Thoughts on the Big10 vs. ACC Tues/Wed

[DefenseBB]

In looking over the week's schedule, I realized that this week the annual slate of games between these two conferences.
Wednesday, November 28
Illinois at Clemson
Virginia at Michigan State
Rutgers at Virginia Tech
Indiana at Wake Forest
Duke at Wisconsin

Thursday, November 29
Penn State at Florida State
Nebraska at Louisville
Georgia Tech at Maryland
Syracuse at Minnesota
Michigan at NC State
Pittsburgh at Northwestern
Iowa at Notre Dame
North Carolina at Ohio State
Miami at Purdue

The only interesting matchup that jumps at you is the Iowa/ND game on Thursday. Next is probably the Minnesota vs. Syracuse game and of mild importance to me is the Miami vs. Purdue game as it has Beatrice Mompremier vs. a team we just played.

Maryland has GaTech which is a bit disappointing in that I would have preferred to see them vs Louisville or ND.

Thoughts?

 

[oldude]

It’s difficult to project the BIG winning more than 1 or 2 of these inter conference matchups.

 

[triaddukefan]

My thoughts? Man.... if Duke loses to Wisconsin..... imma need something besides a bag over my head.

 

[Plebe]

My thoughts? Man.... if Duke loses to Wisconsin..... imma need something besides a bag over my head.

Would that be any worse than losing to Washington?

 

[triaddukefan]

NC State vs Michigan is mildly interesting for me. Michigan has an experienced post.... vs the NC State Freshman Post who is talented and from my city. NC State needs to win this game...... its their only non-conference foe of note. VPI vs Rutgers is interesting..... toughest game so far for the Hokies...... the little Mabrey vs her home state Flagship School. GaTech vs Maryland might be closer than people think. The Yellow Jackets play a physical and aggressive style... and they sure can ugly up a game. Maryland better be ready

 

[oldude]

My thoughts? Man.... if Duke loses to Wisconsin..... imma need something besides a bag over my head.

View attachment 36756

You could always wear this

Bing

 

[triaddukefan]

Would that be any worse than losing to Washington?

 

[Plebe]

It’s difficult to project the BIG winning more than 1 or 2 of these inter conference matchups.

I count three of these games where the Big 10 is favored:

• Maryland over Georgia Tech.
• Michigan State over Virginia.
• Northwestern over Pitt.

But a few of the others are more or less toss-ups:

• Illinois-Clemson.
• Indiana-Wake Forest.
• Duke-Wisconsin.

The other eight games, I'd have to say, look like ACC wins. Maybe Purdue has a chance at home vs. Miami, and Minnesota may have a fighting chance at home vs. Syracuse, but that would surprise me.

 

[triaddukefan]

I count three of these games where the Big 10 is favored:

• Maryland over Georgia Tech.
• Michigan State over Virginia.
• Northwestern over Pitt.

But a few of the others are more or less toss-ups:

• Illinois-Clemson.
• Indiana-Wake Forest.
• Duke-Wisconsin.

The other eight games, I'd have to say, look like ACC wins. Maybe Purdue has a chance at home vs. Miami, and Minnesota may have a fighting chance at home vs. Syracuse, but that would surprise me.

Indiana is gonna crush poor Wake Forest

 

[Plebe]

Indiana is gonna crush poor Wake Forest

Wake Forest looks really bad but I have no idea if Indiana is any better. They barely beat Milwaukee in their first game.

 

[shizam]

In looking over the week's schedule, I realized that this week the annual slate of games between these two conferences.
Wednesday, November 28
Illinois at Clemson
Virginia at Michigan State
Rutgers at Virginia Tech
Indiana at Wake Forest
Duke at Wisconsin

Thursday, November 29
Penn State at Florida State
Nebraska at Louisville
Georgia Tech at Maryland
Syracuse at Minnesota
Michigan at NC State
Pittsburgh at Northwestern
Iowa at Notre Dame
North Carolina at Ohio State
Miami at Purdue

The only interesting matchup that jumps at you is the Iowa/ND game on Thursday. Next is probably the Minnesota vs. Syracuse game and of mild importance to me is the Miami vs. Purdue game as it has Beatrice Mompremier vs. a team we just played.

Maryland has GaTech which is a bit disappointing in that I would have preferred to see them vs Louisville or ND.

Thoughts?

MD and Lville already played 2 years ago. The game Walz went nuts in postgame on his players and society in general (participation trophies). That whole thing was a big deflection because he was furious Brenda beat him again at home. She had the better players and team that day with Walker-Kimbrough, Brionna Jones and Destiny Slocum. No shame in losing to that team. He just couldn’t turn it off in the post game and went off on a rabbit trail when it was really about his disappointment in his players HE recruited implying dont work on their game hard enough. They lost because the other team had more talent and Senior leadership not his players were “losers”

 

[Orangutan]

Massey predictions:

ACC Favored

VT (70% chance of winning) over Rutgers by 7
Clemson (68%) over Illinois by 6
Duke (80%) over Wisconsin by 11
Louisville (95%) over Nebraska by 20
Notre Dame (94%) over Iowa by 18
Florida State (88%) over Penn State by 14
NC State (66%) over Michigan by 6

Big Ten Favored
Indiana (76%) over Wake by 9
Michigan State (70%) over Virginia by 7
Maryland (77%) over Georgia Tech by 9
Minnesota (51%) over Syracuse by 1
Ohio State (78%) over North Carolina by 9
Purdue (51%) over Miami by 1
Northwestern (84%) over Pitt by 12

If I recall correctly, Massey uses last season's endpoint as this year's starting point. I'm not sure the model has figured out yet that Ohio State is a completely different (and much worse) team.

I think that Syracuse, North Carolina, and Miami are all likely to win their games.

Massey ranks Iowa #24. ND has faced #14 DePaul, #21 Gonzaga, #18 Drake, and #10 Oregon State in their last 4. It won't be the narrative that ESPN is selling come Thursday, but the computer thinks this is ND's easiest game of the past two weeks.

 

[shizam]

Massey looks accurate. I agree w you that
Syracuse will run Minn out of the gym
Miami will beat Purdue
N Carolina beats Ohio State
Also ND should be 80% over Iowa not 94%
Indiana surprisingly good this year. Watch out for them.
ND holding up nicely. I didn’t realize they played that many ranked teams

 

[Plebe]

If I recall correctly, Massey uses last season's endpoint as this year's starting point. I'm not sure the model has figured out yet that Ohio State is a completely different (and much worse) team.

Bingo, and it's for this reason that Massey doesn't really become a good ranking system until mid-December or so.

 

[triaddukefan]

Its funny how a month and a knee-injury can do to your thinking. When I saw the original matchup.. I was thinking Wisconsin??? We got Wisconsin?? Now,..... im just hoping we can cover the spread.

 

[Undercovervol]

Notre Dame’s schedule very impressive so far; much more impressive than most teams I’d wager.

 

[Dillon77]

Wake Forest looks really bad but I have no idea if Indiana is any better. They barely beat Milwaukee in their first game.

Massey looks accurate. I agree w you that
Syracuse will run Minn out of the gym
Miami will beat Purdue
N Carolina beats Ohio State
Also ND should be 80% over Iowa not 94%
Indiana surprisingly good this year. Watch out for them.
ND holding up nicely. I didn’t realize they played that many ranked teams

Per Indiana, they're 5-0 so far and are being led by the transfers Brenna Wise (Pittsburgh) and Ali Patberg (Notre Dame), both of whom are averaging 15+ this year so far. Beat Florida before the holidays. BTW, Milwaukee is not that bad....they went 17-7 last year and made it to the 2nd round of the NIT, which Indiana won.

I've followed them a bit this year because I'm hoping for the best for Ali Patberg, who was bedeviled by injuries and illnesses when she was at ND. And I liked Wise at Pitt -- by far the best player there for two years.

The Syracuse-Minnesota match-up should be interesting. As I wrote somewhere else today, the Orange have been on a roll since that close loss to Oregon. I wonder if Coach Whelan has run into something like Coach Q's waves of "shoot, fast!"

And yes, ND will have played five straight teams that made the NCAAs before facing off against UConn (DePaul, Gonzaga, Drake, Oregon State and Iowa).

 

[Fightin Choke]

Per Indiana, they're 5-0 so far and are being led by the transfers Brenna Wise (Pittsburgh) and Ali Patberg (Notre Dame), both of whom are averaging 15+ this year so far. Beat Florida before the holidays. BTW, Milwaukee is not that bad....they went 17-7 last year and made it to the 2nd round of the NIT, which Indiana won.

I've followed them a bit this year because I'm hoping for the best for Ali Patberg, who was bedeviled by injuries and illnesses when she was at ND. And I liked Wise at Pitt -- by far the best player there for two years.

The Syracuse-Minnesota match-up should be interesting. As I wrote somewhere else today, the Orange have been on a roll since that close loss to Oregon. I wonder if Coach Whelan has run into something like Coach Q's waves of "shoot, fast!"

And yes, ND will have played five straight teams that made the NCAAs before facing off against UConn (DePaul, Gonzaga, Drake, Oregon State and Iowa).

When I read Plebe's post, I had thought that UW-Milwaukee wasn't that bad, but like you I was basing it on last season. Then I looked at their record THIS season, and it's not pretty (more below). Last season their final Massey ranking was 101st, which actually really isn't that good. Their record was 21-12 (not sure where you got 17-7, but they were 11-7 in the Horizon Conference). But this season they are 2-4 with losses against Indiana, Wisconsin, Fresno St., and St. Mary's and wins against Columbia and UC Riverside. Massey now has them ranked 155th.

That being said, I still believe that Indiana will defeat Wake Forest easily. My predictions from the challenge are:

Wednesday, November 28
Illinois at Clemson (I think Clemson is tougher this year and Illinois has been terrible.)
Virginia at Michigan State (Virginia has been terrible; the bad start for rookie head coach Tina Thompson continues)
Rutgers at Virginia Tech (I cannot help it. We Irish fans love our Mabreys)
Indiana at Wake Forest (Wake is abysmal, Indiana transfers helping make up for graduation losses.)
Duke at Wisconsin (Tsipis needs more time to build program, McCallie needs 1 more season to destroy it.)

Day One: ACC 3-2 winner

Thursday, November 29
Penn State at Florida State (Penn St has been declining quickly and FSU showed a bit of life against Iowa.)
Nebraska at Louisville (The loss of Diop won't affect this result. Note: I HATE ACL tears/)
Georgia Tech at Maryland (Maryland looked great against South Carolina, GTech looked bad against Houston but good against Georgia)
Syracuse at Minnesota (Gophers can score, but can they beat the press enough to win? No, they cannot.)
Michigan at NC State (Tough match-up, but I'll go with the home team.)
Pittsburgh at Northwestern (Pitt has improved, but Northwestern is still better. Ask Duke. Or Green Bay. Or Florida.)
Iowa at Notre Dame (ND is battle tested already. Iowa split their tough contests (beat WVU, lost to FSU). Just don't be caught looking forward to Sunday, Irish!)
North Carolina at Ohio State (tOSU has not yet jelled amd they're presently a hot mess. UNC is less messy.)
Miami at Purdue (I think Miami has played better, but neither has been great. Probably should go with the home team here, but maybe my ACC bias is showing.)

Day Two: ACC 7-2.

Overall ACC 10-4, but if you correct for my ACC bias, it's probably 9-5.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

Wednesday, November 28
Illinois at Clemson (I think Clemson is tougher this year and Illinois has been terrible.)
North Carolina at Ohio State (tOSU has not yet jelled amd they're presently a hot mess. UNC is less messy.)

I'm not sure if Illinois is terrible yet; a troubling loss to Sac State, but 4 other little sister wins. I agree Clemson is tougher, but I'll call that one a toss-up.

A most wonderful description of the UNC / tOSU game. Love it.

 

[shizam]

When I read Plebe's post, I had thought that UW-Milwaukee wasn't that bad, but like you I was basing it on last season. Then I looked at their record THIS season, and it's not pretty (more below). Last season their final Massey ranking was 101st, which actually really isn't that good. Their record was 21-12 (not sure where you got 17-7, but they were 11-7 in the Horizon Conference). But this season they are 2-4 with losses against Indiana, Wisconsin, Fresno St., and St. Mary's and wins against Columbia and UC Riverside. Massey now has them ranked 155th.

That being said, I still believe that Indiana will defeat Wake Forest easily. My predictions from the challenge are:

Wednesday, November 28
Illinois at Clemson (I think Clemson is tougher this year and Illinois has been terrible.)
Virginia at Michigan State (Virginia has been terrible; the bad start for rookie head coach Tina Thompson continues)
Rutgers at Virginia Tech (I cannot help it. We Irish fans love our Mabreys)
Indiana at Wake Forest (Wake is abysmal, Indiana transfers helping make up for graduation losses.)
Duke at Wisconsin (Tsipis needs more time to build program, McCallie needs 1 more season to destroy it.)

Day One: ACC 3-2 winner

Thursday, November 29
Penn State at Florida State (Penn St has been declining quickly and FSU showed a bit of life against Iowa.)
Nebraska at Louisville (The loss of Diop won't affect this result. Note: I HATE ACL tears/)
Georgia Tech at Maryland (Maryland looked great against South Carolina, GTech looked bad against Houston but good against Georgia)
Syracuse at Minnesota (Gophers can score, but can they beat the press enough to win? No, they cannot.)
Michigan at NC State (Tough match-up, but I'll go with the home team.)
Pittsburgh at Northwestern (Pitt has improved, but Northwestern is still better. Ask Duke. Or Green Bay. Or Florida.)
Iowa at Notre Dame (ND is battle tested already. Iowa split their tough contests (beat WVU, lost to FSU). Just don't be caught looking forward to Sunday, Irish!)
North Carolina at Ohio State (tOSU has not yet jelled amd they're presently a hot mess. UNC is less messy.)
Miami at Purdue (I think Miami has played better, but neither has been great. Probably should go with the home team here, but maybe my ACC bias is showing.)

Day Two: ACC 7-2.

Overall ACC 10-4, but if you correct for my ACC bias, it's probably 9-5.

Very tough news about Diop. It was going to take a lot of time to see how she would fit in at L’ville. Now she rehabs and goes overseas or possible 6th yr of eligibility. Very tough time for her.

 

[shizam]

I'm not sure if Illinois is terrible yet; a troubling loss to Sac State, but 4 other little sister wins. I agree Clemson is tougher, but I'll call that one a toss-up.

A most wonderful description of the UNC / tOSU game. Love it.

Way to go Sac State! I think they hold the NCAA record for made threes in a game. I’m sure they do for attempts. They almost always sub 5 at a time. Shift changes.

 

[TerpWomenFan]

Massey looks accurate. I agree w you that
Syracuse will run Minn out of the gym
Miami will beat Purdue
N Carolina beats Ohio State
Also ND should be 80% over Iowa not 94%
Indiana surprisingly good this year. Watch out for them.
ND holding up nicely. I didn’t realize they played that many ranked teams

Minnesota can be really good when Bell is playing her game. Probably the best game of the series.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Maryland has GaTech which is a bit disappointing in that I would have preferred to see them vs Louisville or ND.

No kidding. The Big 10 is lacking in top tier teams, you'd think they could've found a better opponent for their premier team.

 

[DefenseBB]

There were some really good comments on this and it has caused me to consider my initial thoughts of a complete shellacking by the ACC over the Big10, initially thinking 11-3.

I forgot about the Indiana transfers (and am hoping Patberg plays well for them!). The Massey data on it's calculations for early season match-ups was insightful and am surprised they haven't figured a way to revise it to consider the early games. No way should OSU be a 9 point favorite over a very surprising NC squad (much to my dismay!). I know OSU has only played 3 games (2 cancelled due to the fires in Cal) but come-on, to have them a 9 pt fav? Bizarre.
So from the Big 10, my money is on Indiana, Maryland and Michigan State. Syracuse has been playing very well and while Lindsey is 5-0, this team has played 4 home games against mid-majors and 1 road game at Xavier. Give me Syracuse on this with maybe the home crowd keeping it close for the Gophers. I also like Miami over Purdue due to solely going with the known star-Beatrice Mompremier vs. Purdue. Miami is 5-1 with some decent (not great wins) and I know Purdue put 2 players on the preseason Big10 (11 person squad???), in watching the UConn replay, I didn't see any superstars on Mompremier's level.

So my reassessment has it at 11-3, which isn't really different even though I know feel more informed. And like the "Fighting Choke", I may be biased towards the ACC.

 

[TerpWomenFan]

No kidding. The Big 10 is lacking in top tier teams, you'd think they could've found a better opponent for their premier team.

A few years ago Maryland thought Syracuse would be a mediocre opponent and they beat them by 20 points. By April they were playing UConn for the national championship.

 

[nwhoopfan]

A few years ago Maryland thought Syracuse would be a mediocre opponent and they beat them by 20 points. By April they were playing UConn for the national championship.

So....you're predicting Georgia Tech in the National Championship game this year? You heard it first here folks!

 

[ed4ourgirls]

With regard to the Massey rankings, it should be noted that Sagarin has not yet
begun the 2018-19 rankings. Much too early to be very reliable.

I think our armchair prognosticators are about as reliable.

 

[DefenseBB]

No kidding. The Big 10 is lacking in top tier teams, you'd think they could've found a better opponent for their premier team.

Shizam brought up the point that Louisville played MD 2 years ago so that's fair. Not sure if they played ND recently or NC State, Miami or FSU as all were stronger in the offseason when these matchups were determined. But as TerpWoman Fan just pointed out, may Georgia Tech at 5-1 and having beaten UGA is pretty good, I doubt it but maybe. Which leads to the next question-what the heck happened to UGA??? Maybe they righted the ship in the close loss to Maryland over the weekend but at 3-3, yikes as this was supposed to be a strong SEC season for them. But I digress, this is not about how weak the SEC is this year after MSU but about the ACC/Big10....

 

[nwhoopfan]

Is the idea to rotate opponents so eventually you play every team from the other conference? Or to try to make as many compelling matchups as possible? I can understand you don't want to have 2 teams play each other every year, but repeating opponents semi-regularly shouldn't be a problem in my mind. Maryland left the ACC, I'm sure they had some decent rivalries w/in the conference before they left. GT just doesn't jump out as the one ACC team everybody would really like to see the Terps face. Seems like a missed opportunity. Maybe GT is much better than expected, but it doesn't seem like much watch TV (if it was actually broadcast, not sure what coverage is like for any of these games).


It's apples and oranges, but in the men's ACC-Big 10 Challenge I'm certain North Carolina and Michigan St. have played quite a few times. UNC almost always gets one of the best teams from the Big.

 

[triaddukefan]

Is the idea to rotate opponents so eventually you play every team from the other conference? Or to try to make as many compelling matchups as possible? I can understand you don't want to have 2 teams play each other every year, but repeating opponents semi-regularly shouldn't be a problem in my mind. Maryland left the ACC, I'm sure they had some decent rivalries w/in the conference before they left. GT just doesn't jump out as the one ACC team everybody would really like to see the Terps face. Seems like a missed opportunity. Maybe GT is much better than expected, but it doesn't seem like much watch TV (if it was actually broadcast, not sure what coverage is like for any of these games).


It's apples and oranges, but in the men's ACC-Big 10 Challenge I'm certain North Carolina and Michigan St. have played quite a few times. UNC almost always gets one of the best teams from the Big.

I dont think you will see any of the triangle schools agree to play Maryland in Football, or men's or women's basketball in the regular season for the foreseeable future. There is a phrase I could use to describe Maryland...... but it would be deleted... and you might would see a Triaddukefan next to my name .
Needless to say there is no love lost between Tobacco Road and that Beltway school up north. So pretty much get used to Maryland playing Syracuse, Louisville, ND.... in these matchups.