UConn -7.5 v. Providence

[Matt1010]

Big time home matchup against PC tomorrow and the opener is in line with Kenpom spread of -8 (77%).

Just win!

 

[UConnRock]

Big time home matchup against PC tomorrow and the opener is in line with Kenpom spread of -8 (77%).

Just win!

-8 is a big number given UConn's inability to close games w/o drama

 

[bendm]

bet PC to cover before the line drops

 

[Chin Diesel]

Not with a 40 foot pole.

 

[AD DB Burner]

will be in attendance rooting on the huskies with a Friars +7.5 ticket in pocket

 

[Tenspro2002]

If that spread is right, the moneyline would be around -270/+220, which implies that we're like 70% to win. That's way too high.

Setting aside fanhood, I'd take Providence moneyline in that scenario.

 

[BigFanCT]

What an absolute wild line

 

[Matt1010]

Fwiw PC is 5-7 in away/neutral setting games this year

 

[gwhuskyfan]

If that spread is right, the moneyline would be around -270/+220, which implies that we're like 70% to win. That's way too high.

Setting aside fanhood, I'd take Providence moneyline in that scenario.

KenPom has an 8 pt win and a 77% win probability... so pretty in line with Vegas

 

[Deleted at users request]

Where is this line showing up?

 

[Matt1010]

Where is this line showing up?

BetOnline is typically the first market originator for NCAAB

 

[Deleted at users request]

BetOnline is typically the first market originator for NCAAB

Gotcha. I was looking for it to try and parlay it with some of the action for today. Lol

Looking at
SDSU -10.5 for CSU
Xavier -4.5 for Nova
Miami ML for VTech

 

[Husky25]

will be in attendance rooting on the huskies with a Friars +7.5 ticket in pocket

All due respect, I'll be rooting for you to lose money tomorrow (will also be there. 1st game at Gampel this season.).

 

[AD DB Burner]

All due respect, I'll be rooting for you to lose money tomorrow (will also be there. 1st game at Gampel this season.).

I would be happy to lose that bet

 

[Fishy]

-8 is a big number given UConn's inability to close games w/o drama

That is a big number - thought it would be closer.

But I don’t care - just win.

 

[gtcam]

A win even by 1 is good for me
Besides I don’t bet sports

 

[auror]

-8 is a big number given UConn's inability to close games w/o drama

All 13 of our home wins have come by at least 8 points.

 

[HeGotGame]

All 13 of our home wins have come by at least 8 points.

Glad at least one person is paying attention.

 

[superjohn]

All 13 of our home wins have come by at least 8 points.

That's the recipe, we run teams off the court. Close games are really bad for us.

 

[auror]

Of course that is not to say it will definitely happen. Rivalry games play close usually. But "big number" is what we do, generally.

 

[MrSec238]

Almost feel like if we win it will be by 10+. If its a tight game its prob not a good thing

 

[uconnfan68]

All 13 of our home wins have come by at least 8 points.

Past performance is not an indicator of future outcomes.

 

[XLCenterFan]

That's a massive number. If any of the top 5 BE teams play, and the line is 7.5, I would take the points every single time.

 

[auror]

Past performance is not an indicator of future outcomes.

It's absolutely an indicator, that's the whole point of predictive metrics. It's just not a guarantor.

 

[PNolanFan]

I feel like the team is ready to womp providence. I like us winning by double digits

 

[Kemba Time]

That's a massive number. If any of the top 5 BE teams play, and the line is 7.5, I would take the points every single time.

Kinda surprising how many games between the top 5 don't fall into that range. Back of the napkin math so def a chance i missed or miscounted something here, but ...

More than 7.5 points: Eight games
Involving UConn: vs. Creighton, vs. Marq, at Prov, at X (4)
Not involving us: Creighton-Marq, Prov-Marq, Creighton-Prov, X-Creighton (4)

Less than 7.5 points: Nine games
Involving UConn: at Creighton, at Marq, vs. X (3)
Not involving us: Marq-X, Marq-Prov, Prov-Creighton, Prov-X, X-Marq, Creighton-X (6)

 

[HeGotGame]

Kinda surprising how many games between the top 5 don't fall into that range. Back of the napkin math so def a chance i missed or miscounted something here, but ...

More than 7.5 points: Eight games
Involving UConn: vs. Creighton, vs. Marq, at Prov, at X (4)
Not involving us: Creighton-Marq, Prov-Marq, Creighton-Prov, X-Creighton (4)

Less than 7.5 points: Nine games
Involving UConn: at Creighton, at Marq, vs. X (3)
Not involving us: Marq-X, Marq-Prov, Prov-Creighton, Prov-X, X-Marq, Creighton-X (6)

Both Xavier games were under 7.5. We were -6 at home and -3 at Xavier.

Considering we were just -5.5 at home against Marquette 2 weeks ago I don't get why anyone is surprised by this line.

 

[Kemba Time]

Both Xavier games were under 7.5. We were -6 at home and -3 at Xavier.

Considering we were just -5.5 at home against Marquette 2 weeks ago I don't get why anyone is surprised by this line.

Just to clarify, my post is about the actual result of all these games not the lines

 

[HeGotGame]

Just to clarify, my post is about the actual result of all these games not the lines

Gotcha. My bad.

 

[JB75]

Did I read that correctly ? UConn -7.5???? That a joke? Thought it wud be like 3-3.5