UConn / Louisville NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP game analysis

[doggydaddy]

UConn/ Louisville Final Four CHAMPIONSHIP game


Tuesday April 9th, 8:30


TV- ESPN


Uconn – 34-4 overall, 14-2 conference
Louisville – 29-8 overall, 11-5 conference


CONNECTICUT

Probable Starters
G – Doty 5’10” SR (3.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.2 apg)
F – Stewart 6’4" FR ( 13.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg, .9 apg)
G – Faris 5'11” SR (10.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 3.9 apg)
F – KML SO 6’ (17.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2.4 apg)
C – Dolson 6’5” (13.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 3.0 apg)

Bench
G - Jefferson FR 5'7" (4.8 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 1.8 apg)
G - Hartley 5’9” JR (9.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.7 apg)
F - Tuck FR 6’2” (6.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.4 apg)
C - Stokes SO 6'3" (2.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg, .7 apg)

Coach - Geno Auriemma


LOUISVILLE

Starters
G – Smith 5'10” SO (9.6 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.3 apg)
G – S Schimmel 5'9” JR (14.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.6 apg)
G – Slaughter 6'1” JR (10.2 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.5 apg)
F – Hammond 6'2” SO (10.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.1 apg)
C – Vails 6'4” JR (3.9 ppg, 2.8 rpg, .4 apg)

Bench
F – Reid 6'1” SR (9.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, .7 apg)
G – J Schimmel 5'6” SO (5.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.9 apg)
G - Walton 6'3” FR (2.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg, .3 apg)

Coach - Jeff Watz


Team Stats Uconn listed first
Points PG 82.2 72.1
Rebounds PG 42.8 37.6
Assists PG 20.5 14.6
TO/G 14.0 16.2
Opp PPG 49.1 57.6
FG % 49.6 44.2
Opp FG% 31.5 38.6
3pt % 37.4 32.6
Steals PG 10.6 11.5
Block PG 6.0 3.4


Meetings this year


Jan 15th Uconn 72 Louisville 58


Uconn had a double digit lead 10 minutes into the game and they stayed in charge the entire game. It wasn't as close as the final scored said as Uconn was up 23 with 2:09 left and UL closed out the game with a 9-0 run.

A couple of things to note. Stewart didn't play and Tuck only played 8 minutes. Louisville shot only 34% and 4-19 on 3's.


NCAA results

Uconn– 103 Idaho 37
Uconn– 77 Vanderbilt 44
Uconn– 76 Maryland 50
Uconn– 83 Kentucky 53
Uconn– 83 Notre Dame 65


Louisville– 74 Middle Tennessee 49
Louisville– 76 Purdue 63
Louisville– 82 Baylor 81
Louisville– 86 Tennessee 78
Louisville– 64 California 57


Louisville

They beat Baylor. I'm not sure you need to say more than that. You might not have liked the way they were so physical with Griner, or the in your face attitude of Shoni Schimmel, but they played out of their minds and pulled off what I consider the biggest upset in womens tournament history. They also beat a decent Tennessee team and a very solid California team. It's not longer a one game wonder, but a team that believes they can beat Uconn.

Now, how have they done it? Timely steals and incredible 3 point shooting. Maybe incredible doesn't define it. During the regular season, they shot 32% as a team on 3's. Over the last 4 games, they have shot 39-83 or 46% on 3's.

This run by Louisville and their crazy coach has been a lot of fun to watch. They will come out as the “maligned underdog” as defined by Watz and play with reckless abandon and with nothing to lose. Can this translate to one more upset?


Connecticut

There are two major stories of Uconn's NCAA run. Total defensive domination as a team and the coming of age of Brianna Stewart. Yes, Tuck and Jefferson have had their moments, Hartley seems to be back, Doslon has been hurt, KML and Fair have been their usual solid self. But these are all side stories compared to Stewart becoming a dominate player. Her 29 points on offense and 4 blocks on defense propelled Uconn past ND.

Uconn held ND without a field goal for over 7 minutes in the first half and held a terrific offensive team like Notre Dame to 29.7% from the field. Very impressive. Stewart is a game changer on defense and now that she is playing 35+ minutes her impact on the game is devastating.

Lastly, Geno is showing that he is the master motivator and manipulator, getting the team to forget about the prior losses this season to Notre Dame and truly believe they were the better team. At the risk of insulting ND, he said publicly that Uconn lost and ND didn't win. He obviously felt that the gain in confidence and performance of his team would be more of an impact that an insulted Notre Dame would bring to the game.


Final Analysis

It's hard to think that Louisville can make much of a game out of this match up. They will have to continue their hot 3 point shooting and force Uconn into a lot of mistakes. I just don't see both of those happening. Uconn has steamrolled AP #10 Maryland by 26, #7 Kentucky by 30 and #2 ND by 18. Both offense and defense are clicking. And Louisville doesn't rebound or defend particularly well, so I expect Uconn to score plenty.

Bottom line, Uconn just has too much of everything not to win this by a comfortable margin.

 

[trisailin]

Doggy - I think the Louisville record is actually 29 - 8
Though it would be a really compelling situation if the record were 34 - 1

 

[McHuskyFan]

Great analysis, per usual. We'll forgive you for leaving ND's record in there

My one worry is how beat up Stewie's gonna get when Shoni & Co giver her "The Griner Treatment".

 

[alexrgct]

One pother note- in January, KML had an uncharacteristically bad shooting performance. UConn can play a lot better than they did last time. Empirically, so can Louisville, but obviously it would be a major upset for Louisville to pull off the upset. I'll be sweating it out to the final buzzer, however.

 

[ChicagoGG]

Doggy, you rock! Thanks for the great analysis.

 

[StoningtonQB]

Great analysis, per usual. We'll forgive you for leaving ND's record in there

My one worry is how beat up Stewie's gonna get when Shoni & Co giver her "The Griner Treatment".

This isn't a one-man (woman) team like Baylor. UConn has plenty of weapons in their arsenal.

 

[baggerbob]

Can't give Breanna the Griner treatment , she runs all over the floor, you can't put 2 or 3 people on her or UConn will be shooting layups all night.

 

[cohenzone]

Yup. UConn defends as a team better than anyone Ville has played on their run, and also plays offense more multi-dimensionally than anyone they've played on their run. I don't minimize their beating of Baylor (thankfully the game wasn't 30 seconds longer, though) but they have a pretty rough choice in who to target when UConn has the ball. Their strategy worked - barely - against Baylor, but Baylor has fewer alternatives than UConn. Cal's offense never impressed me, nor did UT's. Louisville is playing their best ball of the year. So are we. A loss would surprise me. A decent margin would not.

 

[RadyLady]

I wouldn't say Baylor was a one person team, not with Sims as the point guard. HOwever when you decide to run the entire offense through Griner, then yes, it becomes a one person team. Walz just out maneuvered Kim and that's all there is to it.

That said, UConn has a lot of options on offense, and with that they can try to shut down Breanna and Kaleena, but that leaves three others who are very capable of dropping shots.

I don't want to mess with mojo and juju, especially in New Orleans, but I agree that this one may be in UConn's favor, as long as they don't walk on the court thinking that they have already won the game.

Thanks for the analysis as always DD.....how's your bracket?

 

[doggydaddy]

Doggy - I think the Louisville record is actually 29 - 8
Though it would be a really compelling situation if the record were 34 - 1

Fixed. Thanks!

 

[doggydaddy]

I wouldn't say Baylor was a one person team, not with Sims as the point guard. HOwever when you decide to run the entire offense through Griner, then yes, it becomes a one person team. Walz just out maneuvered Kim and that's all there is to it.

That said, UConn has a lot of options on offense, and with that they can try to shut down Breanna and Kaleena, but that leaves three others who are very capable of dropping shots.

I don't want to mess with mojo and juju, especially in New Orleans, but I agree that this one may be in UConn's favor, as long as they don't walk on the court thinking that they have already won the game.

Thanks for the analysis as always DD.....how's your bracket?

I stopped doing brackets. I was rooting for teams I didn't like because I picked them to win. Not fun.

 

[CompSci87]

Stewart becoming a dominate player.

Pardon my pedantry, but "dominate" is a verb. The word you want is "dominant."

 

[Kibitzer]

I think we can expect Mosqueda-Lewis to play well and score from the perimeter and in the paint. BS could follow her incredible game vs. ND with an encore. BH will play aggressively on offense and defense. KF will likely defend S. Schimmel effectively. MJ will get the call vs. J. Schimmel. CD will quarterback the offense. MT and KS will back up SD. If all goes well, HB may get meaningful minutes after replacing Mosqueda-Lewis.

 

[doggydaddy]

I think we can expect Mosqueda-Lewis to play well and score from the perimeter and in the paint. BS could follow her incredible game vs. ND with an encore. BH will play aggressively on offense and defense. KF will likely defend S. Schimmel effectively. MJ will get the call vs. J. Schimmel. CD will quarterback the offense. MT and KS will back up SD. If all goes well, HB may get meaningful minutes after replacing Mosqueda-Lewis.

Now, Kib....did you use all initials EXCEPT for KML? Just for me?

 

[VAMike23]

Now, Kib....did you use all initials EXCEPT for KML? Just for me?

If both KML and TBS (who DNP in the teams' first meeting) play well, UL will be SOL PDQ !!!

 

[jplotinus]

Doggy, you rock! Thanks for the great analysis.

Ditto.

I think the most important issue in this game is that of limiting the need for Stef to play a lot of minutes. She is injured and needs rest. Yes, she's well enough to play; and, no, she is not being unduly put at medical risk by playing. I don't think the UCONN staff would ever permit that to happen. But, IMO, they need to build a commanding lead over overmatched Louisville as early as possible. I'm hoping Stef will only have to play <20 min.

 

[Samanthabrown3]

Pardon my pedantry, but "dominate" is a verb. The word you want is "dominant."

I have a weakness for pedants.

 

[Samanthabrown3]

If all goes well, HB may get meaningful minutes after replacing Mosqueda-Lewis.

I long to see Heather in the game!

 

[Kibitzer]

Now, Kib....did you use all initials EXCEPT for KML? Just for me?

 

[VAUConnFan]

I've been busy. No time to read the analysis or through the thread(undoubtedly, it is all good), and there is no prediction thread up, so here is where my two cents are posted.

What an incredible tribute to the Big East. A swan song unlike any other.

I do not see where Louisville has even the remotest chance of winning this came or to even make it clos. Which is unfortunate for WCBB in the wake of last night's game, but it is what it is. UConn is the better team, they have all the top ballplayers, and the program has never lost in this situation. Given that a team has never beaten another team four times in one season in WCBB should have been enough for me to pick UConn Sunday night. However, if you have been rooting against Notre Dame as ardently and as long as I have, you experience more heartache than jubilation.
1. UConn is the better team
2. UConn is 7-0 in national championship games
3. Louisville has nothing closely resembling star power. UConn has three first team All Americans, an All American caliber player, two future National POY's, a Hall of Fame coach, and every unnamed intangible.
4. I do not want Lousiville to share the distinction of winning the men's and women's championship in the same season.
BTW: Last night's game was incredible. The officials missed a ton of calls, yet few are complaining.

If the game is decided on the court, as it should be, it will be UConn 84-Lousiville 55. If the officials choose to call it tightly, it will be UConn 69-Lousiville 55. Daddychoc, I know you are getting ready to call me out on making two predictions, so the one that counts, for the record, is the first, 84-55 UConn, Kelly Faris will be MOP, and this board will go absolutely nuts.

 

[Deadrody]

UConn 84-Lousiville 55.

Agree wholeheartedly.

 

[Tonyc]

They've had a great run but the HOUSE of Cards fall tonite. UConn 88 Lville 53 and that will depend on how soon Geno clears the bench.

 

[ScarlettB]

Unless Walz catering prepared the UConn team's lunch today, I don't think UConn has any chance of losing this game. I will bet it will be a very physical game.

 

[reno tony]

UConn/ Louisville Final Four CHAMPIONSHIP game


Tuesday April 9th, 8:30


TV- ESPN


Uconn – 34-4 overall, 14-2 conference
Louisville – 29-8 overall, 11-5 conference


CONNECTICUT

Probable Starters
G – Doty 5’10” SR (3.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.2 apg)
F – Stewart 6’4" FR ( 13.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg, .9 apg)
G – Faris 5'11” SR (10.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 3.9 apg)
F – KML SO 6’ (17.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2.4 apg)
C – Dolson 6’5” (13.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 3.0 apg)

Bench
G - Jefferson FR 5'7" (4.8 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 1.8 apg)
G - Hartley 5’9” JR (9.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.7 apg)
F - Tuck FR 6’2” (6.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.4 apg)
C - Stokes SO 6'3" (2.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg, .7 apg)

Coach - Geno Auriemma


LOUISVILLE

Starters
G – Smith 5'10” SO (9.6 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.3 apg)
G – S Schimmel 5'9” JR (14.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.6 apg)
G – Slaughter 6'1” JR (10.2 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.5 apg)
F – Hammond 6'2” SO (10.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.1 apg)
C – Vails 6'4” JR (3.9 ppg, 2.8 rpg, .4 apg)

Bench
F – Reid 6'1” SR (9.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, .7 apg)
G – J Schimmel 5'6” SO (5.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.9 apg)
G - Walton 6'3” FR (2.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg, .3 apg)

Coach - Jeff Watz


Team Stats Uconn listed first
Points PG 82.2 72.1
Rebounds PG 42.8 37.6
Assists PG 20.5 14.6
TO/G 14.0 16.2
Opp PPG 49.1 57.6
FG % 49.6 44.2
Opp FG% 31.5 38.6
3pt % 37.4 32.6
Steals PG 10.6 11.5
Block PG 6.0 3.4


Meetings this year


Jan 15th Uconn 72 Louisville 58


Uconn had a double digit lead 10 minutes into the game and they stayed in charge the entire game. It wasn't as close as the final scored said as Uconn was up 23 with 2:09 left and UL closed out the game with a 9-0 run.

A couple of things to note. Stewart didn't play and Tuck only played 8 minutes. Louisville shot only 34% and 4-19 on 3's.


NCAA results

Uconn– 103 Idaho 37
Uconn– 77 Vanderbilt 44
Uconn– 76 Maryland 50
Uconn– 83 Kentucky 53
Uconn– 83 Notre Dame 65


Louisville– 74 Middle Tennessee 49
Louisville– 76 Purdue 63
Louisville– 82 Baylor 81
Louisville– 86 Tennessee 78
Louisville– 64 California 57


Louisville

They beat Baylor. I'm not sure you need to say more than that. You might not have liked the way they were so physical with Griner, or the in your face attitude of Shoni Schimmel, but they played out of their minds and pulled off what I consider the biggest upset in womens tournament history. They also beat a decent Tennessee team and a very solid California team. It's not longer a one game wonder, but a team that believes they can beat Uconn.

Now, how have they done it? Timely steals and incredible 3 point shooting. Maybe incredible doesn't define it. During the regular season, they shot 32% as a team on 3's. Over the last 4 games, they have shot 39-83 or 46% on 3's.

This run by Louisville and their crazy coach has been a lot of fun to watch. They will come out as the “maligned underdog” as defined by Watz and play with reckless abandon and with nothing to lose. Can this translate to one more upset?


Connecticut

There are two major stories of Uconn's NCAA run. Total defensive domination as a team and the coming of age of Brianna Stewart. Yes, Tuck and Jefferson have had their moments, Hartley seems to be back, Doslon has been hurt, KML and Fair have been their usual solid self. But these are all side stories compared to Stewart becoming a dominate player. Her 29 points on offense and 4 blocks on defense propelled Uconn past ND.

Uconn held ND without a field goal for over 7 minutes in the first half and held a terrific offensive team like Notre Dame to 29.7% from the field. Very impressive. Stewart is a game changer on defense and now that she is playing 35+ minutes her impact on the game is devastating.

Lastly, Geno is showing that he is the master motivator and manipulator, getting the team to forget about the prior losses this season to Notre Dame and truly believe they were the better team. At the risk of insulting ND, he said publicly that Uconn lost and ND didn't win. He obviously felt that the gain in confidence and performance of his team would be more of an impact that an insulted Notre Dame would bring to the game.


Final Analysis

It's hard to think that Louisville can make much of a game out of this match up. They will have to continue their hot 3 point shooting and force Uconn into a lot of mistakes. I just don't see both of those happening. Uconn has steamrolled AP #10 Maryland by 26, #7 Kentucky by 30 and #2 ND by 18. Both offense and defense are clicking. And Louisville doesn't rebound or defend particularly well, so I expect Uconn to score plenty.

Bottom line, Uconn just has too much of everything not to win this by a comfortable margin.

Heather Buck's last game and she still gets no love.

 

[Jimdish255]

Expecting Ville to play hard, maybe get within 10 in the 2nd. But we win by 10-15 points. We need to contest their shooters on the perimeter. The rest takes care of itself. They can't effectively double anyone without getting burned if our passing is sharp.