UConn (-12.5) | Page 2 | The Boneyard

UConn (-12.5)

RuffRuff said:
We’ve become a team that grinds down an opponent like death from a 1000 paper cuts. This is not high octane, it’s a precision based team this year. We defend well but don’t turn over and don’t push, at all. Think about how few breaks we’ve run this year.
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That is true to this point. But we haven't had Solo and Mullins together much. Same with Reibe and Reed. Megatron is close to being fully formed.
 
Mr. French said:
Was just gonna say FD has it up to 15.5, I don’t like betting against the boys so I’ll prob do an alt line within a parlay, 15.5 on the road seems dangerous.
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My apologies we’re at home this game. 15.5 still seems high.
 
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HooperScooper said:
I hope you're not going to be rooting for this guy tonight.

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I remember watching one of the UConn/Pitt BET finals with some friends in the early 00's. One of them is a diehard Lithuanian and UConn alum. The entire game he obviously rooted for UConn but at the same time for Pitt's Donatas Zavackas to do individually well. Really agravating. LOL
 
Not gonna lie, I put a little on Texas +14.5.

I think we win comfortably, but even a game like that is more likely to end up in the 9-12 point margin range than 15+.
 
I just hope there isn’t a hangover from getting home early Wednesday morning. I think B Mullins has a big game tonight.
 
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Mr. French said:
Was just gonna say FD has it up to 15.5, I don’t like betting against the boys so I’ll prob do an alt line within a parlay, 15.5 on the road seems dangerous.
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They’re playing in Hartford.
 
Tenspro2002 said:
Not gonna lie, I put a little on Texas +14.5.
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So what do you do if UConn is up 16 at the 4 minute mark. Start rooting for your team to miss and throw the ball away?
 
Back down to -13.5. So it started at -12.5, then went all the way up to -16.5, and then back down to -13.5 now. I'm not a gambler but do lines usually move this much?
 
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Waquoit said:
So what do you do if UConn is up 16 at the 4 minute mark. Start rooting for your team to miss and throw the ball away?
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The only UConn game I ever bet on was vs BCU in 1997. I took BCU getting 9 points. Up 8 with about 20 seconds to go Ricky Moore goes to the line and I am rooting for him to miss. I still haven’t forgiven myself and never bet again
 
Leebo said:
Kinda crazy how much it moved
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George Costanza Flirt GIF
 
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Waquoit said:
So what do you do if UConn is up 16 at the 4 minute mark. Start rooting for your team to miss and throw the ball away?
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At that kind of margin and time left, with no chance of actually losing the game, you bet.
 
HooperScooper said:
Back down to -13.5. So it started at -12.5, then went all the way up to -16.5, and then back down to -13.5 now. I'm not a gambler but do lines usually move this much?
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Sometimes. There's usually a lot of movement when lines first come out, and then a good amount in the late afternoon before a game. If you think the line will move higher and you like the favorite, you have to bet at open, which then pushes the line higher in a self fulfilling prophecy. When the line begins to move, anyone who wants the other side will wait until it stops moving to get the best possible line in the other direction. And then once it starts moving back, the people on the underdog side need to rush to get in before the number gets worse, once again becoming a self fulfilling prophecy of pressure downwards. And at some point, if there was enough movement, some people that got early lines on the first side may try to middle/gain arbitrage by betting the other side also, locking in a no-lose other than vig with upside to win both.
 
auror said:
And at some point, if there was enough movement, some people that got early lines on the first side may try to middle/gain arbitrage by betting the other side also, locking in a no-lose other than vig with upside to win both.
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Eek, do people really do this? I can't imagine the game lands within a 1-2-point margin window often enough to overcome the vig.

If the line moves that much and I'm on the right side of it, I'm just riding it.
 
auror said:
Sometimes. There's usually a lot of movement when lines first come out, and then a good amount in the late afternoon before a game. If you think the line will move higher and you like the favorite, you have to bet at open, which then pushes the line higher in a self fulfilling prophecy. When the line begins to move, anyone who wants the other side will wait until it stops moving to get the best possible line in the other direction. And then once it starts moving back, the people on the underdog side need to rush to get in before the number gets worse, once again becoming a self fulfilling prophecy of pressure downwards. And at some point, if there was enough movement, some people that got early lines on the first side may try to middle/gain arbitrage by betting the other side also, locking in a no-lose other than vig with upside to win both.
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Anybody know if there's a Kalshi contract on this?
 
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Well this went basically exactly how I expected.

Also extracted some easy cash on the live Under (152.5) early second. Whenever we lead by 10 in the second half, the game grinds to a halt.
 
Tenspro2002 said:
Well this went basically exactly how I expected.

Also extracted some easy cash on the live Under (152.5) early second. Whenever we lead by 10 in the second half, the game grinds to a halt.
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Sure it did
 
uconngb said:
Sure it did
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lol I said we'd win comfortably, but with a margin in the 9-12 point range. We got a 10 point lead midway through the first and then led by 6-12 points for like 98% of the remaining 30 minutes.

Doesn't get much more "exactly how I expected" than that.
 
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