UConn Eye Test Case for the B12

[nelsonmuntz]

In the event (which I think is very slim) that the ACC wanted to go to a hybrid model and the Big East schools, who rejected the hybrid approach when they left to form the current Big East are suddenly willing to entertain it... I don't see a wholesale merger. The ACC has the money and the power... they can be selective; they're not chasing Butler/DePaul (they have Notre Dame covering Indy & Chicago). Providence is stuck between BC & UConn & may be left out, while St. John's and Villanova would probably make the cut.

That would be stupid and self destructive for all involved. No one is doing that.

UConn’s strength is that there is only one UConn. There are no other expansion options for the ACC, except maybe Boise. There are certainly no expansion candidates that 1) bring a basketball brand name, 2) have a credible football program, 3) bring a valuable market. Every year this reality becomes more pronounced.

The ACC is not going to add a handful of basketball only programs and these programs wouldn’t leave the Big East. The biggest and most obvious reason is that the ACC can’t afford to buy them, nor are the Big East schools in a desperate situation financially. A full merger gives both sides security and brings the Big East basketball agreement with the schools to pay for it.

It may be too late to matter. With House, there are likely several ACC schools that are fine running out the current contract and gradually downgrading athletics. There is little incentive for these schools to do anything big to change their trajectory.

 

[Hoophound]

That would be stupid and self destructive for all involved. No one is doing that.

UConn’s strength is that there is only one UConn. There are no other expansion options for the ACC, except maybe Boise. There are certainly no expansion candidates that 1) bring a basketball brand name, 2) have a credible football program, 3) bring a valuable market. Every year this reality becomes more pronounced.

The ACC is not going to add a handful of basketball only programs and these programs wouldn’t leave the Big East. The biggest and most obvious reason is that the ACC can’t afford to buy them, nor are the Big East schools in a desperate situation financially. A full merger gives both sides security and brings the Big East basketball agreement with the schools to pay for it.

It may be too late to matter. With House, there are likely several ACC schools that are fine running out the current contract and gradually downgrading athletics. There is little incentive for these schools to do anything big to change their trajectory.

The Big East better step up on the court and make sure people want to watch or the next contract is going to suck. I’m not sure the Big East can make it past 2030 being referred to as a “major”. I’m not even sure it will make it another year or two with that designation in mainstream media.

It is looking more and more like some sort of old Big East/ACC is going to be forced to merge in the early 2030’s.

UConn
Cuse
BC
Duke
Wake
Temple
USF
UL

Nova
SJU
Georgetown
Providence
Seton Hall

Maybe: NC St, VTech, Pitt——even one of Miami or FSU is possible. It doesn’t look to me like there will be more than 40 spots in the Power Conferences based what’s been going on. Otherwise, the B12 is going to have to be massive in member numbers.

 

[uconnfan68]

People get hung up on New Haven Hartford being the 33rd, or thereabouts, biggest media market in the country, but that excludes all of Fairfield County, which a part of the New York City DMA.

To me the more relevant demographic number is that there are 24 million people within 125 miles of a Storrs, Connecticut. Few other universities can match that.

The problem with that is that many top rated schools reside in that area. We don't get the entire region's allegiance.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The problem with that is that many top rated schools reside in that area. We don't get the entire region's allegiance.

There are a lot of Ivy/Little Ivy undergrads that are also UConn basketball fans.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The Big East better step up on the court and make sure people want to watch or the next contract is going to suck. I’m not sure the Big East can make it past 2030 being referred to as a “major”. I’m not even sure it will make it another year or two with that designation in mainstream media.

It is looking more and more like some sort of old Big East/ACC is going to be forced to merge in the early 2030’s.

UConn
Cuse
BC
Duke
Wake
Temple
USF
UL

Nova
SJU
Georgetown
Providence
Seton Hall

Maybe: NC St, VTech, Pitt——even one of Miami or FSU is possible. It doesn’t look to me like there will be more than 40 spots in the Power Conferences based what’s been going on. Otherwise, the B12 is going to have to be massive in member numbers.

Sure. Or maybe the P2 start cutting loose conference mates who are hangers on.

Or maybe college sports figured out that if it slashes the sports to just rural schools in poor southern states and legacy universities in shrinking midwestern states that the sport will reach a tipping point and collapse.

There are a lot of ifs.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

The Big East better step up on the court and make sure people want to watch or the next contract is going to suck. I’m not sure the Big East can make it past 2030 being referred to as a “major”. I’m not even sure it will make it another year or two with that designation in mainstream media.

It is looking more and more like some sort of old Big East/ACC is going to be forced to merge in the early 2030’s.

UConn
Cuse
BC
Duke
Wake
Temple
USF
UL

Nova
SJU
Georgetown
Providence
Seton Hall

Maybe: NC St, VTech, Pitt——even one of Miami or FSU is possible. It doesn’t look to me like there will be more than 40 spots in the Power Conferences based what’s been going on. Otherwise, the B12 is going to have to be massive in member numbers.

It could play out that way/something like that. I think the top ACC brands that do leave (whether it's just 2 or up to 6 or even 8) will do so a year or two before 2030 because the conferences that do the poaching (SEC/Big10 and maybe the Big12) will bring in the new schools a season or two before they start their TV negotiations so as to have more leverage as opposed to until their contracts expire. We'll definitely know more over the next 2 years.

 

[Hoophound]

It could play out that way/something like that. I think the top ACC brands that do leave (whether it's just 2 or up to 6 or even 8) will do so a year or two before 2030 because the conferences that do the poaching (SEC/Big10 and maybe the Big12) will bring in the new schools a season or two before they start their TV negotiations so as to have more leverage as opposed to until their contracts expire. We'll definitely know more over the next 2 years.

Interesting. I was thinking they’d just run “what if?” scenarios.

 

[CL82]

The problem with that is that many top rated schools reside in that area. We don't get the entire region's allegiance.

Whom are you thinking about? There are only minimal FBS schools with in those 125 miles. BC and UMass come to mind and neither of them really claim any significant allegiance.

 

[greenday61892]

That would be stupid and self destructive for all involved. No one is doing that.

UConn’s strength is that there is only one UConn. There are no other expansion options for the ACC, except maybe Boise. There are certainly no expansion candidates that 1) bring a basketball brand name, 2) have a credible football program, 3) bring a valuable market. Every year this reality becomes more pronounced.

The ACC is not going to add a handful of basketball only programs and these programs wouldn’t leave the Big East. The biggest and most obvious reason is that the ACC can’t afford to buy them, nor are the Big East schools in a desperate situation financially. A full merger gives both sides security and brings the Big East basketball agreement with the schools to pay for it.

It may be too late to matter. With House, there are likely several ACC schools that are fine running out the current contract and gradually downgrading athletics. There is little incentive for these schools to do anything big to change their trajectory.

Do you genuinely think that the Catholic 7 will willingly put themselves right back into the very same situation that was the progenitor of the schism in the first place?

 

[Stinger92860]

Or maybe the P2 start cutting loose conference mates who are hangers on /ENDQUOTE

The greed of the p2 means that at some point growth must eventually come at the expense of schools that do not move the needle. Eventually there will be performance bonuses followed by getting rid of the bottom feeders. The move to streaming will make this happen sooner or later.

 

[ArtTheFan]

Geography is no longer rooted in conference affiliation.

Yorrmark has stated that he wants the New York market. UConn's closeness the NYC provides enough eyeballs to capture a significant amount of cable viewership not to mention most of New England.

Yes. UConn would be an outlier, but that's not different that Cal and Stanford in the ACC.

UConn would instantly legitimize the Big 12 as the premier basketball conference. The football team did so much better then the bottom half of the Big 12 and has momentum.

Our athletic programs are all competitive.

There is no longer any reason to keep UConn out of a major conference.

Once we arrive in a major conference, like Hurley said, you better get us now cause we're coming

As you said, Geography is no longer rooted in conference affiliation. Which is very true, I mean Missouri is not the Southeast and unless someone decided to name the Pacific as Western Atlantic Ocean, Stanford and Cal aren't on the Atlantic Coast. UCLA and USC is further away from Rutgers than we would be with any team in the Big 12.

 

[Jimdish255]

As you said, Geography is no longer rooted in conference affiliation. Which is very true, I mean Missouri is not the Southeast and unless someone decided to name the Pacific as Western Atlantic Ocean, Stanford and Cal aren't on the Atlantic Coast. UCLA and USC is further away from Rutgers than we would be with any team in the Big 12.

For us right now the major factors are whether Hurley and Auriemma can keep us at or near the top long enough to be in consideration near the ACC contract expiration. And Candle needs to work out for football. It appears we are becoming an outlier in BE Hoops as the conference slides back in the overall power rankings and that doesn't bode well for the nostalgia crowd who wants to live in the past as long as possible. The problem isn't us, it's just that it's out of our control too a degree. Like a market bubble it's difficult to predict the expiration date but BE hoops is not immune to financial and competitive realities.

 

[JwittersPAC]

Whom are you thinking about? There are only minimal FBS schools with in those 125 miles. BC and UMass come to mind and neither of them really claim any significant allegiance.

The issue is both NYC and Boston are pro sport cities. Most of the interest in college sports comes from alumni that moved to either Boston or NY

Whom are you thinking about? There are only minimal FBS schools with in those 125 miles. BC and UMass come to mind and neither of them really claim any significant allegiance.

The issue is Boston and NYC are pro sport cities. The main interest in college sports comes from alumni that have moved to those cities.

 

[CL82]

The issue is both NYC and Boston are pro sport cities. Most of the interest in college sports comes from alumni that moved to either Boston or NY

The issue is Boston and NYC are pro sport cities. The main interest in college sports comes from alumni that have moved to those cities.

No doubt, but that doesn't change the demographics. There are 27 million people within 125 mile radius of Storrs. Those 27 million people have an average income of about $92,000 a year. Those are really outstanding figures.

I agree that much of the interest interest in college sports is likely to be from college alumni who have moved into that area. Given the proximity to the school, a lot of of them are going to be Connecticut fans, but the fact that they could be say Kansas fans, or Baylor fans should be appealing to the big 12. The fact that they could be say Duke or Georgia Tech fans should be appealing to the ACC.

I suspect that that is what Brett Yormark sees. Focusing on the Hartford/New Haven DMA is getting locked into a half century old advertising concept that was based upon the reach of antenna television stations. It has no realistic application in the modern world.

 

[Hoophound]

No doubt, but that doesn't change the demographics. There are 27 million people within 125 mile radius of Storrs. Those 27 million people have an average income of about $92,000 a year. Those are really outstanding figures.

I agree that much of the interest interest in college sports is likely to be from college alumni who have moved into that area. Given the proximity to the school, a lot of of them are going to be Connecticut fans, but the fact that they could be say Kansas fans, or Baylor fans should be appealing to the big 12. The fact that they could be say Duke or Georgia Tech fans should be appealing to the ACC.

I suspect that that is what Brett Yormark sees. Focusing on the Hartford/New Haven DMA is getting locked into a half century old advertising concept that was based upon the reach of antenna television stations. It has no realistic application in the modern world.

And Hartford New Haven is a good size market anyway.

 

[Kolumbo]

Do you genuinely think that the Catholic 7 will willingly put themselves right back into the very same situation that was the progenitor of the schism in the first place?

Absolutely. The C-7 and the football schools had a great thing going before the split, more than they realized. A lot has changed since the split. The Big XII and SEC have grown and are better at hoops. Finances have changed. If UConn leaves the Big East is toast.

 

[SU1968]

Absolutely. The C-7 and the football schools had a great thing going before the split, more than they realized. A lot has changed since the split. The Big XII and SEC have grown and are better at hoops. Finances have changed. If UConn leaves the Big East is toast.

If UConn leaves the Big East, that conference could still be good if they want to spend the money. You may find a non-traditional school with a sugar daddy with deep pockets. With NIL, any school willing to cough up the bucks can buy a BB contender every year, regardless of conference. Buying a contender in FB is a bigger reach, but can be done.

 

[Hoophound]

If UConn leaves the Big East, that conference could still be good if they want to spend the money. You may find a non-traditional school with a sugar daddy with deep pockets. With NIL, any school willing to cough up the bucks can buy a BB contender every year, regardless of conference. Buying a contender in FB is a bigger reach, but can be done.

It is pretty clear that the networks are going to kill off the ACC and Big East next. The best way of handling that is a sensible merger of the remaining parts.

 

[CL82]

And Hartford New Haven is a good size market anyway.

Yeah, I think it's like 32nd or 33rd in the nation, something like that.

 

[B1GEast]

I have think it is pretty clear that the networks are gong to kill off the ACC and Big East next. The best way of handling that is a sensible merger of the remaining parts.

Networks aren’t killing the ACC or Big East. Networks extract value from leagues they already control.

The problem with the ACC has is that it has a mispriced media deal. The ACC still delivers large markets in both football and basketball. This gives the ACC relative strength.

The Big East survived by dropping football and becoming a basketball only product. That's very easy for networks to market and distribute. NIL doesn’t replace a conference's existing gravity or influence tournament paths.

What’s happening right now is that they are reclassifying conference tiering. The B1G and the SEC are now positioning themselves as the premier basketball conferences. There's no pending collapse, just a shuffling of who's more relevant.

 

[CL82]

The Big East survived by dropping football and becoming a basketball only product. That's very easy for networks to market and distribute. NIL doesn’t replace a conference's existing gravity or influence tournament paths.

That's not actually what happened. The big East was a hybrid conference, and the non-football playing schools decided to leave the conference. The conference agreed to, in essence, sell the name "the big east conference" to the departing schools. In my view, giving up that branding was a mistake.

 

[B1GEast]

That's not actually what happened. The big East was a hybrid conference, and the non-football playing schools decided to leave the conference. The conference agreed to, in essence, sell the name "the big east conference" to the departing schools. In my view, giving up that branding was a mistake.

You're right , I just remember them dropping UConn. I misspoke.

 

[Hoophound]

Networks aren’t killing the ACC or Big East. Networks extract value from leagues they already control.

The problem with the ACC has is that it has a mispriced media deal. The ACC still delivers large markets in both football and basketball. This gives the ACC relative strength.

The Big East survived by dropping football and becoming a basketball only product. That's very easy for networks to market and distribute. NIL doesn’t replace a conference's existing gravity or influence tournament paths.

What’s happening right now is that they are reclassifying conference tiering. The B1G and the SEC are now positioning themselves as the premier basketball conferences. There's no pending collapse, just a shuffling of who's more relevant.

If you define extracting value as extracting the most valuable properties and putting them in other leagues, then yes. This has been going on for years. I don’t blame them, I’m just saying that the writing is on the wall. The ACC and Big East are already being diminished in the national conversation by their own networks.

The Big East will lose UConn and turn into the A10 and the ACC will turn into the old Big East. Otherwise, the current Big East will merge with the ACC remainders, UConn and USF.

 

[XStorrsion]

Even if the SEC, B10, and XII pick off the top 8 ACC schools (ND, Clemson, FSU, Miami, UNC, UVA, NCST, GT), it would seem like there's a more valuable conference to be made by adding G5's than Big East non-football schools.

Syracuse
BC
Pitt
UConn

VT
Louisville
Memphis
Temple

Duke
Wake
USF
Tulane

SMU
Cal
Stanford
Rice

 

[B1GEast]

Syracuse
BC
Pitt
UConn

VT
Louisville
Memphis
Temple

Duke
Wake
USF
Tulane or SMU

I would stop here