"Uconn has won titles with blah schedules"
Maybe, maybe not. With the exception of the Stewart teams, I remember the Maya/Tina/Renee teams playing awesome teams within their conference.
The game has changed a heck of a lot since then though. Today there are probably at least 6-8 teams on any given year that can win it all....
During the Lobo years there was Tennessee period. For the longest time going into the Taursi years there was Tennessee and Uconn.. (with Notre Dame as a possible third decent team) But for years it was either Uconn or Tennessee really....
Of course someone will probably mention the early 80's with USC and Cheryl Miller but that was way before my time.
Your unspoken null hypothesis is: Geno would have a more successful program if his teams played in “stronger” conferences.
Geno’s program is already the most iconic winningest WCBB program and probably of all-time (during a coach’s tenure). All that in the Big East or AAC.
Your null hypothesis
effectively thus claims UConn could have won
more national championships by being in “stronger” conferences.
Possibly but very improbably. Playing in a “stronger” conference adjacent to the NCAAT would most probably
hinder UConn’s quest for yearly championships (those that they have lost and
those that they have won):
- Playing a cohort of national championship contenders anywhere from 2 to 4 times, gives that cohort-writ-large a blueprint on a how to beat us in the NCAAT;
- The “metamorphosis” that always happens during conference schedule would probably be hindered by having Geno and CD sequentially prepare for a parade of talented teams that frequently play the same style;
- The hindrance is due to Geno and CD having less bandwidth to teach these still-developing players “proper basketball” to play honed intuitive “basketball player” team basketball that can win against any opponent, rather than win the nth iteration of player match-ups against the same types of opponents;
- The hindrance is also due to the increased risk, prior to the NCAAT, of fatigue, aches and pains and injury due to playing in a “stronger” conference;
- The hindrance is also due to the hit on game minutes for the non-corest core players which hinders their development into next years’ core players.
The “soft” conference schedule of less-talented teams playing diverse styles, with the familiarity they have gained over the years, is akin to playing against much better practice players (i.e.
in lock-step with UConn’s farm-system curriculum):
- These teams generally play fundamentally sound diverse offense and strong defense basketball — they have to, to win — which gives UConn “soft dress rehearsals” to a significant number of teams in the NCAAT;
- The weaker teams gives the full roster better reps of some of what they practiced;
- The stronger teams gives core-plus players better reps on their execution and what to do when normal shots are not falling, part of Geno’s stress testing in practice;
- Geno then finds willing strong one-time OOC opponents — presenting unique challenges, the better — to complete Geno’s and CD’s farm-system development;
- This leads to the necessity of a front-loaded gauntlet of early “stronger” opponents which Geno supplements &0 with 2-3 strong opponents in the middle of conference play.
- This gauntlet is very helpful too in that the team’s flaws are detected early in “meaningless” (i.e. not hurting UConn’s auto-bid) games leading to a better growth trajectory by the team;
- In only one instance, as happened this year, with the team failing to secure a seeding commensurate to the team’s perceived strength, does this “stronger” early OOC schedule, as a result of the “weaker” conference schedule, hurt UConn;
- But this year, as years before, UConn entered the NCAAT as a “tip-of-the-iceberg” “operational Death Star” rested team with a more robust farm system development afforded by a “weaker” conference schedule.
Occasionally, UConn loses in the NCAAT with
reasons (biblical injury plague, fatigue due to biblical injury plague, Achilles heels, prior paradigm obstacles to recruiting most-desired bigs, better opposing coach strategy from weaknesses in the roster, some uncharacteristic poor game)
that are now tremendously mitigated by a
top-down quality full roster afforded by the new paradigm of the portal and NIL and 40-minute fast-paced larger rotation mix-match play.
All these leads to
Multiple Power Decades and Geno’s and CD’s yearly ability to attract and recruit their type of players, the lifeblood of a
sustainable program (with subdued basketball-meaningful early attrition), under the old paradigm and moreso under the new paradigm.
&0 These 2-3 OOC opponents during conference play gives Geno and CD all the benefits of a late temperature check on the “metamorphosis” of the team without the downsides of a congested brutalizing counter-productive “stronger” conference schedule enumerated above.
