Torvik Numbers since 1/17/2024 (Clingan's Return)

[HuskyWarrior611]

Can't look at raw stats, UConn plays much slower than Alabama so the total numbers are always going to be lower. We're 13th in offensive rebounding percentage, we are an elite offensive rebounding team

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These numbers I can handle. It’s when we start talking about East European named metrics and adjustments is when my brain feels like it’ll explode.

 

[navery12]

They aren’t far behind on the OBoards at mid. 20s IIRC.

They're 23rd, but we're a much better defensive rebounding team than Alabama so they won't have as big of an advantage there

 

[Tenspro2002]

Can't look at raw stats, UConn plays much slower than Alabama so the total numbers are always going to be lower. We're 13th in offensive rebounding percentage, we are an elite offensive rebounding team

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So they don't cause turnovers, get defensive rebounds, or prevent teams from getting to the line. What could go wrong?

I'd be interested in seeing the other side of this (when Alabama has the ball). Their pace is ridiculously fast, but looks like it must be on offense rather than defense.

 

[ibleedhuskyblue]

Alabama was in a dogfight with Grand Canyon.

I hate being this confident, but Alabama is in for a world of hurt. It's going to be a mirror image of what would happen on the football field.

We've had a handful of posters who are overly cautious before every game in the tourney. At this point, there's no reason to expect those people to change, and no reason that they should change. It's probably just part of the process now, like 8 M&M's, or dragon underwear.

There was angst about that kid on Stetson who scored a bunch a game before ours.
We had no chance to guard Buie, he was gonna get 35 at least.
LeDee was going to foul out DC before the under 12 of the 1st half.
Illinois was gonna score 105 against us. We just can't keep up.
Bama will break the record for 3's in a single game. Don't even bother watching.

I think there's about 10 people here who are a little too angsty, but it seems all just part of Boneyard life.

 

[navery12]

So they don't cause turnovers, get defensive rebounds, or prevent teams from getting to the line. What could go wrong?

I'd be interested in seeing the other side of this (when Alabama has the ball). Their pace is ridiculously fast, but looks like it must be on offense rather than defense.

Here's the full screenshot of when UConn has the ball and same for Alabama

 

[Tenspro2002]

Here's the full screenshot of when UConn has the ball and same for Alabama



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14.5 seconds per possession on offense, my goodness.

Other takeaways:

• Their 2-point defense is much weaker than their 3-point defense. We should feast, not only on Clingan post-ups, but Newton or Castle drives, Spencer snaking into the lane by himself or on PnR, and Karaban cuts to the rim.
• Surprising that their offensive rebounding is actually pretty good, and our defensive rebound is only so-so
• It's also bizarre that they are elite at 2-point shooting, but also get blocked a ton. Clingan might get 8 blocks again. Which side of this wins out will be one part of the equation, with the other side of course being their 3-point shooting.

 

[asteinindc]

have to imagine that their offensive rebounding being that good is because they're jacking threes and getting a lot of long rebounds. I'm not sure how you counter that other than religiously focus on boxing out.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

I was responding to your post about their size and them being much longer in the paint on their drives than Illinois. I believe they'll get destroyed by Clingan if they look to attack in the paint.

Now you're talking about them shooting threes and long rebounds. That's what I was trying to explain with my initial post. Bama is going to be chucking threes like crazy because that's the only chance they have.

I never said anything about them shooting 3s. Please read what I actually said.

 

[Tenspro2002]

have to imagine that their offensive rebounding being that good is because they're jacking threes and getting a lot of long rebounds. I'm not sure how you counter that other than religiously focus on boxing out.

That would make a lot of sense, and a high O-Reb rate would also make sense if they're getting out in transition a lot and getting their own misses of fast-break layups or 3s. I wonder if that would be mitigated by slowing the game down and keep them in halfcourt.

 

[ctbro1999]

• It's also bizarre that they are elite at 2-point shooting, but also get blocked a ton. Clingan might get 8 blocks again. Which side of this wins out will be one part of the equation, with the other side of course being their 3-point shooting.

It makes sense their 2pt% is that high because their offense shuns mid-range shots (pretty much it's shoot a 3 or in-close 2 or don't bother), so most of their 2 pt attempts will be coming from the paint. But that's a problem for them when Cling Kong is patrolling the lane.

They're gonna need to hit 15+ 3's to even have a chance against us.

 

[asteinindc]

I'd do a token 3/4 press not designed to steal the ball but to elongate their possessions. and then have all our guys crash the boards. you give up our own fast breaks but you minimize the number of long rebounds, which lead to kick outs for more threes.

 

[superjohn]

I never said anything about them shooting 3s. Please read what I actually said.

You were talking about it's about them rebounding their attempts. I assumed you were talking about them getting offensive rebounds off of their zillion three point attempts because that's what they do.

I have no clue what you're talking about in this thread then. I tried

 

[Tenspro2002]

I'd do a token 3/4 press not designed to steal the ball but to elongate their possessions. and then have all our guys crash the boards. you give up our own fast breaks but you minimize the number of long rebounds, which lead to kick outs for more threes.

Eh, the danger is not that their possessions are too short, but that our guys are out of position.

The best way to stay in position is to play solid halfcourt defense.

 

[asteinindc]

Eh, the danger is not that their possessions are too short, but that our guys are out of position.

The best way to stay in position is to play solid halfcourt defense.

smarter!

i would love to just limit the number of threes they put up and offensive rebounds they get, both of which would give them even less of a margin for error.

 

[UConnRock]

Oats is going to test to see if the UConn 3 point drought is going to continue. He will double Clingan and hope that Newton, Spencer, and Karaban remain cold. Cold three point shooting impacts the effectiveness of screens, backdoors and cuts to the basket. UConn needs to get back on track from beyond the arc.

 

[Sibeerian]

Is Oats the kind of coach where you worry about him having a week to put together a game plan?

 

[AdamaNation]

This is the only thing that worries me…Alabama will just shoot 50 3s and see what happens. It’s their whole philosophy, they do NOT shoot mid range. If they can’t get layups over DC, they’re just gonna chuck.

May be a great game for Samson with run out dunks off if long rebounds

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

You were talking about it's about them rebounding their attempts. I assumed you were talking about them getting offensive rebounds off of their zillion three point attempts because that's what they do.

I have no clue what you're talking about in this thread then. I tried

Yes after you said their bigs driving into Clingan is a bad strategy. Maybe it’s too much to think those are the attempts I’m talking about.

I understand the shoot 3s at a high clip. If I’m them that wouldn’t be my strategy for Saturday. I’d drive hard into Clingan and crash the boards even harder while he’s out the play.

Jacking up 50 3s and completely avoiding the paint would be a recipe for disaster for them. One I hope they follow.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Oats is going to test to see if the UConn 3 point drought is going to continue. He will double Clingan and hope that Newton, Spencer, and Karaban remain cold. Cold three point shooting impacts the effectiveness of screens, backdoors and cuts to the basket. UConn needs to get back on track from beyond the arc.

The third guy who was on F68 with Dauster and Goodman basically said they should pack the paint and hope we stay cold shooting. I have no idea if Alabama has a zone defense in their repertoire, but I would not be surprised to see some kind of junk D at that end.

 

[Stinger92860]

So we're #3 in offense and #3 in defense. Which makes us #3 overall.

I'm very good at math.

That‘s incorrect. The #1 and #2 teams are not the same teams. We would be #1 overall.

 

[superjohn]

Yes after you said their bigs driving into Clingan is a bad strategy. Maybe it’s too much to think those are the attempts I’m talking about.

I understand the shoot 3s at a high clip. If I’m them that wouldn’t be my strategy for Saturday. I’d drive hard into Clingan and crash the boards even harder while he’s out the play.

Jacking up 50 3s and completely avoiding the paint would be a recipe for disaster for them. One I hope they follow.

Jacking up threes is the only shot they've got, it's what they do. They're worse at driving and in the paint than Illinois, they're guaranteed to get routed if they try to do what Illinois tried to do.

 

[tzznandrew]

Is Oats the kind of coach where you worry about him having a week to put together a game plan?

Not really...

 

[freshler40]

I’m with you - if UConn plays their B game they win, probably by 10-15.

But that 3 pointer can be an equalizer, especially when they hunt those shots. They’re not changing philosophies, they want to gun.

Well, it's a fresh new court with strange surroundings. This can throw off a three-point shooting team. We haven't relied upon the three in some time. It if show up for us all the better. Do we have a better offensive mix? We'll see and hope that that is the case.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

Oats is going to test to see if the UConn 3 point drought is going to continue. He will double Clingan and hope that Newton, Spencer, and Karaban remain cold. Cold three point shooting impacts the effectiveness of screens, backdoors and cuts to the basket. UConn needs to get back on track from beyond the arc.

I am truly curious what the defensive game plan is for Oats. Doubling Clingan is a really dangerous move. Maybe they try to double off Castle there but then I think Hurley just counters with the Andre dunker game plan from last year. Maybe he does gamble and just count on the shooters being cold, but if the Bama defenders have to close out hard, our ball movement and ability for the guards to get into the lane is going to lead to wide open looks all over, including at the basket.

I haven’t watched them a ton but I don’t remember seeing a zone or some other junk defense from them. Feels like an awful idea for a team that is already pretty terrible defensively.

 

[DRBackup]

Alabama is also 27th in the country in offensive rebounding which will be something to look out for.

I could for sure see the plan being to attack Clingan and then crash the glass while he’s away since they can have two guys who are 6’10 and above on the court at all times. Karaban is going to have to step up BIG.

Illinois had big guards but was relatively small in the post. Alabama is the opposite, at least length wise.

I suspect that's at least partly due to long rebounds off all the threes they shoot.