UConn/Maryland analysis - better late than never!

[doggydaddy]

Overview - UConn couldn't come into this game in better shape. Lewis will be back and everyone is healthy. And they are playing at mid-season form. Maryland was upset by St. Joes, 50-49 but bounced back nicely by destroying American and beating a ranked Nebraska team on the road. But since then, they had another devistating injury. Already having lost their starting PG before the season started, they have lost their best guard in Mincy to an ACL injury. This leaves an already short team in the backcourt even shorter in both numbers and height.

(Stats listed in PPG, RPG, and APG order)

PG - Bria Hartley JR. (5'10", 7.3, 1.5, 3.3) vs Cloe Pavlech FR (5'9",3.8, 2.2, 3.4)

Yes, Virginia, there is a point guard and her name is Bria Hartley. Being nominated for the Leiberman top PG award last year answered that question. On just the expereince level Pavlech is a tough matchup against Hartley. If Hartley is back at close to 90% with her ankle and stamina, Pavlech will have big problems. Pavlech is a nice freshman player, but at this level, it could be ugly. She was ranked No. 23 point guard on ESPN.com's Hoop Gurlz rankings with a scouts grade of 91.

Advantage UConn - big time!

SG - Kelly Faris SR (5'11", 10, 3.2, 4.3) vs Katie Rutan JR (5'8", 7.3, 3.8, 2.4)

How amazing is it that Faris went from starting power forward to starting shooting guard...lol. If she can continue to shoot well, she is probably the best all-around guard in the country. Rutan is a decent backup guard, but has been thrown in the fray as a starter and really has split time as a starter with Pavlech. Not a good matchup for Maryland. Faris's athletism will give Rutan a lot of problems.

Advantage UConn - big time!

C - Stephanie Dolson JR (6'5", 13, 6, 4.2) vs Alicia Devaughn JR (6'4", 12, 8.2, 1)

Dolson is playing up to the much maligned "2nd best center in the country" comment from Geno last year. The best passing center in the country, she is shooting with confidence, playing BIG even though she slimmed down. Devaughn has been solid for Maryland her first 2 years. A terrific defensive players, she will be a good matchup with Dolson. Devaughn has doubled her scoring from last year. Can she do this against a bigger player?

Advantage UConn

PF - Breanna Stewart FR (6'4", 16.8, 6.5, 1) vs Tianna Hawkins SR (6'3", 19.8, 10, 1).

Best freshman in the country vs one of the most inproved Seniors in the country. I am SO looking forward to this matchup. Stewart is just that good. But she will be going against someone her size. And I'm sure that Hawkins has never seen anyone like Stewart. Hawkins is a tough and formidable foe.

Slight advantage UConn. Stewart is just that talented even as a frosh.

SF - Kalena Mosqueda-Lewis vs Alyssa Thomas.

Great matchup here. Lewis will have her new-found defensive prowess tested. But can Thomas stay with Lewis on the perimeter? Thomas has really taken a lot of the PG duties from the forward position. Can she handle the extended defensive pressure of UConn? She is better in transition. Lewis is just such a tough matchup now with her incredible outside shot and the ability to post up. Two terrific players.

Even

Bench - Maryland (Howard, Pfirman) vs UConn (Doty, Jefferson, Stokes, Tuck, Banks, Buck)

No contest here. UConn's bench would give Maryland's starters a tough game.

Advantage UConn

Coaching - Geno vs Brenda. HOF vs ???.

Advantage UConn

Summary - This is the first matchup between these programs. And after the game, Maryland might not want to play UConn again. It might have looked like a decent game prior after last season ended, but now without both their starting PG and SG, it looks to have the possibility of a 50 point win for UConn. The trapping defenses that UConn has been deploying will stress even the best of backcourts. And I don't think that Thomas will be able to help that much against the tough defense UConn will show. I'm hoping that Maryland will still give UConn a game, but I don't have much faith in that happening.

Uconn by 35+.

I get to sit with the Boneyard mods tonight. At least they can't ban me from the game!!!!

 

[speedoo]

Thanks DD. Although comparing Thomas and KML at shooting forward makes sense in your analysis, I expect Ms. Thomas' evening will be made more difficult by having Kelly Faris as a defender for much of the game. I can't see Geno wasting Kelly's defensive prowess on the Terp guards.

 

[doggydaddy]

Thanks DD. Although comparing Thomas and KML at shooting forward makes sense in your analysis, I expect Ms. Thomas' evening will be made more difficult by having Kelly Faris as a defender for much of the game. I can't see Geno wasting Kelly's defensive prowess on the Terp guards.

great point!

 

[John Glass]

Thanks DD. Although comparing Thomas and KML at shooting forward makes sense in your analysis, I expect Ms. Thomas' evening will be made more difficult by having Kelly Faris as a defender for much of the game. I can't see Geno wasting Kelly's defensive prowess on the Terp guards.

Thomas will be playing some point guard tonight. She is an average ball handler, however against Nebraska she was able to penetrate, and pass to the 3 point shooters. She had 8 assists.

 

[Tonyc]

Doggy great analysis as always. If MD cant hit their outside shots and I should say deep outside shots this could be a massacure. I expect Geno to call off the press when UConn extends the lead to the point where MD cant come back. Remember there is no clearing the bench to allow MD to come back. UConn 94 MD 48

 

[meyers7]

The only major thing UCONN will have to deal with tonight is MD's rebounding. They are +22. Even in the game they lost against St. Joe's they outrebounded them 47-27. UCONN by comparison is +14.

However, Maryland is only +0.4 in the turnover department. While UCONN comes in at +9.5. Here is where UCONN should be able to do some damage, especially with the inexperienced guards of Maryland. Also Maryland only goes basically 3 deep at guard. Rutan, Pavlech and the walk-on Austin (who has only been averaging around 7 minutes a game - 0 in their loss to St. Joe's). As doggy said, Thomas has taken over some of the point duties, point-foward (she leads the team in assists). So Maryland will probably have a big lineup out there a lot of the night. (bigger than what UCONN is used to seeing anyway)

 

[Phil]

Maryland takes twelve three-pointers per game (for contrast, Purdue takes 14). Maryland doesn't hit as well as Purdue, but at 36% it is a threat. If there are any chinks in the UConn armor, it is allowing opponents to take uncontested threes (in fairness, a handful of the uncontested ones were way behind the line).

I suspect a point of emphasis by Geno will be showing that they can shut down three point shooting.

(PS, Nice analysis)

 

[Phil]

A lot has been written about losing PG (Moseley) pre-season and Mincy the other day, but they also lost 6' 7" Essence Townsend. Not a major contributor offensively, but if I were a coach, and I saw a 6' 5" center and a 6' 4" PF, I might like to see if a 6' 7" player could make their life difficult, even if she doesn't score. But she tore an ACL, so not playing.

 

[Justavisitor]

You will crush MD. Their roster is depleted with the loss of 3 guards. This is going to be an all season long issue for the Terps.

 

[OneTrickPony]

Great analysis DD...and I agree with speedoo...Thomas draws the Stopper (Faris). Our guards will not only turn the turtle guards over...nice picture...(see below)...but they will wear them out by the third quarter. I am anxious to see how Breanna fares against a bigger front line...this should be a great first ten minutes or so...!

 

[pinotbear]

Uconn by 35+.

I get to sit with the Boneyard mods tonight. At least they can't ban me from the game!!!![/quote]

Maybe not ban ya, DD, but if Nan is packin' duct tape....

 

[Phil]

Tonight will mark 700 consecutive games without back-to-back losses.

An odd stat, in that we know it will be true, before the game even starts.

 

[Icebear]

Uconn by 35+.

I get to sit with the Boneyard mods tonight. At least they can't ban me from the game!!!!

Maybe not ban ya, DD, but if Nan is packin' duct tape....[/quote]
What do you mean "if?" It is part of her standard DD survival kit.

 

[John Glass]

A lot has been written about losing PG (Moseley) pre-season and Mincy the other day, but they also lost 6' 7" Essence Townsend. Not a major contributor offensively, but if I were a coach, and I saw a 6' 5" center and a 6' 4" PF, I might like to see if a 6' 7" player could make their life difficult, even if she doesn't score. But she tore an ACL, so not playing.

6'7" Essence Townsend cannot play, even when she is healthy. Brenda is already making plans for the HS class of 2033, Townsend is dating 7' 1" Alex Len of the Maryland men's team, Len is expected to be a lottery pick this year.

 

[HGN]

This was going to be a difficult game for Md even if they had their team intact. Good to have the game on cable for potential recruits to see UConn in action though.

 

[thatguyed]

Fear the Turtle? I think not.

 

[HoopsHoppy]

Great analysis - and it's only late if you write after the game has started.

With their short bench and constant pressure, it's going to be interesting to see what happens when tired Terps try to keep up with a really strong (and really fast) second unit.

 

[Icebear]

Terps new motto, "Fear the Soup."

UConn fans may need new ear plugs tonight for some of the ruder turtle fans.

 

[Zorro]

Nice analysis, as always, DD. Only two quibbles. 1) KML's defensive prowess is not new-found. She was an excellent defender from day 1;, and 2) our "blue line" would not only give Md a good game, they would (imho, of course) kick their butts. I only regret that this is one of the games we will not get to see live down here, where we do not get CBS at all and local espn2 does not carry the games. Huskies by as many as Geno wants to win by. (I know he can't put in the scrubs, because we don't have any, but he can and does call off the press when it starts to get too embarrassing.)

 

[vtcwbuff]

I think Stewart/Hawkins is the matchup to watch. Can Stewart defend Hawkins?

All this chicken counting and not a single poster mentioned MOJO. How far we've come.

 

[RadyLady]

great analysis DD, thank you! can't wait to see you while I'm coming up with Wonkster tonight

Sent from my SGH-T769 using Tapatalk 2

 

[winlots]

DD - very well done, especially for an old timer. Since I only pay attention to "Our Girls," can't comment the MD analysis; on the UCONN side, would say that there will be very few, if any, who outplay Lewis this year (when healthy).

 

[winlots]

The only major thing UCONN will have to deal with tonight is MD's rebounding. They are +22. Even in the game they lost against St. Joe's they outrebounded them 47-27. UCONN by comparison is +14.

However, Maryland is only +0.4 in the turnover department. While UCONN comes in at +9.5. Here is where UCONN should be able to do some damage, especially with the inexperienced guards of Maryland. Also Maryland only goes basically 3 deep at guard. Rutan, Pavlech and the walk-on Austin (who has only been averaging around 7 minutes a game - 0 in their loss to St. Joe's). As doggy said, Thomas has taken over some of the point duties, point-foward (she leads the team in assists). So Maryland will probably have a big lineup out there a lot of the night. (bigger than what UCONN is used to seeing anyway)

MEYERS = good and interesting data. Suprising on the rebounds, eh, with the size we bring this year.

 

[winlots]

Great analysis DD...and I agree with speedoo...Thomas draws the Stopper (Faris). Our guards will not only turn the turtle guards over...nice picture...(see below)...but they will wear them out by the third quarter. I am anxious to see how Breanna fares against a bigger front line...this should be a great first ten minutes or so...!

View attachment 1877

PONY: like your turtle pic there.....sure wish I had the confidence that you ALL seem to have going in against a ranked team (even a seriously depleted one). Any time Our Girls take the floor, i feel a degree of the pre-game feelings I had as a player....including some trepidation and tension, along with a sense of wanting to leave nothing to chance and wanting nothing in the tank at the buzzer.

At the same time, my HOPE is that we cream em (certainly not saying we won't; just hoping we will).....both now and as a player, I'm not among those who have to see a close game when our team is involved.....just want to see great and unselfish basketball, sportmanship, and a score-board thumping of the oppostion.

By the way, not many of you intrepid souls have given your score predictions????

 

[DriveLH]

.Re: Stewart/Hawkins matchup, Stewart led PanAm team in rebounds as a high school junior. Only player in "games" to average more than Stewie was Erika DeSouza.