Transfers - Outbound (8/1/22>7/31/23 cycle)

[Sportsman5]

It’s not just the portal - it’s also NIL and the lack of a governing body as the NCAA has abandoned their post. And this is not a UConn issue, it’s systemic. I was talking to a P5 coach recently and he said “ it’s the Wild West right now”.

The irony is that kids just wanted a slice of the millions that came from their name on the back of a jersey. Now they change jerseys annually.

In time, they’ll have to turn the letter of intent into a 2 year deal. But I’ll let the SEC propose that first; then it’ll be deemed a brilliant counter.

Correct. NIL is huge and will only get larger. We will lose out to the top 10-15 programs due to this.

HOWEVER, UConn has some major boosters that most schools don't have and UConn owns the state of Connecticut which is a very wealthy state overall. So we can out compete most programs in the P5 with NIL deals from local businesses and boosters once we get everything organized. Plus UConn is a brand name that national companies would want to include if they are sponsoring college athletes. Mora knows this and that is one of the reasons he came to UConn.

So we are in a great position overall, but we need to improve the quality of the football program on the field to maximize the NIL benefits. If we win 8-10 games next year, then we will start attracting the attention of the casual fan and everyone in Connecticut will start to take notice.

 

[businesslawyer]

The portal is not designed to help UConn. It's designed to help power five schools. To expect the portal to be a net positive for UConn isn't realistic.

Exactly. The power schools will take any of our players who they think can help them at their level, and discard for us to pick up in return players they don't think can help them at their level. Yes, we may be lucky or good some years and have net positives, but Palatine is correct -- the system is designed to help the rich take from the poor, and as we are a poor it is highly unlikely we will be net winners over a prolonged period of time.

 

[Sportsman5]

Really?

For example, the basketball practice facility that was roughly $40 million to build was funded entirely by private donations. I'm assuming the majority came from a small number of big boosters.

 

[uconndogs]

Couple of points to Palentine and businesslawyer, because I'm pretty much aligned with this thinking. UCONN may pick up some talent in the portal, but the elite (read monied) programs will almost always have their pick.

That said, I think this drives bifurcation of college athletics pretty soon. Imagine being a university president or trustee and somebody comes across with NIL deals (or whatever NIL morphs into) where some 18 year old recruit is going to be a millionaire many times over. Does that really align with the mission of most schools? Does the leadership of most schools want to go into that world of professional athletics? I don't think we're long off from many schools tapping out on this and that includes some of the P5. It's just going to get too costly and too risky.

 

[huskysupporter]

Exactly. The power schools will take any of our players who they think can help them at their level, and discard for us to pick up in return players they don't think can help them at their level. Yes, we may be lucky or good some years and have net positives, but Palatine is correct -- the system is designed to help the rich take from the poor, and as we are a poor it is highly unlikely we will be net winners over a prolonged period of time.

I am scared to see how many talented Huskies enter the portal this year.

 

[blue93]

Exactly. The power schools will take any of our players who they think can help them at their level, and discard for us to pick up in return players they don't think can help them at their level. Yes, we may be lucky or good some years and have net positives, but Palatine is correct -- the system is designed to help the rich take from the poor, and as we are a poor it is highly unlikely we will be net winners over a prolonged period of time.

You may ultimately be right, but it’s a little too soon to say, no? We were net winners in the portal last year with basically nothing but Mora’s name going for us. I’m intrigued by what they can do with some real momentum.

 

[Sportsman5]

Exactly. The power schools will take any of our players who they think can help them at their level, and discard for us to pick up in return players they don't think can help them at their level. Yes, we may be lucky or good some years and have net positives, but Palatine is correct -- the system is designed to help the rich take from the poor, and as we are a poor it is highly unlikely we will be net winners over a prolonged period of time.

The transfer portal rules can help us be competitive enough to get into a P5 conference and build a good fanbase within Connecticut. Then you never know what can happen.

 

[businesslawyer]

You may ultimately be right, but it’s a little too soon to say, no? We were net winners in the portal last year with basically nothing but Mora’s name going for us. I’m intrigued by what they can do with some real momentum.

We did not get an overwhelming amount of help from the portal. We were net winners because we had so little of proven quality to lose.

Obviously we'll see how this will play out, but this came from the power schools. YOu think they did it to help us or to help themselves? And if you think the latter, don't you think the odds are fairly good that they had an idea how to accomplish what they wanted to?

 

[UConnJim]

The portal is not designed to help UConn. It's designed to help power five schools. To expect the portal to be a net positive for UConn isn't realistic.

I disagree. Talent is being spread out in college football more than ever. It all started when the NCAA started reducing scholarship limits from 105 (before 1988) to 95 in 1988 and now to 85 in 1994. If you look at the flow of players in the portal, the majority is P5 to G5, P5 to P5, and G5 to G5 or below. G5 players moving to P5 are a relatively small % of the portal transfers. What the portal has primarily done is to take the P5 backups and moved them to other P5 or G5 schools. Yes, there are top players moving in the portal like Jordan Addison moving from Pitt to USC, but that is not the normal transfer.

 

[Palatine]

I disagree. Talent is being spread out in college football more than ever. It all started when the NCAA started reducing scholarship limits from 105 (before 1988) to 95 in 1988 and now to 85 in 1994. If you look at the flow of players in the portal, the majority is P5 to G5, P5 to P5, and G5 to G5 or below. G5 players moving to P5 are a relatively small % of the portal transfers. What the portal has primarily done is to take the P5 backups and moved them to other P5 or G5 schools. Yes, there are top players moving in the portal like Jordan Addison moving from Pitt to USC, but that is not the normal transfer.

Really? How come the same five or six schools are the in the playoff EVERY SINGLE YEAR?

Is that because the talent is being spread out?

 

[uconndogs]

What the portal has primarily done is to take the P5 backups and moved them to other P5 or G5 schools.

Right....so the best players in the P5 stay with the elite programs. Those same elite programs will have the ability to entice top proven talent away from the lower echelon P5 programs and G5 programs. So explain to me again how this drives parity?

 

[UConnJim]

We did not get an overwhelming amount of help from the portal. We were net winners because we had so little of proven quality to lose.

Obviously we'll see how this will play out, but this came from the power schools. YOu think they did it to help us or to help themselves? And if you think the latter, don't you think the odds are fairly good that they had an idea how to accomplish what they wanted to?

Biz, maybe they didn't put up big stats, they portal kids important for the turnaround. UConn has had a ton of help from the portal (this year and last year). Think about this:

First string on offense: LT, C, FB, (QB to start the year). Second string on offense: 2 WRs, QB

Defense: 3 DL in the rotation, 1 LB starter 1 LB in the rotation, 1 DB in the rotation

Special teams: P and LS

And, Mora was able to build up the OL depth with kids with some experience.

 

[UConnJim]

Really? How come the same five or six schools are the in the playoff EVERY SINGLE YEAR?

Is that because the talent is being spread out?

We were talking about the portal. The main playoff teams, Alabama, Michigan, Georgia, Clemson, and Ohio St., rarely use the portal. They are getting their players from high school.

 

[ktuck911]

The portal is not designed to help UConn. It's designed to help power five schools. To expect the portal to be a net positive for UConn isn't realistic.

In the short term, it could... considering where we've been the last 10 plus years (save this now past season)... It will help get us back to respectability... anything extra is an added bonus/plus...

 

[Palatine]

Biz, maybe they didn't put up big stats, they portal kids important for the turnaround. UConn has had a ton of help from the portal (this year and last year). Think about this:

First string on offense: LT, C, FB, (QB to start the year). Second string on offense: 2 WRs, QB

Defense: 3 DL in the rotation, 1 LB starter 1 LB in the rotation, 1 DB in the rotation

Special teams: P and LS

And, Mora was able to build up the OL depth with kids with some experience.

All true. But this was really the first year we used the portal, coming off a 1-11 season.

Regardless, the portal was NOT built to help middle of the road non-P5 teams. At worse, our 6-6 season was just fatten the calf. At best, we get left alone. We just lost our top tail back. Not very reassuring.

 

[SubbaBub]

Nebraska has a pretty crowded RB room as it stands right now, but the portal and a new coach could change that. Looks like they have 6 RBs on scholarship in addition to a HS recruit coming in. All are mid to high 3*s and only 1 will be a senior next year. Leading rusher this year had 915 yards and he was the #1 JUCO running back. #1 and #2 RB rushers from 2021 are still on the roster.

If Carter is going to Nebraska, he will have tough competition for carries.

I think he'd have a harder time getting carries here than a retooling Nebraska under his current position coach.

He has the speed to play there. I hope he is able to hold up against B1G Ten bodies. He took a beating here.

 

[SubbaBub]

For example, the basketball practice facility that was roughly $40 million to build was funded entirely by private donations. I'm assuming the majority came from a small number of big boosters.

Penn State built it's $90M hockey arena form a single donor. The oil, gas and ag money in the Midwest dwarfs the money in the NE. Hedge fund guys and Fortune 500 CEOs don't ususally give to college FB. The yahoos in the south definitely do.

 

[businesslawyer]

You may ultimately be right, but it’s a little too soon to say, no? We were net winners in the portal last year with basically nothing but Mora’s name going for us. I’m intrigued by what they can do with some real momentum.

When you sit down at a blackjack table in Vegas, it's too soon to know whether you will win money or lose money that night. It' s not, however, too soon to know how the game was designed and whether the odds are in your favor or against you.

 

[YoungFree]

The portal is not designed to help UConn. It's designed to help power five schools. To expect the portal to be a net positive for UConn isn't realistic.

It was this year.........

 

[mikedog10]

When you sit down at a blackjack table in Vegas, it's too soon to know whether you will win money or lose money that night. It' s not, however, too soon to know how the game was designed and whether the odds are in your favor or against you.

Continuing with the analogy… If you plan to sit at that blackjack table without knowing how the game was designed or what your odds are… you are very likely to lose money that night.

Fortunately for us, HCJM understands the game design and our odds better than any coach we’ve ever had. And we are already winning more because of it!

 

[SubbaBub]

We will have at least another year or two before the market determines if these mass transfers are positive expected value for the players or not.

I think most are chasing playing time or a bigger stage. I also think most will find the grass isn't always greener.

Bench guys will go and you won't miss them. Guys with personal issues with the school, coach, weather etc were always going to leave anyway.

Its the guys who could develop and play if they stay are the ones most likely to regret it. Nate was a borderline case. Had lot of early season hype, is recovering from injury and was gifted a unique opportunity to move up. We'll see it that works out for him.

OTOH every P5 backup QB who is about to get recruited over will be available most every year. That will help the have nots.

 

[Sportsman5]

Penn State built it's $90M hockey arena form a single donor. The oil, gas and ag money in the Midwest dwarfs the money in the NE. Hedge fund guys and Fortune 500 CEOs don't ususally give to college FB. The yahoos in the south definitely do.

In a previous post I said that there are 10-15 programs we wont compete with any time soon or maybe ever. Then there is a second group down from those top schools that UConn is in with regards to boosters and fan support.

 

[Husky68]

I see a very potential net plus at the transfer portal for a "good" UConn team. Unlikely that many UConn players will be so good that they can transfer to top 1 to 50 team, especially any with several years of experience left (Carter hurt, covid year).
If a kid wants to transfer to a Rutgers or other lower P5 team or G5 teams then it will probably be player specific reason (again assuming UConn is winning program and coach is Mora or similarly ok).
That is the transfer out scenario.
The transfer in scenario is much better for UConn. Lot of players that wouldn't choose UConn over P5 schools will want out after 1 to 3 years and a good UConn team with its near P5 facilities and hopefully competitive NIL environment should get some good looks. Several O-line transfers in were very young and at least per high school ratings the type of kids that maybe overwhelmed at an Alabama or Michigan as not "their usual studs" but grow into very good players.
I'll trade Carter for the Ball State kid. Let's get another Ivy top notch O-lineman. How about getting "Zach Frazer II".

 

[Dizzy21]

In a previous post I said that there are 10-15 programs we wont compete with any time soon or maybe ever. Then there is a second group down from those top schools that UConn is in with regards to boosters and fan support.

UConn is not even close to a "second group" just outside of top 10-15 for boosters. Donors are dropping huge money on NIL and facilities all over P5 and G5 and below. Hell one donor dropped $60 million on the Binghamton baseball field.

 

[ZooCougar]

Mora, should not close the door on losing him and see if he can convince him to stay. I wouldn't say that for everyone, but definitely for him.

Pretty sure that discussion happened already.