UCONN Huskies: Big Ten's What If

[Fishy]

Oh, my.

Notre Dame basketball isn't a player in New York City.

 

[BlueMAB]

I've been to more than a few BET games at MSG. Never noticed many ND fans. In fact, there were many more Pitt fans than any team not named Saracuse or UConn.

UConn and Fruit U owned that building.

 

[RoderickSpode]

With St Johns now demoted to permanent mid-major status, ND becomes the default Catholic school for support in NYC college basketball.

Fordham basketball is more relevant in NYC than Notre Dame.

 

[justinslot]

Fordham basketball is more relevant in NYC than Notre Dame.

Or Iona, or Manhattan. Notre Dame might be as relevant as the LIU Blackbirds. Might.

 

[btstimpy]

B1G didn't do their research. They thought Rutgers was NYC's team.

Actually the Big Ten did its research when it added Nebraska, and they did determine that Rutgers is not NYC's team. They added Nebraska, and they tried to get a scheduling alliance going with the PAC 12. When the PAC12 declined to go forward with the Scheduling Alliance, and then the Big Ten lost Notre Dame for forever, they felt threatened and added Rutgers and Maryland as a reaction knowing that it will be a stretch to turn Rutgers into NYC's team. They invited them anyway.

 

[btstimpy]

Amazing how institutions of higher learning can make such uninformed decisions. Just like ACC thought BC and SU brought the Boston and NYC markets.

Well there is a whole lot more ACC on television in both of those places than there ever was before the ACC added those schools. But the ACC needs to probably get different advertisers for those broadcasts. BB&T, Food Lion, and Bojangles ads look funny in New York and Boston. We need to throw in a Tim Horton's or a Wegmans ad every once in a while to throw off the Southern viewers. We're learning.

 

[pj]

They don't need to turn Rutgers into NYC's team, they only need to turn them into New Jersey's team and it will pay off.

 

[upstater]

Nobody can dominate the NYC TV market in college football without us. ND football is required to even get close.

Nobody can dominate the NYC TV market in college basketball without Syracuse, UConn, and us. With St Johns now demoted to permanent mid-major status, ND becomes the default Catholic school for support in NYC college basketball.

Haha. Good for a belly laugh. Hilarious.

 

[SubbaBub]

Amazing how institutions of higher learning can make such uninformed decisions. Just like ACC thought BC and SU brought the Boston and NYC markets.

If you spend anytime around high level academia, it's not surprising at all. The ivory tower analogy still applies in many cases.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Your last sentence sums the issue. The BUG is the only conference that expands with weak athletics departments because they are in large tv markets, which means the BTN gets crammed onto local cable for the highest rates.

The BUG is quite happy with winning few national titles as long as it is rich and Meatchicken and Blohio State run the football part of the conference as they wish.

Do you really think calling Michigan "Meatchicken" resonates over here?

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Unfortunately, UConn will probably end up in the ACC. It will take too long for UConn to get AAU membership to gain a B1G invite, and an ACC invite would be the more likely scenario, as a long run in the AAC will be very detrimental to UConn's future as has been discussed in this blog forever. However, let's cheer up UConn fans. Realistically, if you look at P5 conference rankings in the next few years, I think the ACC will be ahead of the B1G overall in athletics. Academics matter not. The B1G will probably drop lower once they realize that the addition of RU will not bolster their presence in the Northeast, whereas the ACC probably noticed how the addition of UConn will control Maine to Miami, including NYC and Boston(which BC has failed to deliver) for them. I suspect the B1G will be too slow to act and lose out, as the first of the P5's who comes calling will probably get the date to the prom.

Realistically, there is a chance that the ACC makes up ground on the B1G if the B1G fails to make improvement in on-field performance a priority in such a way that it eschews lip service in favor of results. I don't get your Maine to Miami conclusion, however. I don't see the ACC's advantage in D.C., Phila., and NYC, the three biggest components of the northeast. NYC will likely be a stalemate with UConn and Cuse vs. Rutgers. Without a clearly dominant presence there, college sports presence will continue to languish. Philly becomes even more B1G owned as they are surrounded by Rutgers, Maryland, and Penn State. And Maryland will get the lions share of D.C. The ACC will be seriously constrained by the SEC in the south and the B1G in to north.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

I think the ACC situation is very similar to the B1G situation in regard to UConn. Both would have to go to 15 and likely wait 10-12 years for #16, unless there is a major shake-up. In the ACC the barrier to taking UConn is politics (south-v-north, football-v-bball, public-v-private), in the B1G it's AAU and football. Those obstacles make UConn arguably a marginal pickup for each. On the other hand, UConn must be key to the B1G's eastern strategy, and is surely a pivotal piece in conference vs conference competition for northeastern mindshare. I think if one of those conferences offers UConn, the other one will too. They have to ponder whether it makes sense to delay. I hope UConn keeps its cards close to the vest. Meanwhile, it has to work for an arrangement with the AAC in which it has major Tier 3 rights to sell, especially women's bball.

Love this post, pj. I've been thinking the same thing about if either the ACC or B1G offers, the other could as well. Unfortunately, that might not be good for us. If the ACC fears losing out to the B1G should it come to that, and they worry about the northeast dynamics with UConn in the B1G, what would be their incentive to offer us, especially given ND doesn't want to be our partner. Better for the ACC to let us dissipate our value in the humdrum world of the AAC until we are less attractive to the B1G and they could pick us up for the proverbial song and help us re-build.

As far as the B1G is concerned, they've got Rutgers and Maryland to digest. That's a big enough meal without adding even more to the plate. They too, don't have a partner for us. Given that they could match an ACC offer, should they choose to, and take their chances in a head-to-head bidding war, what's their incentive to make an early offer?

I'm curious, discounting the current ACC animosity, if two offers came, which would you take?

 

[Yawkey Way]

Realistically, there is a chance that the ACC makes up ground on the B1G if the B1G fails to make improvement in on-field performance a priority in such a way that it eschews lip service in favor of results. .

Good assessment, imo. The long view here is that the demographics are on the side of the ACC vs. the BIG, as the Big is still primarily a midwest league stuck in the Rust Belt, and the population shifts projected by demographers over the next few decades are decidely south, southwest, not out to the midwest. Additionally, the retirement of Bobby Bowden who stayed too long at the Dance with JF at FSU has given the ACC the lynchpin football program it dearly needed compared with the Big. The SEC will continue to be the de facto premier college football league in the country, but insofar as the comparison between the Big and the ACC, the best high school football is still played in the south and the southwest, and the ACC has a future edge here in my opinion, now that we begin to see the inevitable ACC Coaches retired and replaced with younger and more dynamic coaches.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

It's not like UConn is a stock that can be picked up more cheaply in the future. You can buy Uconn now for the absolute minimum value, and that purchase price will be the same in 5 years or 10 or 20. In fact, one could argue that UConn has more assets right now as we speak with top coaches, money for new facilities, engaged fans, etc., than it might have in 10 years, so if you purchase for the rock bottom price right now, you also get something with intrinsic value.

If these conferences are going to buy UConn in the future, there is absolutely no reason not to buy them soon. The longer UConn goes without a home, the more difficult it will be. The B1G needs to digest the two new adds first, so that might be the hangup there, but the ACC is different, and it should be adding UConn now, if it had any intention of ever adding them at all.

I was really speaking to the possibility of a bidding war now due to interest by both conferences now that might not be the case in the future. Not sure exactly how that bidding war might develop. Perhaps an offer to make us whole with respect to exit fees owed by departing mates, waiving entrance fees or lower shares during a probationary period.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Good assessment, imo. The long view here is that the demographics are on the side of the ACC vs. the BIG, as the Big is still primarily a midwest league stuck in the Rust Belt, and the population shifts projected by demographers over the next few decades are decidely south, southwest, not out to the midwest. Additionally, the retirement of Bobby Bowden who stayed too long at the Dance with JF at FSU has given the ACC the lynchpin football program it dearly needed compared with the Big. The SEC will continue to be the de facto premier college football league in the country, but insofar as the comparison between the Big and the ACC, the best high school football is still played in the south and the southwest, and the ACC has a future edge here in my opinion, now that we begin to see the inevitable ACC Coaches retired and replaced with younger and more dynamic coaches.

Lot of good points Yawkey and, in my opinion, a better and more productive approach to conversation than some of the baiting you've offered in other threads. As far as the demographics go, greater population growth rates in the southeast will take a long, long time (>50 years) to get the ACC's base up to that of the B1G, especially if the B1G is the big winner in the northeast. And the ACC probably doesn't have majority ownership of the five South Atlantic states (VA, NC, SC, GA, and FL) and so don't get the full benefit of population growth there.

 

[Gfunk]

Good assessment, imo. The long view here is that the demographics are on the side of the ACC vs. the BIG, as the Big is still primarily a midwest league stuck in the Rust Belt, and the population shifts projected by demographers over the next few decades are decidely south, southwest, not out to the midwest. Additionally, the retirement of Bobby Bowden who stayed too long at the Dance with JF at FSU has given the ACC the lynchpin football program it dearly needed compared with the Big. The SEC will continue to be the de facto premier college football league in the country, but insofar as the comparison between the Big and the ACC, the best high school football is still played in the south and the southwest, and the ACC has a future edge here in my opinion, now that we begin to see the inevitable ACC Coaches retired and replaced with younger and more dynamic coaches.

A lot of your points are valid, but this demography angle is genuine overstatement and misunderstanding on how population growth works. I can't post here much from this point on, back to work after a week and change off - always take time off for March Madness and the Frozen Four, spring cleaning as well. But my profession is Urban-Regional Planning. Few things & I'll spare the typical stats and spreadsheet calculations truly used when evaluating demography issues, which is routine in my line of work:

High School Football has been much better in the Southeast and Texas compared to the rest of the country for a long time - this is not a recent trend. There is plenty of qualitative-quantitative data out there to prove my point. BIG schools especially recruited the South from the 50s - to early 70s during segregation periods for many southern schools. Nearly every Pro Football Hall of Famer that has worn a Minnesota Gopher uniform is from the South. I think people forget a league like the SEC had to expand, mostly in region until aTm and Mizzou, to optimize its recruiting footprint & of course de-segregate its membership which haunted them until the early 70s. But it still took time to activate this membership and optimize program values & of course generate even greater regional interest & this league has clearly known about its built in resources, advantages for long, long time. Bottom line, hs talent in the Southeast-Southwest is embedded in a culture of year-round development. The weather absolutely helps because the construction of indoor facilities is not as necessary as colder regions, thus cost effective savings. Now think about Illinois & Indiana basketball, Mass or Minnesota hockey - each these states are consistently top shelf in sports they care to develop: hockey and basketball. Again, culture plays a huge role.

Often basketball talent leaves the Midwest or Northeast to play at well established blue bloods in the South or periphery (Kentucky). But the talent is still rich in these regions. Every single year basketball recruiting rankings are comprised of mucho, mucho talent from the Midwest and Northeast - no changes due to these Rust Belt decay myths. Now look at where a lot of the Midwest-Northeast kids end up signing. The reverse doesn't happen as much - southern kids don't exactly come up north to play hoops. It's often simply a weather thing and change of scenery for the Midwest kids - Minnesota had 3 top 30 basketball recruits this year - they largely left for weather, existential reasons & schools that are either known for basketball or truly special academic institutions: Duke, Stanford and UNLV. These kids are not leaving because of doom and gloom Rust Belt apocalypse constantly propagated by southern homers and esp ND fans who blame lack of recruits on their recent big stage flops. Some people are genuinely curious about the world & choose the more adventurous routes.

The BIG footprint, eastern part aside, is not exclusively Rust Belt: much of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Western & Southern Illinois and Nebraska just don't fit the Rust Belt mold. I live in Minneapolis, despite the extensive freakish cold here, this is a thriving city and state & has been since I can remember. Ultra fast growth, not exactly, but consistent and wisely done, yes.

Lastly, you need to evaluate some of the growth in the Southeast-Southwest - a lot of it is based on immigrants, new Americans, retirees, young people who don't permanently settle & also think, hmmmmmmmmmmm, "let's move to the Southeast-Southwest to raise kids so they can be football stars". I mean really.

Let's give more positive credit to the SEC for a change - nearly every member has valued football for a at least half of century, the fans care, and until recently, professional football didn't even register in most of the states. Bama, Ky, SC, Ark & Miss will likely never share their states with an NFL team. The geography is compact and most important, again, the cultural passion is quite strong, and certainly stronger than any other region.

 

[Gfunk]

Lot of good points Yawkey and, in my opinion, a better and more productive approach to conversation than some of the baiting you've offered in other threads. As far as the demographics go, greater population growth rates in the southeast will take a long, long time (>50 years) to get the ACC's base up to that of the B1G, especially if the B1G is the big winner in the northeast. And the ACC probably doesn't have majority ownership of the five South Atlantic states (VA, NC, SC, GA, and FL) and so don't get the full benefit of population growth there.

Spot on, though some holes.

The ACC will always share the more essential states of its footprint in terms of football with the SEC & then schools like Lville, Pitt and yes, ND, must deal with in-state schools that are bigger draws: PSU (football), Ky (basketball), IU (basketball). If strategy is in their cards, which I believe is - they need to optimize their strengths in Va & NC, no SEC teams, Florida, where they have two power programs to the SEC's one, and a school like GT needs to follow the Stanford model & hold its own against UGa like the Cardinal against USC.

The ACC also has built-in rivalry games in Clemson-SCar & Tenn-Vandy. But let's be fair, Vandy sits in an international city that loves their music and professional teams as well, they will always be little brother to the Vols. Vandy is like Pitt or Minnesota, urban campuses that integrate with a much larger population that have passions and priorities beyond college loyalty - lately Miami has encountered this reality. People forget that most successful football programs are often based in isolated college towns, though Miami and USC have proven to be exceptions, but LA has no NFL team. NC definitely has football talent, but it's crowded with 4 ACC schools and basketball is still the most prized prep sport in that state. Throw in the fact that NC is dealing with realities Northeast and Midwest states have endured for decades - professional sports. NC has landed all of its professional teams within the past 25 years. Va is what I'd call an underachieving state in terms of successful football programs that optimize in-state talent, much like Illinois in the BIG with all of its routine basketball blue chips. VT has risen to a consistent power, esp under ACC membership - but their coach is nearing retirement.

Take care.

 

[Gfunk]

We have no idea what's going to happen in the next few decades. Environmental shifts might create whole new migrations. I do know that it is not a bad idea to own real estate near the biggest bodies of fresh water on earth. Something tells me that in the future, there will be a premium on fresh water.

Actually you should Google Fresh Water Aquifers - there are some massive, untapped ones around the world - granted exploiting them will be tremendously difficult and costly, esp the ones along he Antarctica coast line.

 

[Seaa Blue]

Actually you should Google Fresh Water Aquifers - there are some massive, untapped ones around the world - granted exploiting them will be tremendously difficult and costly, esp the ones along he Antarctica coast line.

Or you could simply put a house down just about anywhere in Minnesota. It might be slightly warmer than the Antarctic

 

[husky10]

The ACC also has built-in rivalry games in Clemson-SCar & Tenn-Vandy. But let's be fair, Vandy sits in an international city that loves their music and professional teams as well, they will always be little brother to the Vols. Vandy is like Pitt or Minnesota, urban campuses that integrate with a much larger population that have passions and priorities beyond college loyalty - lately Miami has encountered this reality..

Vanderbilt is in the SEC, Tenn-Vandy is an SEC conference game.

 

[Gfunk]

Vanderbilt is in the SEC, Tenn-Vandy is an SEC conference game.

File that one under bonehead, I knew as much.

 

[Gfunk]

Or you could simply put a house down just about anywhere in Minnesota. It might be slightly warmer than the Antarctic

We don't have as much water as advertised & it's all the same sub 10 F

But seriously, draining a lake for human consumption - man that has a lot more damaging, long term effects than spoken.

Btw, the reality of massive freshwater aquifers are beyond interesting science. And the risks of tapping them are substantially less than a lot of the ocean floor oil deposits. A freshwater spill into the ocean seems a bit more harmless than black gold.

 

[Ldandy]

They don't need to turn Rutgers into NYC's team, they only need to turn them into New Jersey's team and it will pay off.

Correct. I'm still amazed some people don't grasp this. Delany is not banking on RU bringing NYC. The idea is ridiculous. No single team brings NYC. You need a combination of teams to even make a dent in the market. That said if you want to try, UCONN is one of those teams you need.

 

[HuskyPete]

Rutgers is AAU and has more TV sets

Rutgers has more TV sets and this is what Rutgers fans will be watching,
http://thebiglead.com/2014/03/13/sa...-sums-up-rutgers-61-point-loss-to-louisville/

 

[TerryD]

I want to commend you on the courage you are demonstrating by insulting the Big Ten, Ohio State and Michigan on a UConn board. Sheer courage man.

You started another thread how UConn belongs in the ACC. You do realize you can help with that? Join the ACC as their 15th school in all sports. UConn will walk into the ACC as the 16th school right behind you on your red carpet.

I would not wait on that. It is not likely to happen, especially any time soon.

 

[TerryD]

It may very well be the case that UConn joins the ACC before the B1G and it certainly should if the ACC is the first of the two conferences to extend an invitation. However, my impression – although the ACC posters can correct me if I am wrong – is that the ACC will likely not pursue further expansion in the hopes that Notre Dame will eventually elect to join full time as the 15th school at which time a 16th school such as UConn would be added. What is the likelihood that Notre Dame will join the ACC full time? It is my impression - although the Notre Dame posters can correct me if I am wrong - that Notre Dame intends to remain independent in football for the forseeable future.

Absolutely.

 

[djct1999]

NYC is vital to the long-term brand and health of either league. UConn is not a marginal addition in any realm of analysis. Its quite simple actually. Whoever adds UConn, wins. The other loses.