UConn / Duke Analysis

[doggydaddy]

Boy, two days between games is tough on Geno, the players and me.

#4 Duke is coming!!!

UConn vs Duke Monday, 7:00 Gampel.

Overall series is 8-3 in favor of Uconn. More recently, Duke and Uconn have met the last 3 years and the results have been overwhelmingly in UConn's favor.

2009-10 Uconn 81 Duke 48
2010-11 Uconn 87 Duke 51
2011-12 Uconn 61 Duke 45

A similar question asked about SU can be asked about Duke. Will this year be like every other year or will be be like 2003-4?
UConn comes into this game off a terrific effort against Syracuse, pulling away for a 25 point win. Duke is coming off a low scoring affair with Virginia Tech, allowing only 26 points. They only scored 58 themselves. I think they shut off the shot clock for this game. Duke goes a true 8-9 deep and they obviously play excellent defense. They also have 5 players that shoot over 44% on 3's. Uconn better be ready to guard the perimeter. I have a feeling this game will be closer than the last 3 games these two have played.

On to the matchups.

PG – Doty 5’10” SR (3.9 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.6 apg) vs Gray 5’11” JR (14 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 6.3 apg)
Gray is one of the most complete guards in the wcbb today. She can rebound, shoot and boy can she create. I love watching her play. She is a true leader too. As is Doty. But she will struggle with Gray and could see limited minutes if she can't stay with Gray. She will need to take care of the ball against a tough defense.

Advantage Duke
SG – Hartley 5’9” JR (8.9 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 3.0 apg) vs Jones 5’8” FR (7.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.6 apg)
A healthy Hartley and this is really a no contest matchup. But we don't know which Hartley will be available and for how long during the game. She has shown flashes of the old Hartley, but against SU she turned her ankle over again. Jones is the “other” Texas guard from last years class and she has earned a starting job on this team. A nice handle, she has shot the 3 well in limited attempts. She also has quick hands, 2nd on the team in steals.


AdvantageUconn (If Hartley can stay on the court).

SF – Faris 5'11” SR (10.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 4.6 apg) vs Liston 6’1” JR (12.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 2.0 apg)
Liston is the big 3 point threat for Duke. Shooting 46% on 3's, she averages two makes per game. At 6'1”, she uses her height to get off her long range shooting. She is not the best defender and will struggle to cover Kelly and keep her from penetrating. Kelly has overpassed lately but I expect that to stop. She will give Liston trouble with her quick hands.


AdvantageUConn
PF – KML SO 6’ (17.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.3 apg) vs Peters 6’3” JR (12.1 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 2.0 apg)
Peters is another terrific 3 point shooter, but only takes a little more than 1 per game on average. Don't leave her open. A solid rebounder , she uses her size to her advantage in tandem with Williams. Lewis will have to use her strength to keep Peters off the boards. But at the same time, Peters will really struggle to defend the offensive minded Lewis. KML looks to be back on track.

Advantage UConn

C – Dolson 6’5” (13.8 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 3.6 apg) vs Williams 6’3” SO (15.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg, .9 apg)
Williams has rounded into form after her early season health issues. An excellent off the ball defender and one of the leading shot blockers at over 3 per game. Just a dynamo in the paint. After the last game, how can you not say that Dolson is the 2nd best center in the country AND the most rounded. Her elbow jumper and deadeye passing along with her post up game with either hand make her a triple threat.

Advantage Very small advantage to UConn

Bench – Uconn - Stewart 6’4" FR ( 14.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg, .8 apg), Tuck FR 6’2” (6.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.4 apg), Banks SO 5’9” (7.9 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 1.9 apg), Jefferson FR 5'7" (3.9 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.8 apg), Stokes SO 6'3" (2.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, .6 apg) vs Vernerey 6’5” SR (4.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.3 apg), Moore 5’10” FR (4.1 ppg, 1.5 rpg, .7 apg), Johnson 5’10” SO (3.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, .3 apg), Wells 5’7” JR (4.5 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 1.1 apg)

Total stats off the bench – Uconn – 35, 17.9, 6.5. Duke 16.7, 10.3, 3.4)
Duke plays the entire bench as does Uconn when everyone is healthy. But with Stewart coming off the bench, Uconn has the advantage. Tuck is playing big in the paint but Banks has not contributed like she did earlier. Vernerey has been there for 20 years. She will grab some rebounds and make some putbacks. Wells can have hot games. The other bench players are there to give starters some rest.

Advantage UConn

Geno Auriemma vs Joannie McCallie

Geno has done a great job balancing the lineup with all the injuries. He certainly has McCallie's number while at Duke. She is a solid coach that needs to get over the hump to get to that next level. A win against Uconn would go a long way to get to that point.

Advantage UConn

Intangibles – Gampel is a tough place for an opponent to play. Small, loud, and a terrific student section. Uconn's recent success against Duke gives them the psycological edge.

Advantage UConn
Team Stats UConn listed first
Points PG 84 79.0
Rebounds PG 42.4 42.9
Assists PG 21.6 17.9
TO/G 14.2 15.6
Opponents PPG 47.5 48.2
FG % 49.6 48.4
Opponents FG% 30.6 32.5
3pt % 37.0 43.2
SOS per Realtime RPI UConn 4 Duke 83

Final analysis – It's hard to analyze a team that hasn't played a lot of tough competition. They have played RPI #6 Cal and #23 Michigan, winning both those games by 15 and 17 points. But they beat NCST by only 10, not a real powerhouse. That being said, Duke is good. Real good. A top 5 point guard and a top 5 center with excellent complimentary players. The difference maker is the home court advantage and Uconn is just better. I'm so happy I have tickets to this game.

Final prediction – UConn in a reasonably close game. 7-10 points.

 

[triaddukefan]

bout time you posted this.... been waiting all day for it

 

[EricLA]

I know I'm in the minority but I see this as a game Duke wins. UCONN seems like they are a tad out of sorts and between the lingering injuries, and kids trying to come back from being injured/sick, I see Duke winning a close one 63-61. I'm sure there will be a "guess the score" thread, but UCONN struggled against ND, which is a guard driven team. Given that Hartley is maybe semi-injured again, and Doty, while solid, is no match for Gray, I think Duke's guards control the game and eek out a win. Let's hope I'm proven wrong!!

 

[doggydaddy]

bout time you posted this.... been waiting all day for it

I'd love your take on my take.

 

[msf22b]

Doggy was pretty much spot on for 'Cuse, and usually I'am the official worry wart
But not this time.
With all the difficulties that guard lack of production has caused
I still sense a pretty big win for UConn.
In the 2nd half, they just figured out how to score almost at will.
And I think it will carry forward to this game.
10-15 point win.

 

[doggydaddy]

Doggy was pretty much spot on for 'Cuse, and usually I'am the official worry wart
But not this time.
With all the difficulties that guard lack of production has caused
I still sense a pretty big win for UConn.
In the 2nd half, they just figured out how to score almost at will.
And I think it will carry forward to this game.
10-15 point win.

Now I'm worried.

 

[Tonyc]

Our defense will carry us. Stef and Breanna will cause fits for Duke. Uconn by 15+. If UConn is hot from behind the line its over early. UConn has been stumbleing forward all year. If UConn can stay out of foul trouble and away from injuries againest Duke they will be fine. Success againest Duke is spelt Stewart and Stef. This is something teams in WCBB havent seen They play defense and they can score inside and out.

 

[huskyharry]

It is not clear to me why Duke is not ranked number 1. They started the season as a top five team and have beaten all comers while the teams ahead of them each dropped a game.
We are doomed, clearly DOOMED!

 

[UConnCat]

Great job DD.

With a healthy Hartley I would expect UConn to win this game easily. With Hartley not herself and with Stokes also a question mark, this game will be closer though I still think UConn should win it. UConn won last year on Duke's home court despite Dolson playing only 13 minutes, despite KML making only 2 shots and despite turning the ball over a lot. It helped that Duke only shot 26%.

Duke shoots well from the 3-point line but it doesn't take a lot of 3s and most of them are by Liston who struggles against good defensive teams. This Duke team runs better offense than in previous years but scoring won't come easily against a good defensive team like UConn.

Duke plays mostly a match-up zone and will likely focus a lot of attention on Dolson, particularly at the high post. I expect UConn to go to Dolson early and often both down low and at the high post with Stewart in the game. Duke does not close out on perimeter shooters very well so I expect UConn's ball movement will generate a lot of open shots. Stewart will probably be guarded by Peters who is a tough, scrappy player. I think Stewart's size should allow her to score on Peters down low. I also expect UConn will be able to beat Duke down the court in transition as it has done in the past 3 match-ups.

 

[jplotinus]

Among the starters, Duke has a height advantage at 3 positions, UCONN just 2. In addition, while Doty, KML, Faris and Banks are each listed at a different height ranging from 5-9 to 6-0, it appeared to me, seeing them at the Syracuse game, that the 4 of them are just about the same height. So, from what I could see, either Banks is taller than 5-9 or KML is shorter than 6-0. My guess is that all 4 are roughly 5-10ish.

Thus, the height advantage may be even greater than the stats suggest. Duke 's starting 5 are as listed at 5-11, 5-8, 6-1, 6-3, 6-3. With UCONN, I'm assuming a 5-10 everywhere except Dolson.

UCONN's bench provides an equalizer by adding a significant height component of its own. The game might actually be decided by the quality of the bench play.

I think Stewart may be due for a breakout game in primetime. If that happens, Duke will likely lose badly, yet again. A key factor may be whether Stewart can come in and provide instant offense, rather than instant inconsistency. Stewart, Banks, Moriah, Kiah and Tuck all need to have good outings. I think they will.

Based on the uconn bench, I foresee a low stress game, with the outcome not being in much doubt from start to finish.

 

[Tonyc]

Uconn has alot of players who can put up alot of points in a hurry. UConn defense wont let that happen againest them. UConn by a conservative 15+. Cuse was quick with great outside shooters. We killed them underneath. We will do the same to Duke. Willams who is Dukes leading scorer will find it hard to score much like other post players againest Uconn.

 

[semper]

I'm looking to KLM and Stewie to be the difference in this game; and to Kelly to cure her only woe...the TO. I think Stef and Williams will be a draw, and am very worried about BriH; but hope she can do some good defensive work. So close, but I think we win.

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

Preview from RobC and DWHoops:

http://www.dwhoops.com/Duke/1301181-preview-duke-at-uconn-connecticut.php

 

[triaddukefan]

I'd love your take on my take.

Excellent analysis on your part, though I will disagree on one, possibly two points. I would give the bench advantage to Duke. You guys would rely on 3 freshman, and a sophomore who didnt gain much meaningful experience last season. Duke counters with 1 senior, and 2 juniors (all with starting experience) as well as a sophomore. A good blend of scoring and defensive punch off the bench. AV.... a senior with starting experience.... 6'5.. long and athletic... not a reliable scorer or great rebounder... but a excellent and versatile defender. Good shot-blocker who isnt afraid to mix it up with anyone... yet versatile enough to guard away from the basket. Wells is a Junior.. who was starting and averaging double figures as a soph before missing the second part of the season with a suspension. She is rounding back into shape,
and provides good on ball defense.. and can produce points off the bench as well. You left off Richa Jackson... another junior... who was a starter last year and was averaging double figures before tearing her ACL in mid-feb. She too is rounding back into shape...... and can provide scoring and defense.. in a athletic and strong 6'0 frame. Lastly there is K. Johnson... a sophomore who didnt contribute much last season.... but has made major strides..... not much of an offensive threat.... but is a strong perimeter defender.... and will make the hustle plays. Advantage Duke: proven experience over the talent and upside of the UCONN bench.

 

[Jonathan Husky]

I know I'm in the minority but I see this as a game Duke wins. UCONN seems like they are a tad out of sorts and between the lingering injuries, and kids trying to come back from being injured/sick, I see Duke winning a close one 63-61. I'm sure there will be a "guess the score" thread, but UCONN struggled against ND, which is a guard driven team. Given that Hartley is maybe semi-injured again, and Doty, while solid, is no match for Gray, I think Duke's guards control the game and eek out a win. Let's hope I'm proven wrong!!

My guess the UConn guards for most of the game will be Doty/Hartley and Farris
playing with KML, Stewart and Dolson. Farris not Doty/Hartley will probably play Gray reducing her effectiveness.

 

[chrissaran]

UConn is not the dominating team it was, which is why teams have been able to hang around a lot longer than before. There is no D or Maya to take over a game, or Tina to get 20 & 20. UConn has to cut down the turnovers, play tougher on the threes and slow down on offense. The extra pass will give them a better shot. How many times has Kaleena set up for three only to fake, dribble in and hit a two. There needs to be more of that. Also, I'm not sure what's going on with Brianna, but she looks frustrated. She will make mistakes still, but if she keeps getting pulled after just a few minutes, she will not be in a position to help us in the tournament. She needs to get back on track. Please, Moriah. Stop shooting threes. Penetrate and go to the basket, penetrate and pull up for a two, penetrate and dish to someone cutting to the basket or someone setting up for a three, but stop taking threes. You are not hitting any of them.

 

[OneTrickPony]

My guess the UConn guards for most of the game will be Doty/Hartley and Farris
playing with KML, Stewart and Dolson. Farris not Doty/Hartley will probably play Gray reducing her effectiveness.

I'd be surprised if Faris didn't match up with Chelsea as soon as Doty goes out...I might've been worried about KML's defense last year...this year it's Duke's turn to worry. I don't see the kind of player on the Duke roster to stop Breanna...she should have an excellent game.

 

[VAUConnFan]

Those who follow UConn religiously might understand why DD gives the SF advantage to Faris over Liston. A quick glance at the stats, though, would make a more casual fan scratch his head. Same with the center matchup. 25 points against Syracuse means little against the second best player in her high school class who is playing well so far this year.

This is as good a chance as Duke is going to have against UConn since 2006; Especially with UConn still looking for their stride. However, Duke is too offensively challenged to beat UConn; As long as the game is not close, UConn will win handily. A close game favors Duke, especially with Hartley ailing.

 

[CL82]

UConn is not the dominating team it was, which is why teams have been able to hang around a lot longer than before. There is no D or Maya to take over a game, or Tina to get 20 & 20. UConn has to cut down the turnovers, play tougher on the threes and slow down on offense. The extra pass will give them a better shot. How many times has Kaleena set up for three only to fake, dribble in and hit a two. There needs to be more of that. Also, I'm not sure what's going on with Brianna, but she looks frustrated. She will make mistakes still, but if she keeps getting pulled after just a few minutes, she will not be in a position to help us in the tournament. She needs to get back on track. Please, Moriah. Stop shooting threes. Penetrate and go to the basket, penetrate and pull up for a two, penetrate and dish to someone cutting to the basket or someone setting up for a three, but stop taking threes. You are not hitting any of them.

UConn's lack of a "dominating player" is by design. It is a lot harder to cut the head off of a hydra. KML, Stewie, Dolson (or a health Hartley) would all have a ton more points on a squad that was built around them. Maya and D were the center of attention in their final years by necessity. Geno prefers, and has done a lot damage, with the more broadbase approach.

 

[Bestiarius]

Something clicked in Stuart during the SU game that boosted her confidence. I'm hoping that gets carried over into the Duke game. If it does, it will be a big advantage. Duke's lack of experience against tough teams could also be a major factor. I'm betting defense will neutralize Gray, Dolson will come up big against Williams, and KML will continue her rampage of 3's. All this said, I'm still worried.

 

[doggydaddy]

Those who follow UConn religiously might understand why DD gives the SF advantage to Faris over Liston. A quick glance at the stats, though, would make a more casual fan scratch his head. Same with the center matchup. 25 points against Syracuse means little against the second best player in her high school class who is playing well so far this year.

I have no problem with someone disagreeing with me on my matchups. I would appreciate if you would list the stats that would make someone scratch their heads. Liston scores a little more, rebounds a little more but other than that Kelly shoots better on FG's, has many more assists, many less TO's, more steals more blocks and is a much better defender.

With the center matchup, Dolson was going against a pre-season All-BE center for SU, not some shlump. How much better is Williams? Some. But saying Dolsons performance against SU means little in the Duke matchup is not something I would agree with.

Sorry, but the current BE player of the week gets the nod from me.

 

[VAMike23]

Not sure I would really put all that much into the home-court adavantage for this year's Huskies. They seem to play with more focus, edge and discipline on the road in the fearsome national flag blue unis.

The energy and mojo at home does not always seem that intense, IMO. Sometimes yes, sometimes no.

(Incidentally, I think this augers well for the NCAA tournament.)

 

[boontonbomber]

if she can stay healthy, i look for morgan tuck to become a real factor as the season goes on. maybe starting tonight. i think she already moves better around the basket than the other bigs, but seems to have the frosh tendency to hurry her shots.

 

[Icebear]

My guess the UConn guards for most of the game will be Doty/Hartley and Farris
playing with KML, Stewart and Dolson. Farris not Doty/Hartley will probably play Gray reducing her effectiveness.

Obliterating her effectiveness.