Throw Back Monday - Revisiting AAC vs. C7 Debate

[upstater]

If you can't tell the difference between the Big East top to bottom and the AAC top to bottom, you don't understand much about basketball.

5 teams in the top 25.

Meanwhile, Fox has reporters writing articles about the BE's rough first impression.

http://msn.foxsports.com/wisconsin/story/gruman-big-east-making-rough-first-impression-020514

This is what the nation is seeing.

5 teams in the top 25. BE rough first impression. Whether your assessment is more valid or not, reality is that people notice ranked teams.

 

[tcf15]

Sean O'Leary ‏@stholeary 12m
Villanova/Georgetown on @FOXSports1 Jan. 27 drew only 105k viewers. http://sonofthebronx.blogspot.com/2014/02/nbc-sports-network-nbcsn-fox-sports-1.html… 271 shows on ESPN/2/U that week had more viewers.

 

[Husky25]

Who is projected to win the AAC in football next year? Cincinnati, USF, East Carolina, UConn (?)

Who is projected to win the Big East in Football next year? *Crickets*

The jury has reached a verdict. Even with losing Louisville and Rutgers, schools in the AAC (and the AAC itself) have a better shot at avoiding being mid-major. Without football, the Big East have intentionally handicapped themselves.

 

[upstater]

Sean O'Leary ‏@stholeary 12m
Villanova/Georgetown on @FOXSports1 Jan. 27 drew only 105k viewers. http://sonofthebronx.blogspot.com/2014/02/nbc-sports-network-nbcsn-fox-sports-1.html… 271 shows on ESPN/2/U that week had more viewers.

The scary thing about that is College Hockey on NBC SN is just as popular as BE bball.

 

[freescooter]

The big problem is that this league entirely disappears from the airwaves from March until November. The AAC, despite its issues, will continue to get at least some coverage of its football programs all summer. And unless the Faux East suddenly becomes the Big East of old in terms of basketball, and nobody who is honest really expects that, it becomes just another basketball league pretty quickly.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Who is projected to win the AAC in football next year? Cincinnati, USF, East Carolina, UConn (?)

Who is projected to win the Big East in Football next year? *Crickets*

The jury has reached a verdict. Even with losing Louisville and Rutgers, schools in the AAC (and the AAC itself) have a better shot at avoiding being mid-major. Without football, the Big East have intentionally handicapped themselves.

That must be why the Sun Belt and CUSA are so good at basketball.

 

[freescooter]

All of this really doesn't matter that much. Over time, a football/basketball hybrid is just not going to work. UConn was never going in that direction again. They wanted and it makes the most sense to have an all-sports conference, where members share at least some common goals. In the Faux East, UConn would have been a fish out of water. While basketball is our primary sport, we have major commitments to many others.

 

[Husky25]

That must be why the Sun Belt and CUSA are so good at basketball.

Strawman argument.

 

[nadav]

I watched PC v Gtown last night, prob 1 of about 36,000 nationwide viewers. Neither team is going dancing, its a 3 bid league. It was also apparent that the Hoya fans don't share the rabid excitement that Nelson has for the league, they only had 8,000 for a big game. I think they averaged around 11k just last year.

Anyone who prefers to be on FS1 over ESPN for a few extra bucks isn't being honest. We know what's going on with the New Big East because we know those teams...people in most of the rest of the country haven't seen Nova (a top 10 team) play all season, because they don't know what the hell FS1 is and also because ESPN spends little to know time talking about them.

The AAC isn't ideal, but lets stop talking about the Big East like its paradise because of their inflated RPI numbers.

 

[ecasadoSBU]

Marquette beat Seton Hall tonight. The Big East now has seven teams in the Top 70. If Xavier beats Butler tonight it will help separate the top from the Bottom. Nova, Creighton, Xavier, and two of the following three: Georgetown, St. Johns, Providence will most likely be dancing come March.

I really feel like the Big East can continue to compete despite not having football. The A-10 has remained a strong multi-bid conference and I don't doubt the Big East will remain stronger than an A-10. Obviously, not having a deal with ESPN will hurt them in the short to mid run but if FS1 continues to grow and get more TV contracts then they can slowly become a household name. Its tough being the new guy in the block but I don't know how so many people here are so loyal to ESPN who has destroyed the old Big East, put Connecticut in conference-realignment limbo, and monopolizes College Athletics to the extent of being capable of bringing any program down. Competition is good, and I'm glad FS1 and CBS-SN are around

 

[zls44]

From the PC board:

Home Attendance
Team ..... Last Year ..... This Year ... Percentage

Creighton ... 17,155 ........ 17,684 ....... +3.1%
Butler ........ 7,899 .......... 7,965 ........ +.84%
Xavier ....... 9,781 .......... 9,825 ......... +.45%
-------------------------------------------------- ---------------------
Marquette .. 15,033 ........ 14,949 ....... -.56%
Providence... 7,772 ......... 7,531 ......... -3.1%
St. John's ... 7,330 .......... 6,996 ........ -4.6%
Villanova ..... 8,022 ......... 7,134 ......... -11.1%
Seton Hall ... 7,035 ......... 6,237 ......... -11.3%
DePaul ....... 7,681 .......... 6,109 ......... -20.5%
Georgetown . 10,911 ....... 8,664 ......... -20.6%
-------------------------------------------------- ----------------------

 

[ecasadoSBU]

From the PC board:

Home Attendance
Team ..... Last Year ..... This Year ... Percentage

Creighton ... 17,155 ... 17,684 .. +3.1%
Butler ... 7,899 ..... 7,965 ... +.84%
Xavier .. 9,781 ..... 9,825 .... +.45%
-------------------------------------------------- ---------------------
Marquette .. 15,033 ... 14,949 .. -.56%
Providence... 7,772 .... 7,531 .... -3.1%
St. John's ... 7,330 ..... 6,996 ... -4.6%
Villanova ..... 8,022 .... 7,134 .... -11.1%
Seton Hall ... 7,035 .... 6,237 .... -11.3%
DePaul .. 7,681 ..... 6,109 .... -20.5%
Georgetown . 10,911 .. 8,664 .... -20.6%
-------------------------------------------------- ----------------------

ouch. That's actually a very significant attendance drop

 

[kobe]

From the PC board:

Home Attendance
Team ..... Last Year ..... This Year ... Percentage

Creighton ... 17,155 ... 17,684 .. +3.1%
Butler ... 7,899 ..... 7,965 ... +.84%
Xavier .. 9,781 ..... 9,825 .... +.45%
-------------------------------------------------- ---------------------
Marquette .. 15,033 ... 14,949 .. -.56%
Providence... 7,772 .... 7,531 .... -3.1%
St. John's ... 7,330 ..... 6,996 ... -4.6%
Villanova ..... 8,022 .... 7,134 .... -11.1%
Seton Hall ... 7,035 .... 6,237 .... -11.3%
DePaul .. 7,681 ..... 6,109 .... -20.5%
Georgetown . 10,911 .. 8,664 .... -20.6%
-------------------------------------------------- ----------------------

Amazing how that works. Only schools with an increase in attendance are the newbies...

 

[freescooter]

Amazing how that works. Only schools with an increase in attendance are the newbies...

No matter how you slice it, the Faux Big East was in fact a step up for Creighton and those schools. For Villanova, Georgetown et al, replacing games with UConn, Syracuse and Louisville with Creighton, Butler and Xavier cannot be classified as a step up and fans get that.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

This is no contest. The Big East is the #4 conference this year, and if Georgetown was playing an AAC schedule, they would have 17 wins by now. The AAC is lucky to have the top teams knocking each other off at just the right rate plus a lot of easy wins against the bottom half of the league to keep the top 5 teams ranked. The AAC is NOT a better conference than the Big East by any measure of total conference strength.

What matters in college basketball is the NCAA tournament. If you make it, you matter. If you don't make it, you don't matter. Sure, the lousy teams in the Big East that won't make the tournament are better than the lousy teams in the AAC who won't make the tournament. But guess what, none of them are making the tournament....and none of them matter.

Nobody cares that Seton Hall and Butler are better than Rutgers and Central Florida. What people do care about is how many teams you have in the dance on Selection Sunday. When people remember how great the old Big East was, they don't reference conference RPI. They reference that we once got 11 teams in the tournament.

 

[tzznandrew]

What matters in college basketball is the NCAA tournament. If you make it, you matter. If you don't make it, you don't matter. Sure, the lousy teams in the Big East that won't make the tournament are better than the lousy teams in the AAC who won't make the tournament. But guess what, none of them are making the tournament....and none of them matter.

Nobody cares that Seton Hall and Butler are better than Rutgers and Central Florida. What people do care about is how many teams you have in the dance on Selection Sunday. When people remember how great the old Big East was, they don't reference conference RPI. They reference that we once got 11 teams in the tournament.

Well, the key to success is seeding. A conference where the teams that don't make the tournament are mostly Top 100 are going to be given a seed-line or two boost over a conference where 50% are sub-150. Beating a team on the road with an RPI of 75 is more difficult than beating a team ranked 175...neither will make the tournament, but all the statistical models take account of this.

 

[metsfan2323]

Well, the key to success is seeding. A conference where the teams that don't make the tournament are mostly Top 100 are going to be given a seed-line or two boost over a conference where 50% are sub-150. Beating a team on the road with an RPI of 75 is more difficult than beating a team ranked 175...neither will make the tournament, but all the statistical models take account of this.

If we played in a tougher conference we would probably end the year with a couple more losses and the exact same seed we will get coming out of the AAC. It doesn't make a difference.

Wichita State is in a terrible league and they will probably use it as a spring board to a #1 seed.

Playing a weak USF team allowed us to give minutes to our bench and rest our starters which may prove valuable come tournament time.

 

[tzznandrew]

If we played in a tougher conference we would probably end the year with a couple more losses and the exact same seed we will get coming out of the AAC. It doesn't make a difference.

Wichita State is in a terrible league and they will probably use it as a spring board to a #1 seed.

Wichita State went undefeated.

If we played in a tougher conference, we might have an extra loss. I suspect we'd win road games against teams ranked 75-100 at roughly the same clip as sub-175 in a short season. Maybe you add an extra loss, but the gains in RPI are quite good.

Also, playing better teams prepares you better for the NCAA. There's a reason Michigan State always goes further in the NCAA than they should, and that Gonzaga does not. Consistently playing NCAA teams gets you more focused: you can't make silly mistakes and still win. I'm glad we have a very good team every other game up through the end of the year...and then presumably at least one good game in the AAC tournament. It keeps us prepared. Yet, unlike in the BE, there is really no top level team. Cincy's fine and all, but their actual statistics are pretty weak relative to their AP ranking.

 

[metsfan2323]

Also, playing better teams prepares you better for the NCAA.

and yet Butler (twice), VCU, George Mason and Memphis have all been to final fours in the last decade.

BTW we are currently in 5th place in the AAC. If we played Wichita State's schedule we might be undefeated and a 1 seed.

 

[tzznandrew]

1

and yet Butler (twice), VCU, George Mason and Memphis have all been to final fours in the last decade.

BTW we are currently in 5th place in the AAC. If we played Wichita State's schedule we might be undefeated and a 1 seed.

Well, two things: those teams are in the minority. In the last decade, Butler, VCU, George Mason, Memphis, Witchita State added up to 6 final fours. The major conferences had 34. So, if you're going to hang your hat on 15%, okay, sure. Throw in 2003's Marquette and 2005's Louisville, and you go have to go back to 1996 to find another non-BCS conference team in the Final Four. So that's 8 non-BCS teams to 60 BCS teams from 1997-2013.

Also, I highly doubt we'd be undefeated with Witchita State's schedule. Saint Louis on the road is a very impressive win: 19 in pomeroy ratings.

Also, Indiana State is ranked 81 in pomeroy. Northern Iowa 103. Considering we lost to 165 Houston, I wouldn't be shocked if, instead, we had two losses (one to St. Louis, one to Indiana State). Two losses with their schedule puts them at a 4 seed or so.

 

[metsfan2323]

1
Saint Louis on the road is a very impressive win: 19 in pomeroy ratings.

St Louis is the most overrated team in the country. They don't have any impressive wins, the two best teams they have played were home losses. St Louis was only one point better than URI.

 

[tzznandrew]

St Louis is the most overrated team in the country. They don't have any impressive wins, the two best teams they have played were home losses. St Louis was only one point better than URI.

You can't judge one game as the whole season. Otherwise we are only one point better than BC...who has worse pomeroy and RPI than Rhode Island (RPI 184 to RPI 142).

 

[ecasadoSBU]

St. John's beat Seton Hall tonight.

Current Big East RPIs:

Villanova 5
Creighton 12
Xavier 37
Georgetown 55
Providence 57
St. Johns 58
Marquette 76

Things are getting interesting in the Big East...

 

[UConnDan97]

St. John's beat Seton Hall tonight.
Current Big East RPIs:

Villanova 5
Creighton 12
Xavier 37
Georgetown 55
Providence 57
St. Johns 58
Marquette 76

Things are getting interesting in the Big East...

Oddly enough, I would love to get matched up against teams like these in the tourney. Not one of them scares me. However, there are teams in our own conference that I wouldn't be elated to play against...

 

[nelsonmuntz]

From the PC board:

Home Attendance
Team ..... Last Year ..... This Year ... Percentage

Creighton ... 17,155 ... 17,684 .. +3.1%
Butler ... 7,899 ..... 7,965 ... +.84%
Xavier .. 9,781 ..... 9,825 .... +.45%
-------------------------------------------------- ---------------------
Marquette .. 15,033 ... 14,949 .. -.56%
Providence... 7,772 .... 7,531 .... -3.1%
St. John's ... 7,330 ..... 6,996 ... -4.6%
Villanova ..... 8,022 .... 7,134 .... -11.1%
Seton Hall ... 7,035 .... 6,237 .... -11.3%
DePaul .. 7,681 ..... 6,109 .... -20.5%
Georgetown . 10,911 .. 8,664 .... -20.6%
-------------------------------------------------- ----------------------

We are in a glass house and Z just pulled out a catapult.

In a shocking development, pulling Syracuse, Louisville, and UConn off their schedules resulted in fewer fans. What did pulling those teams above plus Pitt do for UConn's attendance?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

What matters in college basketball is the NCAA tournament. If you make it, you matter. If you don't make it, you don't matter. Sure, the lousy teams in the Big East that won't make the tournament are better than the lousy teams in the AAC who won't make the tournament. But guess what, none of them are making the tournament....and none of them matter.

Nobody cares that Seton Hall and Butler are better than Rutgers and Central Florida. What people do care about is how many teams you have in the dance on Selection Sunday. When people remember how great the old Big East was, they don't reference conference RPI. They reference that we once got 11 teams in the tournament.

This is one of the most wrong posts I have seen in a while. It is wrong mathematically, and next year we are going to learn just how wrong this is when we replace Louisville and a slug with three slugs that will have RPI's between 150 and 225.

 

[tzznandrew]

This is one of the most wrong posts I have seen in a while. It is wrong mathematically, and next year we are going to learn just how wrong this is when we replace Louisville and a slug with three slugs that will have RPI's between 150 and 225.

Unfortunately, you're right. People do remember that the Big East got 11 teams in the tournament. And they only got 11 teams in because of the overall strength of the conference, top to bottom. If those bottom 5 teams were significantly worse (like in the AAC), a loss or two to them would have been devastating, and probably popped a bubble--probably Marquette's.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The Big East schools are 20-18 against P5 schools (I did not include SHU's win over Rutgers in this).

The teams that will make up next year's AAC (less UConn) are 10-21 against p5 schools.

Yep. These two leagues are equal.

 

[tzznandrew]

The Big East schools are 20-18 against P5 schools (I did not include SHU's win over Rutgers in this).

The teams that will make up next year's AAC (less UConn) are 10-21 against p5 schools.

Yep. These two leagues are equal.

Well, I think the BE is a better conference top to bottom this year. People here are more bullish on the conference than I think is justified, especially considering who is leaving.

But you can't keep taking out UConn of the AAC. It's irrelevant, and their inclusion is part of what makes the AAC somewhat viable.

Just do a BE and an AAC with current members this year. And then take out Lousiville and Rutgers, and add the new dregs. Otherwise, it's a wholly unfair comparison.

 

[Husky25]

Well, I think the BE is a better conference top to bottom this year. People here are more bullish on the conference than I think is justified, especially considering who is leaving.

But you can't keep taking out UConn of the AAC. It's irrelevant, and their inclusion is part of what makes the AAC somewhat viable.

Just do a BE and an AAC with current members this year. And then take out Lousiville and Rutgers, and add the new dregs. Otherwise, it's a wholly unfair comparison.

The only way his argument makes sense is to pull UConn out of the equation.