UConn -13.5 | The Boneyard

UConn -13.5

Blue Blood

Blue Blood

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Per FanDuel higher than Kenpom which has it at 10 have to think Hurley's GOT tweet is the culprit here
 
That is way, way, way too high.

Yes, we could win by 20. Yes, we've taken care of business -- home and road -- against this kind of middle-of-the-pack caliber of BE team. But this is a Nova team fighting for its life, who have won 3 in a row, and whose last truly bad loss (and only loss by 14 or more) was a month ago.

I could buy a line of -9 or so, but -13.5 is a ton.

Edit, to elaborate on this, Nova's last 7 games are:
  • Loss by 7 at Butler
  • Loss by 5 vs. Marquette
  • Win by 18 vs. PC
  • Loss by 3 at Xavier
  • Win by 26 vs. SH
  • Win by 16 at GT
  • Win by 10 vs. Butler

Yes, they haven't beaten any non-scrub teams on the road and they haven't beaten a truly elite team anywhere since, arguably, Creighton, a few months ago (who were not playing well at the time), but they have been competitive in these games.
 
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I'm in Tennessee this weekend and was looking forward to betting on the huskies. So much for that!
 
Tenspro2002 said:
That is way, way, way too high.

Yes, we could win by 20. Yes, we've taken care of business -- home and road -- against this kind of middle-of-the-pack caliber of BE team. But this is a Nova team fighting for its life, who have won 3 in a row, and whose last truly bad loss (and only loss by 14 or more) was a month ago.

I could buy a line of -9 or so, but -13.5 is a ton.

Edit, to elaborate on this, Nova's last 7 games are:
  • Loss by 7 at Butler
  • Loss by 5 vs. Marquette
  • Win by 18 vs. PC
  • Loss by 3 at Xavier
  • Win by 26 vs. SH
  • Win by 16 at GT
  • Win by 10 vs. Butler

Yes, they haven't beaten any non-scrub teams on the road and they haven't beaten a truly elite team anywhere since, arguably, Creighton, a few months ago (who were not playing well at the time), but they have been competitive in these games.
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Seems about right to me, we're going to kick their arses.
 
Tenspro2002 said:
That is way, way, way too high.

Yes, we could win by 20. Yes, we've taken care of business -- home and road -- against this kind of middle-of-the-pack caliber of BE team. But this is a Nova team fighting for its life, who have won 3 in a row, and whose last truly bad loss (and only loss by 14 or more) was a month ago.

I could buy a line of -9 or so, but -13.5 is a ton.

Edit, to elaborate on this, Nova's last 7 games are:
  • Loss by 7 at Butler
  • Loss by 5 vs. Marquette
  • Win by 18 vs. PC
  • Loss by 3 at Xavier
  • Win by 26 vs. SH
  • Win by 16 at GT
  • Win by 10 vs. Butler

Yes, they haven't beaten any non-scrub teams on the road and they haven't beaten a truly elite team anywhere since, arguably, Creighton, a few months ago (who were not playing well at the time), but they have been competitive in these games.
Expand ...
UConn coming off a 19pt loss, RIPs jersey getting retired, 8pm tip at Gampel the place is going to be on fire!! Dan Hurley vs Kyle Neptune. Come on! Give me the Huskies!!
 
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NotADime89 said:
UConn coming off a 19pt loss, RIPs jersey getting retired, 8pm tip at Gampel the place is going to be on fire!! Dan Hurley vs Kyle Neptune. Come on! Give me the Huskies!!
Expand ...
I hope you're right that we win in a blowout, but I think it's much more likely this game is played in the 6-12 point range, they end up fouling at the end, and we win by 10.
 
Tenspro2002 said:
That is way, way, way too high.

Yes, we could win by 20. Yes, we've taken care of business -- home and road -- against this kind of middle-of-the-pack caliber of BE team. But this is a Nova team fighting for its life, who have won 3 in a row, and whose last truly bad loss (and only loss by 14 or more) was a month ago.

I could buy a line of -9 or so, but -13.5 is a ton.

Edit, to elaborate on this, Nova's last 7 games are:
  • Loss by 7 at Butler
  • Loss by 5 vs. Marquette
  • Win by 18 vs. PC
  • Loss by 3 at Xavier
  • Win by 26 vs. SH
  • Win by 16 at GT
  • Win by 10 vs. Butler

Yes, they haven't beaten any non-scrub teams on the road and they haven't beaten a truly elite team anywhere since, arguably, Creighton, a few months ago (who were not playing well at the time), but they have been competitive in these games.
Expand ...
You conveniently chose a 7 game run because if you picked 8 you’d have to include a 20 point loss @ St John’s :)
 
Tenspro2002 said:
That is way, way, way too high.

Yes, we could win by 20. Yes, we've taken care of business -- home and road -- against this kind of middle-of-the-pack caliber of BE team. But this is a Nova team fighting for its life, who have won 3 in a row, and whose last truly bad loss (and only loss by 14 or more) was a month ago.

I could buy a line of -9 or so, but -13.5 is a ton.

Edit, to elaborate on this, Nova's last 7 games are:
  • Loss by 7 at Butler
  • Loss by 5 vs. Marquette
  • Win by 18 vs. PC
  • Loss by 3 at Xavier
  • Win by 26 vs. SH
  • Win by 16 at GT
  • Win by 10 vs. Butler

Yes, they haven't beaten any non-scrub teams on the road and they haven't beaten a truly elite team anywhere since, arguably, Creighton, a few months ago (who were not playing well at the time), but they have been competitive in these games.
Expand ...
I don't think it's high enough.

Only for sure tournament team you listed was at home vs Marq and they trailed by double digits most the 2h.

You also cut off right before a 20 point loss at SJU and 13 point loss at Marq.

But to be honest, this has less to do with the opponent than the spot. As bad as a spot it was for us at Creighton, that loss was obvious from the second the clock hit 0 against Marq, it's as good of one here. I expect to roll.
 
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Really need to thump Nova to prevent dropping too far in the rankings. Guessing we'll be #3 in the next poll behind Purdue and Houston. I really impressive win and maybe we only drop to #2.
 
UCTitleTown said:
Really need to thump Nova to prevent dropping too far in the rankings. Guessing we'll be #3 in the next poll behind Purdue and Houston. I really impressive win and maybe we only drop to #2.
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Houstons gonna lose to Baylor tomm and we will be 2 at worst
 
JustbrewitMan said:
I like the o131.5 total points much more than the -13.5 line
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JSTEW helps with the “sweat free” cover!
IMG_8241.jpeg
 
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Tenspro2002 said:
Nice suckout, but dear God, don't use a bonus bet at -110 odds. That hurts my brain.
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It was a “bonus bet” I got back from a sweat-free same-game parlay that didn’t come in. Goal is to turn it back into the $5 I lost on the parlay. A -110 bet is about as good as it gets to convert it
 
Scared money doesn’t make money. I took UConn -6.5 1H and UConn -11.5 for the game.

Rip hitting the half court shot should have told everyone how this was going down. And then Rece mentioning we were 0-3 on College GameDays?
 
JustbrewitMan said:
It was a “bonus bet” I got back from a sweat-free same-game parlay that didn’t come in. Goal is to turn it back into the $5 I lost on the parlay. A -110 bet is about as good as it gets to convert it
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I agree with this, you don’t just throw it on some crazy parlay like so many people who wager. The bet really isn’t free, it’s a refund and then you don’t even get the original wager back if you win.
 
JustbrewitMan said:
It was a “bonus bet” I got back from a sweat-free same-game parlay that didn’t come in. Goal is to turn it back into the $5 I lost on the parlay. A -110 bet is about as good as it gets to convert it
Expand ...
It's not a philosophical "might as well put it on a longshot" view, it's just math.

If you have a $5 free bet, if you win you don't get your stake back, only the winnings. So if you put it on something -110, you'll win your $4.50 or whatever half of the time, for an EV of $2.25.

On the other hand, if you put it on a +300 underdog who -- accounting for vig and even being pessimistic -- have a 20% chance of winning, you'll win the $15 20% of the time for an EV of $3.

The fact that you don't get back your original stake makes it higher EV to put bonus bets on underdogs in the +300 to +500 range.
 
JayKoz said:
I agree with this, you don’t just throw it on some crazy parlay like so many people who wager. The bet really isn’t free, it’s a refund and then you don’t even get the original wager back if you win.
Expand ...
You've already lost the original bet! It's a sunk cost.

The goal, once you're left with a bonus bet, is to optimize the EV of the bonus bet itself. See above.
 
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Tenspro2002 said:
You've already lost the original bet! It's a sunk cost.

The goal, once you're left with a bonus bet, is to optimize the EV of the bonus bet itself. See above.
Expand ...
I look at long run rather than just that singular bet, but that’s me.
 
Tenspro2002 said:
It's not a philosophical "might as well put it on a longshot" view, it's just math.

If you have a $5 free bet, if you win you don't get your stake back, only the winnings. So if you put it on something -110, you'll win your $4.50 or whatever half of the time, for an EV of $2.25.

On the other hand, if you put it on a +300 underdog who -- accounting for vig and even being pessimistic -- have a 20% chance of winning, you'll win the $15 20% of the time for an EV of $3.

The fact that you don't get back your original stake makes it higher EV to put bonus bets on underdogs in the +300 to +500 range.
Expand ...
Easier to track EV with 50/50 parlays (at exactly -110 at Fanduel payouts). I did it with $5 bets …

1 team = $2.27
2 team = $3.30
3 team = $3.72
4 team = $3.84
5 team = $3.81
6 team = $3.71

Never thought of it that way, thanks tenspro2002. It’ll be 3 team parlays for me with those bonus bets going forward.

But you did come on a bit strong with the “dear God” line … if we’re talking EV and ROI, posting on the boneyard is NOT very profitable either :).
 
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