Without knowing how to play results out on a computer, I did go through it and I think the odds are fairly low that we can get in beating BC and losing in the final. Everything else in the college hockey world would have to break perfectly. And, for that to be our plan, we better lose to UMass in the finals, not Merrimack, and our win over BC better be in regulation and our finals loss in a penalty shootout where for NPI purposes it counts as a tie.
In any event, all that matters now is beating BC. I’m sure by Saturday morning there will be more clarity on whether getting in as an at large is possible.
Barring some statistical anomaly in the new NPI system that no one has seen yet, this is how the cutline would look if we lose to Merrimack in the final:
13. Tommies/Minnesota State winner
14. UConn
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15. Augustana
16. UMass
Bid Stealers - Merrimack, Bentley/Sacred Heart
In this scenario, UConn still makes it as long as Michigan and Dartmouth/Cornell win their conferences. While a Merrimack loss would hurt our NPI, a BC win would also improve our NPI. UMass would only have the one loss to Merrimack and slip. Augustana also gets virtually no boost from either CCHA winner (1-1-1 vs. Mankato, 1-1-2 vs. Tommies).
This is still leaving our fate in the hands of 2-3 other teams. And this might just be my own opinion, but I think the committee is sending us to Sioux Falls (to be slaughtered by North Dakota) or Loveland if we do get in as an at-large.
Bottom line, win two this weekend and get our first HE title so we can play in Worcester/Albany.
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