Tourney - Round 2

[Bone Dog]

Turban time
Here’s my guesses for the coming round.

Elite Eight: UCLA, SC, UConn, Duke, K St, TCU, NC St, Tennessee.

The upsets are chancey, especially TCU over ND and Tennessee over Texas.

K St over USC is very cloudy in my crystal ball, probably because of the emotional turmoil currently roiling a young team.

NC St over LSU will depend mainly on Trigger stepping up in a big way. The guard play on each squad is probably a wash.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Okay, here's something crazy. Not that I'm saying it will happen, but what if TVO totally goes off for USC? She had at least one 40 point game and another 30 point game during her career at Oregon St. She has the ability to put up big scoring numbers, she just hasn't done it at all this year.

 

[cancontent]

Okay, here's something crazy. Not that I'm saying it will happen, but what if TVO totally goes off for USC? She had at least one 40 point game and another 30 point game during her career at Oregon St. She has the ability to put up big scoring numbers, she just hasn't done it at all this year.

1). It's March Madness. Nothing is crazy as it can be possible.

2). I've been wondering that as well. As the offence is no longer centred around Watkins, it's very possible.

3). I'm going to be focused on Howell and Heickl today against KSU's guards. They could be another wildcard for tomorrow's game.

 

[oldude]

Okay, here's something crazy. Not that I'm saying it will happen, but what if TVO totally goes off for USC? She had at least one 40 point game and another 30 point game during her career at Oregon St. She has the ability to put up big scoring numbers, she just hasn't done it at all this year.

One of the most impressive things about USC in the MS St game, after JuJu went down, is how the entire team responded. MS St is not a great team, but USC still put a serious beat down on them without their superstar in the lineup.

TVO, Iriafen, Marshall and a very talented group of freshmen are extremely capable. The challenge for Coach Gottlieb, her staff and the team is to reorient their offense on the fly to put all those talented players in position to step up in JuJu’s absence.

 

[DallasDomer]

Turban time
Here’s my guesses for the coming round.

Elite Eight: UCLA, SC, UConn, Duke, K St, TCU, NC St, Tennessee.

The upsets are chancey, especially TCU over ND and Tennessee over Texas.

K St over USC is very cloudy in my crystal ball, probably because of the emotional turmoil currently roiling a young team.

NC St over LSU will depend mainly on Trigger stepping up in a big way. The guard play on each squad is probably a wash.

I hadn't gone into Saturday games but since I haven't been wrong yet because no games have been played yet I'll continue.

ND has Westbeld and Karlen healthy neither of which played in the last TCU matchup. This will be a revenge game and it won't be close. ND by 15+.

Texas vs Tennessee is tough to call. Tennessee can score points but Texas will win by 7-10.

Now for my two big upsets. Oklahoma uses their speed and outscored UConn in a 3 point win. Followed by Kansas State scoring in the paint at will to upset a short handed USC team that's missing Watkins.

Elite Eight: UCLA, SC, Oklahoma not UConn,UNC not Duke, K St, ND not TCU, NC St, Texas not Tennessee.

One thing is certain one of us will be wrong several times!

 

[cancontent]

One of the most impressive things about USC in the MS St game, after JuJu went down, is how the entire team responded. MS St is not a great team, but USC still put a serious beat down on them without their superstar in the lineup.

TVO, Iriafen, Marshall and a very talented group of freshmen are extremely capable. The challenge for Coach Gottlieb, her staff and the team is to reorient their offense on the fly to put all those talented players in position to step up in JuJu’s absence.

And USC has some depth at the post position to make it challenging for Lee to get her shots (I think). Not to mention she also has to defend much more athletic competition than what she has faced since coming back from her recent injury.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Kansas State scoring in the paint at will

Why would that happen? Marshall, Iriafen and Akunwafo didn't go anywhere. Lee will certainly meet some resistance. She had a good game against Kentucky, but I wouldn't say she dominated. 16 pts/9 reb on 8-18 shooting. Kentucky has a little more height than USC but I'd say the USC post players are more physical.

 

[oldude]

I hadn't gone into Saturday games but since I haven't been wrong yet because no games have been played yet I'll continue.

ND has Westbeld and Karlen healthy neither of which played in the last TCU matchup. This will be a revenge game and it won't be close. ND by 15+.

Texas vs Tennessee is tough to call. Tennessee can score points but Texas will win by 7-10.

No for my two big upsets. Oklahoma uses their speed and outscored UConn in a 3 point win. Followed by Kansas State scoring in the paint at will to upset a short handed USC team that's missing Watkins.

Elite Eight: UCLA, SC, Oklahoma not UConn,UNC not Duke, K St, ND not TCU, NC St, Texas not Tennessee.

One thing is certain one of us will be wrong several times!

For the record, UConn has more than enough speed to stay with OK. The challenge for the Huskies will be to hold their own on the boards. The challenge for a turnover prone OK will be to take care of the ball against UConn’s relentless defensive effort. It should be an interesting game.

 

[Bone Dog]

And USC has some depth at the post position to make it challenging for Lee to get her shots (I think). Not to mention she also has to defend much more athletic competition than what she has faced since coming back from her recent injury.

I hear you about USC's athleticism. but I think they will have to rely on a young core. They rose to the occasion last game but that may have been partly the effects of a tide of emotions buoying them up. That will have subsided in the coming game. I expect Kiki and Rayah will be able to sustain their previous effort, and I also expect TVO to disappoint. K St will have no such problems, being a mainly senior squad that has waited for their shot for a while now.

 

[cancontent]

I hear you about USC's athleticism. but I think they will have to rely on a young core. They rose to the occasion last game but that may have been partly the effects of a tide of emotions buoying them up. That will have subsided in the coming game. I expect Kiki and Rayah will be able to sustain their previous effort, and I also expect TVO to disappoint. K St will have no such problems, being a mainly senior squad that has waited for their shot for a while now.

That's why I said Howell and Heickl were wildcards in an earlier post. We know Smith has handled the PG role well as a starter in her freshman season. Her fellow 2024 mates, Howell and Heickl, have come up big in some games while fading into the background in others.

 

[DallasDomer]

Why would that happen? Marshall, Iriafen and Akunwafo didn't go anywhere. Lee will certainly meet some resistance. She had a good game against Kentucky, but I wouldn't say she dominated. 16 pts/9 reb on 8-18 shooting. Kentucky has a little more height than USC but I'd say the USC post players are more physical.

My opinion comes from watching several games and seeing the cutters get into the low paint and make layup after layup. I didn't do any statistical analysis.

 

[DallasDomer]

For the record, UConn has more than enough speed to stay with OK. The challenge for the Huskies will be to hold their own on the boards. The challenge for a turnover prone OK will be to take care of the ball against UConn’s relentless defensive effort. It should be an interesting game.

Maybe but the record I'm going from is that Oklahoma is #5 in scoring offense at 85.4 points per game and UConn is #9 with 81.

The difference in turnovers per game between UConn and Oklahoma is 5 which imo will be made up by their scoring.

I am impressed with the adjectives used to describe UConn's "relentless defensive effort". If that is accurate then I'm wrong.

NCAA College Women's Basketball DI current team Stats | NCAA.com

Discover the current NCAA Division I Women's Basketball leaders in every stats category, as well as historic leaders.

www.ncaa.com

 

[oldude]

Maybe but the record I'm going from is that Oklahoma is #5 in scoring offense at 85.4 points per game and UConn is #9 with 81.

The difference in turnovers per game between UConn and Oklahoma is 5 which imo will be made up by their scoring.

I am impressed with the adjectives used to describe UConn's "relentless defensive effort". If that is accurate then I'm wrong.

NCAA College Women's Basketball DI current team Stats | NCAA.com

Discover the current NCAA Division I Women's Basketball leaders in every stats category, as well as historic leaders.

www.ncaa.com

The turnover difference per game is 8. UConn is 3rd in the nation in fewest turnovers committed per game at 10+. OK is somewhere down the list at 18+. Both teams can score. But UConn leads the nation in scoring margin at 30.2. OK is 18th at 16.9. The Huskies also lead in Shooting percentage, A/TO ratio and scoring defense. OK is 2nd in the nation in rebounding margin at +13 per game.

Obviously, OK played a tougher conference schedule than UConn. As for per game scoring, that is often the result of the team you’re playing. There are a lot more teams in the SEC that play up tempo basketball than in the BE, where few teams want to get into a track meet with UConn. As I said, it should be an interesting game.

 

[GamecockFam]

Y'all have more confidence in Oklahoma than I do. They're a good team but they struggle against top 10 type competition and they don't use Beers to her fullest extent. I'm feeling a UConn blowout is in the works -- not a big one but I would be shocked if Oklahoma keeps it to a single digit score differential.

 

[nwhoopfan]

My opinion comes from watching several games and seeing the cutters get into the low paint and make layup after layup. I didn't do any statistical analysis.

Allowing 58.8 ppg. Seems like solid defense to me.

 

[DallasDomer]

The turnover difference per game is 8. UConn is 3rd in the nation in fewest turnovers committed per game at 10+. OK is somewhere down the list at 18+. Both teams can score. But UConn leads the nation in scoring margin at 30.2. OK is 18th at 16.9. The Huskies also lead in Shooting percentage, A/TO ratio and scoring defense. OK is 2nd in the nation in rebounding margin at +13 per game.

Obviously, OK played a tougher conference schedule than UConn. As for per game scoring, that is often the result of the team you’re playing. There are a lot more teams in the SEC that play up tempo basketball than in the BE, where few teams want to get into a track meet with UConn. As I said, it should be an interesting game.

My mistake I pulled Oklahoma State turnovers, but in the Iowa game Oklahoma had 15 turnovers. I don't know if that's a trend or an outlier.

I didn't want to get into insulting the Big East but since you did that's one of the reasons I'm not as impressed with UConn stats. Playing 21 games in the BE plus several others like BU, USF, Harvard.... will tend to improve their numbers. No idea how much or if it's meaningful but it's something I remember.

 

[oldude]

My mistake I pulled Oklahoma State turnovers, but in the Iowa game Oklahoma has 15 turnovers. I don't know if that's a trend or an outlier.

I didn't want to get into insulting the Big East but since you did that's one of the reasons I'm not as impressed with UConn stats. Playing 21 games in the BE plus several others like BU, USF, Harvard.... will tend to improve their numbers. No idea how much or if it's meaningful but it's something I remember.

I’m not all that big on comparison scores. But it’s hard to ignore that OK got thumped by SC twice, while UConn beat the Gamecocks in Columbia by 29. Food for thought.

 

[packwrap]

I hear you about USC's athleticism. but I think they will have to rely on a young core. They rose to the occasion last game but that may have been partly the effects of a tide of emotions buoying them up.

I agree with this. Biggest criticism over 2 years of USC is they are too dependent on JuJu. Now they lose JuJu and suddenly everyone else will step up?

Would UCLA no Betts, LSU no Morrow, UConn No Paige, ND no Hidalgo, TX no Booker all still be favored?

It's a great media story, however, if USC wins here. I followed my brain here though instead of my heart, and picked LSU.

 

[Bone Dog]

Allowing 58.8 ppg. Seems like solid defense to me.

I’d limit the comparison to comparable opponents, and as @oldude pointed put, it ne common opponent leaps off the page. The BE may be weaker than the power4 conferences. But the teams in the BE aren’t cupcakes either. They play with good intensity and are well coached. Regardless of my eyeball assessment of conferences, the games against SC are an objective fact and OU was not competitive against them. What’s more, they’re one of the handful of teams that plays defense with an intensity similar to UConn’s. And the player matchups against UConn will be similar to the ones against SC.

Could OU pull off an upset? Of course they can. But they’ll have to play way above their heads to do it. And not just Beers. Verhulst Williams and the Vann sisters will have to play the game of their lives.

 

[BRS24]

I agree with this. Biggest criticism over 2 years of USC is they are too dependent on JuJu. Now they lose JuJu and suddenly everyone else will step up?

Would UCLA no Betts, LSU no Morrow, UConn No Paige, ND no Hidalgo, TX no Booker all still be favored?

It's a great media story, however, if USC wins here. I followed my brain here though instead of my heart, and picked LSU.

I'm trying not to think about all the injuries that have affected teams in the past, however there's sometimes a surge right afterwards, players are focused on that game, however the following games are where issues prop up. Unlike the regular season, there's no long runway for USC to reconfigure game plans, work thru hiccups, before the regional games. Maybe.

 

[nwhoopfan]

I’d limit the comparison to comparable opponents, and as @oldude pointed put, it ne common opponent leaps off the page. The BE may be weaker than the power4 conferences. But the teams in the BE aren’t cupcakes either. They play with good intensity and are well coached. Regardless of my eyeball assessment of conferences, the games against SC are an objective fact and OU was not competitive against them. What’s more, they’re one of the handful of teams that plays defense with an intensity similar to UConn’s. And the player matchups against UConn will be similar to the ones against SC.

Could OU pull off an upset? Of course they can. But they’ll have to play way above their heads to do it. And not just Beers. Verhulst Williams and the Vann sisters will have to play the game of their lives.

I think we got wires crossed. I was talking about USC, not UConn or Oklahoma.

 

[Vowelguy]

I’m not all that big on comparison scores. But it’s hard to ignore that OK got thumped by SC twice, while UConn beat the Gamecocks in Columbia by 29. Food for thought.

And Okla beat Tenn, while UConn lost.

 

[oldude]

And Okla beat Tenn, while UConn lost.

As I said, I’m not all that big on comparison scores.

 

[DallasDomer]

What high school team was playing Duke just now? That couldn't have been UNC could it?

I'm 0-1 now.

 

[FanInNC]

What a game! Look at these shooting splits for the teams:

UNC 28% FG 27% 3PT 50% FT

Duke 31% FG 21% 3PT 43% FT

Duke didnt score for nearly 6 minutes to start the game. UNC went over 10 minutes without a made FG between the end of the 1st and mid 2nd. Another 7 minute drought between the 3rd and 4th. That's unreal to me. Duke also finished the game without scoring for the final 4 minutes and 25 seconds.

If Wes Moore were Duke's coach he'd be saying about the win, "It's and ugly baby, but it's our baby".