Re the Big O, I was very confident about our chances a couple of years ago. She obviously liked Uconn, a Croatian connection with Nika, and she was in the northeast. In fact I thought she was a likely early commit.
It is possible our odds have not diminished, but if someone is a heavy lean towards one school, it seems odd to me they would have such a large initial "short" list and then a second finalist list, and be taking so many visits. Could just be due diligence, but I used to feel she was close to a lock, and now it feels more like we are just one of several top contenders. Who knows, time will tell.