Throw Back Monday - Revisiting AAC vs. C7 Debate

[metsfan2323]

The only way his argument makes sense is to pull UConn out of the equation.

Yeah, Nelson is disappointed that his prediction that the AAC would (paraphrasing) "destroy UCONN basketball so we better get out quick" could not be more wrong. He's grasping at straws and for some reason seems to be rooting against our current conference. He would prefer to be right than have this league do well.

Right now the AAC has as many ranked teams as the Big East, Pac 12, and SEC combined so according to Nelson it's time to set the house on fire. The rest of us can enjoy UCONN/Memphis tomorrow.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

This is one of the most wrong posts I have seen in a while. It is wrong mathematically, and next year we are going to learn just how wrong this is when we replace Louisville and a slug with three slugs that will have RPI's between 150 and 225.

The SEC is probably better top to bottom than the AAC too. But nobody will be saying that on Selection Sunday. They'll be saying that the SEC is a lousy, 2-3 bid league this year. Again, the fact that Mississippi State is better than Houston isn't going to matter to anyone. Except you I guess.

I'm sure your overall point is that the terrible teams at the bottom of the conference are going to doom the good teams at the top of the conference. Well guess what, it didn't happen this year. Unless something crazy happens down the stretch, the 5 good AAC teams are making the tournament.

 

[breezy]

Yeah, Nelson is disappointed that his prediction that the AAC would (paraphrasing) "destroy UCONN basketball so we better get out quick" could not be more wrong. He's grasping at straws and for some reason seems to be rooting against our current conference. He would prefer to be right than have this league do well.

Right now the AAC has as many ranked teams as the Big East, Pac 12, and SEC combined so according to Nelson it's time to set the house on fire. The rest of us can enjoy UCONN/Memphis tomorrow.

Woah woah woah! According to Bill Walton the Pac-12 is probably the best conference because they have Arizona.

 

[tzznandrew]

The SEC is probably better top to bottom than the AAC too. But nobody will be saying that on Selection Sunday. They'll be saying that the SEC is a lousy, 2-3 bid league this year. Again, the fact that Mississippi State is better than Houston isn't going to matter to anyone. Except you I guess.

I'm sure your overall point is that the terrible teams at the bottom of the conference are going to doom the good teams at the top of the conference. Well guess what, it didn't happen this year. Unless something crazy happens down the stretch, the 5 good AAC teams are making the tournament.

When half your conference is good, there are enough good games (8) to outweigh the dreck (10). But once Louisville leaves, it becomes more problematic. If teams don't improve significantly enough, and even if UConn, Memphis and Cincy don't take a step back despite losing key seniors, you're looking at 6 good games vs. 12 bad ones. And if the league doesn't have UConn play home and homes against Cincy, SMU, and Memphis, you could end up with something like 4 and 14. That would be an RPI killer.

 

[ctchamps]

Yeah, Nelson is disappointed that his prediction that the AAC would (paraphrasing) "destroy UCONN basketball so we better get out quick" could not be more wrong. He's grasping at straws and for some reason seems to be rooting against our current conference. He would prefer to be right than have this league do well.

Right now the AAC has as many ranked teams as the Big East, Pac 12, and SEC combined so according to Nelson it's time to set the house on fire. The rest of us can enjoy UCONN/Memphis tomorrow.

This!

In fairness to Nelson he could end up being correct. UConn could be betting on the wrong horse. But he's lobbying his position as much as he stating the rationale for his conclusion. In other words, he's conveniently leaving out any evidence that refutes his position. I admire his grit and pluckiness regarding his incessant need to get us to agree with his perspective. But I question why he puts so much effort into something that, even if we come around to his thinking, won't impact future events for UConn one iota.

I sometimes picture him on the streets of NYC with a sign that says the "world is coming to an end".

 

[HuskyHawk]

The Big East is deeper, I don't think anyone can dispute that. Also, the Big East gets better soon, with Saint Louis, while the AAC loses Louisville and adds two lousy basketball programs (although Tulsa has some history of decent teams). So it is only going to get worse.

The AAC is helped this season by an unusually strong SMU team and Cinci team that is also above their (pretty good) norm. Meanwhile, Temple is much worse than we should expect. In most years, the AAC will be UConn and then maybe 2-3 others hoping for an NCAA bid.

The real lack of depth will be seen with the NIT. The AAC may get five in the NCAAs, and none in the NIT.

 

[upstater]

Sean O'Leary ‏@stholeary 12m
Villanova/Georgetown on @FOXSports1 Jan. 27 drew only 105k viewers. http://sonofthebronx.blogspot.com/2014/02/nbc-sports-network-nbcsn-fox-sports-1.html… 271 shows on ESPN/2/U that week had more viewers.

UConn v. Cincy 933k viewers.

I mean, this should be eye-popping for recruits. 9x as many people will watch your games at UConn.

UCF-UConn on Sunday at 6 pm: 308k viewers. UCF gets more than Nova v. Georgetown. Iverson and Kittles aren't walking through that door.

 

[upstater]

Here's another: despite the oddball gametime of 6 pm on a Sunday, 308k watched the UConn-UCF game. 3x as many as Villanova-Georgetown.

 

[Husky25]

The Big East is deeper, I don't think anyone can dispute that. Also, the Big East gets better soon, with Saint Louis, while the AAC loses Louisville and adds two lousy basketball programs (although Tulsa has some history of decent teams). So it is only going to get worse.

The AAC is helped this season by an unusually strong SMU team and Cinci team that is also above their (pretty good) norm. Meanwhile, Temple is much worse than we should expect. In most years, the AAC will be UConn and then maybe 2-3 others hoping for an NCAA bid.

The real lack of depth will be seen with the NIT. The AAC may get five in the NCAAs, and none in the NIT.

I understand what you are saying, but the goal is not to get teams in the NIT. Just throwing numbers out there, If the AAC gets 5 teams in the NCAA Tourney and the Big East gets 2 teams in the NCAA Tourney and 4 in the NIT, which conference performed better? I say the AAC.

The AAC is more successful this year. The Big East will probably be better in comparison next year and the year after. Any prediction further in the future is a S.W.A.G. UConn has the advantage that Georgetown enjoyed in the 80s, which is a kid works hard, he has a shot at going to the NBA. Ollie developed Napier from a 2nd rounder into a POY candidate and likely lottery pick. Recruits take notice. Other schools in the conference use the better schools as their own recruiting leverage (i.e. You'll be on ESPN or CBS, you'll play against one of the best and most storied programs of the recent past.). Calhoun said on CenterStage that he recruited this way in the 80's, then he got Donyell to the NBA as an early entrant and was able to recruit his first McDAA.

State of the Art facilities don't hurt Ollie's cause either.

 

[tzznandrew]

I understand what you are saying, but the goal is not to get teams in the NIT. Just throwing numbers out there, If the AAC gets 5 teams in the NCAA Tourney and the Big East gets 2 teams in the NCAA Tourney and 4 in the NIT, which conference performed better? I say the AAC.

The AAC is more successful this year. The Big East will probably be better in comparison next year and the year after. Any prediction further in the future is a S.W.A.G. UConn has the advantage that Georgetown enjoyed in the 80s, which is a kid works hard, he has a shot at going to the NBA. Ollie developed Napier from a 2nd rounder into a POY candidate and likely lottery pick. Recruits take notice. Other schools in the conference use the better schools as their own recruiting leverage (i.e. You'll be on ESPN or CBS, you'll play against one of the best and most storied programs of the recent past.). Calhoun said on CenterStage that he recruited this way in the 80's, then he got Donyell to the NBA as an early entrant and was able to recruit his first McDAA.

State of the Art facilities don't hurt Ollie's cause either.

Well, let's say they get 2 and the AAC gets 5. I think the BE will get 3-4, but who knows. Let's say the Big East gets two teams to the S16, and one to the Final Four. The AAC has 3 teams eliminated in round 1, 1 in round 2, and one makes the S16. Who better prepared their top teams for the NCAAs?

That's one thing that's great about depth. An 14-4 team that has blown out a number of bad teams could still be 14-4 against a different slate of mediocre teams, but because mediocre teams could keep the score close, and will punish you for mistakes, it helps you to hone your skills.

 

[Husky25]

Well, let's say they get 2 and the AAC gets 5. I think the BE will get 3-4, but who knows. Let's say the Big East gets two teams to the S16, and one to the Final Four. The AAC has 3 teams eliminated in round 1, 1 in round 2, and one makes the S16. Who better prepared their top teams for the NCAAs?

That's one thing that's great about depth. An 14-4 team that has blown out a number of bad teams could still be 14-4 against a different slate of mediocre teams, but because mediocre teams could keep the score close, and will punish you for mistakes, it helps you to hone your skills.

What are the matchups? In another thread, we're talking about the '98-'99 Huskies and Blue Devils (I don't recall if you've posted over there). None of the top 4 seeds, other than Duke and UConn, in their region made it by the Round of 32. The ACC was weak that year but were the Big 12, SEC, and PAC10 also equally as weak because they lost to 10, 13, 14 seeds? Getting to the tournament is one thing. Doing well is another.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

Well, let's say they get 2 and the AAC gets 5. I think the BE will get 3-4, but who knows. Let's say the Big East gets two teams to the S16, and one to the Final Four. The AAC has 3 teams eliminated in round 1, 1 in round 2, and one makes the S16. Who better prepared their top teams for the NCAAs?

That's one thing that's great about depth. An 14-4 team that has blown out a number of bad teams could still be 14-4 against a different slate of mediocre teams, but because mediocre teams could keep the score close, and will punish you for mistakes, it helps you to hone your skills.

This theory was disproved in 2011, when pretty much all of the 11 Big East teams not named Uconn were eliminated early from the tournament.

 

[tzznandrew]

This theory was disproved in 2011, when pretty much all of the 11 Big East teams not named Uconn were eliminated early from the tournament.

Well, considering UConn eliminated Cincy, and Marquette eliminated Syracuse, I don't really think this is fair. The Big East had only 2 S16 teams, but it could have easily been 4.

Also, Pitt got jobbed in that Butler game.

And, Preston Knowles, Louisville's leading scorer, got carted off with about 9 minutes left in their loss.

 

[tzznandrew]

What are the matchups? In another thread, we're talking about the '98-'99 Huskies and Blue Devils (I don't recall if you've posted over there). None of the top 4 seeds, other than Duke and UConn, in their region made it by the Round of 32. The ACC was weak that year but were the Big 12, SEC, and PAC10 also equally as weak because they lost to 10, 13, 14 seeds? Getting to the tournament is one thing. Doing well is another.

It's a fair point. Matchups matter, for sure. I guess my thought is, if a whole conference flames out, that speaks of that conference poorly. If a whole conference does well, it speaks well of it. Any one game isn't really enough. But in 1999, the B1G had two final four teams; the BE had the champion and an E8 team. The rest of the tournament was pretty much a clusterduck (Gonzaga, Tulsa, Temple were the other E8 teams), suggesting that the BE and B1G were better than the other major conferences that year.

 

[Inyatkin]

Well, considering UConn eliminated Cincy, and Marquette eliminated Syracuse, I don't really think this is fair. The Big East had only 2 S16 teams, but it could have easily been 4.

Also, Pitt got jobbed in that Butler game.

And, Preston Knowles, Louisville's leading scorer, got carted off with about 9 minutes left in their loss.

Plus St. John's and DJ Kennedy.
Still, if you're going to say the Big East could have had four because of the match ups you can just as easily say we could have had zero if they weren't all playing each other.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

Well, considering UConn eliminated Cincy, and Marquette eliminated Syracuse, I don't really think this is fair. The Big East had only 2 S16 teams, but it could have easily been 4.

Also, Pitt got jobbed in that Butler game.

And, Preston Knowles, Louisville's leading scorer, got carted off with about 9 minutes left in their loss.

Come on now. Pittsburgh and Louisville played ~20 games each (including the BE tournament) in the toughest basketball conference in history and still lost in the first weekend to teams from the Horizon League and Ohio Valley Conference, respectively. If your theory had merit, Louisville's tough conference schedule should have had them so much better prepared than Morehead State that they should have been able to beat them even without Knowles. I recall VCU (from the CAA at the time) being plenty "prepared" when they ran Kansas out of the gym to make the Final Four in 2011.

The best and/or hottest teams win in the NCAA tournament. What conference they come from doesn't make a ton of difference.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I understand what you are saying, but the goal is not to get teams in the NIT. Just throwing numbers out there, If the AAC gets 5 teams in the NCAA Tourney and the Big East gets 2 teams in the NCAA Tourney and 4 in the NIT, which conference performed better? I say the AAC.

The AAC is more successful this year. The Big East will probably be better in comparison next year and the year after. Any prediction further in the future is a S.W.A.G. UConn has the advantage that Georgetown enjoyed in the 80s, which is a kid works hard, he has a shot at going to the NBA. Ollie developed Napier from a 2nd rounder into a POY candidate and likely lottery pick. Recruits take notice. Other schools in the conference use the better schools as their own recruiting leverage (i.e. You'll be on ESPN or CBS, you'll play against one of the best and most storied programs of the recent past.). Calhoun said on CenterStage that he recruited this way in the 80's, then he got Donyell to the NBA as an early entrant and was able to recruit his first McDAA.

State of the Art facilities don't hurt Ollie's cause either.

That's not the point. The point is that the Big East is deeper. In any given year it has more quality teams. That means more teams you can lose to in conference, and more good wins in conference play. This year the AAC is better, but with Louisville out and SLU in, that is very likely to change in a very big way.

The NIT matters because it reflects depth. UConn in 2010-11 lost a lot of games, some to NIT bound teams. There's no shame there. Losing to the bottom of the AAC is entirely different. It's not quite what Memphis used to have the CUSA, but it isn't far off. Football in the AAC is the opposite by the way, it seems to have some decent depth and lacks any real top teams. UConn can survive it, but will be in a situation somewhat like Gonzaga has had historically, maybe more like UNLV had in their prime.

 

[upstater]

TIt's not quite what Memphis used to have the CUSA, but it isn't far off.

This may be true right now but let's not forget 2 of these teams were in the BE and the other was a top A10 team. UConn also lost to one of the CUSA teams this year.

 

[tzznandrew]

The best and/or hottest teams win in the NCAA tournament. What conference they come from doesn't make a ton of difference.

You're fooling yourself if you think conference affiliation doesn't matter. Certainly, a team can be much better than the conference their in, and perhaps it will not hurt them. Think Memphis in 2008 or Duke in 1999. But more often than not, a weak conference doesn't seem to prepare a good team for the rigors of the NCAA. Think Gonzaga in 2006 (every year, really, since 2002 or so). Think Memphis most years since 2008.

Should Pitt have beaten Butler? Yes. Should it not have been as close as it was? Sure. Same with Louisville. But you don't get to negate the ways conference strength affects success on one or two examples.

There's a reason Michigan State almost always goes further than their seed: they play in a great conference and they play a really good OOC. They're prepared for the tournament because they learned that you can't slack off still win.

 

[zls44]

The highest-rated Big East men's game on Fox Sports 1 last week drew 160,000 viewers (Creighton vs. St. John's), good for tenth-best on the network:

http://sonofthebronx.blogspot.com/2...14.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter


1 MONSTER ENERGY SUPERCROSS (live) Sat10:30PM- 1:25AM 457,000 viewers
2 ULTIMATE FIGHTER NATIONSWed10:00PM-11:00PM 384,000 viewers
3 UFC UNLEASHEDWed8:00PM- 9:00PM 350,000 viewers
4 ULTIMATE FIGHTER NATIONSWed9:00PM-10:00PM 314,000 viewers
5 HARLEM GLOBETROTTERS HOOPSun12:00PM- 1:00PM 227,000 viewers
6 UFC MAIN EVENTWed7:00PM- 8:00PM 213,000 viewers
7 WESTMINSTER AGILITY CHP (live)Sat7:30PM-10:05PM 212,000 viewers
8 COLLEGE BASKETBALL: PAC 12 (live)Sat5:11PM- 7:30PM 175,000 viewers
9 NASCAR RACE HUB (live)Fri4:00PM- 5:00PM 163,000 viewers
10 COLLEGE BASKETBALL: BIG EAST (live)Sun6:59PM- 9:30PM 160,000 viewers

More: http://sonofthebronx.blogspot.com/2014/02/espn-espn2-espnu-and-espnews-ratings_13.html

UConn WBB vs. Louisville on ESPN: 581,000 viewers

PBA Bowling on ESPN Last Week: 470,000 viewers

Hockey East on NBCSN Last Week:
Maine-Notre Dame 214,000 viewers

Sportsnation's Jeers of the Month on ESPNEWS last week: 142,000 viewers

Big East Men's Games on FS1 Last Week:
Creighton-St. John's 160,000 viewers
Butler-Marquette 106,000 viewers
Seton Hall-Villanova 89,000 viewers
DePaul-Creighton 79,000 viewers
Xavier-Villanova 77,000 viewers
Georgetown-DePaul 59,000 viewers
Providence-Xavier 56,000 viewers
St. John's-Providence 54,000 viewers

144 programs on ESPN were rated during this period.
144 programs on ESPN had higher ratings than any Big East game on FS1 during this period.

 

[metsfan2323]

Butler-Marquette 106,000 viewers
Seton Hall-Villanova 89,000 viewers
DePaul-Creighton 79,000 viewers
Xavier-Villanova 77,000 viewers
Georgetown-DePaul 59,000 viewers
Providence-Xavier 56,000 viewers
St. John's-Providence 54,000 viewers

All of these Big East games combined totaled 520,000, or 61,000 less than UCONN women vs Louisville.

This is hard to believe. The Slap Chop infomercial can get higher ratings then the Big East on FSiberia1.

A show called Dogs in Hats could get better ratings.

 

[zls44]

. The Slap Chop infomercial can get higher ratings then the Big East on FSiberia1. ]

You're gonna love his nuts!

 

[UConnDan97]

Butler-Marquette 106,000 viewers
Seton Hall-Villanova 89,000 viewers
DePaul-Creighton 79,000 viewers
Xavier-Villanova 77,000 viewers
Georgetown-DePaul 59,000 viewers
Providence-Xavier 56,000 viewers
St. John's-Providence 54,000 viewers

All of these Big East games combined totaled 520,000, or 61,000 less than UCONN women vs Louisville.

This is hard to believe. The Slap Chop infomercial can get higher ratings then the Big East on FSiberia1.

A show called Dogs in Hats could get better ratings.

Those numbers are friggin' amazing! Wow...

 

[ecasadoSBU]

Goshhhh. Anyone watching the matchup between Villanova and Providence. What a gameeeeee