UConn -13.5

[JayKoz]

You've already lost the original bet! It's a sunk cost.

The goal, once you're left with a bonus bet, is to optimize the EV of the bonus bet itself. See above.

I look at long run rather than just that singular bet, but that’s me.

 

[Tenspro2002]

I look at long run rather than just that singular bet, but that’s me.

Maximizing the EV of every individual bet is how you win in the long run.

 

[twiceahusky]

It's not a philosophical "might as well put it on a longshot" view, it's just math.

If you have a $5 free bet, if you win you don't get your stake back, only the winnings. So if you put it on something -110, you'll win your $4.50 or whatever half of the time, for an EV of $2.25.

On the other hand, if you put it on a +300 underdog who -- accounting for vig and even being pessimistic -- have a 20% chance of winning, you'll win the $15 20% of the time for an EV of $3.

The fact that you don't get back your original stake makes it higher EV to put bonus bets on underdogs in the +300 to +500 range.

Easier to track EV with 50/50 parlays (at exactly -110 at Fanduel payouts). I did it with $5 bets …

1 team = $2.27
2 team = $3.30
3 team = $3.72
4 team = $3.84
5 team = $3.81
6 team = $3.71

Never thought of it that way, thanks tenspro2002. It’ll be 3 team parlays for me with those bonus bets going forward.

But you did come on a bit strong with the “dear God” line … if we’re talking EV and ROI, posting on the boneyard is NOT very profitable either .

 

[Sphinx]

Game day at UConn after bad loss. It should be a blowout. Don’t let hausen shoot, game over

Nice call!

 

[MrSec238]

Houston 82, Baylor 76 in OT

Was working on willing it to life. Baylor was so bad in OT

 

[bendm]

Really need to thump Nova to prevent dropping too far in the rankings. Guessing we'll be #3 in the next poll behind Purdue and Houston. I really impressive win and maybe we only drop to #2.

Purdue lost to a crap OSU team last Sunday and now we have the same number of losses. we should only drop to #2 behind Houston