It is an interesting assessment, I will say and not necessarily one I completely subscribe to so let me list my concerns:
From the top:
TCU has built it's foundation on landing highend transfers-there are 11 players on this team who played at 26 other schools. They have 3 players they recruited. That is not a recipe for sustainability in my view but time will tell. I will say the TCU and Mark Campbell seem to assimulate 1st year players quicker than many other high profile teams like Duke, Tennessee, NC State and a few others whose loyal BY fans keep touting it takes time to develop chemistry. Well at TCU, he has found the recipe! Again, how viable this is for long term success and against the true blue bloods of the sport remains to be seen. They really don't have any marquee games on their schedule.
Kenny Brooks, while a very good coach, I would not classify as a "National Player" on the WCBB scene. They had a generational player in Liz Kitley and a dynamo in Georgia Amoore and that team only achieved one Final Four and never made it past the second round in ANY other attempts. That is hardly a "National" presence.
Using players leaving as "a blip" of an excuse (which is what you are implying when giving a reason why the ACC is struggling "this year" versus a potentially larger sign. Most players found much better programs to go to. The players that came in were "bit" or supporting players on their previous teams with the exception of Pierre as you note. That said, I would say that Pierre has been less than advertised so perhaps the SEC end of year votes weren't as much of a slight and were more prescient than first thought....
Yes, FSU lost Latson, who had blossomed as a Seminole but they were hit hard by graduation as well. Brooke has a good recruiting class coming in and I think this program will find it's comfort level of 5th-8th in the conference. Georgia Tech had their coach actually retire (and she is back to announcing, nice job last night). GT was a bit of a wreck before Nell and even under Nell, I would not call them elite despite that win over UConn 3 years ago. VaTech was decimated by graduation losses on that final four team and the poaching of Strack and Amoore by Brooks. I did think Meg Duffy did a pretty good job last year (much to my own surprise) and am pleasantly surprised early in this season. I will be watching her game tonight against Florida with great interest.
As our SC fan stated "Clemson needs to show more grit and win something of note before any real statement of "on the rise" can be asserted. Losing by 11 to Louisville and 8 points to Mich State are interesting but not truly telling. Again, tonight's SEC challenge game vs. Alabama can give us a better perspective.
Of the Miami/UVA duo, I would say MIami is in a better situation. Yes, UVA has put money into that program but I am not sold on Coach Mox to lead them back to any type of prominance. They lost to UMBC this year so.....
I am not sure if this year is an outlier for the ACC or a symptom of seasons to come. They are clearly slotted as the 4th P4 conference well behind the other 3 and still way ahead of the Big East.
While I appreciate your ACC fandom, I am not quite sure you are completely objective. But it was a post that got me thinking.
Appreciate the thoughts and perspective. Just some things I thought about after reading your post...
I wasn't arguing that TCU's model is the model I'd choose to build with exactly, I agree that it has flaws. Revamping 80% of your roster or more every year seems flawed. Idk if that is what they will elect to continue to do or not, but you'd imagine some years things will fit nicely, and other years there will be issues making the pieces fit or chemistry work. Sort of like the ups and downs Calipari had at UK or Coach K had at Duke towards the end with going heavy on 1 and done types. But I do think if you have the funds to buy top end talent in the portal year after year like TCU seems to have, you will certainly be in the conversation and relevant. I'm not saying national titles or final fours regularly, but top 25 and in the mix. I'd also add that it's a lot easier to assimilate that transfer talent when you play the schedule they play. They've had 1 quality opponent and they won, and looked good doing it I thought. But those other teams you mentioned have certainly challenged themselves on a much bigger scale. If State had only played Tennessee to start the season and then played NCCU and A&T and the likes, we'd assume all was gravy in Raleigh too.
I think we are splitting hairs on Kenny Brooks. When I say national player I just mean that he had VT as a consistent top 20 team. You can certainly argue that's because of Kitley and Amoore, but he's also the one that brought those girls in. Now he has Kentucky swimming in similar waters and you can argue it's because he brought Amoore and Strack over and has done well in the portal and recruiting. That's all part of coaching. I'm just saying the ACC would be better today with him at VT than with him leaving. Amoore and Strack would still have been at VT last year and one would assume they would have been a top 15ish team, and probably would have another top 25ish roster this year had he remained in Blacksburg. I don't mean to insinuate he'd be hanging banners left and right.
I jumped the gun on assuming Clemson was on the rise. We'll see how their recruiting class plays out in the future, but the results on the court this year certainly suggest they are the same ol' Clemson as always. I also agree with your assessment about UVa. I had hopes for them this season, but it doesn't appear Mox gets the most out of her players. Disappointing for sure.
The question you bring up about is this a blip on the radar for the conference due to losing top end transfers as well as where the conference is slotted and the bigger picture I want to combine because I think they go together. I 100% agree with your assessment that this year the ACC slots in 4th behind the SEC, Big10 and Big12...and it's not particularly close. I'd argue that's not been the norm. Over the past 5 seasons if you look at teams represented in the Sweet 16 and compare conferences:
SEC has had 17
Big 10 has had 16
Big 12 has had 8
ACC has had 18
If you look at teams ranked in the top 25 to end the season over the last 5 years:
SEC 23
Big 10 23
Big 12 18
ACC 21
I'd say the ACC has been easily above the Big12 in recent years and on par with the Big10. Now is this season merely a blip, or a sign of things to come as you bring up? I think that goes back to the larger point about NIL and this new age of college athletics. Will schools in the ACC allocate rev share money to the WBB programs at the same rates as some other conferences? Will those fanbases in the ACC pony up to have competitive NIL funds so they can recruit and use the portal as needed to build competitive rosters? And perhaps even more importantly, will they have the money to retain top end talent to prevent being used as a minor league to other conferences? To me that's the crux of the whole deal. It's no longer about history and prestige or facilities or fan support...sure those things play "a" factor, but THE factor is NIL. Wake Forest has every bit the chance to be a player in WBB as Duke if their Athletic Department and fans decided they wanted to go in on WBB and dump money into it, they could do it and their job would be attractive to more coaches. A traditional power like ND or Stanford could easily fall off a cliff if they deemphasize WBB or decide they don't want to play that game. At least that's how I view it.
And just as a selfish aside, I wouldn't label Pierre a disappointment. I think it took her a minute to adjust to a different system, frankly she still is figuring it out, BUT she leads the nation in rebounds per game at 13.6 and she's had 6 double doubles already this season.
I'll fess up to having an ACC bias as you mentioned, but I try not to fan out over the ACC too much. I fully recognize the conference is bad this year. It's embarrassing how bad it's been. I also lack perspective in a lot of ways, while I'm a big sports fan I have only really started closely following WBB over the last 5ish years and I definitely watch and follow the ACC much more closely than any other conference. This forum has been a great place to gain a bit more of a national perspective and I appreciate the wbb knowledge and conversations here.
Enjoyed your post and points. Good conversation!
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