UConn +3 v. Cincy | The Boneyard

UConn +3 v. Cincy

Status
Not open for further replies.
Not surprising, though I'd expect it to go +1.5 to +2 by tip.
 
This will probably be another ugly game thats won on the defensive end. I can see another game played in the 50's. Thats always how it is when we play Cincy
 
4in16 said:
Not surprising, though I'd expect it to go +1.5 to +2 by tip.
Expand ...
Agree completely. Vegas wants the public on Cinci. I think they're projecting a 1-3 point win for UConn. A couple hours before the game, check the public action on Cinci, if you've got 60-70% of the money on Cinci and the line is around -1.5 Cinci, you can bet that Vegas thinks we'll win.
 
.-.
I'm not in the "rock fight" crowd.

I think we've hit stride.

I think Jalen shreds them, and we win by a few baskets, figure 6-8 points.
 
'Vegas' doesn't even make lines.

Nobody sets a line 4-6 points off purposely.
 
kobe said:
Love you guys but we are going to win this and cover the spread. Peace.
Expand ...


Yeah Yeah
Until the game clock reads 00:00 at end of second half and any applicable O/T......
There is no love and there is no peace
Sorry but that's the way things got to be
 
UConNation said:
Agree completely. Vegas wants the public on Cinci. I think they're projecting a 1-3 point win for UConn. A couple hours before the game, check the public action on Cinci, if you've got 60-70% of the money on Cinci and the line is around -1.5 Cinci, you can bet that Vegas thinks we'll win.
Expand ...

Huh? If Vegas wants the public on Cincy, then they'd have set the line closer to UConn, because the public makes the obvious play (in this case taking the higher ranked/better record UConn getting points). But you and I agree the line will move towards UConn but that only happens if there's more money on UConn so how can 70% of the money be on Cincy then?

If you're saying that Vegas wants sharp money (on UConn) and public money (on Cincy) on opposite sides, that's probably true. But I don't see the line moving down to 1.5 in that scenario if the public is on Cincy, and that's assuming the public would be on Cincy in the first place, which I also doubt.
 
.-.
auror said:
Huh? If Vegas wants the public on Cincy, then they'd have set the line closer to UConn, because the public makes the obvious play (in this case taking the higher ranked/better record UConn getting points). But you and I agree the line will move towards UConn but that only happens if there's more money on UConn so how can 70% of the money be on Cincy then?

If you're saying that Vegas wants sharp money (on UConn) and public money (on Cincy) on opposite sides, that's probably true. But I don't see the line moving down to 1.5 in that scenario if the public is on Cincy, and that's assuming the public would be on Cincy in the first place, which I also doubt.
Expand ...

Yeah, I'm saying that they're giving points for Cinci and betting that the public will continue to take Cinci. It was pretty late in my part of the world when I wrote that, so I'm not sure what part of my brain wasn't working when I said that public play on Cinci would push the line towards UConn if Vegas is picking UConn. That being said, I still think the line will end up at about -1.5 Cinci, that you'll see about 60-65% of public action on Cinci, and that Vegas does in fact believe UConn will win.
 
Vegas isn't picking anyone.

They don't set the lines, all the casinos move on air and there are dozens upon dozens of games today.

Where do people come up with these crazy ideas that Vegas who doesn't even set the lines is taking some position trying to trick the 'public' onto a side in one random game out of 100?

Offshore books opened at three based on their formulas, money has moved it to 2.5. That's it - there isn't any grand plan to trick bets onto one side or another.
 
I believe we've shot well below our average beyond the arc the last two, maybe three games. This would be a good game to get hot.
 
'Vegas' is so influential that William Hill just released lines for today's games and Stations and the Wynn don't have totals up yet. Memphis USF starts in an hour and fifteen minutes and these clown Vegas casinos don't have numbers up.

Yeah they are sophisticated enough to do more than copy lines from Pinny and move when they do.
 
TasteofUConn said:
I'm not in the "rock fight" crowd.

I think we've hit stride.

I think Jalen shreds them, and we win by a few baskets, figure 6-8 points.
Expand ...
"rockfight" term used to indicate a very physical tough game. I think it is reasonable to expect that in Cincy.
Lines don't really mean much to the players in the game. So the point spread set by Vegas or commented on here
is not really the point I was trying to make. I hope they win handily but I would venture a guess that it will be pretty physical and Cincy will give
them a battle. Hope that they are able to stay on the beam after a great game Thursday and a tough matchup 48 hours later.
 
.-.
David 76 said:
I always thought "the book"just wanted a 50/50 split and lived off the vig. That they are not gamblers but live off others'gambling
Expand ...

It's not true. First of all it's nearly impossible to do - secondly they don't even try, they move their lines based off what market leaders do regardless if they took any money or not.
 
David 76 said:
I always thought "the book"just wanted a 50/50 split and lived off the vig. That they are not gamblers but live off others'gambling
Expand ...
I have no idea why this fallacy keeps getting perpetuated, it is not how it works.
 
whaler11 said:
It's not true. First of all it's nearly impossible to do - secondly they don't even try, they move their lines based off what market leaders do regardless if they took any money or not.
Expand ...
I don't know squat about gambling, but my understanding was this:
The "line" is based on the amount of money coming in on each side. As the money starts to pile up on one side, the "line" moves toward the other team, causing money to be bet on the other team, thereby evening the money out. In the end, the casinos make money by paying out less than what they take in. In other words, if they take in a million on one team, and a million on the other, and they pay out 1.8 million to the winning bets, they profit.
Obviously that is simplified, but it's just a numbers game, no? And the only way they lose is if they let too much money pile up on one side of the bet.
This is like being a gold dealer - you don't care too much what the price of gold is, you just buy at a price lower than spot and sell at a price higher than spot.
In both cases, CHURN is what you are looking for, not correctly guessing whether the bet (spot price) is going up or down.
 
whaler11 said:
It's not true. First of all it's nearly impossible to do - secondly they don't even try, they move their lines based off what market leaders do regardless if they took any money or not.
Expand ...

Don't have article but bodog ceo says otherwise. Books don't set lines, you are correct in that aspect. Odds makers set lines and books use those lines. The lines odds makers set are to entice as close to 50/50 action as possible and those lines continually move based on the market and money coming in on each side.

All the public numbers for 60% is on this side are completely meaningless. Those numbers are number of bets not the amount of action. There could be 60 bets on team A but for only $1000 meanwhile the 40 bets on team B could be for 5k and the line will move to become less favorable for team B.

Books are brokers who live off the vig. That's how the business works and how casinos profit. All their games are set up that the house has the edge.

I trust the bodog ceo and having meet Sheldon aldeson and talked about this subject
 
.-.
methodology said:
Don't have article but bodog ceo says otherwise. Books don't set lines, you are correct in that aspect. Odds makers set lines and books use those lines. The lines odds makers set are to entice as close to 50/50 action as possible and those lines continually move based on the market and money coming in on each side.

All the public numbers for 60% is on this side are completely meaningless. Those numbers are number of bets not the amount of action. There could be 60 bets on team A but for only $1000 meanwhile the 40 bets on team B could be for 5k and the line will move to become less favorable for team B.

Books are brokers who live off the vig. That's how the business works and how casinos profit. All their games are set up that the house has the edge.

I trust the bodog ceo and having meet Sheldon aldeson and talked about this subject
Expand ...

Good lord. Bodog.com. When I'm at my laptop I'll explain to y'all how it works.
 
This will get lost in the flurry of posts after a loss but I'll explain to you how the college basketball betting markets work.

First thing you need to know: Vegas does not matter. The vast majority of sports books in Las Vegas are run by two companies. Cantor Gaming (a division of Cantor Fitzgerald) and William Hill. Neither have any interest in having any risk - anyone that wins with them they cut off. Either they limit their bets to be so small as to be worthless or they don't allow them to bet at all.

Where do the lines come from? There are quasi-legitimate offshore books that open college basketball early. Heritage is usually the first to the market. To give some context, Heritage had numbers up on tomorrow's games before most of the Las Vegas 'books' had numbers posted on today's games.

Heritage posts a number with very low limits and allows bettors to shape the number with their bets. BetOnline is usually second and they post a number similar to Heritage with limits around $500. BetOnline also limits anyone with a pulse in time - if you win consistently they shut you off.

After Heritage and BetOnline use early money to shape their lines the legitimate offshore books release lines. BetOnline and Heritage immediately move to the same line that is released by Pinnacle. Pinnacle is a book in the UK which American's can't use - unless they are especially computer savvy. Pinnacle ramps up their limits pretty quickly and for a college basketball side they take bets up to $5,000. Bookmaker is the second most legitimate book and they publish the same number as Pinnacle.

So the offshores take bets at their limits for a half a day before anyone in 'Vegas' releases a number. Cantor and William Hill release the same number that Pinnacle has posted - they know once Pinnacle is taking 5k bets for hours the number is solid.

Once you get to this point everyone moves together. Generally they follow Pinnacle and Bookmaker because they take legitimate bets from legitimate bettors - but everyone moves on 'air'. When I say they move on 'air' - they move to the same number that the legitimate offshore books move to. The Westgate in Vegas is probably the most legitimate book in the city - and their manager admitted on a podcast just last week they move with the market - because if you have a number that is out of line it gets bet.

The numbers move based not on how much money is on each side, but based on who bets them. The books have profiled everyone who wagers with them and they know who to react to. If Pinnacle takes a limit bet from a respected bettor they move the line and the entire market moves with them. If a Boneyarder walks into a casino in Vegas and makes a limit bet it's not going to move the market.

10 seconds of considering the ability to get equal monetary action on both sides of a games.... pretty much goes out out the window if you watch a line feed. Since everyone moves together - there can't be any way in the world that all the books are taking the same amount of action to force the line moves.

If you think 'Vegas' is taking a position on a regular season college basketball game when they have 100 games on the board..... please stop talking about gambling. Vegas doesn't set lines nor does the market react to them. If you thought they had an opinion how would you explain they didn't have lines or totals published at 10:00 am this morning for the noon games?

I made my first bets when I was 15. I've been at this 27 years. I've run a book, I've bet offshore, I've hung around the Vegas books. It took me 20 years to figure out what I'm doing.... but I know this stuff inside and out - I beg you to stop repeating things are 100% false.

One additional point - if you are quoting any website that publishes bet percentages you've completely lost your way. The information is garbage - if it was of any value nobody would give it to you.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Forum statistics

Threads
168,178
Messages
4,555,915
Members
10,441
Latest member
Virginiafan


Top Bottom