UConn needs a plan

[BoatShow]

Let's just sustain off bowl NCAA payouts

 

[djct1999]

No one is coming to save UConn. Either UConn comes up with a way to save itself, or it is going to die. If UConn is still cashing $2MM checks in the AAC in 2024, NO ONE is going to add us.

Let's spare this board the hypothetical. There is no other way. Either you join the big boys or you die.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Let's spare this board the hypothetical. There is no other way. Either you join the big boys or you die.

Then we are dead, and we would be better off downgrading the entire athletic program.

 

[djct1999]

Then we are dead, and we would be better off downgrading the entire athletic program.

Maybe so. Misery enjoys company. We aren't the only school that is going to sink. This model is unsustainable. College athletics is dying a slow death.

 

[djct1999]

Then we are dead, and we would be better off downgrading the entire athletic program.

The only bit of hope I still hold is that the administrations actions make no sense if UConn is going to be excluded.

 

[CTMike]

First of all, it is survival so we figure out a way out. Your argument is like saying it is easier to drown because the current is too strong.

The easiest path would be to find the G5 with the nearest term expiration, and just dump the entire league into that one. In fact, all the G5 should do that. If you aren't going to get paid for televising your games, why bother? I posted my idea in the El Paso thread a couple of weeks ago about reconstituting the G5 under one umbrella that was a loose scheduling and network alliance, but then letting individual teams sell most of their own content individually.

Make 10 6 team divisions instead of 5 conferences that no one cares about. UConn would have 5 set games against regional opponents every year: short distance drives, full stadiums, rivals. Then UConn would play 3 games against national G5 opponents (Boise, Houston, whoever), then have 4 at-large games that UConn could schedule any way they want.

You would have Three tiers of content:

Tier 1: Top 10-20% games from the G5, sell these to a national network, figure out a revenue split.
Tier 2: Division games could be sold regionally. Would SNY or NESN want to televise a Division of UConn, UMass, Navy, Temple, Buffalo, Army? Probably, at a decent price.
Tier 3: Probably close to half the inventory per school, saleable however the school wants.

I would let the schools produce the games. The national networks get paid a crapload of money to show up with a few cameras and ex-jocks. Have a single national studio for the Tier 2 pregame and halftime shows. I would like the A10 join this for hoops.

Low investment, low overhead, more revenue than today. And likely how most P5 conferences will look post 2025 with the exception of Tier 3 will belong to the conference. Once UConn is in that structure, it will likely both generate more revenue and create a benchmark to value UConn for other leagues.

Or we could continue to give our content away for free for eternity.

To your credit, this is your most detailed plan to date.

Unfortunately the first step is "figure a way out".

 

[nelsonmuntz]

To your credit, this is your most detailed plan to date.

Unfortunately the first step is "figure a way out".

That isn't the first step. I am saying that UConn needs to figure this out. My idea is one way, and I am sure there are others. Of all the ideas that might work, the one we know with 1000% certainty that will not is the status quo. That is certain failure. I suspect that if you thought about it over the weekend, you could come up with something better than what UConn is currently doing.

 

[UCFBfan]

Then we are dead, and we would be better off downgrading the entire athletic program.

Now is this just a UConn needs to downgrade or are you advocating that every school not in the P5 downgrade? Last I checked, there are about 65 teams that are cashing $2MM or less paychecks every year....I have a feeling that all of the have nots will figure out that only the strongest will survive and if no P5 seat is coming, they'll band together something. I'm not sure I see every G5 school taking our advice on downgrading.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Now is this just a UConn needs to downgrade or are you advocating that every school not in the P5 downgrade? Last I checked, there are about 65 teams that are cashing $2MM or less paychecks every year....I have a feeling that all of the have nots will figure out that only the strongest will survive and if no P5 seat is coming, they'll band together something. I'm not sure I see every G5 school taking our advice on downgrading.

Either schools have to generate more revenue or cut costs. The status quo is not sustainable for most schools. Now a lot of the lower level D1 football schools slash coaching, recruiting, and facilities budgets, and sell their schedule to SEC and Big 10 schools for paychecks. They can cut their costs to a point that is sustainable, but those programs are not even trying to compete nationally. That might be UConn's ultimate outcome, becoming the equivalent of Toledo or Georgia Southern.

 

[VAHuskyFan]

First of all, it is survival so we figure out a way out. Your argument is like saying it is easier to drown because the current is too strong.

The easiest path would be to find the G5 with the nearest term expiration, and just dump the entire league into that one. In fact, all the G5 should do that. If you aren't going to get paid for televising your games, why bother? I posted my idea in the El Paso thread a couple of weeks ago about reconstituting the G5 under one umbrella that was a loose scheduling and network alliance, but then letting individual teams sell most of their own content individually.

Make 10 6 team divisions instead of 5 conferences that no one cares about. UConn would have 5 set games against regional opponents every year: short distance drives, full stadiums, rivals. Then UConn would play 3 games against national G5 opponents (Boise, Houston, whoever), then have 4 at-large games that UConn could schedule any way they want.

You would have Three tiers of content:

Tier 1: Top 10-20% games from the G5, sell these to a national network, figure out a revenue split.
Tier 2: Division games could be sold regionally. Would SNY or NESN want to televise a Division of UConn, UMass, Navy, Temple, Buffalo, Army? Probably, at a decent price.
Tier 3: Probably close to half the inventory per school, saleable however the school wants.

I would let the schools produce the games. The national networks get paid a crapload of money to show up with a few cameras and ex-jocks. Have a single national studio for the Tier 2 pregame and halftime shows. I would like the A10 join this for hoops.

Low investment, low overhead, more revenue than today. And likely how most P5 conferences will look post 2025 with the exception of Tier 3 will belong to the conference. Once UConn is in that structure, it will likely both generate more revenue and create a benchmark to value UConn for other leagues.

Or we could continue to give our content away for free for eternity.

This is actually an interesting concept as a thought piece. Under the new BCS structure, we're essentially one conference anyway in football. And this would be an innovative way to get out from under the $2M AAC deal.

Any reason why we'd want to merge everyone together instead of the minimum needed to blow up the AAC deal? What about merging two G5 conferences plus one other team to get to <50%?

One issue I see is that the G5 members would be lighting 4 basketball auto-bids on fire for the NCAA Tournament (and the payouts that go with them). Do you see any way to avoid that?

This would probably also take a lot of work and present a huge collective action problem. The teams with the most to gain like us would need to take the laboring oar, and Priority 1 for them is trying to get into the P5. I get that you think it's a long shot, but I probably want the UConn AD's office focusing on that anyway, rather than crisscrossing the country to try to convince random G5 bottom-feeders to go for this - and pissing ESPN off in the process.

For G5 schools that aren't UConn and whose T3 rights aren't worth anything, what's the value proposition?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The basketball thing is tricky because of the autobids. I wonder if breaking the football conference affiliation alone is enough to break the TV contract. To be honest, I like the idea of doing something similar in hoops almost better than doing it in football. If UConn could take Cincinnati and affiliate with the top 7 or 8 A 10 schools, it would be a better league than the one we are in. You would have a core schedule within your "conference", but then schedule top non-league games year to year in an effort to maximize SOS and avoid 200+ RPI games.

At the prices the conferences are getting now, I have to think you could sell locally and with online subscriptions for more than you could get nationally. Tulane may have close to $0 value nationally, but there must be some value to local broadcasters. A lot of these channels run movie reruns during Saturday afternoon.

It would take a lot of work to put something like this together, but the leagues need to do something, and I honestly think this is where the market is going anyway. Does the AAC want to be the last league selling their content in a traditional manner to ESPN?

 

[junglehusky]

I think the costs are too high to produce your own content on a budget. Look at FS1. How many times have you seen complaints on social media about their crappy production values? I've seen several live broadcasts where it sounded like the audio was being relayed by two cups and a string. People expect a certain level of competence and if you can't deliver they're not going to watch.

Now I do believe UConn has the capability to produce something adequate, and maybe UConn is one of the better placed schools who could invest in that production capability. Maybe those costs go down with tech innovations over the next 8-10 years. But what happens when UConn goes to visit a tier 2 school? "Hey Tulsa we don't really want to associate with you or distribute any conference money to you, but could you spend xx million dollars to build a professional production studio so that our fans can watch the game?"

 

[CL82]

In a shocking development, the Big 12 decided that adding a school making $2 a year from its media deal wouldn't add >$25 million to the Big 12.

This post is pretty logic-free even for Nelson. Sometimes I worry that he's had a stroke.

 

[pepband99]

Then we are dead, and we would be better off downgrading the entire athletic program.

...and there it is. Kill the whole thing. UConn becomes NYU without the NY. That's unlikely to end well.

 

[hardcorehusky]

UGGH - if Nelson thinks UCONN has had its head in the sand for 4 years about future revenue, then he couldn't be more wrong than he normally is. There are lots of plans, contingent plans, etc. The problem is the tide shifts the sands every year.

4 years ago- Big East breaks up - UCONN, Cinnci, USF and Temple have a new conference that was unnamed. What media company is going to give a league, that just called up UCF, Houston, Tulane, Tulsa,etc a big contract like the P5?
Aresco cuts a deal that maximizes exposure- win for ESPN, bad for conference dollars, great for exposure.

Then.....

UCF beats Baylor
Houston becomes good and beats Florida State
UCONN wins National Title
UCONN women win all titles

Navy is added for football and brings its strength and prestige.

Now the deal sucks, the teams are becoming more competitive because of the exposure and the conference as a whole is trending upward and UCONN and Cinnci are not going backwards.

Maybe the AAC should work on making their digital network more accessible to raise revenue over the next few years. But here is where things get interesting-

If the conference keeps the upward trajectory over the next few years- the AAC is not going to be looked at like the MAC, CUSA or MWC financially - they will be in the middle beween the P5 and the lower tier. I think they will be like the old Big East - and the bump will go from $2 m a team to $12-$18 m a team. Not P5 - not G5.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

This post is pretty logic-free even for Nelson. Sometimes I worry that he's had a stroke.

So UConn got invited to the Big 12? Awesome.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

The reality is UConn's leadership does have a plan. That Waylon knows little about the plan and does not agree with what he does know is of little consequence.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

UConn should have three plans
1. Start winning football games in bunches.
2 Get into a P5 conference
3. If you haven't yet accomplished number 2 refer to number 1

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The reality is UConn's leadership does have a plan. That Waylon knows little about the plan and does not agree with what he does know is of little consequence.

So your takeaway from all this is to attack me? There are a million "UConn to the Big 10" fantasy threads for you to jump in. If you have nothing to add to this discussion, stay out of it.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

UConn should have three plans
1. Start winning football games in bunches.
2 Get into a P5 conference
3. If you haven't yet accomplished number 2 refer to number 1

1 does not lead to 2, and 1 does not solve UConn's biggest problem, revenue.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

UGGH - if Nelson thinks UCONN has had its head in the sand for 4 years about future revenue, then he couldn't be more wrong than he normally is. There are lots of plans, contingent plans, etc. The problem is the tide shifts the sands every year.

4 years ago- Big East breaks up - UCONN, Cinnci, USF and Temple have a new conference that was unnamed. What media company is going to give a league, that just called up UCF, Houston, Tulane, Tulsa,etc a big contract like the P5?
Aresco cuts a deal that maximizes exposure- win for ESPN, bad for conference dollars, great for exposure.

Then.....

UCF beats Baylor
Houston becomes good and beats Florida State
UCONN wins National Title
UCONN women win all titles

Navy is added for football and brings its strength and prestige.

Now the deal sucks, the teams are becoming more competitive because of the exposure and the conference as a whole is trending upward and UCONN and Cinnci are not going backwards.

Maybe the AAC should work on making their digital network more accessible to raise revenue over the next few years. But here is where things get interesting-

If the conference keeps the upward trajectory over the next few years- the AAC is not going to be looked at like the MAC, CUSA or MWC financially - they will be in the middle beween the P5 and the lower tier. I think they will be like the old Big East - and the bump will go from $2 m a team to $12-$18 m a team. Not P5 - not G5.

I agree with you to some extent about the on-field success, but I strongly disagree that ESPN is ever going to give the AAC an 8 digit per school TV contract. ESPN has a dying business model, and the smart money is scrambling to disintermediate ESPN as quickly as possible. I think here is still a ton of money in TV content, just not much in being a broadcaster of it. If the AAC ever wants to generate $10+ million per school, it needs to control its own content.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

1 does not lead to 2, and 1 does not solve UConn's biggest problem, revenue.

More winS=more Ticket sales = more revenue
Better bowls mean much more revenue ,
Winning creates more viewership which means more revenue
Winning increases corporate sponsorship which equals more revenue
More people at games =more concession sales means more revenue
Winning increases brand which results in lucrative contract which means more revenue.
Winning increases likelihood of future more lucrative media contracts
In other words "winning isn't everything it's the only thing"

.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

So your takeaway from all this is to attack me? There are a million "UConn to the Big 10" fantasy threads for you to jump in. If you have nothing to add to this discussion, stay out of it.

I was not attacking you, merely commenting on your lack of insight and incessant whining. I can assure you that more is being done now to position our university for the future than was done from inception through the day Herbst was hired. I also can state with confidence that if the school's leadership was 1/10 as focused and driven a decade ago as the current leadership is we would need be on the outside looking in.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I agree with you to some extent about the on-field success, but I strongly disagree that ESPN is ever going to give the AAC an 8 digit per school TV contract. ESPN has a dying business model, and the smart money is scrambling to disintermediate ESPN as quickly as possible. I think here is still a ton of money in TV content, just not much in being a broadcaster of it. If the AAC ever wants to generate $10+ million per school, it needs to control its own content.

For the sake of argument lets look at your idea:

1) Do you believe that a sufficient number of current AAC members would play the above gambit without iron clad assurances that the (currently) more attractive members would agree to be locked into the conference for an extended period of time?

2) Do you believe that there would be any way to sell any tiers of the broadcast rights without the same iron clad assurances?

It appears to me that your proposal would guarantee UConn second rate status for at least a couple of decades.

 

[CL82]

So UConn got invited to the Big 12? Awesome.

No it didn't. Be strong buddy and do your therapy. You'll get through this.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I agree with you to some extent about the on-field success, but I strongly disagree that ESPN is ever going to give the AAC an 8 digit per school TV contract. ESPN has a dying business model, and the smart money is scrambling to disintermediate ESPN as quickly as possible. I think here is still a ton of money in TV content, just not much in being a broadcaster of it. If the AAC ever wants to generate $10+ million per school, it needs to control its own content.

No, it probably won't be $10m. But Aresco turned down more money in order to guarantee coverage on key channels. He traded money for exposure. The deal ends in 2020. Given that the ratings have far exceeded expectations, and the on field performance has been solid, the money will go up. At present, I'd ballpark it as something closer to $6M plus retained T3 rights or $8-9M a school if T3 included.

You say the status quo won't work. But what really won't work is doing anything except accepting a P5 invite if it comes, before the AAC contract renewal. During that renewal we absolutely have to play hardball and explore every option to maximize revenue for UConn. I think Benedict and Herbst are well aware. The AAC payout is likely to exceed what the Big East brings in, so moving there as you constantly suggest, solves nothing.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

No, it probably won't be $10m. But Aresco turned down more money in order to guarantee coverage on key channels. He traded money for exposure. The deal ends in 2020. Given that the ratings have far exceeded expectations, and the on field performance has been solid, the money will go up. At present, I'd ballpark it as something closer to $6M plus retained T3 rights or $8-9M a school if T3 included.

You say the status quo won't work. But what really won't work is doing anything except accepting a P5 invite if it comes, before the AAC contract renewal. During that renewal we absolutely have to play hardball and explore every option to maximize revenue for UConn. I think Benedict and Herbst are well aware. The AAC payout is likely to exceed what the Big East brings in, so moving there as you constantly suggest, solves nothing.

I don't believe Aresco turned down more money for exposure. ESPN had the right to match any deal that NBC or whoever else offered.

ESPN simply matched what was negotiated with NBC.

The AAC in the next round of negotiations needs to secure a deal with exposure and let's our teams retain our Tier 3 rights.

The SNY deal for women's hoops alone was almost half of our TV revenue from the AAC deal.

I imagine we could work a deal that the take home is around 5M a program, ESPN exposure, and let's us retain T3 rights.

I think UConn will eventually have to scale back some varsity level participation in order to lessen our sub paid for by student fees, but at the same time our facilities are still relatively new or brand new and aside from coaching expenses, I'm not sure where the huge influx of cash is needed that is going to threaten to kill our AD in its entirety.

 

[mavblues]

So your takeaway from all this is to attack me? There are a million "UConn to the Big 10" fantasy threads for you to jump in. If you have nothing to add to this discussion, stay out of it.

You obviously feel very strongly about this.

Have you contacted the University and offered your assistance and / or suggestions? If so, what was the response? If not, why haven't you?

You keep posting similar things here over and over and I'm not sure what your goal is. Are you hoping to create some sort of populist movement?

Nobody here has the power to implement your suggestions, so why do you keep wasting your time?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

For the sake of argument lets look at your idea:

1) Do you believe that a sufficient number of current AAC members would play the above gambit without iron clad assurances that the (currently) more attractive members would agree to be locked into the conference for an extended period of time?

2) Do you believe that there would be any way to sell any tiers of the broadcast rights without the same iron clad assurances?

It appears to me that your proposal would guarantee UConn second rate status for at least a couple of decades.

So you think the status quo is smart. I am telling you with certainty that it isn't. If you can mathematically explain how staying locked into a long term $2 million a year media contract can cover the $30 million hole in the athletic budget, I am all ears.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

You obviously feel very strongly about this.

Have you contacted the University and offered your assistance and / or suggestions? If so, what was the response? If not, why haven't you?

You keep posting similar things here over and over and I'm not sure what your goal is. Are you hoping to create some sort of populist movement?

Nobody here has the power to implement your suggestions, so why do you keep wasting your time?

Message board poster attacking a message board poster for wasting time posting on a message board. Got it.