Thoughts on the Portal, NIL and expanded CFP world

[shizzle787]

It is your opinion. There is no evidence that a conference absorbing new schools results in more parity. It actually appears to result in less.

That's not my point. Regardless of the SEC/B1G adding new teams, I think with multiple spots for each of the major two leagues, kids won't necessarily choose Alabama or Ohio State if Florida and Wisconsin have a good chance to make the playoff as long as they finish near the bottom of the top-10.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If the "P2 WILL DOMINATE COLLEGE SPORTS" people are right, how come there is not a single Pac 12, ACC or Big 12 athletic program that has decided to disband or shut down or even de-emphasize athletics? If P2 domination is so obvious to everyone, and there is no other possible outcome, you would have thought that at least one school would have reached the same conclusion and packed it in. How come they haven't?

 

[shizzle787]

If the "P2 WILL DOMINATE COLLEGE SPORTS" people are right, how come there is not a single Pac 12, ACC or Big 12 athletic program that has decided to disband or shut down or even de-emphasize athletics? If P2 domination is so obvious to everyone, and there is no other possible outcome, you would have thought that at least one school would have reached the same conclusion and packed it in. How come they haven't?

People don't pack it in when they aren't on the highest level. They try to improve. You see it with realignment moves in basketball (BE adding Xavier, Creighton, and Butler). Also, having major college sports is a huge marketing boon even if you are not in the P2.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[History Geek]

...6) I don't know what Northwestern, Duke, Vanderbilt and Stanford will do. They have massive endowments and all the resources they need to compete with any program, but they think of their competition as Ivy League, New York University, University of Chicago and Rice, not Mississippi State, Minnesota and Arizona State. If I had to bet, I think the super-elite academic D1 programs will drop down a level or reorganize into a league with each other at some point...

I think UConn has a shot to be in a league like this. No, our academics are not at this level, but we are a highly respected public flagship that competes on the periphery with these schools for students (i.e. UConn is an academic/financial safety for kids whose first choice is one of these -- I teach seniors at a CT public high school, I know). I bet there are enough institutions like this to put together a nice league, maybe enough for an eastern league. Add Wake to that list, and perhaps us, BC, Syracuse, Rutgers (pains me to type), Pitt, Georgia Tech, Miami (I don't think they can compete with the highest football tier anymore). Maybe convince Villanova and Georgetown to invest in football at this level. I'd sign up for that in a heartbeat.

 

[DoctorWho85]

If the kid can make a ton of money, then I'm all for it. I still believe this will be a net neutral for football. We'll lose a top player here or there, but we can pick up a ton of P5 kids that want playing time immediately. Basketball will be able to poach other players.

 

[uconnfan68]

My point is that some players will move to the Pac-12, Big 12, ACC, or even top-end AAC or MWC schools but many will stay in the SEC and/or B1G as those leagues will have more spots in the field. A kid at Iowa is more likely to make the playoff than a kid at Arizona State as Iowa only have to be the 3rd best B1G team to get in the field; Arizona State likely has to win the Pac-12.

It’s about playing during the season, not simply sitting on the bench for a playoff team. Every team plays during the season.

 

[husky210]

I heard on the radio during a discussion on the portal and its effects that somewhere between 40 and 50% of the kids who hit the portal last year didn’t end up anywhere. They get stuck in a sort of portal limbo where they have to pay their own way in school but aren’t playing football for anyone.

I think eventually this thing is going to slow down where alot of those 40-50% kids just stick where they are.

 

[BRS24]

The transfer window coinciding with bowl season is as profoundly stupid as it sounds

Players are already incentivized to skip bowl games, and the NCAA’s new rule only makes it worse

deadspin.com

 

[shizzle787]

The transfer window coinciding with bowl season is as profoundly stupid as it sounds

Players are already incentivized to skip bowl games, and the NCAA’s new rule only makes it worse

deadspin.com

Bowls will eventually die. At least ones that aren't tied in with the playoff.

 

[ZachFan]

I'm thinking that a private chat room would have probably worked better, than this thread, for a couple of individuals.

 

[shizzle787]

I'm thinking that a private chat room would have probably worked better, than this thread, for a couple of individuals.

Welcome to the Boneyard.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Because XFL, USFL, Minor league baseball, and the G-League have such tremendous ratings, tv revenue and cache, of course the NBA and NFL would want to create their own minor league system.

 

[coachcap]

I think UConn has a shot to be in a league like this. No, our academics are not at this level, but we are a highly respected public flagship that competes on the periphery with these schools for students (i.e. UConn is an academic/financial safety for kids whose first choice is one of these -- I teach seniors at a CT public high school, I know). I bet there are enough institutions like this to put together a nice league, maybe enough for an eastern league. Add Wake to that list, and perhaps us, BC, Syracuse, Rutgers (pains me to type), Pitt, Georgia Tech, Miami (I don't think they can compete with the highest football tier anymore). Maybe convince Villanova and Georgetown to invest in football at this level. I'd sign up for that in a heartbeat.

Convincing Nova or Georgetown to invest at a FBS rate equals "Waiting for Godot". Been there, done that. Not interested.

 

[History Geek]

Convincing Nova or Georgetown to invest at a FBS rate equals "Waiting for Godot". Been there, done that. Not interested.

True, but if they change their minds I'd be OK with it.

 

[traitor71]

I think UConn has a shot to be in a league like this. No, our academics are not at this level, but we are a highly respected public flagship that competes on the periphery with these schools for students (i.e. UConn is an academic/financial safety for kids whose first choice is one of these -- I teach seniors at a CT public high school, I know). I bet there are enough institutions like this to put together a nice league, maybe enough for an eastern league. Add Wake to that list, and perhaps us, BC, Syracuse, Rutgers (pains me to type), Pitt, Georgia Tech, Miami (I don't think they can compete with the highest football tier anymore). Maybe convince Villanova and Georgetown to invest in football at this level. I'd sign up for that in a heartbeat.

Why would any of those teams want to move from where they are, unless there is some sort of total implosion of their leagues? I don't know about all of them, but isn't Rutgers getting 100 million for facilities? Miami just made an 80 million deal for a coach, and just announced a 100 million facilities project. These schools aren't going to spend the money just to leave.

An Eastern football league would have been a nice thing, but the window was missed a while ago unfortunately.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Why would any of those teams want to move from where they are, unless there is some sort of total implosion of their leagues? I don't know about all of them, but isn't Rutgers getting 100 million for facilities? Miami just made an 80 million deal for a coach, and just announced a 100 million facilities project. These schools aren't going to spend the money just to leave.

An Eastern football league would have been a nice thing, but the window was missed a while ago unfortunately.

The transition to a true minor league brings a lot of costs, and may not bring more revenue over the long term.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Because XFL, USFL, Minor league baseball, and the G-League have such tremendous ratings, tv revenue and cache, of course the NBA and NFL would want to create their own minor league system.

But you think college football and college basketball will be successful as a minor league?

 

[ConnHuskBask]

But you think college football and college basketball will be successful as a minor league?

No - I think most people root for their respective school or states laundry and why most people don't care about the Scranton Wilkes Barre Yankees or the Westchester Knicks but 13,000 people show up to Dayton University basketball games.

 

[History Geek]

Why would any of those teams want to move from where they are, unless there is some sort of total implosion of their leagues? I don't know about all of them, but isn't Rutgers getting 100 million for facilities? Miami just made an 80 million deal for a coach, and just announced a 100 million facilities project. These schools aren't going to spend the money just to leave.

An Eastern football league would have been a nice thing, but the window was missed a while ago unfortunately.

I think the possibility of implosions is strong, especially the ACC

 

[freescooter]

Convincing Nova or Georgetown to invest at a FBS rate equals "Waiting for Godot". Been there, done that. Not interested.

Agreed. I think if they could figure out how to do it Georgetown would be more interested in playing an Ivy League level schedule in all sports rather than going the other direction with football. Villanova is not interested either.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

They were talking about the challenges that Stanford has with the transfer portal on Sirius College Sports channel this morning. I could see the super-elite academic league happening at some point. There are ways that Stanford and Northwestern can compete with anyone, and there are ways that they can't.

It would be interesting to see what Notre Dame does. They don't want to be in a league with Minnesota or Florida State, but a big chunk of their alumni would like to be in a league with Northwestern and Stanford.

 

[TerryD]

They were talking about the challenges that Stanford has with the transfer portal on Sirius College Sports channel this morning. I could see the super-elite academic league happening at some point. There are ways that Stanford and Northwestern can compete with anyone, and there are ways that they can't.

It would be interesting to see what Notre Dame does. They don't want to be in a league with Minnesota or Florida State, but a big chunk of their alumni would like to be in a league with Northwestern and Stanford.

Sure. Just not in football.

ND is going to re-sign with NBC for a big raise and stay status quo otherwise unless/until the ACC implodes.

If that happens, UConn just might find itself in the same conference as ND, the Big East.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Looks like the SEC is shedding some talent. Hard to keep all those 4 and 5 star recruits happy when every other school can pay them too now.

 

[UConnJim]

I think we all agree that college sports are a business and the last 25 years have shown that it is a cutthroat business. Leaving a conference? Sure, no problem. Leaving schools behind? Sure, no problem. Offering money to a kid at a competing school? Sure, no problem. All of this means that there is loyalty to dollars and not to other schools (with some exceptions). For example, does Ohio St. care about Rutgers and does Rutgers benefit Ohio St. financially or athletically? No. Does Ohio St. care about Michigan? Yes as having a heated rival is good both financially and athletically.

In my mind this means all conferences are not that stable and I wouldn't be surprised if we see schools get kicked out of conferences in the future or conferences get reformed with lower value schools not getting a seat. Think this isn't plausible? Look at what happened in 1994 when the Big 8 and 4 of the schools from the SWC formed the Big 12 and left TCU, Houston, SMU, and Rice from the SWC behind. Do you think Texas cared that 4 schools were left behind? No.

Plus, NIL and the transfer portal are a problem for some schools. Do you think schools like Stanford and Northwestern can take a portal kid from a low level academic school? No. The portal is problematic for a number of FBS elite academic schools. Unless you are recruiting 4*s and 5*s, you will not be able to compete in college football with high school talent alone. And, NIL is problematic as well for academic schools and schools with smaller fan bases and support. Buckle up.