There are things people quickly forget about when they go to place money on a game. First and foremost... "they do not build casinos in the desert for no reason".
My strategy revolves around fading the public/$ and has worked very well for me in the past (hitting at a 66% clip on NCAAB, well above the 55% professionals claim). For example, last night Temple was -4 against 6-13 USF... 99% (!!!) of the public was on Temple with about 14K people betting on it. It seems too good to be true, why only a -4 favorite against such a horrid team? Well, the linemakers know a lot more than us and USF ended up winning by 3pts (I won on +4 and Vegas RAKED).
Very similar to a week ago or so when 6-12 ASU being +6 against a 19th ranked USC. 96% (!!!) public was on USC, ASU ended up losing by 5.
Although you obviously don't win 100% of the time with this strategy (and these being the absolute extreme cases), tonight looks like another bet I'll be making and it's on the Huskies.
22% of the bets on UConn, only 16% of the $ is on UConn (and the line is going up!). I'll be happily siding with Vegas because yet again they know a lot more than us. Pair that with Marquette 5-0 ATS their last 5 and UConn 0-3 ATS their last 3, I see a regression to the mean for both teams in terms of ATS wins/losses.