whaler11
Head Happy Hour Coach
- Joined
- Aug 27, 2011
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This will get lost in the flurry of posts after a loss but I'll explain to you how the college basketball betting markets work.
First thing you need to know: Vegas does not matter. The vast majority of sports books in Las Vegas are run by two companies. Cantor Gaming (a division of Cantor Fitzgerald) and William Hill. Neither have any interest in having any risk - anyone that wins with them they cut off. Either they limit their bets to be so small as to be worthless or they don't allow them to bet at all.
Where do the lines come from? There are quasi-legitimate offshore books that open college basketball early. Heritage is usually the first to the market. To give some context, Heritage had numbers up on tomorrow's games before most of the Las Vegas 'books' had numbers posted on today's games.
Heritage posts a number with very low limits and allows bettors to shape the number with their bets. BetOnline is usually second and they post a number similar to Heritage with limits around $500. BetOnline also limits anyone with a pulse in time - if you win consistently they shut you off.
After Heritage and BetOnline use early money to shape their lines the legitimate offshore books release lines. BetOnline and Heritage immediately move to the same line that is released by Pinnacle. Pinnacle is a book in the UK which American's can't use - unless they are especially computer savvy. Pinnacle ramps up their limits pretty quickly and for a college basketball side they take bets up to $5,000. Bookmaker is the second most legitimate book and they publish the same number as Pinnacle.
So the offshores take bets at their limits for a half a day before anyone in 'Vegas' releases a number. Cantor and William Hill release the same number that Pinnacle has posted - they know once Pinnacle is taking 5k bets for hours the number is solid.
Once you get to this point everyone moves together. Generally they follow Pinnacle and Bookmaker because they take legitimate bets from legitimate bettors - but everyone moves on 'air'. When I say they move on 'air' - they move to the same number that the legitimate offshore books move to. The Westgate in Vegas is probably the most legitimate book in the city - and their manager admitted on a podcast just last week they move with the market - because if you have a number that is out of line it gets bet.
The numbers move based not on how much money is on each side, but based on who bets them. The books have profiled everyone who wagers with them and they know who to react to. If Pinnacle takes a limit bet from a respected bettor they move the line and the entire market moves with them. If a Boneyarder walks into a casino in Vegas and makes a limit bet it's not going to move the market.
10 seconds of considering the ability to get equal monetary action on both sides of a games.... pretty much goes out out the window if you watch a line feed. Since everyone moves together - there can't be any way in the world that all the books are taking the same amount of action to force the line moves.
If you think 'Vegas' is taking a position on a regular season college basketball game when they have 100 games on the board..... please stop talking about gambling. Vegas doesn't set lines nor does the market react to them. If you thought they had an opinion how would you explain they didn't have lines or totals published at 10:00 am this morning for the noon games?
I made my first bets when I was 15. I've been at this 27 years. I've run a book, I've bet offshore, I've hung around the Vegas books. It took me 20 years to figure out what I'm doing.... but I know this stuff inside and out - I beg you to stop repeating things are 100% false.
One additional point - if you are quoting any website that publishes bet percentages you've completely lost your way. The information is garbage - if it was of any value nobody would give it to you.
First thing you need to know: Vegas does not matter. The vast majority of sports books in Las Vegas are run by two companies. Cantor Gaming (a division of Cantor Fitzgerald) and William Hill. Neither have any interest in having any risk - anyone that wins with them they cut off. Either they limit their bets to be so small as to be worthless or they don't allow them to bet at all.
Where do the lines come from? There are quasi-legitimate offshore books that open college basketball early. Heritage is usually the first to the market. To give some context, Heritage had numbers up on tomorrow's games before most of the Las Vegas 'books' had numbers posted on today's games.
Heritage posts a number with very low limits and allows bettors to shape the number with their bets. BetOnline is usually second and they post a number similar to Heritage with limits around $500. BetOnline also limits anyone with a pulse in time - if you win consistently they shut you off.
After Heritage and BetOnline use early money to shape their lines the legitimate offshore books release lines. BetOnline and Heritage immediately move to the same line that is released by Pinnacle. Pinnacle is a book in the UK which American's can't use - unless they are especially computer savvy. Pinnacle ramps up their limits pretty quickly and for a college basketball side they take bets up to $5,000. Bookmaker is the second most legitimate book and they publish the same number as Pinnacle.
So the offshores take bets at their limits for a half a day before anyone in 'Vegas' releases a number. Cantor and William Hill release the same number that Pinnacle has posted - they know once Pinnacle is taking 5k bets for hours the number is solid.
Once you get to this point everyone moves together. Generally they follow Pinnacle and Bookmaker because they take legitimate bets from legitimate bettors - but everyone moves on 'air'. When I say they move on 'air' - they move to the same number that the legitimate offshore books move to. The Westgate in Vegas is probably the most legitimate book in the city - and their manager admitted on a podcast just last week they move with the market - because if you have a number that is out of line it gets bet.
The numbers move based not on how much money is on each side, but based on who bets them. The books have profiled everyone who wagers with them and they know who to react to. If Pinnacle takes a limit bet from a respected bettor they move the line and the entire market moves with them. If a Boneyarder walks into a casino in Vegas and makes a limit bet it's not going to move the market.
10 seconds of considering the ability to get equal monetary action on both sides of a games.... pretty much goes out out the window if you watch a line feed. Since everyone moves together - there can't be any way in the world that all the books are taking the same amount of action to force the line moves.
If you think 'Vegas' is taking a position on a regular season college basketball game when they have 100 games on the board..... please stop talking about gambling. Vegas doesn't set lines nor does the market react to them. If you thought they had an opinion how would you explain they didn't have lines or totals published at 10:00 am this morning for the noon games?
I made my first bets when I was 15. I've been at this 27 years. I've run a book, I've bet offshore, I've hung around the Vegas books. It took me 20 years to figure out what I'm doing.... but I know this stuff inside and out - I beg you to stop repeating things are 100% false.
One additional point - if you are quoting any website that publishes bet percentages you've completely lost your way. The information is garbage - if it was of any value nobody would give it to you.