UConn at ND analysis

[jsloanjr]

UCONN has always been a big game team and they will step up on Sat at SB.........UCONN by 10+

 

[tomcat]

Two or three weeks ago, with UConn's players progressing as they often do, I was pretty optimistic about the games against Notre Dame and, for that matter, the rest of the season. Now, not so much.

The way things stand right now, it seems that Muffet has a much easier time of coaching this game than Geno. Her team has proved they can do what they do, rather consistently at that. It sounds as though Geno knows what he wants his team to do, particularly at center, but it's certain that they are not delivering what he wants consistently at all. So it's not just a matter of player vs. player, its a matter of whether the UConn guards can get the ball to Stef inside and whether she will be effective against Peters. I see Peters getting into trouble while trying to stop passes to an active Stef. If Stef isn't active, that scenario changes.

The other thing that is different this year is that Ochonwa is a year older and better. If Peters gets into foul trouble, Ochonwa could be a factor. In any case, UConn ignores her at its peril.

Given the defensive ability of ND's guards, it would not be a good thing if UConn has to rely on its outside game for a win. If UConn cannot work its will on the inside, ND is likely to win a close game, and if, in addition, ND has a good day defensively, it might not even be close. I'll be feeling a lot better about things if Stef and the guards are on the same page, or at least in the same book.

 

[AboutWeston]

Tough to argue with any of that, though I think Geno's a much better coach overall than Muffett- just not necessarily ways that will be pertinent to this game with the teams they respectively have.

I've also predicted a 69-66 victory for ND, and I'm sticking with that. But I expect UConn to win in the home rematch and again in the BET if there is a third meeting there.

And indeed, it would not be shocking to see UConn pull this out. Like UConn, ND has played a number of meaningless games to this point, but they've faced enough decent competition to know they're vulnerable. Their four good opponents have been Baylor, Duke, Kentucky, and Purdue, and Purdue is extremely inconsistent. I wouldn't call the Duke or Kentcky wins especially impressive; they were a little lucky to beat Duke, and Middle Tennessee beat UK by a wider MOV. And of course they gave up a TON of points to Baylor. UConn may not win, and I'm predicting they won't Saturday, but ND is emminently beatable.

This will be a fun game and tough to predict for two reasons: a) you have similarly-sized teams (both use a four-gard lineup), but b) UConn's identity has been more defense-oriented while ND's strongest suit is its offense. The team that imposes its identity more in this game will win.

I am inclined to agree with the score but reverse the who wins - I think UCONN will rise to the challenge having learned about close games from Baylor loss on the road earlier in the season.

 

[vtcwbuff]

Not much to argue about here, whatever the matchups. I'm thinking ND by the HFA but much depends on Dolson.

 

[boontonbomber]

seems to me that nd's experience makes them the better defensive team at the moment. therefore, uconn better shoot really well.

 

[doggydaddy]

defense wins close games. seems to me that nd's experience makes them the better defensive team at the moment.

Against a tougher schedule, Uconn (statistically) is leading the country in defense.

 

[alexrgct]

ND- gave up 94 points to Baylor and 83 to Kentucky
UConn- gave up 66 to Baylor and 58 to Stanford

How can anyone possibly conclude ND is a better defensive team thus far???

 

[Tonyc]

Nice job Doggy. I will go with UConn and their defense 68-61

 

[boontonbomber]

ND- gave up 94 points to Baylor and 83 to Kentucky
UConn- gave up 66 to Baylor and 58 to Stanford

How can anyone possibly conclude ND is a better defensive team thus far???

hard to argue with that, though i think that big turn-over numbers and fast breaks led to a lot of those points, not their half-court defense. i guess i'm still having flashbacks to the job that nd did in the tournament last year, though aided by some questionable calls on dolson. nd's body-up defense in the half-court has caused uconn trouble at times in the past.

 

[pap49cba]

I think ND's offense is in better sync at the moment but our defense may be slightly better. Should be an interesting chess match. I still think we split the home & homes.

 

[Ruffian75]

Does anyone else think that both Muffett and Geno will keep some of their powder dry for this game? If I were Geno, I don't think I would be playing all my cards in this one. Lose the game, big deal, fall to #3 in the country vs. #2. Fall behind ND in the BE regular season race, bigger deal, but not worth going all out IMO.

This game is our most important one of the season to date.

 

[msf22b]

Sorry all to be late to the party, a messy day bashing from Utila to Roatan; thank goodness made it in one piece.

Daddy: I love your analysis but hate your first sentence, I was at two of the Notre Dame games last season and they were nail-biters, both could have gone either way, real dog fights. Yeah, we won but it wasn't easy. No domination.

Everything else is great!

 

[speedoo]

Sorry all to be late to the party, a messy day bashing from Utila to Roatan; thank goodness made it in one piece.

Daddy: I love your analysis but hate your first sentence, I was at two of the Notre Dame games last season and they were nail-biters, both could have gone either way, real dog fights. Yeah, we won but it wasn't easy. No domination.

Everything else is great!

I caught that comment about Utila and Roatan. We need to talk! Check your pm...

 

[doggydaddy]

Sorry all to be late to the party, a messy day bashing from Utila to Roatan; thank goodness made it in one piece.

Daddy: I love your analysis but hate your first sentence, I was at two of the Notre Dame games last season and they were nail-biters, both could have gone either way, real dog fights. Yeah, we won but it wasn't easy. No domination.

Everything else is great!

I did qualify my comment by saying "UConn dominated ND at times".

One game was domination and I was at that game. The BE tourney game had periods of UConn domination as well.

No big deal.

 

[ThisJustIn]

I'll be intrigued to what, if any, lessons both teams learned from WVa's strategy of packing the paint....

 

[UConnCat]

Great stuff DD and thank you for doing this.

I loved your point about fouls: ND draws a lot of fouls but UConn doesn't (typically) foul much; conversely, ND can foul a lot but UConn doesn't draw many fouls. The two ND players who get to the line the most are Novosel and Diggins. Both score about 25% of their points at the FT line. It will be really important to keep those two out of the lane and off the foul line, but that's a tough task. Faris defended Diggins in the FF loss and was very disappointed in her defense. I know she'd like to make up for that. I wonder whether Faris will spend more time defending Diggins or Novosel.

Mallory is ND's best on-ball defender. As you point out, she isn't the quickest player on the court but she is really smart and knows how to fight through screens better than most. I expect she'll spend some time guarding KML.

I can't really disagree with your bottom line, but UConn has always been a big game team...

I'm excited to watch this one.

 

[speedoo]

This game is our most important one of the season to date.

Not sure it's more important than the Baylor game, since both are on the road. As a home game for ND, it's more crucial for them than it is for UConn. Conversely the UConn home game will be more important for UConn. And a meeting in the FF would be by far more important, which is why I believe both coaches might hold some strategy option back.

 

[Dairyair]

Always enjoy your detailed analysis, DD...you obviously put a lot of thought and time into these posts. Can't find any nits to pick with your potential matchups, but I still think UConn wins.

 

[Ruffian75]

Not sure it's more important than the Baylor game, since both are on the road. As a home game for ND, it's more crucial for them than it is for UConn. Conversely the UConn home game will be more important for UConn. And a meeting in the FF would be by far more important, which is why I believe both coaches might hold some strategy option back.

Winning the conference and the BET is more important than beating Baylor OOC. A couple losses to ND (in South bend and in the BET) combined with Stanford, Tennessee, and/or Maryland running their conference schedules and we could kiss a #1 seed goodbye. Maintaining our higher position over ND is important when it comes to who we draw as a 2 seed. I would rather get Duke or Kentucky over those listed above.

 

[John Fryer]

nd's body-up defense in the half-court has caused uconn trouble at times in the past.

As I recall, we did pretty good, defensively, when we pressed ND all over the floor.

Things began to go into the toilet when we went to a zone.

Does anyone know if the team even practices zone defenses?

In our last game Bob and Meghan both commented that they were surprised by the 1-3-1 zone we were trying to play.

Lastly, I see this game as being an excellent opportunity for us to play both Stef and Heather at the same time.

Stef could guard peters wherever she sets up and Heather would be primarily responsible for protecting the middle.

No more down the middle uncontested buckets for Ms. Diggins.

Oh, and very importantly, our guards should not try to help out on the boards. Guard Your Man!

Kelly will take good care of the rebounds that our bigs are unable to get.

Peace,

John Fryer

 

[UConnCat]

Some things I learned from yesterday's game beyond the lack of maturity and poise shown by the UConn players that prevented them from closing out the game:

• Notre Dame is capable of playing better on-ball defense in the half-court than I expected based on previous games;
• ND's decision to double/trap KML on the on-ball screens and hand-offs in the half-court was a very good strategy as they must have seen something on film; the coaches and KML will need to be prepared in future games;
• UConn was able to beat ND down the court in transition a lot; in some instances, ND was beaten badly by 2-3 UConn players
• Novosel, Diggins and McBride took 53 of ND's 67 shots (79%) and made a combined 16, which is 30%;
• But as we feared, Diggins and Novosel showed a knack for getting in the lane and drawing fouls, particularly in the 2nd half;
• As we expected, Mallory guarded KML and did an excellent job fighting through screens and defending her;
• I saw some positives from Stokes and Dolson yesterday;
• I don't have any doubt that UConn can and will beat ND in Hartford and if they meet on a neutral court.

 

[speedoo]

Some things I learned from yesterday's game beyond the lack of maturity and poise shown by the UConn players that prevented them from closing out the game:

• Notre Dame is capable of playing better on-ball defense in the half-court than I expected based on previous games;

ND, UConn and Baylor are the best half court defensive teams in the country. no one else is close.

• ND's decision to double/trap KML on the on-ball screens and hand-offs in the half-court was a very good strategy as they must have seen something on film; the coaches and KML will need to be prepared in future games;

Yup that was my thought also. Obvious fix: have Kaleena be ready to quickly pass out of the double team.

• UConn was able to beat ND down the court in transition a lot; in some instances, ND was beaten badly by 2-3 UConn players
• Novosel, Diggins and McBride took 53 of ND's 67 shots (79%) and made a combined 16, which is 30%;
• But as we feared, Diggins and Novosel showed a knack for getting in the lane and drawing fouls, particularly in the 2nd half;

Obvious fix here as well: when Diggins or Novasel starts a drive to the paint, a UConn defender has to move into the lane to draw a charge.

• As we expected, Mallory guarded KML and did an excellent job fighting through screens and defending her;
• I saw some positives from Stokes and Dolson yesterday;

Banks also, IMO.

• I don't have any doubt that UConn can and will beat ND in Hartford and if they meet on a neutral court.

Agreed. ND will not beat UConn again for a while.

 

[UConnCat]

I just realized that 6 of Novosel's 11 FT attempts were in overtime. She was 6-6 in OT. That means UConn held her to 5-20 shooting and she was 4-5 from the FT line in regulation play. Diggins was held to 6-16 on FGs and 4-5 on FTs in regulation. Nothing wrong with that defensive effort on two of the toughest guards in the country to defend. But these stats just make the loss all the more painful.

 

[Ozzie Nelson]

With his team exhausted and distressed at their own performance, Geno chose to scream at them instead of refocusing plan and attention on the OT period, as it looked to me.

Perhaps someone can spin that one for me.

 

[speedoo]

With his team exhausted and distressed at their own performance, Geno chose to scream at them instead of refocusing plan and attention on the OT period, as it looked to me.

Perhaps someone can spin that one for me.

No spin. He's certainly not perfect, but he is the best at what he does. And while he's not changing the way he does it, he may think he erred in that situation and adjust going forward.