UConn 3 PT % Leaders

[ToolzieFan]

I expected Akok to shoot better from 3 (not this well!), and Cole being low isn’t surprising based on his volume, but on the whole, this is indeed very surprising. And yes, I understand that some of these percentages can be explained by small sample sizes and degree of difficulty.

 

[WestHartHusk]

I expected Akok to shoot better from 3 (not this well!), and Cole being low isn’t surprising based on his volume, but on the whole, this is indeed very surprising. And yes, I understand that some of these percentages can be explained by small sample sizes and degree of difficulty.

This is more-or-less completely upside down.

 

[Giddyup5]

Hopefully Polley finishes at 38-39%. Means really productive January and February considering he was below 30% at one point.

 

[HooperScooper]

I was surprised to see that UConn is 2nd in the BE in team 3 point shooting percentage.

UConn stacks up very well against its Big East brethren when it comes to traditional statistics. It probably doesn’t surprise you that the Huskies are tops in the conference in blocked shots, rebounds, rebounding margin, offensive rebounds and field goal percentage defense.

It may surprise you that UConn is second in scoring and 3-point percentage. Yup, 3-point percentage. And that’s not from a small sample size, either: UConn is third in 3-pointers made per game (8.1).

What we’ve learned about UConn men’s basketball at midseason

Where they’ve been and where they’re going: A look at the UConn men’s basketball...

www.nhregister.com

 

[PlayItLeo]

Gaffney in fourth is also pretty misleading considering he hasn't made a 3 since 11/30.

 

[husky429]

This is more-or-less completely upside down.

Martin and Jackson hitting their 3s has been a really pleasant surprise this year. Those guys obviously put in work this off season.

 

[HooperScooper]

What have we learned about UConn men at midseason? When healthy, one of the better teams in country

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Hopefully Polley finishes at 38-39%. Means really productive January and February considering he was below 30% at one point.

Three more games like St John’s and he is close to 40%.
His problem is he thinks he can make every shot and his selection is awful.
His last three against St John’s he made that little fake instead of hoisting it up with a guy in his face. He ended up with an open 3. Hopefully open is better than man in your face sinks in.

 

[SteelCT]

Lol yes, beginning of the season Jackson is #2 on the team in 3p%…never would have believed it

 

[UCLJ0211]

As mentioned, the only ones on here that have shot a high volume of 3s are Cole and Polley (about 80-90 attempts.) Most others have attempted between 20-30. So the question is, at what point does the sample size become large enough to determine if they are good 3-pt shooters? (i.e. Akok and Jackson, for example)? Akok is 12/23 and Ajax is 10/21 for the season.

 

[Umami Zen]

Style points are sometimes over-rated.. AJax is putting the ball in the hoop from three and FT

 

[ToolzieFan]

As mentioned, the only ones on here that have shot a high volume of 3s are Cole and Polley (about 80-90 attempts.) Most others have attempted between 20-30. So the question is, at what point does the sample size become large enough to determine if they are good 3-pt shooters? (i.e. Akok and Jackson, for example)? Akok is 12/23 and Ajax is 10/21 for the season.

I know in baseball, there is a lot of research at what point statistics begin to stabilize. For example, a pitcher's strikeout percentage becomes meaningful a whole lot sooner than their ERA or batting average against (which is more random/variable than you'd expect). I don't know as much about basketball statistics. I'd say that Akok and Jackson have definitely improved their shooting, but I think we all expect those percentages to drop as the season progress.

I think 33% 3-point shooting from Andre Jackson would have been an optimistic, but not totally unreasonable, hope for this season. If that was your prior expectation, than he has made just three more shots than expected. Digging deeper, the chances of a 33% 3-point shooter making 10 or more shots out of 21 is about 12% (obviously we can't take into account shot difficulty, or at least I can't).

I would have expected Akok to make about 35% of his 3-point attempts this year. Let's say we assumed he would shoot 33%. The probability of making 12 or more out of 23 if he was a 33% 3-point shooter would be just over 4%.

What does it mean? I don't know! I expect them both to regress, but even in a small sample I think there is evidence both have legitimately improved their shooting this year. We would benefit from getting Akok a few more corner threes, if possible. They look real good from him. Hopefully any regression by these two will be balanced out by improved shooting from Polley, Hawkins, and hopefully Cole.

 

[husky429]

As mentioned, the only ones on here that have shot a high volume of 3s are Cole and Polley (about 80-90 attempts.) Most others have attempted between 20-30. So the question is, at what point does the sample size become large enough to determine if they are good 3-pt shooters? (i.e. Akok and Jackson, for example)? Akok is 12/23 and Ajax is 10/21 for the season.

I think 3 attempts per game and 35% or better is the minimum I'd personay consider someone a good shooter at.

So yeah, I still wouldn't call us a great shooting team. But we're trending in the right direction because of these guys hard work.

 

[Ronobro]

I (hopefully) think Polley, Cole and Hawkin’s numbers are deceptively low because of Sanogo’s injury. Now that the big man’s back, he’s drawing so much attention that we seem to be able to get much better looks.

 

[navery12]

I (hopefully) think Polley, Cole and Hawkin’s numbers are deceptively low because of Sanogo’s injury. Now that the big man’s back, he’s drawing so much attention that we seem to be able to get much better looks.

I was curious so looked it up.

Cole - 6/30 20% with no Sanogo and 24/60 40% with Sanogo

Polley - 7/26 27% and 20/53 38%

Hawkins - 5/16 31% and 7/19 37%

 

[jibsey]

That list is meaningless without their total attempts and makes. Akok barely plays.

 

[AdamaNation]

Gaffney in fourth is also pretty misleading considering he hasn't made a 3 since 11/30.

Also means he’s aware of that. Which is another good thing.

 

[Ronobro]

I was curious so looked it up.

Cole - 6/30 20% with no Sanogo and 24/60 40% with Sanogo

Polley - 7/26 27% and 20/53 38%

Hawkins - 5/16 31% and 7/19 37%

Awesome. Thanks for looking that up

 

[auror]

I know in baseball, there is a lot of research at what point statistics begin to stabilize. For example, a pitcher's strikeout percentage becomes meaningful a whole lot sooner than their ERA or batting average against (which is more random/variable than you'd expect). I don't know as much about basketball statistics. I'd say that Akok and Jackson have definitely improved their shooting, but I think we all expect those percentages to drop as the season progress.

I think 33% 3-point shooting from Andre Jackson would have been an optimistic, but not totally unreasonable, hope for this season. If that was your prior expectation, than he has made just three more shots than expected. Digging deeper, the chances of a 33% 3-point shooter making 10 or more shots out of 21 is about 12% (obviously we can't take into account shot difficulty, or at least I can't).

I would have expected Akok to make about 35% of his 3-point attempts this year. Let's say we assumed he would shoot 33%. The probability of making 12 or more out of 23 if he was a 33% 3-point shooter would be just over 4%.

What does it mean? I don't know! I expect them both to regress, but even in a small sample I think there is evidence both have legitimately improved their shooting this year. We would benefit from getting Akok a few more corner threes, if possible. They look real good from him. Hopefully any regression by these two will be balanced out by improved shooting from Polley, Hawkins, and hopefully Cole.

It actually takes more than a full NBA season for 3pt% to stabilize. It's more like a full career in college (or 2 years for really voluminous shooters). There's a LOT of variance in it, as this whole thread indicates. Shooting stroke can also be like a golf stroke where guys just lose it for a while and slump, and also people improve over the off-seasons, or have their roles and volume (and thus difficulty of shots) dramatically increase. So really, it never stabilizes in college. Polley with the one COVID shortened year and one injury shortened year is only a little over halfway to stabilizing.

As to your likelihood of shots model, there's actually 2 variables. The skill of the shooter and the difficulty of the shot (also called shot quality). So you'd expect Akok to make 12 average difficulty shots out of 23 only 4% of the time. But he pretty much takes only in rhythm open catch and shoot 3 pointers, which are probably closer to 40-50% makes for 35% average shooters.

 

[husky429]

I was curious so looked it up.

Cole - 6/30 20% with no Sanogo and 24/60 40% with Sanogo

Polley - 7/26 27% and 20/53 38%

Hawkins - 5/16 31% and 7/19 37%

This is really interesting. Sanogo missing some higher level games is definitely a factor here... but his gravity in the post just makes it so much harder to stick tight to shooters. As good as Whaley is, he doesn't provide that level of focus by the defense.

 

[navery12]

This is really interesting. Sanogo missing some higher level games is definitely a factor here... but his gravity in the post just makes it so much harder to stick tight to shooters. As good as Whaley is, he doesn't provide that level of focus by the defense.

That was the next thing I wanted to look at was the splits against good opponents, but didn't get a chance to do yet. I'll post that later

 

[UConnStats]

Martin is really the best surprise here in my eyes. Good for Akok and Jackson, but this is a very small sample for both consisting entirely of wide open looks.

It’s actually pretty disheartening to see your two biggest volume shooters doing as poorly as Cole and Polley have, but the low volume guys are picking up the slack in aggregate.

I think both bookends of this list are going to have to meet somewhere in the middle to keep our team percentage up the rest of the season. The top part is probably unsustainable and the bottom part has a good amount of room for improvement.

I still wish UConn could have added Anglin in their 2022 class. It would be nice knowing we have a guard who can really shoot in our pipeline.

 

[auror]

That was the next thing I wanted to look at was the splits against good opponents, but didn't get a chance to do yet. I'll post that later

Over his career, Cole shoots better from 3 in big games (40% in KenPom 'A' games vs. 36% overall and 36% in A+B). Each year of his career he's shot better in 'A' games than overall (he didn't play a single 'A' game his soph year though).

Polley is the opposite. He's a dreadful shooter in big games and a flamethrower against weak competition (32% in 'A' games, 32% in A+B, 37% overall, 43% against weak competition). Should be noted that although most players become better shooters as they get older, he's had a good chunk of his of A+B games post ACL. But he shot worse than 33% in A+B games in each of the 3 years before injury, too, so this is just a thing with him.

 

[Hungryhusky99]

Surprisingly, this is almost exactly where Tyrese was at at this point in the season last year. He was shooting 43% through the first 10 games and went 3-22 in the last 12 which dropped him to 32% for the year. It would be really hard to have a worse stretch of games this year, but it is fair to expect his number to drop off some the rest of the season.

 

[McLovin]

That list is also descending order of volume. So doesn’t tell the whole story.

Still nice to have 3 guys who can and should make 2 per game shooting at 40%+