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Ah, we meet again.
On one hand, it feels great to face a team again we beat already this season by 13. In that game, our defense was excellent, forcing Illinois, a team KenPom rates as the #1 most efficient offense in the nation, to score just 61 points, making just 42% of their 2PAs and 21% of their 3PAs.
By the way, here’s my initial scout from November with more in-depth looks at each individual player’s skill set.
On the other hand, this Illinois team is quite a bit different since we last played them in late November. Traditional underclassmen guards Mihailo Petrovic and Brandon Lee (combined for 29 minutes in our matchup) are no longer in the rotation while freshman Keaton Wagler has skyrocketed from an underrecruited freshman to an NBA Lottery pick and Illinois’ go-to point guard.
As a result, Illinois is leaning into their best eight players and are the tallest team in the nation, playing just one player shorter than 6’6 and even though size doesn’t usually equal skill, in mid-February, Illinois was rated with the most efficient offense in the history of KenPom.
What makes this team’s offense so efficient is that the group is incredibly talented, unselfish and excellent at decision making, but struggles to find consistent answers against teams with skilled one-to-one defenders [I’m looking at you, Silas] due to their lack of offensive creators. They are most dangerous when they hunt matchups, playing through ball-screen actions to seek size-advantage matchups, whether it's a bigger guy guarded by a guard, or a guard managing to out-quick a big. With that advantage in play, the goal is to either score or draw two defenders to create an open look for teammates. Clearly, UConn excelled at defending this system in November. If they can’t find any mismatches, they’re cooked.
Unless, Keaton Wagler plays hero ball. He was awful against us in the first matchup, but is averaging 20.2 points, 4.9 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game since moving to the point guard position on December 6th, while shooting 46 percent from the field, 44 percent from 3 and 82 percent from the line. He was ranked the #261 prospect of the ‘25 class, but is a top-ten NBA pick because he’s incredibly smart, has good handle and can make shots. He wasn’t the point guard when we first played Illinois, but they are now.
Outside of Wagler’s ascension to becoming probably the most impressive one-and-done riser in the history of the modern basketball era, there have been a few other changes to this team compared to our last matchup.
Firstly, Andrej Stojakovic has become almost a non-factor on the perimeter, instead becoming a stronger and creative finisher. Jake Davis moved up from the bottom of the bench to become a low-usage starter who finished the regular season with the highest efficiency rating in the nation with him being a low-mistake connector generating hockey assists and also being a fantastic floor-spacer. Ben Humrichous’ usage rate has also dropped this season and plays essentially the same role on offense as Davis, albeit playing the 3/4 while Davis is a 2/3 and they never share the floor, so expect one floor-spacing, crappy defending wing at all times.
On defense, Illinois has its flaws even though it’s above-average. There’s a lack of elite athleticism, but excellent length, so the frontcourt protects the rim well and makes it hard to get off good shots, but aside from the Ivisic twins swatting shots, the team does not generate turnovers and their lack of getting charged with fouls points more to the teams like of aggression on offense than their discipline, which is good. With the twins’ tag-team, they could pose a challenge for Reed, but Reed has been so damn good and he rose to the challenge against both Michigan State and Duke’s excellent frontcourt defenses. On the flip, Illinois’ guards/wings are pretty good with generating fouls, so the guys around Reed need to do their part to not leave him hanging.
With Silas more healthy this weekend than last, I’m hopeful for his assignment neutralizing the one-on-one skill set of Wagler, making Illinois struggle to create the mismatches they need for the offense to flow.
