 132

Assists/Turnovers
UConn – 21.8 apg / 13.2 tpg … .Opp 23.3 tpg for a +10.1 tpg
Notre Dame – 21.2 apg / 16.1 tpg….Opp 24.3 tpg for a +8.3 tpg

Steals/Blocks
UConn – 12.4 spg / 5.6 bpg
Notre Dame – 13.9 spg / 3.9 bpg

It's interesting to see how close some these stats are. Scoring, Assist, Rebounding. While Uconn's defense looks to be clearly better. And Uconn's shooting is also clearly better. The final stat to put these other statistics in perspective is SOS.

According to Realtime RPI, Uconn 3, ND 26. And we all know that outside the top 20, the competition is weak.

Uconn has several advantages. ND is not a great shooting team and Uconn is a great defensive team. I have the feeling that both Hartley and Stewart will have great games. Uconn also has a size advantage with Dolson, Stewart and Tuck in the paint. Geno will find a way to take advantage of it.

ND HAS to turn Uconn over in order to score against Uconn. The Huskies defense is just too good to run your half court offense against. They also have to stay out of foul trouble, specifically Achonwa and McBride.

This game has the possibility of being a mismatch, but McGraw will squeeze ever last bit of effort from her team and I expect them to play hard to the end keeping it fairly close.


Final prediction – Uconn by 13.

Outstanding post and analysis. A BoneYard Special.

 

[meyers7]

Final analysis – UConn has to value the ball. ND is so dangerous on defense with their steals and that is what jump starts their offense. Both teams are amazing passing teams. They are in the top 3 in assists. Speaking of stats, while they don't tell the entire story, they do give you an indicator of possible future performance. Thanks Meyers.

No problem. And nice job color coordinating it.

 

[RadyLady]

Thanks, DD. Appreciate the detailed analysis. can't wait for the game!

 

[reno tony]

Excellent pre game analysis. Good work!

 

[Scotter]

All the arguing about how ND can't match up at all with UConn anymore over the last 6 months, and you only give UConn a 13 point margin at home?

 

[UConn Sal]

Overview – Well, here we go again. The first of two regular season meetings with the possibly four (god help us) if they meet in the BE tourney and the NCAA's again. But this year the teams will have a different look. UConn brings back everyone but Hayes and add 3 freshman contributors. Notre Dame loses Peters, Novosel and Mallory and add couple of freshman contributors. One thing stays the same for sure and that is the coaching. Many think that McGraw has the best handle on how to play UConn and Geno is still the best. Both teams will be ready. Here's how I see it.

Players lost – Uconn – Hayes. ND- Peters, Novosel, Mallory
Players added - Uconn – Stewart, Tuck and Jefferson. ND - Loyd, Mabrey, Cable (missed her freshman season)

Match-ups below obviously change during the game. As we know, Doty starts, but Stewart usually gets the minutes. I'm not sure Doty will cover Diggins. It might be Faris or Hartley. But for the sake of this exercise, I will go with these match ups.

PG – Doty 5’10” SR (4.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.5 apg) vs Diggins 5’9” SR (14.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 6.0 apg)

Doty is coming off her best game of the season and according to Geno, the best game of her career. I'm hopeful that this is a sign that Doty will continue to play well. Diggins is playing better as of late after a tough start. She is still a player that can control an entire game and Uconn will have to make her uncomfortable. It will take more than Doty.

AdvantageNotre Dame

SG – Hartley 5’9” JR (9.3 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 3.3 apg) vs Loyd 5’11” FR (12.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.1 apg)

It certainly was a surprise to see Hartley sit after such a great game against Stanford. But as Chris Dailey said, the players have to play a certain way and she wasn't doing that. Maybe it was the long trip. But don't expect a repeat of that against ND. Loyd is a dynamic freshman, but Hartley is a terrific on the ball defender. I doubt Loyd has seen the intense defense that Uconn will bring.

Advantage UConn

SF – Faris 5’11” SR (9.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.9 apg) vs McBride 5’11" JR (15.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.0 apg)
This could be the most fun matchup to watch. McBride is a terrific offensive player but not such a great passer. Faris on the ball defense is fantastic. McBride is strong but Kelly is her match. I keep waiting for Faris to revert to old form on 3 pointers and then she goes 3-3 in her last game. I think the shooting touch is real and that gives her the advantage.

Advantage UConn

PF – M-Lewis SO 6’ (16.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.7 apg) vs Bracker 6’1” JR (7.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.3 apg)

M-Lewis is making her case for 1st team AA. She is now a complete player. If Bracker is on her, it won't be pretty. And M-Lewis won't get tired out covering Bracker. One of the matchups that will kill ND.

Advantage UConn

C – Dolson 6’5” JR (11.9 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 3.3 apg) vs Achonwa 6’3” JR (14.4 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 2.6 apg)
Here are two players that have come into their own. Two if the top post players in the country. Achonwa playing much better than I had thought she would be playing. And Dolson took that next step with her defense of Chiney O. I think that Dolsons size advantage will be the difference.

Advantage UConn

Bench – Uconn - Stewart 6’4" ( 15.2 ppg, 6.7 rpg, .9 apg), Tuck 6’2” (7.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.4 apg), Banks, 5’9” (9.1 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.2 apg), Jefferson 5'7" (3.9 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.8 apg)
vs Wright6’2" (6.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.0 apg), Marbrey 5'11 (4.9 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 2.3 apg), Cable 5'11" (4.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.5 apg)

Total stats off the bench – Uconn – 35.6, 13.5, 6.3. ND – 16.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 4.8 apg

Anytime you have a player like M-Lewis coming off your bench you have an advantage. Now that applied to Stewart. Tuck and Jefferson both looked better the last game. Can it carry over? Marbrey is coming back from an ankle injury and Cable from not playing all last year. No contest here.

Advantage Uconn

Coaching - Geno Auriemma vs Muffet McGraw
Geno is Geno and he has the advantage over everyone. But McGraw is a heck of a coach, and will do a great job in this game in both preparation and in-game adjustments. With so much time between games, Geno will figure out how to disrupt ND's offense.

Advantage UConn (slim margin)

Intangibles – Home court makes a difference. UConn just beating Stanford helps with confidence. ND has recent history on their side.

Advantage UConn

Final analysis – UConn has to value the ball. ND is so dangerous on defense with their steals and that is what jump starts their offense. Both teams are amazing passing teams. They are in the top 3 in assists. Speaking of stats, while they don't tell the entire story, they do give you an indicator of possible future performance. Thanks Meyers.

Scoring
UConn – 86.4 ppg 51.8% FG 40.2% 3pt
Notre Dame – 86.2 ppg 47.1% FG 29.9% 3pt

Defense
UConn – 43.4 ppg 28.5% FG 31% 3pt
Notre Dame – 56.6 ppg 37.6% FG 26.7% 3pt

Rebounding
UConn – 41.1 / Opp 29.8 for a +11.3 ......Offensive rebounds 161 / Opp 134
Notre Dame – 44.3 / Opp 31.2 for a +13.2 ........ Offensive rebounds 212 / Opp 132

Assists/Turnovers
UConn – 21.8 apg / 13.2 tpg … .Opp 23.3 tpg for a +10.1 tpg
Notre Dame – 21.2 apg / 16.1 tpg….Opp 24.3 tpg for a +8.3 tpg

Steals/Blocks
UConn – 12.4 spg / 5.6 bpg
Notre Dame – 13.9 spg / 3.9 bpg

It's interesting to see how close some these stats are. Scoring, Assist, Rebounding. While Uconn's defense looks to be clearly better. And Uconn's shooting is also clearly better. The final stat to put these other statistics in perspective is SOS.

According to Realtime RPI, Uconn 3, ND 26. And we all know that outside the top 20, the competition is weak.

Uconn has several advantages. ND is not a great shooting team and Uconn is a great defensive team. I have the feeling that both Hartley and Stewart will have great games. Uconn also has a size advantage with Dolson, Stewart and Tuck in the paint. Geno will find a way to take advantage of it.

ND HAS to turn Uconn over in order to score against Uconn. The Huskies defense is just too good to run your half court offense against. They also have to stay out of foul trouble, specifically Achonwa and McBride.

This game has the possibility of being a mismatch, but McGraw will squeeze ever last bit of effort from her team and I expect them to play hard to the end keeping it fairly close.


Final prediction – Uconn by 13.

 

[UConn Sal]

Overview – Well, here we go again. The first of two regular season meetings with the possibly four (god help us) if they meet in the BE tourney and the NCAA's again. But this year the teams will have a different look. UConn brings back everyone but Hayes and add 3 freshman contributors. Notre Dame loses Peters, Novosel and Mallory and add couple of freshman contributors. One thing stays the same for sure and that is the coaching. Many think that McGraw has the best handle on how to play UConn and Geno is still the best. Both teams will be ready. Here's how I see it.

Players lost – Uconn – Hayes. ND- Peters, Novosel, Mallory
Players added - Uconn – Stewart, Tuck and Jefferson. ND - Loyd, Mabrey, Cable (missed her freshman season)

Match-ups below obviously change during the game. As we know, Doty starts, but Stewart usually gets the minutes. I'm not sure Doty will cover Diggins. It might be Faris or Hartley. But for the sake of this exercise, I will go with these match ups.

PG – Doty 5’10” SR (4.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.5 apg) vs Diggins 5’9” SR (14.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 6.0 apg)

Doty is coming off her best game of the season and according to Geno, the best game of her career. I'm hopeful that this is a sign that Doty will continue to play well. Diggins is playing better as of late after a tough start. She is still a player that can control an entire game and Uconn will have to make her uncomfortable. It will take more than Doty.

AdvantageNotre Dame

SG – Hartley 5’9” JR (9.3 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 3.3 apg) vs Loyd 5’11” FR (12.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.1 apg)

It certainly was a surprise to see Hartley sit after such a great game against Stanford. But as Chris Dailey said, the players have to play a certain way and she wasn't doing that. Maybe it was the long trip. But don't expect a repeat of that against ND. Loyd is a dynamic freshman, but Hartley is a terrific on the ball defender. I doubt Loyd has seen the intense defense that Uconn will bring.

Advantage UConn

SF – Faris 5’11” SR (9.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.9 apg) vs McBride 5’11" JR (15.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.0 apg)
This could be the most fun matchup to watch. McBride is a terrific offensive player but not such a great passer. Faris on the ball defense is fantastic. McBride is strong but Kelly is her match. I keep waiting for Faris to revert to old form on 3 pointers and then she goes 3-3 in her last game. I think the shooting touch is real and that gives her the advantage.

Advantage UConn

PF – M-Lewis SO 6’ (16.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.7 apg) vs Bracker 6’1” JR (7.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.3 apg)

M-Lewis is making her case for 1st team AA. She is now a complete player. If Bracker is on her, it won't be pretty. And M-Lewis won't get tired out covering Bracker. One of the matchups that will kill ND.

Advantage UConn

C – Dolson 6’5” JR (11.9 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 3.3 apg) vs Achonwa 6’3” JR (14.4 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 2.6 apg)
Here are two players that have come into their own. Two if the top post players in the country. Achonwa playing much better than I had thought she would be playing. And Dolson took that next step with her defense of Chiney O. I think that Dolsons size advantage will be the difference.

Advantage UConn

Bench – Uconn - Stewart 6’4" ( 15.2 ppg, 6.7 rpg, .9 apg), Tuck 6’2” (7.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.4 apg), Banks, 5’9” (9.1 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.2 apg), Jefferson 5'7" (3.9 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.8 apg)
vs Wright6’2" (6.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.0 apg), Marbrey 5'11 (4.9 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 2.3 apg), Cable 5'11" (4.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.5 apg)

Total stats off the bench – Uconn – 35.6, 13.5, 6.3. ND – 16.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 4.8 apg

Anytime you have a player like M-Lewis coming off your bench you have an advantage. Now that applied to Stewart. Tuck and Jefferson both looked better the last game. Can it carry over? Marbrey is coming back from an ankle injury and Cable from not playing all last year. No contest here.

Advantage Uconn

Coaching - Geno Auriemma vs Muffet McGraw
Geno is Geno and he has the advantage over everyone. But McGraw is a heck of a coach, and will do a great job in this game in both preparation and in-game adjustments. With so much time between games, Geno will figure out how to disrupt ND's offense.

Advantage UConn (slim margin)

Intangibles – Home court makes a difference. UConn just beating Stanford helps with confidence. ND has recent history on their side.

Advantage UConn

Final analysis – UConn has to value the ball. ND is so dangerous on defense with their steals and that is what jump starts their offense. Both teams are amazing passing teams. They are in the top 3 in assists. Speaking of stats, while they don't tell the entire story, they do give you an indicator of possible future performance. Thanks Meyers.

Scoring
UConn – 86.4 ppg 51.8% FG 40.2% 3pt
Notre Dame – 86.2 ppg 47.1% FG 29.9% 3pt

Defense
UConn – 43.4 ppg 28.5% FG 31% 3pt
Notre Dame – 56.6 ppg 37.6% FG 26.7% 3pt

Rebounding
UConn – 41.1 / Opp 29.8 for a +11.3 ......Offensive rebounds 161 / Opp 134
Notre Dame – 44.3 / Opp 31.2 for a +13.2 ........ Offensive rebounds 212 / Opp 132

Assists/Turnovers
UConn – 21.8 apg / 13.2 tpg … .Opp 23.3 tpg for a +10.1 tpg
Notre Dame – 21.2 apg / 16.1 tpg….Opp 24.3 tpg for a +8.3 tpg

Steals/Blocks
UConn – 12.4 spg / 5.6 bpg
Notre Dame – 13.9 spg / 3.9 bpg

It's interesting to see how close some these stats are. Scoring, Assist, Rebounding. While Uconn's defense looks to be clearly better. And Uconn's shooting is also clearly better. The final stat to put these other statistics in perspective is SOS.

According to Realtime RPI, Uconn 3, ND 26. And we all know that outside the top 20, the competition is weak.

Uconn has several advantages. ND is not a great shooting team and Uconn is a great defensive team. I have the feeling that both Hartley and Stewart will have great games. Uconn also has a size advantage with Dolson, Stewart and Tuck in the paint. Geno will find a way to take advantage of it.

ND HAS to turn Uconn over in order to score against Uconn. The Huskies defense is just too good to run your half court offense against. They also have to stay out of foul trouble, specifically Achonwa and McBride.

This game has the possibility of being a mismatch, but McGraw will squeeze ever last bit of effort from her team and I expect them to play hard to the end keeping it fairly close.


Final prediction – Uconn by 13.

Great analysis I have one difference I doubt that Geno knowing Carolin's knee has slowed her down will put her on Diggins I think it is a lot more likely that he puts the senior against the freshman Loyd as she seems to be the 3 point shooter and not the cutter therefore less need to be fast or change direction rapidly, otherwise I agree. One thing we all have to hope is that the Teflon has worn off of Diggins and her charges get called and not as blocks which has happened the past two seasons.

 

[magical2]

Great analysis I have one difference I doubt that Geno knowing Carolin's knee has slowed her down will put her on Diggins I think it is a lot more likely that he puts the senior against the freshman Loyd as she seems to be the 3 point shooter and not the cutter therefore less need to be fast or change direction rapidly, otherwise I agree. One thing we all have to hope is that the Teflon has worn off of Diggins and her charges get called and not as blocks which has happened the past two seasons.

I tell you all now this is not going to be a close game! So many were prediciting a close game against ST,well
it wasnt We are going to be as dominating against ND on Sat! RE; Carolyn I dont know who she will guard,but
I tell you from having watched the ST game 4 times she is looking incredibly spry for 3 ACLs! She was all ove the court! Her play 47 hours later was fantastic.
Doggy great,super job! Much more to say about the kids and SAT. I wanted to get a post in now with more to come.
I do hope we expose Diggins> I think comments about physical play after the ST game and re the referees were a shout out before this SAT Let us play and we win this big time! I expect big games from KML,Bria,Stewie,Stef,Kelly,with excellent mins from CD,BB, and Morgan is going to enjoy this game!
Ira

 

[Replicant]

Great analysis as always, but I think you cut & pasted this same conservative conclusion from the Stanford analysis.

It's okay...leave the hyperbole to TonyC and me!

Amended to...leave the hyperbole to TonyC, Magical2 and me!

 

[Replicant]

All the arguing about how ND can't match up at all with UConn anymore over the last 6 months, and you only give UConn a 13 point margin at home?

DD's forecast calls for "partly sunny skies"!

 

[HGN]

DogDaddy, I agree with every analysis. Except one. I think the Faris/McBride matchup is EVEN. I wouldn't give the Adv to UConn here. You ahve a good offensive player in McBride against a good defensive player in Faris. Size is about Even. Both have confidence in their talent on court. Both will be needed to win this game. If McBride doesn't get touch fouls called on Faris and live at the line, Faris wins the day.

 

[OneTrickPony]

DogDaddy, I agree with every analysis. Except one. I think the Faris/McBride matchup is EVEN. I wouldn't give the Adv to UConn here. You ahve a good offensive player in McBride against a good defensive player in Faris. Size is about Even. Both have confidence in their talent on court. Both will be needed to win this game. If McBride doesn't get touch fouls called on Faris and live at the line, Faris wins the day.

My money is on Faris all the way...and I love McBride's game...

 

[Kibitzer]

The Notre Dame site (ND Athletics, access WBB News) has several pages of data about the ND wcbb team, historically and currently, with special emphasis on the upcoming game with UConn and the results of past games.

Among the tidbits, UConn has won 29 in the series, ND has won 8, but 4 of the last 5. McGraw is one of only 5 head coaches who have (all-time) 8 wins over Geno. Makes for a good trivia question: Who are the other 4? (OK, Summitt is one, but I am not sure about Paretta, Tara, CViv, or some from the '80's or '90's).

The 4 of 5 ND recent wins attest to the ebb and flow of UConn's rivalries. I remember when 'Nova was a tough out. Then Rutgers. And Tennessee back in the day. Duke and Stamford occasionally. Now Baylor and ND. They seem to come and go but somehow Geno keeps the target on the back of his Huskies. And I love it that way!

 

[VAMike23]

I think it will be interesting to see what happens if ND tries the same type of strategy that UMD and Penn State used (why would they not?). Stanford was also a physical game but IMHO not in the vein of PSU, UMD or West Virginia, etc. Outside of Chiney, they just didn't have the athletes or the experience to bother us that way.

In the past, with players like Novasel, Mallory, SkyDigg and Peters, ND was able to succeed in this style of game and frustrate the Huskies. On their end, they place more emphasis on each player being very aggressive and strong with the ball, vs. the Huskies pass-and-cut where the offense is supposed to create more of the opportunities than the individual player. Hence the consistently high ratio of assists to scored baskets for UCONN vs. the consistently high number of FT per game for the Irish.

I was one who thought this year's Irish would not be all that good. But players like McBride and Achonwa--who were already quite good--appear to have made substantial strides, and now they also have Loyd who is a real gamer. And there is that massive FT attempt margin that the Irish seem to be enjoying again this year. This tells me that they are yet again being very strong with the ball, which has worked for them in the past.

I think that UCONN is not consistently good in exploiting size mismatches in the classic fashion. This is partly on the post player and partly on the perimeter play whose job it is to make a good entry. (At times, it is also on our offense, where the guards are occasionally so high that when a player flashes or posts in the lane there is not even a glance, much less a real opportunity, to make an entry.) Stef, for one, has gotten better at this but as a team it comes and goes. If we are able to work these mismatches, it's very good news for our squad. But rather than look for this to happen (although Stef will get some buckets this way), I look for KML to continue to simply make plays and, hopefully, get to the line. I think she is the offensive key against ND because she is the one with the combo of strength, outside game and inside game and she has more confidence this year. If KML gets to the line regularly, we will win handily against ND; Huskies by 18. If the Irish continue their own comfortable existence at the FT line and we don't get there ourselves, it will be a close game. (Remember that Stokes may not be there to spell Stef and even if she is, she's rusty.) In that case it's the Huskies by 7.

The blowout (Huskies by 25+) will only occur if we are able to consistently exploit mismatches in the post with better entry passes and savvy post play, and have KML and other scorers get to the line with regularity.

 

[UConnCat]

I expect UConn to go to Stef and Breanna in the post early and often. Stef has had some very good games against ND, including the most recent FF loss in which she was UConn's best player. I think Stef and Breanna will be able to score against Achonwa and ND's other post players.

BTW, Fuller tweeted that Kiah is participating in practice, though on a limited basis. Not sure what that means but it doesn't sound like she'll be ready for tomorrow.

 

[Forty_four]

I think it will be interesting to see what happens if ND tries the same type of strategy that UMD and Penn State used (why would they not?). Stanford was also a physical game but IMHO not in the vein of PSU, UMD or West Virginia, etc. Outside of Chiney, they just didn't have the athletes or the experience to bother us that way.

In the past, with players like Novasel, Mallory, SkyDigg and Peters, ND was able to succeed in this style of game and frustrate the Huskies. On their end, they place more emphasis on each player being very aggressive and strong with the ball, vs. the Huskies pass-and-cut where the offense is supposed to create more of the opportunities than the individual player. Hence the consistently high ratio of assists to scored baskets for UCONN vs. the consistently high number of FT per game for the Irish.

I was one who thought this year's Irish would not be all that good. But players like McBride and Achonwa--who were already quite good--appear to have made substantial strides, and now they also have Loyd who is a real gamer. And there is that massive FT attempt margin that the Irish seem to be enjoying again this year. This tells me that they are yet again being very strong with the ball, which has worked for them in the past.

I think that UCONN is not consistently good in exploiting size mismatches in the classic fashion. This is partly on the post player and partly on the perimeter play whose job it is to make a good entry. (At times, it is also on our offense, where the guards are occasionally so high that when a player flashes or posts in the lane there is not even a glance, much less a real opportunity, to make an entry.) Stef, for one, has gotten better at this but as a team it comes and goes. If we are able to work these mismatches, it's very good news for our squad. But rather than look for this to happen (although Stef will get some buckets this way), I look for KML to continue to simply make plays and, hopefully, get to the line. I think she is the offensive key against ND because she is the one with the combo of strength, outside game and inside game and she has more confidence this year. If KML gets to the line regularly, we will win handily against ND; Huskies by 18. If the Irish continue their own comfortable existence at the FT line and we don't get there ourselves, it will be a close game. (Remember that Stokes may not be there to spell Stef and even if she is, she's rusty.) In that case it's the Huskies by 7.

The blowout (Huskies by 25+) will only occur if we are able to consistently exploit mismatches in the post with better entry passes and savvy post play, and have KML and other scorers get to the line with regularity.

Why do you repeatedly say that KML needs to get to the line? She has taken 19 ft in 12 games, not a regular visitor to the line, 3pt shooters rarely are and her inside game is better than a year ago but not her bread and butter. UConn does not need her to get to the line to win this contest, we need her to hit 3's.

 

[Kibitzer]

VAMike, although D-Daddy is a superb analyst and a tough act to follow, I think you have really nailed important, perhaps decisive, factors in the upcoming ND vs. UConn game.

Muffet has a major challenge figuring out how to contain Kaleena, Stefanie and Bria. She may see Breanna enjoy a breakout game.