UConn -5.5 | Page 3 | The Boneyard

UConn -5.5

3rdbass said:
I did that UCONN is a good team and I'm not giving up on them.I think you need some faith you fair weather fan. Believe in the plan. You look like a fool now.
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A fool in one’s eyes is brilliant in another’s(Confucius, 101BC).
 
Hurleyman216 said:
I actually think we cover the line tonight....with Hawkins having more confidence I think he'll have a big breakout game. If he and Polley both get going from deep we are a totally different team. We do need Sanogo to stay out of foul trouble, but if he can do that and we can get him some touches early I think we win going away. The team is desperate need of a big win and I'm optimistic we get it tonight.
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Just going to leave this here….
 
HeGotGame said:
No casino or book allows you to "rescind" a bet.
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Fanduel actually allows you to cash out bets at cost before an event starts or during event with the refund amount adjusted based on the live action

Hilarious cold takes in this thread. Queue the will Ferrell what an idiot GIF
 
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2014DualCs said:
There are things people quickly forget about when they go to place money on a game. First and foremost... "they do not build casinos in the desert for no reason".

My strategy revolves around fading the public/$ and has worked very well for me in the past (hitting at a 66% clip on NCAAB, well above the 55% professionals claim). For example, last night Temple was -4 against 6-13 USF... 99% (!!!) of the public was on Temple with about 14K people betting on it. It seems too good to be true, why only a -4 favorite against such a horrid team? Well, the linemakers know a lot more than us and USF ended up winning by 3pts (I won on +4 and Vegas RAKED).

Very similar to a week ago or so when 6-12 ASU being +6 against a 19th ranked USC. 96% (!!!) public was on USC, ASU ended up losing by 5.

Although you obviously don't win 100% of the time with this strategy (and these being the absolute extreme cases), tonight looks like another bet I'll be making and it's on the Huskies.

22% of the bets on UConn, only 16% of the $ is on UConn (and the line is going up!). I'll be happily siding with Vegas because yet again they know a lot more than us. Pair that with Marquette 5-0 ATS their last 5 and UConn 0-3 ATS their last 3, I see a regression to the mean for both teams in terms of ATS wins/losses.
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2014DualCs said:
Side note: if you regularly gamble on any college or professional sports, I highly recommend downloading the Action Sports Network on your phone and paying for the Pro version. I believe it's about $120 per year and worth every penny.

Big $, Sharp $, System (betting model), Edge (line vs. Action Networks suggested line), and Pro (Accounts of pro bettors picking which side they're on) indicators to help guide you to more gambling wins.
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I’m going to follow @Hurleyman216 and leave this here as well to help people going forward lol
 
BoukofJames said:
Fanduel actually allows you to cash out bets at cost before an event starts or during event with the refund amount adjusted based on the live action

Hilarious cold takes in this thread. Queue the will Ferrell what an idiot GIF
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Interesting. I certainly wish my book allowed it when I took the over in Pitt/MSU bowl game before Pickett announced he was not playing.
 
2014DualCs said:
There are things people quickly forget about when they go to place money on a game. First and foremost... "they do not build casinos in the desert for no reason".

My strategy revolves around fading the public/$ and has worked very well for me in the past (hitting at a 66% clip on NCAAB, well above the 55% professionals claim). For example, last night Temple was -4 against 6-13 USF... 99% (!!!) of the public was on Temple with about 14K people betting on it. It seems too good to be true, why only a -4 favorite against such a horrid team? Well, the linemakers know a lot more than us and USF ended up winning by 3pts (I won on +4 and Vegas RAKED).

Very similar to a week ago or so when 6-12 ASU being +6 against a 19th ranked USC. 96% (!!!) public was on USC, ASU ended up losing by 5.

Although you obviously don't win 100% of the time with this strategy (and these being the absolute extreme cases), tonight looks like another bet I'll be making and it's on the Huskies.

22% of the bets on UConn, only 16% of the $ is on UConn (and the line is going up!). I'll be happily siding with Vegas because yet again they know a lot more than us. Pair that with Marquette 5-0 ATS their last 5 and UConn 0-3 ATS their last 3, I see a regression to the mean for both teams in terms of ATS wins/losses.
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I love fading the public. It’s hard to do sometimes. In the NFL, when you fade the public , you often end up betting on the jets or the jags. Where do you get your stats for % of bets vs. % of money? I would like to see those numbers when I bet as well.
 
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huskiesouth said:
Everyone already knew you were a troll but seeing @huskiesouth @buddy @Nicklo28 like the post sheds light on some more of them.
Based upon our previous two games and Marquette’s recent games thinking we would lose was a reasonable conclusion. Glad I was proven wrong.
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buddy said:
I didn't want to jinx them.
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Thank you for your interest in UConn basketball.
 
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HeGotGame said:
I see these posts and I always add more onto my bet. There are no Christmas presents, only sheep lining up for the slaughter.
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Good for you. Based on how the two teams were trending respectively going into the game, I still wouldn’t have touched it with a ten foot pole.
 
XLCenterFan said:
I love fading the public. It’s hard to do sometimes. In the NFL, when you fade the public , you often end up betting on the jets or the jags. Where do you get your stats for % of bets vs. % of money? I would like to see those numbers when I bet as well.
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@XLCenterFan I posted where I get it in a post directly after my original. The app Action Sports Network (pay for pro, it's worth it if you gamble regularly).

But yes, it's most certainly an art. Blindly fading the public on every game you bet will have you eating ramen in no time. Siding with the "Sharp" $ and "Big" $ differences on a side that also sees very little public action is where to start. After that, just looking for weird lines like my original post stated.

Another example, last night you have the #1 team in the country going to Arkansas only at -1.5... 72% of public was on Auburn because why not?? Arkansas ends up winning.

Will not be 100% wins, no gambling ever is, but I promise it'll be profitable over time.
 
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2014DualCs said:
@XLCenterFan I posted where I get it in a post directly after my original. The app Action Sports Network (pay for pro, it's worth it if you gamble regularly).

But yes, it's most certainly an art. Blindly fading the public on every game you bet will have you eating ramen in no time. Siding with the "Sharp" $ and "Big" $ differences on a side that also sees very little public action is where to start. After that, just looking for weird lines like my original post stated.

Another example, last night you have the #1 team in the country going to Arkansas only at -1.5... 72% of public was on Auburn because why not?? Arkansas ends up winning.

Will not be 100% wins, no gambling ever is, but I promise it'll be profitable over time.
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Well put. I am in an NFL pick em pool (ATS) with 10 guys. I find that when everyone has the same team, it loses more than it wins. I try to zig when they zag. However, this season it felt like public teams covered more than usual. Like TB -10 won more than it should have, and books got smoked some weekends. I can go back and try to get the exact numbers, but there were NFL weekends this season where Joe Public won a bunch.
 
XLCenterFan said:
Well put. I am in an NFL pick em pool (ATS) with 10 guys. I find that when everyone has the same team, it loses more than it wins. I try to zig when they zag. However, this season it felt like public teams covered more than usual. Like TB -10 won more than it should have, and books got smoked some weekends. I can go back and try to get the exact numbers, but there were NFL weekends this season where Joe Public won a bunch.
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NFL is probably the best handicapped sport by Vegas. Makes it one of the more difficult to bet. For fading the public there are numbers supporting fading any game that has a side with 70%+ public and 80%+ public for NFL, with each hitting at a higher clip respectively (both above 57% if I remember correctly = profitable and professional win %). Anything under that requires a true analysis into the matchups within the matchups. That's why I let the sharp bettors do that work and steal their ideas using the Action Sports Network (Pro) as they have sharp indicators on a side.

Side note: next year I suggest listening to "Bet the Board" podcast as they don't necessarily give you many picks, but do a great job with their analysis on some of the bigger games and have you lean towards a side.
 
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