UConn -2.5 v Nova

[tykurez]

Wow, I'm surprised. Not because the line is wrong, but because I think that's actually pretty appropriate.

We've usually gotten a lot more credit than we deserve, especially for games that should be close. Our first game was -14.5. Based on home/road, you'd have expected this to be like -7.5.

They're either dinging us for underperformance in this kind of spot (finally), or giving Nova a lot of credit for their recent play.

It’s also interesting because vegas has been pretty much 1:1 with kenpom on our games this year but we’re 5 point favorites there.

 

[August_West]

The only counter they can run is to defend Jackson, which is what we want them to do. They can either defend him, and it opens the lane up for Newton, Hawk, and Karaban to drive the ball, or they can leave him alone, which opens up the lobs and layups for Jackson. I suppose a zone could be another option, but so few teams play zone nowadays that I wouldn't expect anyone to implement it only to try to stop us, and probably not this late in the year. Even if they do, Hawkins would be salivating at how easily he would get open 3s.

There are other components. I could see a coach deciding to hound Sanogo at the top. He’s been very effective operating there , but with very little ball pressure . Easy counters to someone doing it, but the battle is recognition and adjustment.

 

[August_West]

It’s also interesting because vegas has been pretty much 1:1 with kenpom on our games this year but we’re 5 point favorites there.

Ken Pom is season numbers. Vegas is numbers and eye test.

 

[Rico444]

There are other components. I could see a coach deciding to hound Sanogo at the top. He’s been very effective operating there , but with very little ball pressure . Easy counters to someone doing it, but the battle is recognition and adjustment.

Oh yeah there will be other counters for sure, but I don't see anything as substantial as what they did to Jackson earlier this year.

 

[BFieldHusky]

The only counter they can run is to defend Jackson, which is what we want them to do. They can either defend him, and it opens the lane up for Newton, Hawk, and Karaban to drive the ball, or they can leave him alone, which opens up the lobs and layups for Jackson. I suppose a zone could be another option, but so few teams play zone nowadays that I wouldn't expect anyone to implement it only to try to stop us, and probably not this late in the year. Even if they do, Hawkins would be salivating at how easily he would get open 3s.

Great post @Rico444.

Teams have two choices with Jackson. Play him straight up and gamble it will throw Uconn's offense off, or continue to play off him, and have UConn run the same offense they have for the last 6 weeks.

You can only change your defense game plan on defense so much when you have a dominant 3 point shooter in Hawkins, a stretch 4, and 2 very good post players.

 

[BFieldHusky]

There are other components. I could see a coach deciding to hound Sanogo at the top. He’s been very effective operating there , but with very little ball pressure . Easy counters to someone doing it, but the battle is recognition and adjustment.

I don't think this would work. UConn may struggle for 2-3 minutes with this, but if they send a back cut, it will be layup city. Hard to double a guy at the logo/FT line on the floor.

 

[Umami Zen]

FWIW--Its been interesting to watch Hawk and Andre working the new scheme.. Hawk believes there is no better option on the floor to put the ball in the hole than himself--shooter's mentality.. But with Karaban and Andre reversing roles--I've noticed Hawk looking a little bit more for Andre on the baseline/dunker's spot.. If Andre could learn to rub his defender off picks down low(like Hawkins is now doing).. He could be so much more efficient than he's already shown.

What I find so intriguing is the trust that you have to have established with Hawk to "deserve" a look from him..a pass from him.. I believe Andre has got that trust.. Looks to me like they're having a lot of fun and success with the scheme.. Not to mention the rest of the team for other reasons.

 

[husky429]

429 said on that chat that Karaban can’t make a layup off one foot and that whoever taught him how play basketball did a terrible job. I admit I have said some stupid things here or on the chat but really?

He can't make layups off one foot, particularly his right. He uses a jump stop even when he's ahead of the opponent in transition. For such a fundamentally sound player, it's a glaring weakness.

It's not my fault you have no eye for evaluating skills. That would be excuseable if you weren't also being a tool about it.

 

[husky429]

The only counter they can run is to defend Jackson, which is what we want them to do. They can either defend him, and it opens the lane up for Newton, Hawk, and Karaban to drive the ball, or they can leave him alone, which opens up the lobs and layups for Jackson. I suppose a zone could be another option, but so few teams play zone nowadays that I wouldn't expect anyone to implement it only to try to stop us, and probably not this late in the year. Even if they do, Hawkins would be salivating at how easily he would get open 3s.

Transition defense is something opponents will look to tighten up to stop that. We have been extremely effective when Jackson runs in transition with the ball, and gets to the dunker-ish, turns his back to the baseline and initiates the offense from there. If they could that spot away from him, we'd get a few less easy buckets.

Like anything... easier said than done. But it's what I'd try to do.

Other things I'd so... force Karaban left, double with Newton and Alleyne's man (streaky... hope for the best), try to force Alleyne and Hawkins into mid-range shots, and try to force Sanogo away from the top of the key. He clearly put in the work to learn to operate there... not nearly as effective on the wing.

Reality is that if 3 of Hawkins, Newton, Alleyne and Karaban are hitting shots... we probably aren't losing.

 

[CTBasketball]

Is roast pork really worth it? Debating where to get lunch down here.

 

[Ripper32]

Is Nova going to ISO? I think our guards are too big to try that. They were doing it against the Hall, but it just slows things up and keeps their offense static.

 

[UConnSwag11]

Is Nova going to ISO? I think our guards are too big to try that. They were doing it against the Hall, but it just slows things up and keeps their offense static.

They’ll go for it. That’s what they do. It’ll be interesting to see if we allow them to go at our guys 1v1 or not

 

[UConnSwag11]

From here on out it’ll come down to in game management when the game gets tight or we get down.

 

[Ripper32]

If we keep Armstrong and Whitmore under 20 combined, we win. When those two are playing well, Nova is hard to beat. Dixon and Moore will get their points.

 

[Punkbo]

Is roast pork really worth it? Debating where to get lunch down here.

I’d recommend about 12 Guinness and 2 cheesesteaks. That was always a winning formula for me.

 

[Giddyup5]

I know you love nothing more than to hate on Jackson, but why do you think teams aren't completely ignoring him? We've changed our offense, specifically the positioning of Jackson and Karaban, so that Jackson can't be ignored on offense. He's not hanging around the 3 point line anymore, he's cutting to the basket and getting himself in spots where he can make passes for wide open shots or gets to the basket for layups/dunks

I really don’t want to hate on Jackson. Honestly. He’s an incredibly hard worker and I even said in my post the recognition he and Hurley deserve.

I hope your right.

But if I’m the opposing coach that’s the hill I’m going to die on. Let Jackson beat you offensively.

I’ll say Creighton and Xavier’s defensive game plan was taken to the extreme compared to Providence, Hall, DePaul, Marquette. At times they literally would have their back to him.

Perhaps they won’t now that Jackson/Hurley have changed. I hope you’re right.

 

[Palatine]

It’s also interesting because vegas has been pretty much 1:1 with kenpom on our games this year but we’re 5 point favorites there.

5 point is also almost exactly the Sagarin predictor.

 

[auror]

I nailed the spread a week ago. It's definitely respect for Nova (and road ranked team at unranked team on senior night primetime).

 

[August_West]

Is roast pork really worth it? Debating where to get lunch down here.

Yes!

 

[Rico444]

I really don’t want to hate on Jackson. Honestly. He’s an incredibly hard worker and I even said in my post the recognition he and Hurley deserve.

I hope your right.

But if I’m the opposing coach that’s the hill I’m going to die on. Let Jackson beat you offensively.

I’ll say Creighton and Xavier’s defensive game plan was taken to the extreme compared to Providence, Hall, DePaul, Marquette. At times they literally would have their back to him.

Perhaps they won’t now that Jackson/Hurley have changed. I hope you’re right.

Let opposing coaches do that; Andre will get easy dunks all day if defenses ignore him.

 

[HooperScooper]

Is roast pork really worth it? Debating where to get lunch down here.

I like it better than cheesesteaks. Get 1 of both and split both with someone and you can decide for yourself.

 

[Waquoit]

But if I’m the opposing coach...

If only...

 

[August_West]

I like it better than cheesesteaks. Get 1 of both and split both with someone and you can decide for yourself.

The problem with that move is you’ll wish you had both halves of the pork

 

[HooperScooper]

The problem with that move is you’ll wish you had both halves of the pork

There's always more available from where the first one came from.

 

[CTBasketball]

Yes!