UConn (-12.5) | Page 3 | The Boneyard
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UConn (-12.5)

And at some point, if there was enough movement, some people that got early lines on the first side may try to middle/gain arbitrage by betting the other side also, locking in a no-lose other than vig with upside to win both.
Eek, do people really do this? I can't imagine the game lands within a 1-2-point margin window often enough to overcome the vig.

If the line moves that much and I'm on the right side of it, I'm just riding it.
 
Sometimes. There's usually a lot of movement when lines first come out, and then a good amount in the late afternoon before a game. If you think the line will move higher and you like the favorite, you have to bet at open, which then pushes the line higher in a self fulfilling prophecy. When the line begins to move, anyone who wants the other side will wait until it stops moving to get the best possible line in the other direction. And then once it starts moving back, the people on the underdog side need to rush to get in before the number gets worse, once again becoming a self fulfilling prophecy of pressure downwards. And at some point, if there was enough movement, some people that got early lines on the first side may try to middle/gain arbitrage by betting the other side also, locking in a no-lose other than vig with upside to win both.
Anybody know if there's a Kalshi contract on this?
 
Well this went basically exactly how I expected.

Also extracted some easy cash on the live Under (152.5) early second. Whenever we lead by 10 in the second half, the game grinds to a halt.
 
Well this went basically exactly how I expected.

Also extracted some easy cash on the live Under (152.5) early second. Whenever we lead by 10 in the second half, the game grinds to a halt.
Sure it did
 
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Sure it did
lol I said we'd win comfortably, but with a margin in the 9-12 point range. We got a 10 point lead midway through the first and then led by 6-12 points for like 98% of the remaining 30 minutes.

Doesn't get much more "exactly how I expected" than that.
 

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