UConn Metrics (1/18)

[BFieldHusky]

NET: 8
KenPom: 10
BPI: 11
Torvik: 4
WAB: 1

Road/Neutral: 9-0

Q1: 5-1
Q2: 6-0
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 4-0

 

[businesslawyer]

4th in Warren Nolan’s RPI. No question that any resume based ranking will have us higher than any performance based ranking. Resume rankings say we keep winning against a good schedule. Predictive rankings look at the struggles to beat Providence, Seton Hall and Georgetown and attribute it to a luck element as if who wins close games is more random than winning being a skill/trait in and of itself.

 

[WeAreUCONN]

The eye test tells me we’re going to have 4 losses in the remaining Big East schedule. I hope my eyes are wrong.

 

[7774]

The eye test tells me we’re going to have 4 losses in the remaining Big East schedule. I hope my eyes are wrong.

Every other part of you is always wrong, why would the eyes be any different?

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Here's my question:

How much longer will we need to wait until these ratings algorithms are refined enough that there will no longer be any need for the tournament, and we can save time by awarding the trophy to whoever ends the season with the best rating?

 

[auror]

Here's my question:

How much longer will we need to wait until these ratings algorithms are refined enough that there will no longer be any need for the tournament, and we can save time by awarding the trophy to whoever ends the season with the best rating?

If we could only be so lucky.

(Serious answer to the joke post) There will never be enough data to even get close to that considering how much shooting variance impacts basketball games.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

If we could only be so lucky.

(Serious answer to the joke post) There will never be enough data to even get close to that considering how much shooting variance impacts basketball games.

No kidding. I also doubt that any set of metrics is above maybe 60% of where it can be, knowing that at 100% there still.will be s significant margin for error.

I don't fully get why some get as obsessed as they do with them. It's a useful, but very limited tool if used correctly.

 

[Get a Job]

No kidding. I also doubt that any set of metrics is above maybe 60% of where it can be, knowing that at 100% there still.will be s significant margin for error.

I don't fully get why some get as obsessed as they do with them. It's a useful, but very limited tool if used correctly.

I know where you're coming from, and I don't mean the following as an argument against that.

KenPom is an infinitely better way of determining who the best team is (and, more broadly, how good any team is relative to another) than a single-elimination tournament. Not because the algorithm is so good, but because a single-elimination tournament is a woefully bad way of determining the best team.

It sure is fun though!

 

[Tenspro2002]

This year is like the anti-2023, when our record and resume metrics were much worse than the predictive metrics.

We dominated when we won, but lost a lot of close games.

Ultimately, it was the predictive metrics that proved right.

This year the opposite. We're winning games but look awful doing it. We'll see which prevails.

 

[auror]

This year is like the anti-2023, when our record and resume metrics were much worse than the predictive metrics.

We dominated when we won, but lost a lot of close games.

Ultimately, it was the predictive metrics that proved right.

This year the opposite. We're winning games but look awful doing it. We'll see which prevails.

Just to clarify, we don't look awful doing it. Just not impressive. We've lost ground in the metrics, but not THAT much. We lost a lot more ground in 2023 in our losing streak. It's more than there are a lot of other good teams this year so even more teams are passing us.

 

[ctbro1999]

I'm with Hurley:F the metrics.

 

[InTheRed]

The eye test tells me we’re going to have 4 losses in the remaining Big East schedule. I hope my eyes are wrong.

I would take that bet. This team is not our best under Hurley but may be the most mentally prepared for adversity.

 

[pj]

KenPom is an infinitely better way of determining who the best team is (and, more broadly, how good any team is relative to another) than a single-elimination tournament. Not because the algorithm is so good, but because a single-elimination tournament is a woefully bad way of determining the best team.

If KenPom determined the champion, how many championships would we have? One?

 

[Get a Job]

If KenPom determined the champion, how many championships would we have? One?

We'd probably have fewer than Gonzaga!

 

[Ts5034]

Metrics do not measure the fact we are getting every teams best shot in this league. In a year where the conference is so bad, I think teams are a little extra desperate to beat us because it would be the only serious resume booster. At the same time, I feel like maybe the guys are going through the motions a little bit when It comes to the Big East. It’s no secret they have eyes on the NC, and after the OOC that we had, maybe they just have a hard time keeping up the Intensity vs such a weak league.

If so, that is unacceptable, and eventually It will catch up with them. I think this week off came at the right time. If we come out flat vs Villanova on Saturday, or we keep up this level of play at STJ in a few weeks, then maybe It’s time to get a little worried.