UCONN -8.5 | Page 2 | The Boneyard

UCONN -8.5

navery12 said:
No we didn't blow the lead against St John's or Providence. Providence was 6.5 and we won by 7, and St John's was 7.5 and we won by 9
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We were up big and never let the win percentage get lower than 93% (in the PC game). Would I have preferred the games stayed in the teens-twenties? Yes—I'd have been much happier without two separate 12-0 runs on PC's side. Was I ever worried? No.

Here's the win probability graphs for each game:
Screen Shot 2023-03-13 at 7.34.46 PM.png



Screen Shot 2023-03-13 at 7.34.18 PM.png
 
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uconnfan68 said:
So it’s 50-50?
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Ah, yes. A 1-point road loss in which we controlled most of the game but lost (and a game in which our head coach and some other staff members were out with covid) is 100% equal to the home game we were up 16 and never had less than a 92% chance of winning in the last 10 minutes.
 
auror said:
This was my source.
www.covers.com

UConn Huskies Schedule, Live Scores & Results - NCAAB 2025-2026

Stay Up-To-Date With The Latest UConn Huskies Schedule, Live Scores, And Results For The 2025-2026 NCAAB Season!
www.covers.com www.covers.com
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HuskyWarrior611 might have had a slightly different line from the one on Covers.com when he placed his bet. As I am sure you know, the lines can move slightly near game time depending on which way the bets are going.
 
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tzznandrew said:
Ah, yes. A 1-point road loss in which we controlled most of the game but lost (and a game in which our head coach and some other staff members were out with covid) is 100% equal to the home game we were up 16 and never had less than a 92% chance of winning in the last 10 minutes.
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\s
 
HeGotGame said:
Depends on the number you got it at. Was at 7 but closed at 6.
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Yeah I think I got in at 7. Vegas got it back in blood after I got in at the right time for Nova.
 
If we get past Iona I think we make the sweet 16. Let's see Hurley win more than 1 game in the tourney for he first time.
 
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navery12 said:
No we didn't blow the lead against St John's or Providence. Providence was 6.5 and we won by 7, and St John's was 7.5 and we won by 9
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I should have clarified. Blown leads in relation to the spread. They were up 16 on seton hall with 6 minutes. Then a comedy of errors ensued and they didn't cover the 11(?).

They were up 17 on SJU with 13 remaining and barely escaped that one winning by 9 (7.5 pt spread).

Then the debacle that occured at MSG against PC. 26 pt lead widdled down to 5.

They were an ATS machine in OOC when their team rating was low, but lately they aren't exactly killing it when it's pts in excess of 5. Missed FTs and TOs seem to be the norm with big leads.
 
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Ripper32 said:
They were an ATS machine in OOC when their team rating was low, but lately they aren't exactly killing it when it's pts in excess of 5. Missed FTs and TOs seem to be the norm with big leads.
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So basically you don't trust the team to cover a large spread because we only cover 2/3 of the time when we specifically blow a big lead. Got it.

We're 5-1 ATS in our last 6 in games where we were favored by more than 5.
 
HuskyWarrior611 said:
Yeah I think I got in at 7. Vegas got it back in blood after I got in at the right time for Nova.
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I can validate I had -7 which was the opening line for some time. Thankfully I hedged PC in game.

There were definitely some "sweaters" toward the end of the season. The easy bets ended when the losing streak began. I stopped betting us heavy.
 
Just got to win by 1! I'm not a gambler but if I was I, I would bet against my team so at least there's a consolation prize incase they lose.
 
Interesting unless the comparative conference strength blows up in your face.

 
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I'm not betting against Uconn and Marquette in a first round game. Both teams could easily be up by way more.
 
I've said it all year and I continue to believe this: We will either win comfortably or lose excruciatingly. I do not see in between.

Yes, if the line is -9, there's a chance we let a 15 point lead be cut to 8 or whatever. But I think it's much more likely that we win by 15-20 or the game comes down to the last possession. (There's also a chance that in the unlikely event of a close game in our favor, fouling pushes the lead to 10-11 in the end anyway.)

If I were allowed to bet on this (living in NY, I'm not, sadly), I would bet both UConn -9 (say, $55 at -110) and a small amount on Iona moneyline (say, $15 at +330).

Edit: I also love Under 143.5 in this game. Yes, Iona plays a high variance pressing style that can lead to short possessions, but I also don't see us being particularly aggressive in taking advantage, and both teams can be so-so in the halfcourt.
 
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Tenspro2002 said:
I've said it all year and I continue to believe this: We will either win comfortably or lose excruciatingly. I do not see in between.

Yes, if the line is -9, there's a chance we let a 15 point lead be cut to 8 or whatever. But I think it's much more likely that we win by 15-20 or the game comes down to the last possession. (There's also a chance that in the unlikely event of a close game in our favor, fouling pushes the lead to 10-11 in the end anyway.)

If I were allowed to bet on this (living in NY, I'm not, sadly), I would bet both UConn -9 (say, $55 at -110) and a small amount on Iona moneyline (say, $15 at +330).

Edit: I also love Under 143.5 in this game. Yes, Iona plays a high variance pressing style that can lead to short possessions, but I also don't see us being particularly aggressive in taking advantage, and both teams can be so-so in the halfcourt.
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You’re in NY and you can’t bet?
 
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