The View From Section 241 -- Duke

[AllHusky]

Here are some passing stats that surprised me. Comparing 2023 to 2022, UConn is throwing the ball more down field. 10 yards or more: 2022 24.7%, 2023: 44.4%. That is probably skewed since we have been behind in all 4 games this year and we won 6 games last year.

2022:
Throws 20 yards+: 13.5% (completed 20%)
10 to 19 yards: 11.2% (completed 34.5%)
0 to 9 yards: 43.2% (completed 67.9%)
behind LOS: 25.9% (completed 83.6%)

2023:
Throws 20 yards+: 13.3% (completed 16.7%)
10 to 19 yards: 31.1% (completed 31.1%)
0 to 9 yards: 30.0% (completed 63.0%)
behind LOS: 17.8% (completed 93.8%)

But, drops are a huge difference: Drop % 2022: 9.1%, 2023: 17.5%. You can't have that. Drop % Fagnano 18.2%, drop % Roberson 17.5% so it isn't the QB.

According to PFF, Roberson is graded much higher as a passer than Fagnano or what Zion was graded last year.

So maybe that stat(s) is what gives Mora hope??

 

[BlueandOG]

Here are some passing stats that surprised me. Comparing 2023 to 2022, UConn is throwing the ball more down field. 10 yards or more: 2022 24.7%, 2023: 44.4%. That is probably skewed since we have been behind in all 4 games this year and we won 6 games last year.

2022:
Throws 20 yards+: 13.5% (completed 20%)
10 to 19 yards: 11.2% (completed 34.5%)
0 to 9 yards: 43.2% (completed 67.9%)
behind LOS: 25.9% (completed 83.6%)

2023:
Throws 20 yards+: 13.3% (completed 16.7%)
10 to 19 yards: 31.1% (completed 31.1%)
0 to 9 yards: 30.0% (completed 63.0%)
behind LOS: 17.8% (completed 93.8%)

But, drops are a huge difference: Drop % 2022: 9.1%, 2023: 17.5%. You can't have that. Drop % Fagnano 18.2%, drop % Roberson 17.5% so it isn't the QB.

According to PFF, Roberson is graded much higher as a passer than Fagnano or what Zion was graded last year.

One stat counts: wins/loses.

 

[Duncan Idaho]

2, and 4 game stats are being compared to 13 game stats. IDK.

 

[UConnJim]

So maybe that stat(s) is what gives Mora hope??

Drops are just one part of the game, but if you were Mora and Charlton, you should have been pretty confident that your top receivers would be catching the ball based on prior performance.

Last year, UConn had 15 drops and so far this year, UConn has 14!

Look at the drops from the top receivers over the last 4 seasons:

Drop %

2023:
Buckman 14.3%. (2.4% at Delaware last year)
Porter 14.3%. (0.0% at New Mexico last year)
Ross 18.8%. (6.3% at UConn in 2019)
Joly 23.5%. (0.0% at UConn last year)

2022:
Joly 0.0%
Turner 5.1%
Flynn 16.7%
Clercius: 17.2%

2021:
Marion. 0.0%
Clercius 4.8%
Rose 10.0%
Turner 15.4%

2019:
Ardell Brown 3.6%
Thompkins 4.9%
Ross 6.3%
Rose 6.9%
Drayton. 8.7%

 

[UConnJim]

2, and 4 game stats are being compared to 13 game stats. IDK.

We have 14 drops in 4 games vs 15 drops last year through 13 games.

 

[KryHavok]

We have 14 drops in 4 games vs 15 drops last year through 13 games.

That’s a stinging stat. See the ball, catch the ball. I’m overly simplifying it, but this doesn’t need to be coached; this has to be ingrained in the player. Mora said recently “players gotta play”. Too many three and outs puts the onus time and again on the defense. Offense has to perform better, period.

 

[RedStickHusky]

More drops could be an indicator of higher accuracy... I mean if you're never on target, you'll never get a drop. Drops/completions are both secondary to yards and points though. I still think that our fundamental flaw is that we value ball security more than we value scoring. You can try to manage it, but you have to accept some risk to play modern, up-and-down the field, football. And if you're not playing that kind of football, you might as well write "kick me" on your jersey backs.

 

[Luna]

What I always liked about Zion Turner is that he is a game manager.. he does whatever it takes to win… I thought with a year under his belt he was going to win the job.. I thought he would beat out Roberson only because Roberson was coming off major knee surgery… i thought the Maine transfer would be a back up…man was I wrong

 

[Hoophound]

Maybe Zion throws a more catchable ball.

 

[UConnJim]

Maybe Zion throws a more catchable ball.

The drop % for both Fagnano and Roberson are about equal at 17% to 18%. Doesn't seem to be a QB problem. Also, if the pass is not catchable, it's not a drop.

Here is an odd stat that I would bet most here would not agree with. PFF rates Roberson's play this year as the #68 FBS QB, ahead of QB's like Quinn Ewers of Texas, Tanner Mordecai of Wisconsin, Kyler McCord of Ohio St.,... Georgia St.'s QB is ranked #9 and Duke's QB is ranked #15. Both the NC State QB and FIU QB are ranked below Roberson. NC State was a competitive game and we should have beat FIU.

 

[Hoophound]

The drop % for both Fagnano and Roberson are about equal at 17% to 18%. Doesn't seem to be a QB problem. Also, if the pass is not catchable, it's not a drop.

Here is an odd stat that I would bet most here would not agree with. PFF rates Roberson's play this year as the #68 FBS QB, ahead of QB's like Quinn Ewers of Texas, Tanner Mordecai of Wisconsin, Kyler McCord of Ohio St.,... Georgia St.'s QB is ranked #9 and Duke's QB is ranked #15. Both the NC State QB and FIU QB are ranked below Roberson. NC State was a competitive game and we should have beat FIU.

It may just be my rose colored memory, but I recall Zion throwing a nice spiral, that was on the slightly soft side. I've seen a lot of wobblers this year. We all know from playing catch with various people, some throw a ball that's nice to catch and others throw a wobbly ball or a fast ball that stings. Just a thought.

One point on the loss of RBs and receivers to the portal, Jim Mora specifically said in the preseason that we had improved at every position where we'd lost a transfer. Either he was duped or disingenuous.

 

[KryHavok]

One point on the loss of RBs and receivers to the portal, Jim Mora specifically said in the preseason that we had improved at every position where we'd lost a transfer. Either he was duped or disingenuous.

It was all lipstick on a pig. Net influx did not compensate for net efflux.

 

[ZooCougar]

What I always liked about Zion Turner is that he is a game manager.. he does whatever it takes to win… I thought with a year under his belt he was going to win the job.. I thought he would beat out Roberson only because Roberson was coming off major knee surgery… i thought the Maine transfer would be a back up…man was I wrong

Zion reads better. So he knows when to keep and when to give it to the Running Back. That alone would result in an improvement.

 

[businesslawyer]

It was all lipstick on a pig. Net influx did not compensate for net efflux.

Fully disagree (on the offseason outflux -- you can't blame him for pre season statements that assumed we weren't losing 2 of our 3 TBs). The difference between last year and this year is not based on less overall talent. Football is a team sport. Sometimes teams play over the collective ability of their players (as we probably did last year) and sometimes they play below it (as you're seeing now).

 

[sdb1989]

So maybe that stat(s) is what gives Mora hope??

Maybe…but Roberson doesn’t pose any threat to run

 

[Duncan Idaho]

We have 14 drops in 4 games vs 15 drops last year through 13 games.

The others Jim