UConn +3 v. Cincy

[Jerry1714]

Cincy opens as a 3 point home favorite for tomorrow

 

[4in16]

Not surprising, though I'd expect it to go +1.5 to +2 by tip.

 

[Ts5034]

This will probably be another ugly game thats won on the defensive end. I can see another game played in the 50's. Thats always how it is when we play Cincy

 

[Tacodrone]

I like that line, think Vegas is catching on to the over/under tho

 

[dennismenace]

Another "rock fight".

 

[UConNation]

Not surprising, though I'd expect it to go +1.5 to +2 by tip.

Agree completely. Vegas wants the public on Cinci. I think they're projecting a 1-3 point win for UConn. A couple hours before the game, check the public action on Cinci, if you've got 60-70% of the money on Cinci and the line is around -1.5 Cinci, you can bet that Vegas thinks we'll win.

 

[TasteofUConn]

I'm not in the "rock fight" crowd.

I think we've hit stride.

I think Jalen shreds them, and we win by a few baskets, figure 6-8 points.

 

[huskiesnyc]

Loading UConn for sure

 

[whaler11]

'Vegas' doesn't even make lines.

Nobody sets a line 4-6 points off purposely.

 

[kobe]

Love you guys but we are going to win this and cover the spread. Peace.

 

[gtcam]

Love you guys but we are going to win this and cover the spread. Peace.

Yeah Yeah
Until the game clock reads 00:00 at end of second half and any applicable O/T......
There is no love and there is no peace
Sorry but that's the way things got to be

 

[auror]

Agree completely. Vegas wants the public on Cinci. I think they're projecting a 1-3 point win for UConn. A couple hours before the game, check the public action on Cinci, if you've got 60-70% of the money on Cinci and the line is around -1.5 Cinci, you can bet that Vegas thinks we'll win.

Huh? If Vegas wants the public on Cincy, then they'd have set the line closer to UConn, because the public makes the obvious play (in this case taking the higher ranked/better record UConn getting points). But you and I agree the line will move towards UConn but that only happens if there's more money on UConn so how can 70% of the money be on Cincy then?

If you're saying that Vegas wants sharp money (on UConn) and public money (on Cincy) on opposite sides, that's probably true. But I don't see the line moving down to 1.5 in that scenario if the public is on Cincy, and that's assuming the public would be on Cincy in the first place, which I also doubt.

 

[UConNation]

Huh? If Vegas wants the public on Cincy, then they'd have set the line closer to UConn, because the public makes the obvious play (in this case taking the higher ranked/better record UConn getting points). But you and I agree the line will move towards UConn but that only happens if there's more money on UConn so how can 70% of the money be on Cincy then?

If you're saying that Vegas wants sharp money (on UConn) and public money (on Cincy) on opposite sides, that's probably true. But I don't see the line moving down to 1.5 in that scenario if the public is on Cincy, and that's assuming the public would be on Cincy in the first place, which I also doubt.

Yeah, I'm saying that they're giving points for Cinci and betting that the public will continue to take Cinci. It was pretty late in my part of the world when I wrote that, so I'm not sure what part of my brain wasn't working when I said that public play on Cinci would push the line towards UConn if Vegas is picking UConn. That being said, I still think the line will end up at about -1.5 Cinci, that you'll see about 60-65% of public action on Cinci, and that Vegas does in fact believe UConn will win.

 

[4in16]

Already at 2.5.

 

[whaler11]

Vegas isn't picking anyone.

They don't set the lines, all the casinos move on air and there are dozens upon dozens of games today.

Where do people come up with these crazy ideas that Vegas who doesn't even set the lines is taking some position trying to trick the 'public' onto a side in one random game out of 100?

Offshore books opened at three based on their formulas, money has moved it to 2.5. That's it - there isn't any grand plan to trick bets onto one side or another.

 

[Peacefrog]

I believe we've shot well below our average beyond the arc the last two, maybe three games. This would be a good game to get hot.

 

[whaler11]

'Vegas' is so influential that William Hill just released lines for today's games and Stations and the Wynn don't have totals up yet. Memphis USF starts in an hour and fifteen minutes and these clown Vegas casinos don't have numbers up.

Yeah they are sophisticated enough to do more than copy lines from Pinny and move when they do.

 

[dennismenace]

I'm not in the "rock fight" crowd.

I think we've hit stride.

I think Jalen shreds them, and we win by a few baskets, figure 6-8 points.

"rockfight" term used to indicate a very physical tough game. I think it is reasonable to expect that in Cincy.
Lines don't really mean much to the players in the game. So the point spread set by Vegas or commented on here
is not really the point I was trying to make. I hope they win handily but I would venture a guess that it will be pretty physical and Cincy will give
them a battle. Hope that they are able to stay on the beam after a great game Thursday and a tough matchup 48 hours later.

 

[David 76]

I always thought "the book"just wanted a 50/50 split and lived off the vig. That they are not gamblers but live off others'gambling

 

[whaler11]

I always thought "the book"just wanted a 50/50 split and lived off the vig. That they are not gamblers but live off others'gambling

It's not true. First of all it's nearly impossible to do - secondly they don't even try, they move their lines based off what market leaders do regardless if they took any money or not.

 

[Jerry1714]

I always thought "the book"just wanted a 50/50 split and lived off the vig. That they are not gamblers but live off others'gambling

I have no idea why this fallacy keeps getting perpetuated, it is not how it works.

 

[TasteofUConn]

It's not true. First of all it's nearly impossible to do - secondly they don't even try, they move their lines based off what market leaders do regardless if they took any money or not.

I don't know squat about gambling, but my understanding was this:
The "line" is based on the amount of money coming in on each side. As the money starts to pile up on one side, the "line" moves toward the other team, causing money to be bet on the other team, thereby evening the money out. In the end, the casinos make money by paying out less than what they take in. In other words, if they take in a million on one team, and a million on the other, and they pay out 1.8 million to the winning bets, they profit.
Obviously that is simplified, but it's just a numbers game, no? And the only way they lose is if they let too much money pile up on one side of the bet.
This is like being a gold dealer - you don't care too much what the price of gold is, you just buy at a price lower than spot and sell at a price higher than spot.
In both cases, CHURN is what you are looking for, not correctly guessing whether the bet (spot price) is going up or down.

 

[David 76]

I have no idea why this fallacy keeps getting perpetuated, it is not how it works.

Because it makes sense?

 

[methodology]

It's not true. First of all it's nearly impossible to do - secondly they don't even try, they move their lines based off what market leaders do regardless if they took any money or not.

Don't have article but bodog ceo says otherwise. Books don't set lines, you are correct in that aspect. Odds makers set lines and books use those lines. The lines odds makers set are to entice as close to 50/50 action as possible and those lines continually move based on the market and money coming in on each side.

All the public numbers for 60% is on this side are completely meaningless. Those numbers are number of bets not the amount of action. There could be 60 bets on team A but for only $1000 meanwhile the 40 bets on team B could be for 5k and the line will move to become less favorable for team B.

Books are brokers who live off the vig. That's how the business works and how casinos profit. All their games are set up that the house has the edge.

I trust the bodog ceo and having meet Sheldon aldeson and talked about this subject

 

[whaler11]

Don't have article but bodog ceo says otherwise. Books don't set lines, you are correct in that aspect. Odds makers set lines and books use those lines. The lines odds makers set are to entice as close to 50/50 action as possible and those lines continually move based on the market and money coming in on each side.

All the public numbers for 60% is on this side are completely meaningless. Those numbers are number of bets not the amount of action. There could be 60 bets on team A but for only $1000 meanwhile the 40 bets on team B could be for 5k and the line will move to become less favorable for team B.

Books are brokers who live off the vig. That's how the business works and how casinos profit. All their games are set up that the house has the edge.

I trust the bodog ceo and having meet Sheldon aldeson and talked about this subject

Good lord. Bodog.com. When I'm at my laptop I'll explain to y'all how it works.