I'd sign for 5 right now. I wouldn't even care which 5. But, to say we have a tough schedule is silly. It's tough for a 100+ level team. It's not tough for a 60-70 ranked team. 60-70 is bowl eligible level and while we are certainly not that, I have a hard time swallowing that there is a huge difference in athleticism between team 70 and team 100. 130 is another story but I think there is less difference between 100 and 130. Committment, culture (coaching) and execution should next you at least an upset or two.
CCSU, UMass, FIU and Ball State (mid-level MAC) team have to be must wins. Army (again, execution) and pick off Cuse is the most likely path to 5-6. I'm all in on this concept of critical mass in terms of filling a couple gaping holes in the roster and a competent scheme would make a huge difference.
Then again, I can easily see us holding on against CCSU and FIU and winning a jump ball with UMass for a 3 win season. Crap, Mora has a lot of work to do.