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Illinois did play the 5th toughest defensive SoS, but Alabama is not too far behind at 17th, which only accounts for about a point.
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So these advanced numbers REALLY don’t make sense.
There’s no way this Alabama offense is not better than Illinois. Defense, that’s another story.
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Interesting, would not have guessed their defensive SoS was close to that high.
One way to control the number of threes they take (thus reducing variance) is by controlling the tempo of the game, which is a bi-product of UConn's offense anyway. Not that UConn won't run, but UConn doesn't rush the half-court offense. It will be interesting to see if they try to slow UConn's offense down (as some teams have tried by pressing to slow the start of UConn's halfcourt dance), or if they try to speed UConn up (which I think maybe only SJU and Marquette have done before).
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Alabama is also 27th in the country in offensive rebounding which will be something to look out for.
I could for sure see the plan being to attack Clingan and then crash the glass while he’s away since they can have two guys who are 6’10 and above on the court at all times. Karaban is going to have to step up BIG.
Illinois had big guards but was relatively small in the post. Alabama is the opposite, at least length wise.
I could for sure see the plan being to attack Clingan and then crash the glass while he’s away since they can have two guys who are 6’10 and above on the court at all times. Karaban is going to have to step up BIG.
Illinois had big guards but was relatively small in the post. Alabama is the opposite, at least length wise.
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I think that final score may be close to right. May win by even more.
They got beat by 20 by Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida. When it goes south for them, it goes south. They don't have the fortitude to withstand runs. They jumped out to a lead against Purdue and when Purdue finally caught them it was over.
And it's going to go south.
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Have to look at per possession stats because Alabama plays much faster than Illinois on offense (3rd fastest vs 168th). Alabama is still better but it's a lot closer, 1.18 points per possession versus 1.15 for Illinois. But Alabama is above Illinois anyway in offensive efficiencyI don’t know what the advanced numbers are calculating, but Alabama has the #12 offense in 2P FG%, #2 in 3P made, #24 in 3P FG%, 8th in FTs made, and 1st in points.
How is that offense not better than the one who isn’t even top 20 in anything besides points (11th)?
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It's because of 3s. But our guards are exceptional rebounders and all have height advantages.
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More I look into this, that’s actually how we were beaten the last time we had a defensive juggernaut in the middle (Thabeet).
Michigan State had 16 offensive rebounds that game. Which was almost double that of anyone else in the tournament. If Karaban comes out the gate not holding his own against Nelson, this might actually be a good game for double bigs.
In general, Alabama is an even better rebounding team than us (18th in the country to our 36th).
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Pringle is 6'9, Walters is 6'10 198 lbs.
If any of their "bigs" try and take it in the paint against Clingan it will be the same results Illinois had.
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Yeah I’m really looking at the efficiency in which they make their shots.
They take an absurd amount for sure. I hope they stick with that for this game. We have advantage with height at guard, but their 4s are the X factors here because of their length.
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It’s not about them making their attempts, it’s much easier to rebound layups once the center (Clingan) is preoccupied.
ESPN lists Pringle at 6’10 which is where I got that from. Could be wrong.
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Who are you putting Clingan on if Karaban is guarding Nelson?
I'm not worried about rebounding, we're going to kill them on the offensive boards. We're 13th in offensive rebounding and they're 272nd in defensive rebounding. And the gap on defense is much smaller, Alabama is 23rd in offensive rebounding and we're 81st, but our guards are great rebounders and should limit the long rebounds off 3's
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Pringle started for them last game and doesn’t attempt 3s from my box score look.
Where did you see 13th? We’re in the 70s according to this.
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Don’t think we lose this (my money literally says otherwise), that’s just what I’m worried with as is.
I’m not too worried about us running guys off the 3 point line.
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Speaking of the metrics, while we dissect our opponents' weaknesses and capabilities, let's just briefly marvel at the fact that we are now currently 4 points in KenPom adjusted total efficiency ahead of the field, which is ludicrous.
In recent memory, only 2018 Villanova accomplished this feat, and our absolute efficiency margin is surpassed only by 2021 Gonzaga and 2015 Kentucky in the last 10 years.
In recent memory, only 2018 Villanova accomplished this feat, and our absolute efficiency margin is surpassed only by 2021 Gonzaga and 2015 Kentucky in the last 10 years.
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I agree that, if offered, I would take like a 5:1 bet on UConn -24.5. The wheels can very easily fall off for Alabama like they did for Illinois if shots aren't falling (for Bama it would be at the 3-point line, for Illinois it was at the rim).
But the fact that a historic blowout is plausible does not mean that losing is implausible.
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Can't look at raw stats, UConn plays much slower than Alabama so the total numbers are always going to be lower. We're 13th in offensive rebounding percentage, we are an elite offensive rebounding teamPringle started for them last game and doesn’t attempt 3s from my box score look.
Where did you see 13th? We’re in the 70s according to this.
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Don’t think we lose this (my money literally says otherwise), that’s just what I’m worried with as is.
I’m not too worried about us running guys off the 3 point line.
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I was responding to your post about their size and them being much longer in the paint on their drives than Illinois. I believe they'll get destroyed by Clingan if they look to attack in the paint.
Now you're talking about them shooting threes and long rebounds. That's what I was trying to explain with my initial post. Bama is going to be chucking threes like crazy because that's the only chance they have.
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Bet365 lets you bet Bama points down to 57.5 for +1200 fwiw.
They aren’t far behind on the OBoards at mid. 20s IIRC.
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These numbers I can handle. It’s when we start talking about East European named metrics and adjustments is when my brain feels like it’ll explode.
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So they don't cause turnovers, get defensive rebounds, or prevent teams from getting to the line. What could go wrong?
I'd be interested in seeing the other side of this (when Alabama has the ball). Their pace is ridiculously fast, but looks like it must be on offense rather than defense.
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We've had a handful of posters who are overly cautious before every game in the tourney. At this point, there's no reason to expect those people to change, and no reason that they should change. It's probably just part of the process now, like 8 M&M's, or dragon underwear.
There was angst about that kid on Stetson who scored a bunch a game before ours.
We had no chance to guard Buie, he was gonna get 35 at least.
LeDee was going to foul out DC before the under 12 of the 1st half.
Illinois was gonna score 105 against us. We just can't keep up.
Bama will break the record for 3's in a single game. Don't even bother watching.
I think there's about 10 people here who are a little too angsty, but it seems all just part of Boneyard life.
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14.5 seconds per possession on offense, my goodness.
Other takeaways:
- Their 2-point defense is much weaker than their 3-point defense. We should feast, not only on Clingan post-ups, but Newton or Castle drives, Spencer snaking into the lane by himself or on PnR, and Karaban cuts to the rim.
- Surprising that their offensive rebounding is actually pretty good, and our defensive rebound is only so-so
- It's also bizarre that they are elite at 2-point shooting, but also get blocked a ton. Clingan might get 8 blocks again. Which side of this wins out will be one part of the equation, with the other side of course being their 3-point shooting.
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have to imagine that their offensive rebounding being that good is because they're jacking threes and getting a lot of long rebounds. I'm not sure how you counter that other than religiously focus on boxing out.
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I never said anything about them shooting 3s. Please read what I actually said.
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That would make a lot of sense, and a high O-Reb rate would also make sense if they're getting out in transition a lot and getting their own misses of fast-break layups or 3s. I wonder if that would be mitigated by slowing the game down and keep them in halfcourt.
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It makes sense their 2pt% is that high because their offense shuns mid-range shots (pretty much it's shoot a 3 or in-close 2 or don't bother), so most of their 2 pt attempts will be coming from the paint. But that's a problem for them when Cling Kong is patrolling the lane.
They're gonna need to hit 15+ 3's to even have a chance against us.
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