UConn / Baylor Analysis

[doggydaddy]

Leaving for Florida tomorrow so I wanted to get this done asap. After the RU game, I should stay out of the prediction game, but what the heck.

UConn vs Baylor Monday, 7:00 16,000 plus in attendance. ESPN2

Uconn – 24-1 overall, 11-1 conference, 12 game winning streak. Only loss to ND 73-72.
Baylor – 24-1 overall, 14-0 conference, 22 game winning streak. Only loss to Stanford 71-69.

Realtime RPI – Baylor 1, Uconn 2
Realtime SOS – Baylor 1, Uconn 2
Sagarin Rating – Uconn 1, Baylor 2
Sagarin SOS - Baylor 1, Uconn 2

Overview – This is going to be a great game. Two incredible, evenly matched teams. Superstars on both teams. Both teams have only lost to one top team. Certainly Sims missing most of the Stanford game made a big difference. And because of this, Griner, 40-0 last year, 64 our of 65 games won, Baylor has to be considered the favorite. But the home court might make it an even game. I will probably repeat myself, but it will come down to who can do what they do better than the other team. Can Griner dominate against the new and improved Dolson? Can Dolson hit the perimeter shot? Can Baylor get out on the 3 point shooters? Lots of questions that only the game can answer.

I've matched up who I think Uconn will use to defend Baylor. Baylor certainly might not use the same match ups for their defense.

PG – Doty 5’10” SR (4.0 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.6 apg) vs Hayden 6” SR (7.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 4.5 apg)

A close matchup. Two smart players. Can Doty move well enough to stay with Hayden? And can she keep Hayden honest by hitting some outside shots? Both streaky shooters, Hayden and Doty are also clever passers.

Advantage Baylor

SG – Hartley 5’9” JR (9.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.3 apg) vs Madden 6' SR (8.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.0 apg)

Madden is another smart player and while she doesn't take the 3 pointer often, she is very successful when she does (39%). And they all seem to be clutch shots as well. If Hartley is healthy (hopefully a quick bug) and playing like she did the previous 3 games, she gets the nod. That is what I expect. Her shot is back, she is moving as quickly as ever and she is a handful when driving to the basket. If Dolson can bring out Griner, look for Hartley drives to the hoop.

AdvantageUconn

SF – Faris 5'11” SR (10.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 4.1 apg) vs Sims 5'8” JR (12.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 5.7 apg)

This matchup might determine the game. If Faris can slow Sims down and make her work for everything, she could wear down but not likely. I fully expect Sims to play 40 minutes. Sims is coming off a lousy game from her standards. I don't expect that to matter. Sims is a warrior and will find a way to push her will on the game. Faris is the glue, as has been said many times. And I think she is always looking and embracing a challenge. This will be no different. You want to see physical? Watch this match up. Just nope the refs let them play.

Advantage Baylor

PF – KML SO 6’ (16.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.3 apg) vs Pope 6'2” SR (11.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.0 apg)

Pope has come on this year, earning a starting berth over Williams. She is strong around the basket and has really done a great job finishing off missed shots. She will find her match around the basket in KML. She has really improved her rebounding including put backs off missed shots. Leading the country on 3's is no accident and if Pope is guarding her, I expect a big game for KML. Uconn will need her to play like the AA she will be.

Advantage UConn

C – Dolson 6’5” (14.2 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.2 apg) vs Griner 6'8” SR (22.0 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 2.1 apg)

Ok...I'll say it. The two best centers in the country. And Dolson has closed the gap. But there is only one Griner and if she plays her top game, Uconn will have to play their A game to win. Dolson needs to use her posterior to get defensive position and keep Griner away from the basket. That won't stop the turn and shoot from 8-10 feet but if Griner is hitting those, there is nothing you can do. Dolson will be setting up at the high post, and it should be interesting to see if Griner goes out to defend and if Dolson can hit from 15-18 feet. Don't be surprised of Dolson takes a couple of 3's. Both Dolson and Griner are in terrific shape, so expect them both to get up and down the court quickly. Another match up I hope the refs let play out.

Advantage Baylor

Bench – Uconn - Stewart 6’4" FR ( 13.2 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.0 apg), Tuck FR 6’2” (6.4 ppg, 3.1 rpg,
1.2 apg), Jefferson FR 5'7" (4.4 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.8 apg), Stokes SO 6'3" (2.7 ppg, 4.1 rpg, .7 apg) vs Williams 6'2” SR (8.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg, .8 apg), Prince 6'1” FR (6.0 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.0 apg), Johnson 5'8” FR (1.8 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 2.9 apg), Robertson 5'9” JR (2.7 ppg, .8 rpg, .9 apg).

Total stats off the bench – Uconn – 26.7 ppg, 15.9 rpg, 4.7 apg vs Baylor - 18.5 ppg, 12.4 rpg, 5.5 apg)

UConn will likely play all 4 players on the bench and maybe even Buck. Jefferson looks to have turned the corner, but she might struggle on defense with the bigger Bears. Tuck will contribute as she is similar in game to Williams and Pope. And will Stewart play up to her game instead of down? Who knows? I think Johnson or Robertson will see very little time in this game if any. Williams is a big contributor and her rebounding will be be important for Baylor. Not sure Prince is ready for the big stage, but she has the skills to hit a few 3's if left open.

Advantage UConn

Geno Auriemma vs Kim Mulkey

Mulky is so much fun to watch. She is a great motivator. I'm still not sold on her game time adjustments, but when you have the team she does, when does she need to make one??

Geno is still the best in my mind. He has been doing everything in his power to get this team to be more consistant. I am looking forward to see if he has anything different in mind when defending Griner and Sims.

Advantage UConn

Intangibles – 16K+ that will probably be one of the loudest crowds ever. Gotta figure 3-4 points for home court. Defending champs always have a swagger.

Advantage Uconn

Team Stats Uconn listed first​

​

Points PG 83.0 81.7​

Rebounds PG 42.6 44.6​

Assists PG 20.9 21.6​

TO/G 13.6 13.4​

Opponents PPG 46.8 52.7 ​

FG % 49.8 50.8 ​

Opponents FG% 30.7 32.0 ​

3pt % 37.9 35.4​

Steals PG11 10​

Block PG5.6 6.8​

Final analysis – As you can see above, the team stats are amazingly close. But how they get there are very different. And it will be who can execute what they do on offense and defense better than the other team.

Uconn will look to expand the perimeter on offense and bring out the Baylor defense, hoping to exploit pick and rolls and quick cuts to the hoop. Problem is Griner negates a lot of that just because she is so long and athletic. On defense, Uconn will look to pressure Baylor to help thwart entry passes to Griner. Problem with that is Sims is very capable of dribbling by that pressure for tough drives to the hoop for a layup or dish offs to Griner and kickouts to Hayden or Madden for jumpers.

Baylor will look to Griner and after that, more Griner. Dolsen's ability to make it difficult for Griner to get the ball without fouling will be key. Sims is the key for Griner to dominate and Uconn has the lock in Faris. I know that in the past Sims has had great success against Uconn but I'm sure Faris is up to the challenge. On defense, Baylor will try to impact Uconn's outside game, leaving Griner to patrol the lane. In the past, Dolson has not been up to the task against Griner. If she can hit a few outside shots, it can change the way Baylor defends Uconn and takes them away from their strength.

I'm hoping that this game is played on a very high level and WCBB comes of as an exciting product to watch. Two great teams that, if playing their best, can put on quite the show

Final prediction – It's Uconn's turn. In a close one. Somewhere in the 70's. Like the temperature in Florida when I land with 15 minutes left in the game.

 

[UConnCat]

Nicely done, DD.

But for a couple of exceptions (immediate post-Taurasi years), UConn has always played well in big games. I expect this team to play well tomorrow night (Saturday's game notwithstanding). Earlier this season I thought UConn was the only team with a chance to beat Baylor at full-strength and I thought Stewart would be the difference. Needless to say, I've had to adjust my thinking. I can't add to what Geno said: the game will be decided by how great Sims plays (or how uncomfortable UConn makes her feel) and how well UConn shoots 3s. I'd add that Dolson must stay out of foul trouble.

Whatever the outcome, UConn must come out of this game believing it can beat Baylor even if it loses. That means playing well and giving themselves an opportunity to win down the stretch. Hopefully the teams will meet again in New Orleans, preferably on Tuesday night.

Edit: here's a link to a video of Rebecca Lobo talking about what UConn might try to do against Sims.

http://espn.go.com/espnw/8951519

 

[Wbbfan1]

Great Video and Analysis by Rebecca. Now understand how UConn was able to shut down Duke while other teams haven't been able to. The question is will Kelly be able to handle Sims the same way. Got to keep the ball out of her hands.

DD Very objective analysis of the game with the match ups and well written. Enjoy Florida.

Nicely done, DD.

But for a couple of exceptions (immediate post-Taurasi years), UConn has always played well in big games. I expect this team to play well tomorrow night (Saturday's game notwithstanding). Earlier this season I thought UConn was the only team with a chance to beat Baylor at full-strength and I thought Stewart would be the difference. Needless to say, I've had to adjust my thinking. I can't add to what Geno said: the game will be decided by how great Sims plays (or how uncomfortable UConn makes her feel) and how well UConn shoots 3s. I'd add that Dolson must stay out of foul trouble.

Whatever the outcome, UConn must come out of this game believing it can beat Baylor even if it loses. That means playing well and giving themselves an opportunity to win down the stretch. Hopefully the teams will meet again in New Orleans, preferably on Tuesday night.

Edit: here's a link to a video of Rebecca Lobo talking about what UConn might try to do against Sims.

http://espn.go.com/espnw/8951519

 

[VAMike23]

Nice job DD - here are some of my thoughts:

Offense

It will be interesting to see what Baylor's scheme is for defending the perimeter. We always want to have a balanced attack, of course, but we'll have to be effective from outside in this game more than others. Going inside against Baylor is never easy and won't work unless we are also presenting a threat from 3-land.

The difference with Baylor is that with such an imposing backstop and lane presence in Griner, their perimeter players can afford to both: A) apply greater pressure and B) 'stay home' on players like KML, rather than collapsing to the ball if it goes to the middle.

If this is what Baylor does, then working it inside-outside will be difficult, and that's the way our guys like to shoot the 3-ball. More time to spot up, square up, etc. Instead they may have to respond by taking the initiative and aggressively getting to gaps in the Baylor zone and taking shots with confidence off the bounce. As a team, this isn't typically our strongest suit, but KML is very capable here, and she's shown it against Baylor. Bria, too, when she's on her game. If they play man, then better use of ball screens will be required, something we don't always seem to do as well as other teams, like ND.

Others have talked about drawing Griner out by having Stef out high, even past the arc - I don't see Mulkey taking the bait on that one, at least not to the point where we hurt them. Griner always likes coming out as a shot blocker and I'm sure she will do so on Monday, but I am doubtful that we will have any consistent success bringing her out real high and then working our cutters behind her. Maybe because Stewie is so good at collecting entry passes (she can snag most anything), Stef will be able to throw or lob it down to her if BG comes out too far. I will be pleasantly surprised if this works with regularity.

Defense

Since Stewie's arrival, I have always thought the the best way to defend Baylor would be to have Stef (or Kiah or even Heather) behind Griner and have Stewie in position to help as much as possible from the high side or at least hedging, bothering the entry pass and harassing BG if she gets the ball. No idea how it will actually play out or what GA will try and do. But I do think that in order to win, we will need a lot of minutes from Stewie. 25+. I know everyone says Sims is the key, but if we don't have consistent help for Stef against BG, I'm afraid she will pick up too many early fouls, and we have seen what our offense looks like when Stef is on the bench. She is just too valuable.

If Stewie or other players do help on BG consistently, this makes life hard for our perimeter defenders, and Sims will be a handful. Hopefully Geno will have Kelly shadowing Sims as much as possible, and the rest of the defense will just have to rotate well (Geno hasn't been too pleased with this lately) and play their hearts out, as we know they can do. I could be wrong and Geno might try to keep from helping on Griner too much, for fear of Sims running wild. He has often spoken of his respect for Sims. Can we play them straight up and bother Sims (and others) enough to consistently prevent the entry to BG? We shall see. I am still more wary of Griner and what would happen if Stef goes to the bench.

Mulkey's wardrobe:

THIS is really the key question!! What will Kim pull from the closet on Monday? Does she even know yet?!?

 

[MilfordHusky]

I too think Sims is a big key. We need to limit her steals and easy baskets, her corner threes, and drives into the lane. She is especially dangerous as the shot clock winds down.

The center matchup is another big key. Stef needs to stay out of foul trouble. Her offensive game can occupy Griner. And defensively she can slow BG down.

We need at least 3 players to bring their A games. Ideally, these will be Stef, KML, and Kelly. If Sims gets neutralized by Kelly as other very good players were, we win. If Kaleena has the touch, I like our chances. And if Stef can play 30 minutes and score 15+, I think we win.

I still like the idea of attacking Griner and hitting a cutter from the weak side. That could be Stef, Kaleena, Kelly, or Stewie. I think Moriah can get into the paint before Griner can get there and/or shoot tear drops over her. MoJeff can be a difference maker tomorrow. I hope she is.

 

[VAUConnFan]

Doggydaddy, you do a great job. Don't be afraid to be proven incorrect. If form held all the time we'd all find a way to get rich. In the big games such as tomorrow's contest, all it takes is for someone to get unexpectedly hot, or a major star to be uncharacteristically cold to throw one's well formed analysis out the window.

I have been looking forward to seeing how you would find a way for UConn to win. Although I do not see it, I hope you are right.

In the Brittney Griner era, UConn and Baylor have squared off three times. In all three contests, UConn has underformed offensively; Lower than average point totasl and field goal percentages.
In 2010, Maya Moore and Tina Charles accounted for 55 of UConn's 70 points.
In the 2011 season, UConn somehow managed to take 26 more shots than Baylor with Maya Moore accounting for 30 of UConn's 65 points.
Last season UConn scored 61 points with Bria Hartley scoring 25 and Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis tallying 15. KML, however, was shut out the last 13 minutes.

Does anyone reasonably expect Hartley to turn in an offensive performance similar to last season?
Is it possible for UConn to, at least, score close to their average and shoot somewhere close to their field goal percentage?
From where will the scoring come? How much inside scoring will UConn muster? How much will be needed?
Is Moriah Jefferson ready for the big time?
Adding to all these doubts is the fact that Baylor is the defending national champion returning all of their main players. They are solid defensively as a team and individually with Griner, Sims, and Madden.

Basketball, being a game of matchups, Baylor presents a tough matchup for UConn. It has been a long time since UConn has gone into a game with a matchup this tough. I fully expect Jordan Madden to match up against KML.

 

[msf22b]

Two points:

-It really depends which UConn team shows up, the Rutgers version or the Providence version. We all know how the starters started yesterday; the same 5 were world-beaters a few days before. Within three minutes, KML. Caroline and Hartley were 3 for 3 on treys, Dolson had sunk 2 foul shots and Hartley found Kelly on a cut to the basket. If we start the game like that, then Baylor (or anyone else) is in a whole lot of trouble.

-A tangable asset for Baylor is their upper-class leadership. This team is virtually identical to that which won the National Championship last year and Pope is finally showing her potential. They're unlikely to panic, have tons of weapons and include the most experienced and feared point guard in the country. I know that we have Kelly and Caroline but yesterday shows that when slightly off, even they can look quite ordinary. I think this is a big advantage for Baylor.

My brain says Baylor but my heart says UConn.

The question is: which team comes in more ready to perform at a high level.

 

[UConnCat]

In the Brittney Griner era, UConn and Baylor have squared off three times. In all three contests, UConn has underformed offensively; Lower than average point totasl and field goal percentages.
In 2010, Maya Moore and Tina Charles accounted for 55 of UConn's 70 points.
In the 2011 season, UConn somehow managed to take 26 more shots than Baylor with Maya Moore accounting for 30 of UConn's 65 points.
Last season UConn scored 61 points with Bria Hartley scoring 25 and Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis tallying 15. KML, however, was shut out the last 13 minutes.

Does anyone reasonably expect Hartley to turn in an offensive performance similar to last season?
Is it possible for UConn to, at least, score close to their average and shoot somewhere close to their field goal percentage?
From where will the scoring come? How much inside scoring will UConn muster? How much will be needed?
Is Moriah Jefferson ready for the big time?
Adding to all these doubts is the fact that Baylor is the defending national champion returning all of their main players. They are solid defensively as a team and individually with Griner, Sims, and Madden.

In last year's Baylor-UConn game, Sims (23) and Griner (25) combined for 48 of Baylor's 66 points. No other Baylor player scored in double figures. That's what should happen in big games with All-Americans: the AAs rise to the occasion and carry their team. I don't expect Hartley to play like she did last year but she shouldn't need to. If she is feeling better, I expect her to continue her improved play. I expect Dolson and KML to be more productive offensively and I expect Faris to be more productive than the 1-9 she shot last year.

 

[doggydaddy]

I fully expect Jordan Madden to match up against KML.

Then who does Pope/Williams cover?

Faris? She would run Pope until Pope dropped from exhaustion.

Doty? Too quick for Pope. Even with the bum knee.

Hartley? Please....lol.

Maybe when Stewart/Stokes/Tuck are in with Dolson and UConn has two bigs on the floor she will cover one of the bigs.

 

[Tonyc]

UConn 68 Baylor 53 Keys for UConn. Stef and Kelly stay out of foul trouble. Stef KML and Bria need to score. Kelly will step it up big time and be the difference. After Genos comments during the RU game about not committing fouls I think thats part of the game plan for Monday nite. Dont foul. Dont forget we were up 11 last season and hadnt been to the line until Baylor got the lead late. That wont happen this season. I really dont see one of our three scorer Stef Bria and KML not scoring over 20 pts and all 3 should score over 15.

Baylor is not a good 3 pt shooting team. They will have to stay out of foul trouble too. Simms will have to shine and with Stewart Stokes and STef in the middle Griner will have to add a little arc to her shot. Im looking for Griner to get her shot blocked by Breanna. If Baylor spends to much time following KML that will leave somebody else open

Im hoping the refs let them play and not make alot of touchy fouls. If UConn as a team is hitting their outside shots they will win. They have way to much fire power.

 

[doggydaddy]

Two points:

-It really depends which UConn team shows up, the Rutgers version or the Providence version. We all know how the starters started yesterday; the same 5 were world-beaters a few days before. Within three minutes, KML. Caroline and Hartley were 3 for 3 on treys, Dolson had sunk 2 foul shots and Hartley found Kelly on a cut to the basket. If we start the game like that, then Baylor (or anyone else) is in a whole lot of trouble.

-A tangable asset for Baylor is their upper-class leadership. This team is virtually identical to that which won the National Championship last year and Pope is finally showing her potential. They're unlikely to panic, have tons of weapons and include the most experienced and feared point guard in the country. I know that we have Kelly and Caroline but yesterday shows that when slightly off, even they can look quite ordinary. I think this is a big advantage for Baylor.

My brain says Baylor but my heart says UConn.

The question is: which team comes in more ready to perform at a high level.

You can say the same thing with any team. Will the "good" team show up or the "bad" team. Yes, Uconn got off to a rocky start, but I'm with Icebear on this one. They were down 10 and won by twenty. That is a 30 point turnaround without Hartley, who had been averaging 16+ points the last 3 games.

Yesterday, Sim, the superwoman of all superwomen, scored 2 points against TCU in 24 minutes. 1-5 from the field and 0-4 on 3's.

Looks to me she was off and looked ordinary. It happens.

Do I expect her to perform like that against UConn. No. No way. Great players usually rise to the occasion.

 

[chrissaran]

Leaving for Florida tomorrow so I wanted to get this done asap. After the RU game, I should stay out of the prediction game, but what the heck.

Sorry, but the game is not at 7:00 p.m., it's at 9:00 p.m.

UConn vs Baylor Monday, 7:00 16,000 plus in attendance. ESPN2

Uconn – 24-1 overall, 11-1 conference, 12 game winning streak. Only loss to ND 73-72.
Baylor – 24-1 overall, 14-0 conference, 22 game winning streak. Only loss to Stanford 71-69.

Realtime RPI – Baylor 1, Uconn 2
Realtime SOS – Baylor 1, Uconn 2
Sagarin Rating – Uconn 1, Baylor 2
Sagarin SOS - Baylor 1, Uconn 2

Overview – This is going to be a great game. Two incredible, evenly matched teams. Superstars on both teams. Both teams have only lost to one top team. Certainly Sims missing most of the Stanford game made a big difference. And because of this, Griner, 40-0 last year, 64 our of 65 games won, Baylor has to be considered the favorite. But the home court might make it an even game. I will probably repeat myself, but it will come down to who can do what they do better than the other team. Can Griner dominate against the new and improved Dolson? Can Dolson hit the perimeter shot? Can Baylor get out on the 3 point shooters? Lots of questions that only the game can answer.

I've matched up who I think Uconn will use to defend Baylor. Baylor certainly might not use the same match ups for their defense.

PG – Doty 5’10” SR (4.0 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.6 apg) vs Hayden 6” SR (7.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 4.5 apg)

A close matchup. Two smart players. Can Doty move well enough to stay with Hayden? And can she keep Hayden honest by hitting some outside shots? Both streaky shooters, Hayden and Doty are also clever passers.

Advantage Baylor

SG – Hartley 5’9” JR (9.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.3 apg) vs Madden 6' SR (8.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.0 apg)

Madden is another smart player and while she doesn't take the 3 pointer often, she is very successful when she does (39%). And they all seem to be clutch shots as well. If Hartley is healthy (hopefully a quick bug) and playing like she did the previous 3 games, she gets the nod. That is what I expect. Her shot is back, she is moving as quickly as ever and she is a handful when driving to the basket. If Dolson can bring out Griner, look for Hartley drives to the hoop.

AdvantageUconn

SF – Faris 5'11” SR (10.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 4.1 apg) vs Sims 5'8” JR (12.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 5.7 apg)

This matchup might determine the game. If Faris can slow Sims down and make her work for everything, she could wear down but not likely. I fully expect Sims to play 40 minutes. Sims is coming off a lousy game from her standards. I don't expect that to matter. Sims is a warrior and will find a way to push her will on the game. Faris is the glue, as has been said many times. And I think she is always looking and embracing a challenge. This will be no different. You want to see physical? Watch this match up. Just nope the refs let them play.

Advantage Baylor

PF – KML SO 6’ (16.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.3 apg) vs Pope 6'2” SR (11.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.0 apg)

Pope has come on this year, earning a starting berth over Williams. She is strong around the basket and has really done a great job finishing off missed shots. She will find her match around the basket in KML. She has really improved her rebounding including put backs off missed shots. Leading the country on 3's is no accident and if Pope is guarding her, I expect a big game for KML. Uconn will need her to play like the AA she will be.

Advantage UConn

C – Dolson 6’5” (14.2 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.2 apg) vs Griner 6'8” SR (22.0 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 2.1 apg)

Ok...I'll say it. The two best centers in the country. And Dolson has closed the gap. But there is only one Griner and if she plays her top game, Uconn will have to play their A game to win. Dolson needs to use her posterior to get defensive position and keep Griner away from the basket. That won't stop the turn and shoot from 8-10 feet but if Griner is hitting those, there is nothing you can do. Dolson will be setting up at the high post, and it should be interesting to see if Griner goes out to defend and if Dolson can hit from 15-18 feet. Don't be surprised of Dolson takes a couple of 3's. Both Dolson and Griner are in terrific shape, so expect them both to get up and down the court quickly. Another match up I hope the refs let play out.

Advantage Baylor

Bench – Uconn - Stewart 6’4" FR ( 13.2 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.0 apg), Tuck FR 6’2” (6.4 ppg, 3.1 rpg,
1.2 apg), Jefferson FR 5'7" (4.4 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.8 apg), Stokes SO 6'3" (2.7 ppg, 4.1 rpg, .7 apg) vs Williams 6'2” SR (8.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg, .8 apg), Prince 6'1” FR (6.0 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.0 apg), Johnson 5'8” FR (1.8 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 2.9 apg), Robertson 5'9” JR (2.7 ppg, .8 rpg, .9 apg).

Total stats off the bench – Uconn – 26.7 ppg, 15.9 rpg, 4.7 apg vs Baylor - 18.5 ppg, 12.4 rpg, 5.5 apg)

UConn will likely play all 4 players on the bench and maybe even Buck. Jefferson looks to have turned the corner, but she might struggle on defense with the bigger Bears. Tuck will contribute as she is similar in game to Williams and Pope. And will Stewart play up to her game instead of down? Who knows? I think Johnson or Robertson will see very little time in this game if any. Williams is a big contributor and her rebounding will be be important for Baylor. Not sure Prince is ready for the big stage, but she has the skills to hit a few 3's if left open.

Advantage UConn

Geno Auriemma vs Kim Mulkey

Mulky is so much fun to watch. She is a great motivator. I'm still not sold on her game time adjustments, but when you have the team she does, when does she need to make one??

Geno is still the best in my mind. He has been doing everything in his power to get this team to be more consistant. I am looking forward to see if he has anything different in mind when defending Griner and Sims.

Advantage UConn

Intangibles – 16K+ that will probably be one of the loudest crowds ever. Gotta figure 3-4 points for home court. Defending champs always have a swagger.

Advantage Uconn

Team Stats Uconn listed first​

​

Points PG 83.0 81.7​

Rebounds PG 42.6 44.6​

Assists PG 20.9 21.6​

TO/G 13.6 13.4​

Opponents PPG 46.8 52.7 ​

FG % 49.8 50.8 ​

Opponents FG% 30.7 32.0 ​

3pt % 37.9 35.4​

Steals PG11 10​

Block PG5.6 6.8​

Final analysis – As you can see above, the team stats are amazingly close. But how they get there are very different. And it will be who can execute what they do on offense and defense better than the other team.

Uconn will look to expand the perimeter on offense and bring out the Baylor defense, hoping to exploit pick and rolls and quick cuts to the hoop. Problem is Griner negates a lot of that just because she is so long and athletic. On defense, Uconn will look to pressure Baylor to help thwart entry passes to Griner. Problem with that is Sims is very capable of dribbling by that pressure for tough drives to the hoop for a layup or dish offs to Griner and kickouts to Hayden or Madden for jumpers.

Baylor will look to Griner and after that, more Griner. Dolsen's ability to make it difficult for Griner to get the ball without fouling will be key. Sims is the key for Griner to dominate and Uconn has the lock in Faris. I know that in the past Sims has had great success against Uconn but I'm sure Faris is up to the challenge. On defense, Baylor will try to impact Uconn's outside game, leaving Griner to patrol the lane. In the past, Dolson has not been up to the task against Griner. If she can hit a few outside shots, it can change the way Baylor defends Uconn and takes them away from their strength.

I'm hoping that this game is played on a very high level and WCBB comes of as an exciting product to watch. Two great teams that, if playing their best, can put on quite the show

Final prediction – It's Uconn's turn. In a close one. Somewhere in the 70's. Like the temperature in Florida when I land with 15 minutes left in the game.

 

[Tonyc]

One thing UCOnn can do better then any team in WCBB. Thats put up alot of points in a very short time. KML is a machine gun when she gets it going add Bria and Stef to that and UConns pressure defense and thats how they go on their runs.

 

[Kibitzer]

Watch what Geno does after 5 minutes of play. Most likely he will bring Breanna in (to do that hi-lo with Stef) or Moriah (to annoy Sims). His surprise move would be to bring Morgan in (the hi-lo again), cuz she is a banger on both boards and can help Stef negate or limit Griner.

Biggest concern? Stef two quick fouls. Biggest hope? Breanna and/or Morgan help Stef in her matchup with Griner. At both ends of the court.

(Actually my biggest hope is that Kaleena gets hot, stays hot.)

I like our chances. UConn by ten.

 

[reno tony]

Excellent review. I like all the match ups but think Faris/MoJeff might be the keys on defense. They will need to slow down Sims. That is assuming Kelly doesn't play all 40. I also think KML must get a little hot to spread the floor. Don't see too much inside scoring with Griner in the paint so this might be a live or die by the three game for UCONN. Sure would be a perfect time for Breanna to have a nice game. I have told everyone that will listen that this will be the game of the year... watch it. Last time I did that was the UCONN/Stanford N.C. game. Hope we don't have a horrible game like that one.​

Kelly Faris is Superwoman in disguise.​

 

[UConnCat]

Then who does Pope/Williams cover?

Faris? She would run Pope until Pope dropped from exhaustion.

Doty? Too quick for Pope. Even with the bum knee.

Hartley? Please....lol.

Maybe when Stewart/Stokes/Tuck are in with Dolson and UConn has two bigs on the floor she will cover one of the bigs.

There's no doubt in my mind that Madden will be on KML. Madden is always given the assignment of the opponent's best perimeter player and KML is UConn's best perimeter shooter. I think Mulkey will take her chances with Pope on Faris thinking that Griner will guard the lane and Pope will probably make Faris prove she can hit the perimeter shot in a big game. That's why Faris' improved shooting is so important. If Pope gets tired, Williams can come in and give her a rest.

 

[doggydaddy]

There's no doubt in my mind that Madden will be on KML. Madden is always given the assignment of the opponent's best perimeter player and KML is UConn's best perimeter shooter. I think Mulkey will take her chances with Pope on Faris thinking that Griner will guard the lane and Pope will probably make Faris prove she can hit the perimeter shot in a big game. That's why Faris' improved shooting is so important. If Pope gets tired, Williams can come in and give her a rest.

Looking forward to watching Faris have Pope and Williams chase her around the perimeter.

 

[Replicant]

Your finest work yet Doggy and worthy of "The Game of The Year"!

I'm liking us by 8-10.

 

[svetbird]

After this loss I am a bit disheartened. What do you guys think we can do differently if we get the chance to play them again. I just don’t see that much we did poorly in this game. Kml cannot be any better. Dolson is a force Faris was invisible in the first half, but turned in on in the 2nd. The only player I did not like tonight was Stewart. I just don’t see anyone making that big of a difference to turn a game against Baylor into a win.
PS god I hate Britney Griner. If ESPN said her name one more time I think I would have pulled my hair out.

 

[VAUConnFan]

Despite Baylor 50 points in the second half, one looks at the fact that UConn shot better and that Sims went 3-15 and have to ask the same question svetbird is asking. UConn played well. They can get better. How can they beat Baylor? My feeling is that their ony hope is in the improvement and tournament readiness of Moriah Jefferson.

 

[VAUConnFan]

His surprise move would be to bring Morgan in (the hi-lo again), cuz she is a banger on both boards and can help Stef negate or limit Griner.


(Actually my biggest hope is that Kaleena gets hot, stays hot.)

.

Your wish was granted. Hope you have a couple more left and use them judiciously.

 

[VAUConnFan]

UConn will likely play all 4 players on the bench and maybe even Buck. Jefferson looks to have turned the corner, but she might struggle on defense with the bigger Bears. Tuck will contribute as she is similar in game to Williams and Pope. And will Stewart play up to her game instead of down? Who knows? Williams is a big contributor and her rebounding will be be important for Baylor.

I'm hoping that this game is played on a very high level and WCBB comes of as an exciting product to watch. Two great teams that, if playing their best, can put on quite the show

Final prediction – Somewhere in the 70's. Like the temperature in Florida when I land with 15 minutes left in the game.

Good job, and yes, this game was everything anyone could hope for; Played on a very high level with a ton of scoring in the second half.