Throw Back Monday - Revisiting AAC vs. C7 Debate

[metsfan2323]

1
Saint Louis on the road is a very impressive win: 19 in pomeroy ratings.

St Louis is the most overrated team in the country. They don't have any impressive wins, the two best teams they have played were home losses. St Louis was only one point better than URI.

 

[tzznandrew]

St Louis is the most overrated team in the country. They don't have any impressive wins, the two best teams they have played were home losses. St Louis was only one point better than URI.

You can't judge one game as the whole season. Otherwise we are only one point better than BC...who has worse pomeroy and RPI than Rhode Island (RPI 184 to RPI 142).

 

[ecasadoSBU]

St. John's beat Seton Hall tonight.

Current Big East RPIs:

Villanova 5
Creighton 12
Xavier 37
Georgetown 55
Providence 57
St. Johns 58
Marquette 76

Things are getting interesting in the Big East...

 

[UConnDan97]

St. John's beat Seton Hall tonight.
Current Big East RPIs:

Villanova 5
Creighton 12
Xavier 37
Georgetown 55
Providence 57
St. Johns 58
Marquette 76

Things are getting interesting in the Big East...

Oddly enough, I would love to get matched up against teams like these in the tourney. Not one of them scares me. However, there are teams in our own conference that I wouldn't be elated to play against...

 

[nelsonmuntz]

From the PC board:

Home Attendance
Team ..... Last Year ..... This Year ... Percentage

Creighton ... 17,155 ... 17,684 .. +3.1%
Butler ... 7,899 ..... 7,965 ... +.84%
Xavier .. 9,781 ..... 9,825 .... +.45%
-------------------------------------------------- ---------------------
Marquette .. 15,033 ... 14,949 .. -.56%
Providence... 7,772 .... 7,531 .... -3.1%
St. John's ... 7,330 ..... 6,996 ... -4.6%
Villanova ..... 8,022 .... 7,134 .... -11.1%
Seton Hall ... 7,035 .... 6,237 .... -11.3%
DePaul .. 7,681 ..... 6,109 .... -20.5%
Georgetown . 10,911 .. 8,664 .... -20.6%
-------------------------------------------------- ----------------------

We are in a glass house and Z just pulled out a catapult.

In a shocking development, pulling Syracuse, Louisville, and UConn off their schedules resulted in fewer fans. What did pulling those teams above plus Pitt do for UConn's attendance?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

What matters in college basketball is the NCAA tournament. If you make it, you matter. If you don't make it, you don't matter. Sure, the lousy teams in the Big East that won't make the tournament are better than the lousy teams in the AAC who won't make the tournament. But guess what, none of them are making the tournament....and none of them matter.

Nobody cares that Seton Hall and Butler are better than Rutgers and Central Florida. What people do care about is how many teams you have in the dance on Selection Sunday. When people remember how great the old Big East was, they don't reference conference RPI. They reference that we once got 11 teams in the tournament.

This is one of the most wrong posts I have seen in a while. It is wrong mathematically, and next year we are going to learn just how wrong this is when we replace Louisville and a slug with three slugs that will have RPI's between 150 and 225.

 

[tzznandrew]

This is one of the most wrong posts I have seen in a while. It is wrong mathematically, and next year we are going to learn just how wrong this is when we replace Louisville and a slug with three slugs that will have RPI's between 150 and 225.

Unfortunately, you're right. People do remember that the Big East got 11 teams in the tournament. And they only got 11 teams in because of the overall strength of the conference, top to bottom. If those bottom 5 teams were significantly worse (like in the AAC), a loss or two to them would have been devastating, and probably popped a bubble--probably Marquette's.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The Big East schools are 20-18 against P5 schools (I did not include SHU's win over Rutgers in this).

The teams that will make up next year's AAC (less UConn) are 10-21 against p5 schools.

Yep. These two leagues are equal.

 

[tzznandrew]

The Big East schools are 20-18 against P5 schools (I did not include SHU's win over Rutgers in this).

The teams that will make up next year's AAC (less UConn) are 10-21 against p5 schools.

Yep. These two leagues are equal.

Well, I think the BE is a better conference top to bottom this year. People here are more bullish on the conference than I think is justified, especially considering who is leaving.

But you can't keep taking out UConn of the AAC. It's irrelevant, and their inclusion is part of what makes the AAC somewhat viable.

Just do a BE and an AAC with current members this year. And then take out Lousiville and Rutgers, and add the new dregs. Otherwise, it's a wholly unfair comparison.

 

[Husky25]

Well, I think the BE is a better conference top to bottom this year. People here are more bullish on the conference than I think is justified, especially considering who is leaving.

But you can't keep taking out UConn of the AAC. It's irrelevant, and their inclusion is part of what makes the AAC somewhat viable.

Just do a BE and an AAC with current members this year. And then take out Lousiville and Rutgers, and add the new dregs. Otherwise, it's a wholly unfair comparison.

The only way his argument makes sense is to pull UConn out of the equation.

 

[metsfan2323]

The only way his argument makes sense is to pull UConn out of the equation.

Yeah, Nelson is disappointed that his prediction that the AAC would (paraphrasing) "destroy UCONN basketball so we better get out quick" could not be more wrong. He's grasping at straws and for some reason seems to be rooting against our current conference. He would prefer to be right than have this league do well.

Right now the AAC has as many ranked teams as the Big East, Pac 12, and SEC combined so according to Nelson it's time to set the house on fire. The rest of us can enjoy UCONN/Memphis tomorrow.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

This is one of the most wrong posts I have seen in a while. It is wrong mathematically, and next year we are going to learn just how wrong this is when we replace Louisville and a slug with three slugs that will have RPI's between 150 and 225.

The SEC is probably better top to bottom than the AAC too. But nobody will be saying that on Selection Sunday. They'll be saying that the SEC is a lousy, 2-3 bid league this year. Again, the fact that Mississippi State is better than Houston isn't going to matter to anyone. Except you I guess.

I'm sure your overall point is that the terrible teams at the bottom of the conference are going to doom the good teams at the top of the conference. Well guess what, it didn't happen this year. Unless something crazy happens down the stretch, the 5 good AAC teams are making the tournament.

 

[breezy]

Yeah, Nelson is disappointed that his prediction that the AAC would (paraphrasing) "destroy UCONN basketball so we better get out quick" could not be more wrong. He's grasping at straws and for some reason seems to be rooting against our current conference. He would prefer to be right than have this league do well.

Right now the AAC has as many ranked teams as the Big East, Pac 12, and SEC combined so according to Nelson it's time to set the house on fire. The rest of us can enjoy UCONN/Memphis tomorrow.

Woah woah woah! According to Bill Walton the Pac-12 is probably the best conference because they have Arizona.

 

[tzznandrew]

The SEC is probably better top to bottom than the AAC too. But nobody will be saying that on Selection Sunday. They'll be saying that the SEC is a lousy, 2-3 bid league this year. Again, the fact that Mississippi State is better than Houston isn't going to matter to anyone. Except you I guess.

I'm sure your overall point is that the terrible teams at the bottom of the conference are going to doom the good teams at the top of the conference. Well guess what, it didn't happen this year. Unless something crazy happens down the stretch, the 5 good AAC teams are making the tournament.

When half your conference is good, there are enough good games (8) to outweigh the dreck (10). But once Louisville leaves, it becomes more problematic. If teams don't improve significantly enough, and even if UConn, Memphis and Cincy don't take a step back despite losing key seniors, you're looking at 6 good games vs. 12 bad ones. And if the league doesn't have UConn play home and homes against Cincy, SMU, and Memphis, you could end up with something like 4 and 14. That would be an RPI killer.

 

[ctchamps]

Yeah, Nelson is disappointed that his prediction that the AAC would (paraphrasing) "destroy UCONN basketball so we better get out quick" could not be more wrong. He's grasping at straws and for some reason seems to be rooting against our current conference. He would prefer to be right than have this league do well.

Right now the AAC has as many ranked teams as the Big East, Pac 12, and SEC combined so according to Nelson it's time to set the house on fire. The rest of us can enjoy UCONN/Memphis tomorrow.

This!

In fairness to Nelson he could end up being correct. UConn could be betting on the wrong horse. But he's lobbying his position as much as he stating the rationale for his conclusion. In other words, he's conveniently leaving out any evidence that refutes his position. I admire his grit and pluckiness regarding his incessant need to get us to agree with his perspective. But I question why he puts so much effort into something that, even if we come around to his thinking, won't impact future events for UConn one iota.

I sometimes picture him on the streets of NYC with a sign that says the "world is coming to an end".

 

[HuskyHawk]

The Big East is deeper, I don't think anyone can dispute that. Also, the Big East gets better soon, with Saint Louis, while the AAC loses Louisville and adds two lousy basketball programs (although Tulsa has some history of decent teams). So it is only going to get worse.

The AAC is helped this season by an unusually strong SMU team and Cinci team that is also above their (pretty good) norm. Meanwhile, Temple is much worse than we should expect. In most years, the AAC will be UConn and then maybe 2-3 others hoping for an NCAA bid.

The real lack of depth will be seen with the NIT. The AAC may get five in the NCAAs, and none in the NIT.

 

[upstater]

Sean O'Leary ‏@stholeary 12m
Villanova/Georgetown on @FOXSports1 Jan. 27 drew only 105k viewers. http://sonofthebronx.blogspot.com/2014/02/nbc-sports-network-nbcsn-fox-sports-1.html… 271 shows on ESPN/2/U that week had more viewers.

UConn v. Cincy 933k viewers.

I mean, this should be eye-popping for recruits. 9x as many people will watch your games at UConn.

UCF-UConn on Sunday at 6 pm: 308k viewers. UCF gets more than Nova v. Georgetown. Iverson and Kittles aren't walking through that door.

 

[upstater]

Here's another: despite the oddball gametime of 6 pm on a Sunday, 308k watched the UConn-UCF game. 3x as many as Villanova-Georgetown.

 

[Husky25]

The Big East is deeper, I don't think anyone can dispute that. Also, the Big East gets better soon, with Saint Louis, while the AAC loses Louisville and adds two lousy basketball programs (although Tulsa has some history of decent teams). So it is only going to get worse.

The AAC is helped this season by an unusually strong SMU team and Cinci team that is also above their (pretty good) norm. Meanwhile, Temple is much worse than we should expect. In most years, the AAC will be UConn and then maybe 2-3 others hoping for an NCAA bid.

The real lack of depth will be seen with the NIT. The AAC may get five in the NCAAs, and none in the NIT.

I understand what you are saying, but the goal is not to get teams in the NIT. Just throwing numbers out there, If the AAC gets 5 teams in the NCAA Tourney and the Big East gets 2 teams in the NCAA Tourney and 4 in the NIT, which conference performed better? I say the AAC.

The AAC is more successful this year. The Big East will probably be better in comparison next year and the year after. Any prediction further in the future is a S.W.A.G. UConn has the advantage that Georgetown enjoyed in the 80s, which is a kid works hard, he has a shot at going to the NBA. Ollie developed Napier from a 2nd rounder into a POY candidate and likely lottery pick. Recruits take notice. Other schools in the conference use the better schools as their own recruiting leverage (i.e. You'll be on ESPN or CBS, you'll play against one of the best and most storied programs of the recent past.). Calhoun said on CenterStage that he recruited this way in the 80's, then he got Donyell to the NBA as an early entrant and was able to recruit his first McDAA.

State of the Art facilities don't hurt Ollie's cause either.

 

[tzznandrew]

I understand what you are saying, but the goal is not to get teams in the NIT. Just throwing numbers out there, If the AAC gets 5 teams in the NCAA Tourney and the Big East gets 2 teams in the NCAA Tourney and 4 in the NIT, which conference performed better? I say the AAC.

The AAC is more successful this year. The Big East will probably be better in comparison next year and the year after. Any prediction further in the future is a S.W.A.G. UConn has the advantage that Georgetown enjoyed in the 80s, which is a kid works hard, he has a shot at going to the NBA. Ollie developed Napier from a 2nd rounder into a POY candidate and likely lottery pick. Recruits take notice. Other schools in the conference use the better schools as their own recruiting leverage (i.e. You'll be on ESPN or CBS, you'll play against one of the best and most storied programs of the recent past.). Calhoun said on CenterStage that he recruited this way in the 80's, then he got Donyell to the NBA as an early entrant and was able to recruit his first McDAA.

State of the Art facilities don't hurt Ollie's cause either.

Well, let's say they get 2 and the AAC gets 5. I think the BE will get 3-4, but who knows. Let's say the Big East gets two teams to the S16, and one to the Final Four. The AAC has 3 teams eliminated in round 1, 1 in round 2, and one makes the S16. Who better prepared their top teams for the NCAAs?

That's one thing that's great about depth. An 14-4 team that has blown out a number of bad teams could still be 14-4 against a different slate of mediocre teams, but because mediocre teams could keep the score close, and will punish you for mistakes, it helps you to hone your skills.

 

[Husky25]

Well, let's say they get 2 and the AAC gets 5. I think the BE will get 3-4, but who knows. Let's say the Big East gets two teams to the S16, and one to the Final Four. The AAC has 3 teams eliminated in round 1, 1 in round 2, and one makes the S16. Who better prepared their top teams for the NCAAs?

That's one thing that's great about depth. An 14-4 team that has blown out a number of bad teams could still be 14-4 against a different slate of mediocre teams, but because mediocre teams could keep the score close, and will punish you for mistakes, it helps you to hone your skills.

What are the matchups? In another thread, we're talking about the '98-'99 Huskies and Blue Devils (I don't recall if you've posted over there). None of the top 4 seeds, other than Duke and UConn, in their region made it by the Round of 32. The ACC was weak that year but were the Big 12, SEC, and PAC10 also equally as weak because they lost to 10, 13, 14 seeds? Getting to the tournament is one thing. Doing well is another.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

Well, let's say they get 2 and the AAC gets 5. I think the BE will get 3-4, but who knows. Let's say the Big East gets two teams to the S16, and one to the Final Four. The AAC has 3 teams eliminated in round 1, 1 in round 2, and one makes the S16. Who better prepared their top teams for the NCAAs?

That's one thing that's great about depth. An 14-4 team that has blown out a number of bad teams could still be 14-4 against a different slate of mediocre teams, but because mediocre teams could keep the score close, and will punish you for mistakes, it helps you to hone your skills.

This theory was disproved in 2011, when pretty much all of the 11 Big East teams not named Uconn were eliminated early from the tournament.

 

[tzznandrew]

This theory was disproved in 2011, when pretty much all of the 11 Big East teams not named Uconn were eliminated early from the tournament.

Well, considering UConn eliminated Cincy, and Marquette eliminated Syracuse, I don't really think this is fair. The Big East had only 2 S16 teams, but it could have easily been 4.

Also, Pitt got jobbed in that Butler game.

And, Preston Knowles, Louisville's leading scorer, got carted off with about 9 minutes left in their loss.

 

[tzznandrew]

What are the matchups? In another thread, we're talking about the '98-'99 Huskies and Blue Devils (I don't recall if you've posted over there). None of the top 4 seeds, other than Duke and UConn, in their region made it by the Round of 32. The ACC was weak that year but were the Big 12, SEC, and PAC10 also equally as weak because they lost to 10, 13, 14 seeds? Getting to the tournament is one thing. Doing well is another.

It's a fair point. Matchups matter, for sure. I guess my thought is, if a whole conference flames out, that speaks of that conference poorly. If a whole conference does well, it speaks well of it. Any one game isn't really enough. But in 1999, the B1G had two final four teams; the BE had the champion and an E8 team. The rest of the tournament was pretty much a clusterduck (Gonzaga, Tulsa, Temple were the other E8 teams), suggesting that the BE and B1G were better than the other major conferences that year.

 

[Inyatkin]

Well, considering UConn eliminated Cincy, and Marquette eliminated Syracuse, I don't really think this is fair. The Big East had only 2 S16 teams, but it could have easily been 4.

Also, Pitt got jobbed in that Butler game.

And, Preston Knowles, Louisville's leading scorer, got carted off with about 9 minutes left in their loss.

Plus St. John's and DJ Kennedy.
Still, if you're going to say the Big East could have had four because of the match ups you can just as easily say we could have had zero if they weren't all playing each other.