UCONN a 5 seed in CBS Bracket, J Palm

[jleves]

I wonder how that's liable to change with the advent of the play-in games. I think play-in games tend to be 12 seeds, and I would expect battle-tested 12 seeds who have already won a game to perform better than other teams seeded around that same level.

I short, I really want to avoid a play-in winner.

My goodness - you want to go deep into the tourney or win championships and you're worried about a 12 seed play in winner? If you're scared of that, why bother to worry about doing well in the tourney at all?

 

[HuskyBoi]

I have an issue with you thinking that we'd be a 5 seed at best if we won against Rutgers and @ Louisville, then reached the finals of the AAC tournament. If we win our last 2 games, we'd be 13-5 giving us a 3 or a 4 seed for the AAC tournament:

If we're a 3 seed we'd most likely play Houston in the tournament, then probably Louisville, then let's say we lose in the final to Cincinatti.

That makes us 27-7 with wins against Florida, Cincinatti, 2x Memphis, 2x Louisville

If we're a 4 seed we'd most likely play Memphis, Cincinatti and then lose to Louisville.

That makes us 27-7 with wins against Florida, 2x Cincinatti, 3x Memphis and Louisville

In either of those situations I'd see us as a strong 4 seed at the very least. If we win the AAC tournament I'd be shocked if we weren't a 3 seed

Not 2x Louisville. We lost to them on the 18th of January.

 

[david]

Not 2x Louisville. We lost to them on the 18th of January.

But he was assuming we'd win out and then get to the championship game of the AAC, which in that particular case means we'd play and beat Louisville in the tournament

 

[HuskyHawk]

I'm not being negative, I'm being realistic. I would love to have us walk into the YUM center and hand Louisville, a loss, but its very unlikely. Then we will have to play our first game in the AAC tourney against a top 25 team in their building. While I think we match up better against them, it will be difficult to beat them a third time in their building. Let's just say the odds of us finishing the year 1-2 are 50% and any other scenario the other 50% Can we beat both....Sure, likely to happen. If we were playing great right now, I might have a different opinion and before the Cinci game this board was just as negative on our play. Or guys are not shooting well right now and Bazz is hurting. We will need to bring our A game to both of these contests coming up.

Why assume we are playing Memphis in the AAC Tourny? SMU closes the season with Louisville and Memphis. Right now, we are in 4th place, but could easily get past SMU if they lose both those games. The #3 seed will get Houston, so it's a nice bonus.

Louisville closes with UConn and SMU, not easy for them either. Memphis has Cinci and SMU. Cinci has Memphis and RU. So of the top 5, three teams have two games against the other top 5, and UConn and Cinci have only one. So there will be more losses at the top.

 

[tzznandrew]

Why assume we are playing Memphis in the AAC Tourny? SMU closes the season with Louisville and Memphis. Right now, we are in 4th place, but could easily get past SMU if they lose both those games. The #3 seed will get Houston, so it's a nice bonus.

Louisville closes with UConn and SMU, not easy for them either. Memphis has Cinci and SMU. Cinci has Memphis and RU. So of the top 5, three teams have two games against the other top 5, and UConn and Cinci have only one. So there will be more losses at the top.

I think most people expect us to lose at Louisville...which means we'd at best tie with SMU, and their sweep of us would really hinder our ability (even in a 3-team tie, say) to come out on top. For instance, if UConn-Memphis-SMU all tied at 12-6, it goes into mini-conference: UConn 2-2; SMU 3-?, Memphis ?-3. We're already locked into coming in second there.

Now, if we beat Louisville on the road, and finish 13-5, we still may get into the 4-5 game.

Looking at their schedules:

Cincy: Memphis, @Rutgers
UConn: Rutgers, @UL
Louisville: @SMU, UConn
SMU: Louisville, @Memphis
Memphis: @Cincy, SMU

Let's say UConn beats Rutgers and Louisville. That puts them at 13-5, and gives Louisville it's 4th loss. Let's assume Cincy beats Memphis at home and wins at Rutgers. They win the conference at 15-3.

Let's assume SMU wins at home and loses on the road. That makes SMU 13-5. It also drops Louisville to 13-5. Memphis would finish at 12-6. So the conference final standings at the top would be:

Cincy: 15-3
SMU: 13-5
Louisville: 13-5
UConn: 13-5
Memphis: 12-6

SMU would be 2-0 against UConn and 1-1 against Louisville...therefore 3-1
Louisville would be 1-1 against both UConn and SMU...therefore 2-2
UConn would be 1-1 against Louisville, but 0-2 against SMU...therefore 1-3.

Sticking us back in that 4-5 matchup.

Even if we beat Louisville, therefore, we need SMU to drop both their games, or we're in the 4-5 game.

 

[ctchamps]

I think most people expect us to lose at Louisville...which means we'd at best tie with SMU, and their sweep of us would really hinder our ability (even in a 3-team tie, say) to come out on top. For instance, if UConn-Memphis-SMU all tied at 12-6, it goes into mini-conference: UConn 2-2; SMU 3-?, Memphis ?-3. We're already locked into coming in second there.

Now, if we beat Louisville on the road, and finish 13-5, we still may get into the 4-5 game.

Looking at their schedules:

Cincy: Memphis, @Rutgers
UConn: Rutgers, @UL
Louisville: @SMU, UConn
SMU: Louisville, @Memphis
Memphis: @Cincy, SMU

Let's say UConn beats Rutgers and Louisville. That puts them at 13-5, and gives Louisville it's 4th loss. Let's assume Cincy beats Memphis at home and wins at Rutgers. They win the conference at 15-3.

Let's assume SMU wins at home and loses on the road. That makes SMU 13-5. It also drops Louisville to 13-5. Memphis would finish at 12-6. So the conference final standings at the top would be:

Cincy: 15-3
SMU: 13-5
Louisville: 13-5
UConn: 13-5
Memphis: 12-6

SMU would be 2-0 against UConn and 1-1 against Louisville...therefore 3-1
Louisville would be 1-1 against both UConn and SMU...therefore 2-2
UConn would be 1-1 against Louisville, but 0-2 against SMU...therefore 1-3.

Sticking us back in that 4-5 matchup.

Even if we beat Louisville, therefore, we need SMU to drop both their games, or we're in the 4-5 game.

Great analysis. Won't be popular, but great job.

 

[Tenspro2002]

My goodness - you want to go deep into the tourney or win championships and you're worried about a 12 seed play in winner? If you're scared of that, why bother to worry about doing well in the tourney at all?

I want every conceivably advantage I could get at every stage. Just because a team has the ability to make a Final Four run, doesn't mean they can't be derailed in the first round.

If I have the choice of facing a power-5 team that stumbled down the stretch and snuck in, rather than a hot mid-major who just won a game 2 days ago, I'll take the former.

 

[tcf15]

Here's Lunardi's updated bracket for UConn:

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

 

[tzznandrew]

Great analysis. Won't be popular, but great job.

Thanks.

 

[nimzovich]

I think most people expect us to lose at Louisville...which means we'd at best tie with SMU, and their sweep of us would really hinder our ability (even in a 3-team tie, say) to come out on top. For instance, if UConn-Memphis-SMU all tied at 12-6, it goes into mini-conference: UConn 2-2; SMU 3-?, Memphis ?-3. We're already locked into coming in second there.

Now, if we beat Louisville on the road, and finish 13-5, we still may get into the 4-5 game.

Looking at their schedules:

Cincy: Memphis, @Rutgers
UConn: Rutgers, @UL
Louisville: @SMU, UConn
SMU: Louisville, @Memphis
Memphis: @Cincy, SMU

Let's say UConn beats Rutgers and Louisville. That puts them at 13-5, and gives Louisville it's 4th loss. Let's assume Cincy beats Memphis at home and wins at Rutgers. They win the conference at 15-3.

Let's assume SMU wins at home and loses on the road. That makes SMU 13-5. It also drops Louisville to 13-5. Memphis would finish at 12-6. So the conference final standings at the top would be:

Cincy: 15-3
SMU: 13-5
Louisville: 13-5
UConn: 13-5
Memphis: 12-6

SMU would be 2-0 against UConn and 1-1 against Louisville...therefore 3-1
Louisville would be 1-1 against both UConn and SMU...therefore 2-2
UConn would be 1-1 against Louisville, but 0-2 against SMU...therefore 1-3.

Sticking us back in that 4-5 matchup.

Even if we beat Louisville, therefore, we need SMU to drop both their games, or we're in the 4-5 game.

Not necessarily.
I think you overlooked another scenario -not likely, but possible.
There is a way SMU can beat Louisville without locking UConn into the 4-5 game.

UConn (vs RU and Ville) and Memphis (vs Cincy and SMU) sweep their remaining games to finish 13-5. Cincy beats RU and finishes 14-4. SMU beats Louisville and both of those teams end up 13-5. Cincy wins the league, with a 4-way tie for 2nd at 13-5.

in the head-to-head tiebreakers,
SMU is 4-2 and awarded 2nd seed.
UConn and Memphis are both 3-3 and UConn wins the tiebreaker for 3rd place (2-0).
Memphis, losing the tiebreaker gets the 4 seed
Louisville at 2-4 would be the 5th seed.

 

[tzznandrew]

Not necessarily.
I think you overlooked another scenario -not likely, but possible.
There is a way SMU can beat Louisville without locking UConn into the 4-5 game.

UConn (vs RU and Ville) and Memphis (vs Cincy and SMU) sweep their remaining games to finish 13-5. Cincy beats RU and finishes 14-4. SMU beats Louisville and both of those teams end up 13-5. Cincy wins the league, with a 4-way tie for 2nd at 13-5.

in the head-to-head tiebreakers,
SMU is 4-2 and awarded 2nd seed.
UConn and Memphis are both 3-3 and UConn wins the tiebreaker for 3rd place (2-0).
Memphis, losing the tiebreaker gets the 4 seed
Louisville at 2-4 would be the 5th seed.

Right. I didn't game out every scenario, so thanks for doing this. Let's just say that I find this particular scenario pretty unlikely. But I hope I'm wrong.